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reef

The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

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To be honest, I disagree that the two forecasts fit as AWT's snow and cold comes after mid-January whilst the worst ends at that point in Vogan's. No disrespect to either guys though.

Yeah, I think a lot of people think last winter was extremely cold throughout, remembering the cold December and forgetting mild February.

It depends where you live but for most people up here in Scotland it was described as the worst winter since 1962/1963 (and even that winter wasn't as bad as it was in England and Wales). But to have an exceptionally cold and record breaking month in winter is pretty significant and we did see snow after the new year on numerous occasions so I think people are entitled to say that the winter was harsh because it did include some of the worst winter weather in years although overall it was below average.

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TWO winter forecast is apparently out today, but just been on the site and can't find anything!

Leaving it late!

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TWO winter forecast is apparently out today, but just been on the site and can't find anything!

Leaving it late!

They usually post their daily updates at 10PMish, so maybe that's when it will be up?

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They usually post their daily updates at 10PMish, so maybe that's when it will be up?

Yes and hopefully it won't send us to bed with too many nightmares! :lol: I have a feeling that it won't be too dissimilar to Netweather's but we shall see.

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My Winter Forecast is Now Online, Please go to http://www.worcestershireweather.com

Pretty interesting. I also find it quite interesting as you think the easterly winds would bring the worst of snow to the South of the UK with Scotland being drier than average although I'm expect convection across the North Sea up and down the UK.

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Yes and hopefully it won't send us to bed with too many nightmares! :lol: I have a feeling that it won't be too dissimilar to Netweather's but we shall see.

What would be nightmare in your mind then? :lol:

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Pretty interesting. I also find it quite interesting as you think the easterly winds would bring the worst of snow to the South of the UK with Scotland being drier than average although I'm expect convection across the North Sea up and down the UK.

To be Honest in these situations the North is often drier with the lack of precip because there nearest the High, but I would expect in these situations Western Scotland would probably be bone dry.! Low pressure nudging up from the South is a Classic battle ground scenario and would give the South of which Ive shown greater than Normal precip and in most cases away from the South it would be snow. Thanks for commenting..... :good:

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Is it just my laptop, but I had the volume at 100% and still couldn't hear anything?

Hi, My Girlfriend has the same with her laptop!! The volume seems ok on my desktop, perhaps I need to be nearer the Mic, anyway you will still get the gist of my forecast from my summery!.... :good:

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What would be nightmare in your mind then? :lol:

Winter's 1988/89, 89/90 and 2006/07. I need to get out more! :lol:

To be Honest in these situations the North is often drier with the lack of precip because there nearest the High, but I would expect in these situations Western Scotland would probably be bone dry.! Low pressure nudging up from the South is a Classic battle ground scenario and would give the South of which Ive shown greater than Normal precip and in most cases away from the South it would be snow. Thanks for commenting..... :good:

So would you say that with this type of situation most places south of the M4 corridor would be more likely to get rain and sleet rather than snow?

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http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

You couldn't have written it!!!!!

December coldest month, January in the middle and February the mildest. Polar opposite to the netweather forecast. Although I like the sound of higher snow risk in N & E aswell as a cool December (hopefully some snow).

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http://theweatherout...eather-forecast

You couldn't have written it!!!!!

December coldest month, January in the middle and February the mildest. Polar opposite to the netweather forecast. Although I like the sound of higher snow risk in N & E aswell as a cool December (hopefully some snow).

Huh. I don't like that forecast at all. No scientific aspects discussed whatsoever. Little detail.

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Huh. I don't like that forecast at all. No scientific aspects discussed whatsoever. Little detail.

It's pretty poor as it's on safe ground. It has no extreme's and ironically December according to that forecast would be the coldest month. However I do like how they mention all areas will see snow and particulary in the North and East (the hints of something perhaps - maybe not!). But there's no real detail, no risk taking, and no evidence at all. Basically they don't have a clue and it has taken them to a few hours before winter to release. Also, the Netweather forecast was so much better because of the scientific methods and aspects to the winter, it has personal input from GP and it was more interesting and more reasonable.

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http://theweatherout...eather-forecast

You couldn't have written it!!!!!

December coldest month, January in the middle and February the mildest. Polar opposite to the netweather forecast. Although I like the sound of higher snow risk in N & E aswell as a cool December (hopefully some snow).

Not a bad sounding forecast, although I would rather Netweather's turned out to be closer to the mark with the cold February coming off. This forecast from TWO would have gone down very well this time three years ago and they don't have a bad record for LRF's.

