The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[damianslaw]

It's basically guess work and in going for a relatively mild winter, he's gone for the safe bet. If I had to put my kneck on the line, I would have probably done the same

Yes two have gone for the safe option of a near average winter, but also saying possibly 'cold' - so if it does turn out to be cold they can say they did preety well - interesting how they haven't gone for possibly 'mild'. Most forecasts appear to be suggesting average or rather cold - with a great likelihood of it being colder than milder than average.

[feb1991blizzard]

WINTER 2011/2012 FORECAST

December - Coldish Zonality for the first week with blizzard conditions over the highest ground in Scotland but a chance of some slight to moderate accumulations possible down to low levels across some Western Inland areas but more probably in the far North, any significant accumulations for Northen England and North Wales likely to be reserved for the highest ground and then far from certain, some brief sleet or wet snow flakes possible as far south as the South Pennines but certainly no accumulations here, anywhere from the Midlands Southwards very unlikely to see any snow at all.

During the Second week dryer conditions are likely in the south as a ridge of high pressure tries to take charge but the timing is far from certain at this point and and i am very sceptical about any longjevity of the settled spell except perhaps for Southern most counties of England.

From around the 20th onwards i expect a return to very windy and wet conditions in Scotland and the Northern half of England with Western Scotland, North West England and North Wales most areas worst affected with this likely to turn to Snow at times although at low levels more likely to be rain, drier in Eastern Scotland and North East England but Still some heavy bands of rain at times making it across the pennines. Southern areas, particularly the South East may still hang on to some dry and bright weather with some frost and fog here.

Between Christmas and the New year sees the best opportunity of the winter so far for low level snow all the way down the east coast and in the South East as a Brief Northerly with Western areas becoming drier as high pressure quickly topples in.

CET 4.7c

RAINFALL - Significantly above average in the North and West, Slightly below average in the South and east.

JANUARY - First half Changeable with some wet and windy spells interspersed with some drier brighter spells with frost and freezing fog at times.

Second half getting progressively colder with a potent easterly delivering heavy Snowfall for the last week with London, the South east, eastern England particularly badly hit. Northern and Western areas drier and brighter but with some heavy Snow showers penetrating to the West at times too.

CET 3.3c

RAINFALL - Average

FEBRUARY - First half dry and exceptionally cold with some very low temperatures. Second half milder and wetter but not making up for the first half in terms of temerature or rainfall.

CET 3c

RAINFALL - Below average Northern and Western Areas, Well below average South Eastern Areas.

Edited November 30, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Roger J Smith]

Solar activity is no guarantee of mild weather. Here's a list of months that fell in a max-solar year.

Feb 1947

Jan 1979

Jan 1917

Jan 1830

and these months were during years very close to a solar max

Feb 1956

Jan 1940

Jan 1929

Feb 1895

Jan 1838

Jan 1814 (a very good analogue for the overall solar trend)

Jan 1780

Jan 1740

The reputation of solar activity is really based on the Maunder minimum and the overall cold aspect of the Dalton minimum periods. Otherwise there is almost no demonstrable correlation. I did notice in my research that CET winters tend to be mildest about 1-2 years before solar max. This was not a huge spike in the data but otherwise the derived average was rather invariable when compared to solar activity. The list above is not meant to say that solar peak gives a cold signal, rather, that it does not prevent one.

[summer blizzard]

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

This forecast will discuss three aspects, these are..

1. What the teleconnective profile of this winter is likely to be
   
2. What the teleconnective profile means for this winter
   
3. The conclusion, what is my forecast for the winter of 2012
   

The teleconnective profile of this winter

Below are the August-October analogues for the MEI, PDO and AO which in addition to the QBO are the main drivers of the northern hemisphere weather patterns. It should be noted that standardized QBO data only goes back as far as 1979.

PDO WINTER

2010

2001

1994

1970

1962

1952

1950

AO WINTER

2007

1985

1970

1967

1963

1954

MEI WINTER

2008

2000

1999

1998

1995

1975

1967

1961

1956

QBO WINTER

2008

2006

2004

2002

1999

1997

1995

1993

1990

1988

1985

Winter

2008**

1999**

1995**

1985**

1970**

1967**

Those are the August-October analogue matches. The analogues at the bottom are the years which matched more than one indices.

Using the analogues which matched more than one indices i then used the data to extrapolate the teleconnective profiles through the winter months..

La Nina..

