The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[P-M]

http://www.weatherlo...st/?page_id=942

Thanks Coast

[Nick B]

It doesn't necessarily mean much, actually, in that it is rather vague about the coming month or so, and seems rather speculative. It talks about the fact that the profile in terms of Sea Surface Temperatures alone would support a Greenland block setting up (and that it could happen quite quickly); for us in the UK this then increases the likelihood substantially of our weather arriving from the East and North East, however, it's only one factor. We would only really benefit if we could tap into a nice cold pool.

Joe B had some good forecasts, but as seasoned posters here wil tell you, he's had his busts in the past too. Has he perhaps over-hyped this time?

I found the reduced strength La Nina interesting, because it contradicts what I had previously read, which was that were were back in moderate La Nina ENSO conditions. How might it affect our winter if now weakening already? - not sure...

[georgiedre]

http://www.weatherlo...orecast/?p=1452

hope this helps

soz i was to slow lol

Edited November 23, 2011 by georgiedre

[P-M]

Cheers georgiedre. Just read the sample for the LRF it confused me - maybe it's not accurate because it's a sample? It just appears to contradict itself..

Issued: 31^st October, 2011 (Third Edition - update by 1^st Dec’ 2011)

Supporting Evidence from the Blocking & Jet-Stream Interaction Model

Blocking Index: 7.3/10.0 (upper third on scale)

October has seen a steady decrease in the frequency of high pressure blocking patterns over the British Isles. Furthermore, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has remained largely positive and has not shifted into the negative state as anticipated in the previous forecast. There are subtle indications from extremes of wintry weather over the East Coast of the USA that signals a sharp transition to colder weather by the middle of November. The current atmospheric signal indicates that we are in an anti-phase period of cyclonic activity, rather than high pressure domination that is unstable and is not likely to last throughout the winter. The current weather in Eastern Europe and Russia are hinting at an easterly airflow, which may establish by the beginning of December. The weather pattern shows similarities to the situation experienced during late November 2009-10, with the current sea surface temperature (SST) signal indicative of a milder and wetter weather that is liable to an abrupt cold shift.

General Overview:

During the winter 2011-12 season, temperatures are likely to be above or well above average for much of the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland with an anomaly of +1.0 + 1.5ºC (+1.7 + 2.6ºF). Much of this warm anomaly is due to a strong climate signal in the North Atlantic Ocean. As a result, the energy required for heating a household or work-place is likely to be below average with an anomaly of -9 + 9%, significant lower than the 1961 – 1990 average. Since land surface temperatures have slowly been increasing over the British Isles, this represents an average winter from the base period of 2005 to 2010. A combination of below average storminess and higher temperatures indicate well below average snow day events across much the UK and Ireland, with an anomaly of -17%. These calculations were achieved using the SnowCast predictions at Weather Logistics UK

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

By the lack of updated forecasts I can only assume we are in for a bonanza next week!

[sebastiaan1973]

Weather Services International Expects Mildest European Winter since 2007-08

Coldest Winter Temperatures Expected across France and Iberia

Andover, MA, November 21, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (December-February) to average lower than normal across France and Iberia with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere, most notably across the Nordic region.

“So far, November has clearly been quite mild across most of Europe. While no immediate change to this pattern is expected, we do foresee a trend towards colder temperatures across western Europe and the UK in December,†said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The winter pattern will be dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the last couple of years, a strong negative phase of the NAO has been dominant, which has resulted in very cold winters. It does not appear that this extreme negative NAO phase will occur again this winter, which, we think, will result in a much warmer winter. We still feel that there will be enough spells of negative NAO to result in a slightly colder-than-normal winter across parts of France and Iberia. However, we have warmed our forecast temperatures in most western European locations for both December and January due to a continued lack of any sign of a sustained or strong negative NAO pattern. We expect the mildest winter in Europe since the 2007-08 winter.â€

In December, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK * – Colder than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except France

Southern Mainland * – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In January, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except eastern sections

Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except southern France

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on 19 December.

http://www.wsieurope.com/622b54ce-88c6-4dae-a871-2d7c6dfd5e1c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[Guest]

Might making for an interesting trip along the A75 through the Massif Centrale at the end of of Feb/beginning of March:)

[Mark Neal.]