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It's pretty poor as it's on safe ground. It has no extreme's and ironically December according to that forecast would be the coldest month. However I do like how they mention all areas will see snow and particulary in the North and East (the hints of something perhaps - maybe not!). But there's no real detail, no risk taking, and no evidence at all. Basically they don't have a clue and it has taken them to a few hours before winter to release. Also, the Netweather forecast was so much better because of the scientific methods and aspects to the winter, it has personal input from GP and it was more interesting and more reasonable.

It's basically guess work and in going for a relatively mild winter, he's gone for the safe bet. If I had to put my kneck on the line, I would have probably done the same :)

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Winter's 1988/89, 89/90 and 2006/07. I need to get out more! :lol:

So would you say that with this type of situation most places south of the M4 corridor would be more likely to get rain and sleet rather than snow?

Hi, this depends on a lot on how deep the cold is from the East. Most years if we get this set up the South of the country, will get rain, but if there is enough deep cold across the South which I think there wil be from this set up there will be snow on the beaches along the SouthCoast.!!! :good:

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I think if we put AWT's forecast detailing the severity of snow and cold with Mr Rampling's forecast which has the scientific analysis we got ourselves a good forecast.

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It's pretty poor as it's on safe ground. It has no extreme's and ironically December according to that forecast would be the coldest month. However I do like how they mention all areas will see snow and particulary in the North and East (the hints of something perhaps - maybe not!). But there's no real detail, no risk taking, and no evidence at all. Basically they don't have a clue and it has taken them to a few hours before winter to release. Also, the Netweather forecast was so much better because of the scientific methods and aspects to the winter, it has personal input from GP and it was more interesting and more reasonable.

TWO do not go into too much detail with their LRF's and never have done. However saying that they did discuss their methods in their initial winter thoughts back in October. I think they like to keep their forecasts as straightforward as possible and it's down to personal preference as to which is better. I personally prefer GP's format with his personal input and scientific reasoning but on the other hand others may prefer TWO's more simple approach.

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If their forecast is right, even if it does have a small bias to colder than average, it will be a disappointment for many people like us on here.

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Hi, this depends on a lot on how deep the cold is from the East. Most years if we get this set up the South of the country, will get rain, but if there is enough deep cold across the South which I think there wil be from this set up there will be snow on the beaches along the SouthCoast.!!! :good:

Ok, thanks. Sounds good to me! :good:

If their forecast is right, even if it does have a small bias to colder than average, it will be a disappointment for many people like us on here.

It would only be disappointing because we have been rather spoilt during the last three years. If the forecast does come off, there will still be some interesting times ahead and compared to the stinkers of 88/89, 89/90 and more recently 06/07 and 07/08, Winter 2011/12 will be really rather good!

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It would only be disappointing because we have been rather spoilt during the last three years. If the forecast does come off, there will still be some interesting times ahead and compared to the stinkers of 88/89, 89/90 and more recently 06/07 and 07/08, Winter 2011/12 will be really rather good!

True about us being spoilt! Although I was very surprised at the contrast between other forecasts such as Mr Rampling's, with TWO predicting February as the mildest month.

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Winter Forecast 2011-12

Well a little later than ideal, I want to set out my thoughts briefly for the coming winter. Recent winters have seen much colder weather than we had become used to during the lengthy period that we know by a phrase that is, ludicrously, morphed into something else when typed.

I believe that the principal cause of the colder weather in recent winters was low solar activity, hence less energy in the system and a more favourable Stratospheric profile together with less predictable NAO behaviour which may have been caused principally by the solar activity factor.

What lies ahead for this winter ? Well certainly something more akin to the winters seen before 2008. Already we have seen a characteristic cooling of the Stratosphere leading to a strongly zonal set-up. As we can see from the models, a fast moving and progressive set-up is the order of the day, and this will lead to average to mild conditions for most during December with occasional colder spells for the North, these mostly occuring before the middle of the month. A dry and mild Christmas is in store, with the Azores High ridging close to Southern England. Rainfall considerably above aveage in the North and West and near to slightly above in the South and East. CET in the region of 5.25 to 5.75.

As much as you correctly depict that low solar activity may have been an influence in the past winters colder weather, we are still in a fairly low solar activity phase for this winter, on a level with around 2004/2005 (in a declining Solar Cycle 23).

cycl23_24.gif

I think that for the Winter 2011-2012 period we will still be in enough of low period of solar activity for the stratosphere to express variability, and i don't really see a winter long cold stratospheric event. I'm sure anyone on the stratosphere temperature watch thread would agree too...

And i still also don't think some people understand that there is a lag effect involved in solar activity, and weather patterns on Earth.

Correct me if i'm wrong though this is just my opinion :)

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