2011 August-October average: -0.8

Anologue August-October average: -0.7

Strength ajustment needed: -0.1

December

2008: -0.6

1999: -1.2

1995: -0.6

1985: -0.3

1970: -1.2

1967: -0.4

Average: -0.7

Strength Ajusted: -0.8

January

2008: -0.7

1999: -1.2

1995: -0.6

1985: -0.3

1970: -1.2

1967: -0.6

Average: -0.8

Strength Ajusted: -0.9

February

2008: -0.7

1999: -1.2

1995: -0.6

1985: -0.2

1970: -1.5

1967: -0.7

Average: -0.8

Strength Ajusted: -0.9

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -0.9

PDO..

2011 August-October average: -1.6

Anologue August-October average: -0.8

Strength ajustment needed: -0.8

December

2008: -0.9

1999: -1.6

1995: +0.2

1985: +0.4

1970: -1.0

1967: -0.4

Average: -0.6

Strength Ajusted: -1.4

January

2008: -1.4

1999: -2

1995: +0.6

1985: +1.1

1970: -1.9

1967: -1.0

Average: -0.8

Strength Ajusted: -1.6

February

2008: -1.6

1999: -0.8

1995: +0.8

1985: +1.6

1970: -1.7

1967: -0.4

Average: -0.4

Strength Ajusted: -1.2

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -1.4

AO..

2011 August-October average: +0.1

Anologue August-October average: +0.2

Strength ajustment needed: -0.1

December

2008: +0.6

1999: +1

1995: -2.1

1985: -1.9

1970: -0.4

1967: -0.3

Average: -0.5

Strength Ajusted: -0.6

January

2008: +0.8

1999: +1.3

1995: -1.2

1985: -0.6

1970: -0.2

1967: -0.4

Average: 0

Strength Ajusted: -0.1

February

2008: -0.7

1999: +1.1

1995: +0.2

1985: -2.9

1970: -0.9

1967: -2.2

Average: -0.9

Strength Ajusted: -1

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -0.6

QBO.. (1970 and 1967 not available)

2011 August-October average: +0.3

Anologue August-October average: +1.3

Strength ajustment needed: -1

December

2008: +1.1

1999: +0.7

1995: -0.1

1985: +1

Average: +0.7

Strength Ajusted: -0.3

January

2008: +1

1999: +0.5

1995: -0.3

1985: +0.1

Average: +0.3

Strength Ajusted: -0.7

February

2008: +1.1

1999: +0.5

1995: -0.5

1985: +0.4

Average: +0.4

Strength Ajusted: -0.6

Winter Strength Ajusted Average: -0.5

While the QBO and AO do have January peaks and troughs, because of them maintaining negative values we can now draw some conclusions as to what winter will bring.

Strengthening La Nina

Strengthening -QBO

Strengthening -AO

Weakening -PDO

What does the teleconnective profile of this winter mean?

I have gone through the data sets in order to ascertain what the effects of the teleconnective profile would mean in relation to the CET against the 1971-2000 averages.

AO (-)

Strengthening

2001 - aba

1981 - aab

1965 - bbb

1964 - bba

1960 - abb

1951 - bbb

December: 50/50

January: 83% below average

February: 66% below average

MEI (-)

Strengthening

2009 - bbb

2008 - baa

2006 - bab

2000 - baa

1996 - bab

1985 - abb

1974 - baa

1971 - baa

1968 - bab

1963 - bbb

1962 - baa

1951 - bbb

December: 91% below average

January: 66% above average

February: 58% below average

QBO (-)

Strengthening

2010 - bbb

2001 - aba

1996 - bab

1994 - aab

1992 - bba

1989 - aaa

1987 - abb

1984 - abb

1982 - bba

1977 - bba

1968 - bab

1966 - bba

1963 - bbb

1954 - abb

1953 - bba

1952 - abb

December: 56% below average

January: 75% below average

February: 56% below average

PDO (-)

Weakening

2011 - bba

2008 - baa

2002 - baa

1999 - aaa

1991 - bbb

1976 - aaa

1974 - baa

1964 - bba

1962 - baa

1956 - abb

1951 - bbb

December: 72% below average

January: 54% above average

February: 72% above average

You can see from the above that strengthening negative values for the AO and QBO are very good for winter cold, with mixed results from the MEI and PDO. All teleconnective phases indicate a December below the 1971-2000 average.

From the teleconnective phases we will be in this winter, we can now draw analogues which match more than one indices.

