The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[Staffordshire]

Heres my forecast which i posted back on 5th spetember in the autumn thread. I havent been too far off the mark really i called for a mild spell late sept-oct and well, it was a bit more than mild but still... Anyway here it is.

Okay so my autumn/ winter forecast (for what it's worth).

Just a breif forecast no fancy details.

September,

I see the unseteled theme continuing, with NW Scotland bearing the brunt of the rain this lasting untill around the third week where high pressure may make a breif return to settle things down, and give Scotland a much needed break from the rain.

October,

I think the first week of this month we could see some mild temperatures in the south but some showery weather further north. The Atlantic will try and show it's hand again finally breaking through in the second week introducing rain initially to the NW but affecting all areas towards the end of the month.

November,

I see high pressure establishing itself to the north, introducing some wintery weather to the highlands of Scotland. With high pressure to the south this will guard LP systems to the north maybe creating some blizzard conditions in the Scottish highlands. By the third week I see a Ne'rly deveolping bringing wintry showers to the NE before spreading to the rest of the country. With the HP to our south disapeating the country could see some very cold night time temperatures with the showers making there way further inland as the month comes to an end.

December,

I think this could be a stormy month with plenty of LP systems coming in off the atlnatic meeting the cold air and batteling it out over Northern

and western areas. This could be a very snowy time for NI. However the atlantic will win the battle towards the Christmas period and we will see a significant warm up. Possible flooding in areas that continue to have rain.

By no means am I a profesional forecaster but this is how I see it panning out.

[Liam J]

I think some of the forecasts issued will need drastically altered after hearing GP's thoughts on the current state of things as they stand.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Liam J

[kold weather]

Right I'll make a little punt and keep it nice and boring:

December 4.7C, cold through upper blocking rather then true cold conditions, very mild pattern for the first half balanced out by fairly intense anticyclonic cold through to Xmas! Sorta similar to Dec 2006.

January 3.2C, a mixed month but colder overall, very dry with probably only minimal snow chances, maybe quite E/SE dominated.

Feb 4.4C A tough one temperature wise, probably close to average and much wetter then the previous two months. Best chance of snow for quite a few due to the more active pattern!

Sorry its quite a boring forecast overall, don't think we'll see anything too impressive, if your snow lover think Feb probably has the best chance...even if it does turn out to actually be only average in temp.

[ZONE 51]

A briefing on what il be looking at for my winter forecast 2011/12

-

posted below on 17th october 2011(winter thread) - forecast preview

Winter forecast preview:

Factors:

•ENSO(La-Nina)

•PDO

•QBO

•Watching AO/NAO

•Solar Activity

•Volcanic dusts delayed atmospheric effects

•Ocean temperatures

•Jet stream

Outlook: November - early month, mild spells with gales widespread, mid month cold and snowy from the northeast after a northerly this producing our first widespread snowfall, end of the month seeing a milder period before high pressure leads us up into a cold and frosty December, eventually snowfall becomes widespread from the northeast into the first and second week , i expect a significant spell of snowfall during this period, this to affect most areas that see most snow from northeasterlys, i see the potential for at least one storm from the atlantic during this month, hitting the northwest, into January and lows crossing France could bring snowfall to southern areas, while high pressure sits over areas further north.

Winter 2011/12:•below average temperatures

•less widespread rainfall

•drier then average

•well above average widespread snowfall

•higher risk of blizzards in january as atlantic fires up

•more high pressure than normal early winter

•disruptive widespread snow events - even into inland southeast England

•more frost and fog than normal due to high pressure and snowfall events

•overall i predict a very cold and snowy winter, affecting all areas, many signifIcant and disruptive snowfall events throughout winter, i expect mid november to be the first period of cold and snow for many areas especially the east.

•late winter seeing more snowy battleground situations then last winter

•cold conditions slower to move away and continuing into late january, i expect february to be mild periods but with cold spells, spring warmth to come much later, i dont see a quick warm up, february could be a snowy month depends on how active the atlantic becomes and if it brings in milder air faster, although i think a quite atlantic to end winter.

ESS

note - I would not mention november in a winter forecast thread unless i expect snowfall, signals are indicating a mild period but i am sticking by a cold end with snow from the northeast, as i expect the milder atlantic flow to not dominate, although it could do but at this stage i dont expect it to.

Edited October 26, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think some of the forecasts issued will need drastically altered after hearing GP's thoughts on the current state of things as they stand.

Well I am sticking by my Forecast

GP seems to actually back up some of my forecast, especially the Scandi high, though our timings are different, as I believe we will see this in January, with a more mobile February.

It is all just fun If we only listened to what GP said then this forum would be pretty boring with all the forecasts exactly the same. As we saw in Summer, teleconnections are difficult beasts to tame and can bite you on the bum

[shedhead]

I think some of the forecasts issued will need drastically altered after hearing GP's thoughts on the current state of things as they stand.

If you haven't already done so, I suggest you also watch the video from GP explaining how his Summer forecast went wrong to a large extent. Coolest for 18 years, against his

shades of 76 prediction pretty much says it all regarding the reliability of teleconnective forecasting and pattern matching. That's not to say he'll be wrong this Winter, especially

in light of the fact he was very accurate last year regarding the overall make up, but even within his presentation he talks about and clearly explains there are conflicting signals re

this season... so very little if nothing is written in stone at this stage.

Edited October 26, 2011 by shedhead

[Radiating Dendrite]

If you haven't already done so, I suggest you also watch the video from GP explaining how his Summer forecast went wrong to a large extent. Coolest for 18 years, against his

shades of 76 prediction pretty much says it all regarding the reliability of teleconnective forecasting and pattern matching. That's not to say he'll be wrong this Winter, especially

in light of the fact he was very accurate last year regarding the overall make up, but even within his presentation he talks about and clearly explains there are conflicting signals re

this season... so very little if nothing is written in stone at this stage.

I found it quite funny that "parts of the Midlands has their driest summer since 1976".

So shades of 76' was not completely wrong!

[shedhead]

I found it quite funny that "parts of the Midlands has their driest summer since 1976".

So shades of 76' was not completely wrong!

I laughed at that too.... just had to get 76 mentioned didn't he

[penicuikblizz]

Has anyone got a link for GPs winter forecast?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Has anyone got a link for GPs winter forecast?

It is on the home page. It is also a couple of pages back in this thread!

[Paul]

It's not the winter forecast, it's a preview of his early thoughts - and as has been said, it's linked on the homepage, in this thread and in big red bars beneath the first post of every page!

But just in case:

http://www.netweathe...ghts-2011;sess=

Full winter forecast will be issued in November

[EML Network]

Nice to see GP backing up my own forecast, I said FEB was likely to see a mojor cold spell for the first half of the month in any case, with the UK sandwiched between 2 areas of High Pressure, so thanks GP for backing up my own forecast which you can read on page one of this topic.

That being said it's not Feb yet..)

[D.B.]

Long range forecasting should be banned.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Long range forecasting should be banned.

Oh dear, another spammer.

Why should it be banned?

[chionomaniac]

Long range forecasting should be banned.

Not as quickly as you should!

[shedhead]

Not as quickly as you should!

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring LRF's more into the mainstream.

Edited October 26, 2011 by shedhead

[Radiating Dendrite]

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring them more into the mainstream.

I think it is the fact that he does not give any reason for his opinion.

Also it was his first post and he then vanished, clearly just a WUM if you ask me.

[chionomaniac]

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring them more into the mainstream.

I recognise a troll when I can see one. It is like trying to ban the development of science.

[ITSY]

early forecast from me:

Mild, occassionay very mild November - with above average precipitation for Western parts (inc. N.Ireland) and Scotland. Eastern parts likely to be dryer than normal - but won't rule out a few severe spells of wet and windy weather; it is november. Any November snow wil be confined to the Highlands of Scotland (as is the case now) and very ocassionaly the Northern hills of England - but nothing too serious.

December, I expect, will be colder than November - but still above average overall. I'm going with a tussle between a developing European/Scandi high and various Atlantic lows. This could potentially deliver the occassional bit and piece of low level snow - but certainly nothing that compares to December 2010 - or even December 2009, when some parts of the south had a White Christmas. Rainfall therefore expected to be similar to that of November - concentrated in Western and Northern parts, though not exclusively so, with other areas seeing either average or below average rainfall.

January 2012 becomes colder IMO, high pressure being the largest reason. I expect cold nights and mildish days, at least to begin with, eventually turning into cold days as well. Expecting an average month nationwide but colder than average for parts of Scotland and the North. Less rain and certainly dryer than either of the two previous months. What rainfall there is though becomes increasingly likely to fall as snow over all northern elevations - and as the month progresses, and the high pressure begins to act as more of a blocking high to either our NW or NE, the chances of more widespread snow increases. Not a month to remember, I would suggest, but an interesting period of weather - fluctuating from Mild to Cold as the general theme.

February is perhaps the best chance of that snowmeggedon that everyone seems to be after. I believe this will be a cold month - the only below average month, perhaps akin to that of Feb 2009, where in cambridgeshire for instance, we had 17 days of lying snow and 7 days of falling snow in a row - which remains the longest period of snowfall I have ever had in the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average overall - though it won't seem snow because of increasing snow depths - which obviously need only a tenth of rainfall equivalent to seem as bad.

Overall I predict an average winter - which, depending on the severity of either December warmth or February Cold, could swing either way. The theme is one of warmth to Cold. Rainfall is expected to be below average for most in the South and East - and increasing to average and then above average the further north and west one goes.

This is based on solar activity, arctic Ice, GLAM (as explained in the netweather official video from Stuart), current activity, sea temperatures and a combination of other available forecasts.