2008** - baa

2001** - aba

1996** - bab

1974** - baa

1968** - bab

1964** - bba

1963** - bbb

1962** - baa

1951*** - bbb

Winter conclusions

Using the above analogues we can say that there is the following likelihood...

December - 90% below average

January - 50/50

February - 50/50 (due to winter teleconnective profiles supporting below average outcome (other than PDO), i will back a below average outcome.

My winter forecast is therefore..

December: 2.8C, 2.3C below average (range 1.2C to 4.9C)

January: 3.8C, 0.4C below average (range -2.1C to 6.6C)

February: 2.3C, 1.9C below average (range -0.7C to 3.7C)

Winter: 3C, 1.6C below average (range -0.5C to 5C)

Extras

Taking solar data into account then we see rising solar activity (in general) which lends weight to the analogues of 2001and 1968.

You can also see sea surface temperature anomalies below which show the classic -MEI, -PDO Pacific pattern although they do currently signify Atlantic troughing...

Links

http://www.esrl.noaa...es/printpage.pl

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/qbo.u30.index

http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table

http://www.esrl.noaa.../mei/table.html

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

http://www.esrl.noaa...tion/solar.data

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Note

Model output currently does not support my December forecast however December 2007 was the only one of my analogue set to feature an Atlantic trough but i was not confident of its response over Europe on that analogue, thus i opted to go with the general analogue set.

If i can get the general teleconnective trends and have the CET within my range then i will be pleased.

Edited November 30, 2011 by summer blizzard

[A Winter's Tale]

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

Brilliant and another forecast for a below average winter.

[Eugene]

CET Temperature 0.5c above normal. Precipitation 100% of the average.

Which averages are you using gavin?.... if 1981 to 2010 then you are going for 5.1C like me, i think you'll be very close.

Hope the rest of your winter forecast comes off too sounds like a pretty good winter for cold weather fans.

[Gavin P]

Fantastic work SB. I wish I knew enough about teleconnections to make an indepth forecast like that. Wow. :o

Solar activity is no guarantee of mild weather. Here's a list of months that fell in a max-solar year.

Feb 1947

Jan 1979

Jan 1917

Jan 1830

and these months were during years very close to a solar max

Feb 1956

Jan 1940

Jan 1929

Feb 1895

Jan 1838

Jan 1814 (a very good analogue for the overall solar trend)

Jan 1780

Jan 1740

The reputation of solar activity is really based on the Maunder minimum and the overall cold aspect of the Dalton minimum periods. Otherwise there is almost no demonstrable correlation. I did notice in my research that CET winters tend to be mildest about 1-2 years before solar max. This was not a huge spike in the data but otherwise the derived average was rather invariable when compared to solar activity. The list above is not meant to say that solar peak gives a cold signal, rather, that it does not prevent one.

I've always been lead to believe the important thing about solar max/min is not so much and max and mins per se, but the kind of max and mins within the cycle. For instance the minimum of cycle 23 was much longer and deeper than a normal min, so much more condusive to helping develop severe European winters.

Similar with maximums. The maximum of cycle 23 was very intense, hence the "write off" winters of the late 90's for cold.

So its really the strength/length of these cycles that counts in the end?

As the maximum of cycle 24 looks like being one of the weakest in the past 100 years, at no point should it on its own be enough to prevent cold winters (unlike the 90's when I think it DID play a big role in those write off winters) But of course all the other big drivers, such as ENSO and the PDO are still important factors in year to year variability.

Which averages are you using gavin?.... if 1981 to 2010 then you are going for 5.1C like me, i think you'll be very close.

Hope the rest of your winter forecast comes off too sounds like a pretty good winter for cold weather fans.

81-10

Edited December 1, 2011 by Gavin P

[Glacier Point]

Good effort SB, although I think your December forecast is wide of the mark given the stratospheric profile.

[AWD]

If their forecast is right, even if it does have a small bias to colder than average, it will be a disappointment for many people like us on here.

Just remember though, stealing the thoughts now from Brians' latest buzz on TWO which I totally agree with, a lot of the winters between 1992 and 2007 were mild, above or way above average winters! TWO winter forecast is for an average winter, meaning that snowfall across many parts of the UK is still quite likely!

He even says that he would be suprised if there wasn't at least one decent snowfall everywhere in the UK, including the south!

So whilst not expecting a winter like the last couple, that doesn't mean that most parts of the UK won't get snowfall, because, if his forecast verififes, they would!