Not saying this is what will happen, but i wanted my first ever official pop.

ps i'll update that again in late November to include only the actual Winter months. I expect some changes , but with the general theme to remain.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

early forecast from me:

Mild, occassionay very mild November - with above average precipitation for Western parts (inc. N.Ireland) and Scotland. Eastern parts likely to be dryer than normal - but won't rule out a few severe spells of wet and windy weather; it is november. Any November snow wil be confined to the Highlands of Scotland (as is the case now) and very ocassionaly the Northern hills of England - but nothing too serious.

December, I expect, will be colder than November - but still above average overall. I'm going with a tussle between a developing European/Scandi high and various Atlantic lows. This could potentially deliver the occassional bit and piece of low level snow - but certainly nothing that compares to December 2010 - or even December 2009, when some parts of the south had a White Christmas. Rainfall therefore expected to be similar to that of November - concentrated in Western and Northern parts, though not exclusively so, with other areas seeing either average or below average rainfall.

January 2012 becomes colder IMO, high pressure being the largest reason. I expect cold nights and mildish days, at least to begin with, eventually turning into cold days as well. Expecting an average month nationwide but colder than average for parts of Scotland and the North. Less rain and certainly dryer than either of the two previous months. What rainfall there is though becomes increasingly likely to fall as snow over all northern elevations - and as the month progresses, and the high pressure begins to act as more of a blocking high to either our NW or NE, the chances of more widespread snow increases. Not a month to remember, I would suggest, but an interesting period of weather - fluctuating from Mild to Cold as the general theme.

February is perhaps the best chance of that snowmeggedon that everyone seems to be after. I believe this will be a cold month - the only below average month, perhaps akin to that of Feb 2009, where in cambridgeshire for instance, we had 17 days of lying snow and 7 days of falling snow in a row - which remains the longest period of snowfall I have ever had in the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average overall - though it won't seem snow because of increasing snow depths - which obviously need only a tenth of rainfall equivalent to seem as bad.

Overall I predict an average winter - which, depending on the severity of either December warmth or February Cold, could swing either way. The theme is one of warmth to Cold. Rainfall is expected to be below average for most in the South and East - and increasing to average and then above average the further north and west one goes.

This is based on solar activity, arctic Ice, GLAM (as explained in the netweather official video from Stuart), current activity, sea temperatures and a combination of other available forecasts.

Not saying this is what will happen, but i wanted my first ever official pop.

A very interesting read there mate, only time will tell how accurate it is of course but I congratulate you on having a go. An average winter would suit most on here, I think if it wasn't for last December's record breaking cold peoples expectations might be a little lower, I know mine would be lol

[D.B.]

Why should it be banned?

I think long range forecasting is irrelevant and useless. I have never seen the point trying to predict long range forecasts with fancy computer models and eclectic research, when a majority of the time it's unaccurate. I really hope winter 2011/2012 brings record-breaking snowfall, followed by a cold and miserable summer. Better stock up on your kleenex girls.

[cyclonic happiness]

I think long range forecasting is irrelevant and useless. I have never seen the point trying to predict long range forecasts with fancy computer models and eclectic research, when a majority of the time it's unaccurate. I really hope winter 2011/2012 brings record-breaking snowfall, followed by a cold and miserable summer. Better stock up on your kleenex girls.

Best close this thread then shall we? or we could just talk about it (forum)?

[Snowstorm1]

I think long range forecasting is irrelevant and useless. I have never seen the point trying to predict long range forecasts with fancy computer models and eclectic research, when a majority of the time it's unaccurate. I really hope winter 2011/2012 brings record-breaking snowfall, followed by a cold and miserable summer. Better stock up on your kleenex girls.

Well IGNORE it then? And I have the same hopes for winter as you

Edited October 26, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[feb1991blizzard]

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring LRF's more into the mainstream.

The fact that very many people have little confidence in them is not the point, if they should be banned then how many other things would he want banned. If someone is gullable enough to go out and buy winter clothes, shovels and a new central heating system because a couple of tin pot organisations release a forecast in June saying we are going to have a mini ice age in January then that is their problem and if the met office are confident enough to advise the government then why should the forecast not be released to the public - the very people that the government will advise based on the forecast. As long as people realise that the caveat is and probably always will be for my lifetime is that LRFs should only be used as a guide and are based on probability, As the BBC monthly update says at the bottom 'Forecasting beyond a week stretches even the most experienced meteorologist'.

[johnholmes]

if the met office are confident enough to advise the government then why should the forecast not be released to the public - the very people that the government will advise based on the forecast. As long as people realise that the caveat is and probably always will be for my lifetime is that LRFs should only be used as a guide and are based on probability, As the BBC monthly update says at the bottom 'Forecasting beyond a week stretches even the most experienced meteorologist'.

do we know just what, even roughly, what the Met O advice to the government was, assuming that they actually have done this?

anyone able to help please?