[Coast]

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

Another great effort with lots of thought and supporting data, thank you SB. Again, like the others, I shall follow this as the Winter unfolds and we can see who came closest next year.

[VillagePlank]

My forecast, here, is going to plan ....

Edited December 1, 2011 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[The watcher]

I think many of the late November published forecasts are going to plan with the ones released early november and october falling short. What will really lessen the number of correct calls this early is what happens mid december. A Long Long way to go yet before we can assess who's going to be close, it's only the first day of winter.

[Andy_]

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

Superb forecasting there mate, well done Hope it works out for you

[summer blizzard]

Good effort SB, although I think your December forecast is wide of the mark given the stratospheric profile.

Thank you.

While there is always the chance of a swift change, i do feel that my December forecast is slightly flawed due to not taking the MJO into account (don't know enough about it really although i intend to for summer), the only analogue to feature an Atlantic Trough in my set was actually December 2007 although i did not support the ridging over Scandinavia that early. I think that my January and February forecasts are actually pretty close to your own although the trough being further west in January.

I also think that with my AO forecast going from -0.1 in January to -1 in February, this likely indicates an SSW.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think many of the late November published forecasts are going to plan with the ones released early november and october falling short. What will really lessen the number of correct calls this early is what happens mid december. A Long Long way to go yet before we can assess who's going to be close, it's only the first day of winter.

Mine was released in October and is still going to plan

I did underestimate the November CET though by quite a bit, but the pattern was pretty much bang on and still is!

[johnholmes]

Mine was released in October and is still going to plan

I did underestimate the November CET though by quite a bit, but the pattern was pretty much bang on and still is!

cannot find it can you give me the link please?

thanks

plea to admin and mods?

can we have a thread where actual forecasts only are placed-no other comments please. that way its easier than churning through 25 pages to find who forecast what and when?

many thanks

Edited December 1, 2011 by johnholmes

[A Winter's Tale]

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

.

It's good to see that your forecast has every month below average, 2 months below average by quite a bit aswell! But I'm interested to why you're going for such a below average December. The start will be chilly, the middle could be frosty/foggy with High Pressure and the ending could be anything. Just wondering.

Edited December 1, 2011 by A Winter's Tale

[summer blizzard]

It's good to see that your forecast has every month below average, 2 months below average by quite a bit aswell! But I'm interested to why you're going for such a below average December. The start will be chilly, the middle could be frosty/foggy with High Pressure and the ending could be anything. Just wondering.

Essentially i just used the analogue average for my temperature forecast although i did put the range as well. December is unlikely to be as cold as forecast but if it can be in the range, then i can be fairly happy and it is just finding a way to adjust for my next forecast.

December was the struggle, all evidence indicates a below average outcome however the current pattern does not.

If i can pick up the patterns in terms of which way the telleconnections go then i will be happy.

[Radiating Dendrite]

cannot find it can you give me the link please?

thanks

plea to admin and mods?

can we have a thread where actual forecasts only are placed-no other comments please. that way its easier than churning through 25 pages to find who forecast what and when?

many thanks

Hi John.

It is on the first page (under RJs I believe).

[johnholmes]

It's good to see that your forecast has every month below average, 2 months below average by quite a bit aswell! But I'm interested to why you're going for such a below average December. The start will be chilly, the middle could be frosty/foggy with High Pressure and the ending could be anything. Just wondering.

why quote the whole lot rather than the bit your refer to please?

Hi John.

It is on the first page (under RJs I believe).

ok I'll go and have a look - ta

[The watcher]

yes john, we need them all bunched together as some great ones are getting lost in the chat.

[johnholmes]

another idea mods

It might not be easy or convenient to do what I first suggested but it should be possible for one of you clever folk to do as watcher suggested?

Have them all together at the beginning of the thread along with the date of issue-please?

Edited December 1, 2011 by johnholmes

[Isolated Frost]

My forecast for the first third of December was cool, wet and potentially snowy, especially in the north- and I can't say i'm not pleased with that, but tbf it was the easiest part of the forecast as it was closest!! plenty of time for it to go something up...

[shedhead]

For anyone who is remotely interested... http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

[IanM]

If we must have these threads, can we limit the discussion to the forecast, it's merits and issues and not stray into becoming insulting or personal please. I think is will become the standard disclaimer every third post in these threads.

One thing for James, he doesn't charge for the full forecast, and it's out there for all to see, regardless of outcome and he deserves credit for that at the very least.