Don't know if its been published but i have emailed WCC weather forecasting UK And Ireland, They send me a pdf and i have now made it public online to view goto.. http://t.co/DDRMFQwS( The link is the only address i could use, it's not a scam!)

[A Winter's Tale]

Netweather Winter Forecast:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-summary-2011;sess

A mild to Average December, Average to Slightly Below Average January, Below Average Febuary.

Potential for Scandinavian High and easterly winds.

[damianslaw]

Weather Services International Expects Mildest European Winter since 2007-08

Coldest Winter Temperatures Expected across France and Iberia

Andover, MA, November 21, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (December-February) to average lower than normal across France and Iberia with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere, most notably across the Nordic region.

“So far, November has clearly been quite mild across most of Europe. While no immediate change to this pattern is expected, we do foresee a trend towards colder temperatures across western Europe and the UK in December,†said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The winter pattern will be dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the last couple of years, a strong negative phase of the NAO has been dominant, which has resulted in very cold winters. It does not appear that this extreme negative NAO phase will occur again this winter, which, we think, will result in a much warmer winter. We still feel that there will be enough spells of negative NAO to result in a slightly colder-than-normal winter across parts of France and Iberia. However, we have warmed our forecast temperatures in most western European locations for both December and January due to a continued lack of any sign of a sustained or strong negative NAO pattern. We expect the mildest winter in Europe since the 2007-08 winter.â€

In December, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK * – Colder than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except France

Southern Mainland * – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In January, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except eastern sections

Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except southern France

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on 19 December.

http://www.wsieurope...ase-details.htm

This forecast is in complete contrast to GP's thoughts - it seems every winter forecast I read is saying something else - it suggests no-one has a real handle on the situation this winter.. or is this just normal?

[SnowObsessor90]

This forecast is in complete contrast to GP's thoughts - it seems every winter forecast I read is saying something else - it suggests no-one has a real handle on the situation this winter.. or is this just normal?

Yep, that does indeed seem to be the case at the minute

In terms of which one I'd personally prefer it would have to be Mark Vogans, in terms of what I think would be most plausible however it would be GPs.

What we'll actually get is another story altogether though, it might lean more towards one or another, somewhere in between or something completely different. In any case interesting times are certainly ahead.

Edited November 26, 2011 by Anonymous21

[sebastiaan1973]

Well GP tells in his presentation that his own forecast is quite different from the models. So I wonder who will be right. The models (computers) or Human?

Edited November 26, 2011 by sebastiaan1973

[Backtrack]

November:

1st - 10th - Numerous outputs, trends and patterns point to a North/South split during the first third of the month. It's looking very likely that it's going to be very average in the North, day time temperatures hitting 8-10C, but above average in the South, temperatures hitting 13-16C. Precipitation wise, the first start of the month looks like being very wet and unsettled, perhaps making up for the drought in place in Eastern areas. An Atlantic dominated first third, night time temperatures unlikely to bring any frosts at all away from the coldest of hollows.

10th - 20th - This period will follow the same theme as the first third for a time at least, with temperatures being pleasant enough in the South for T-shirts to be worn. In the North though, it's again very average for the time of year until the mid month point at least. Temperatures again 8-10C, 13-15C in the South. It's the mid month point that may bring some interest to you with the first frosts of the month likely, temperatures still recovering to average by day. This third is likely to be the windiest with frequent gales, especially in the West.

20th - 30th - Another dissapointingly average period with little in the way of Winter to be shown just yet. Temperatures again remaining oh so average, although temperatures may be down a little way at least, 5-9C in the North, 10-13C in the South. Rainfall should be around average for the time of year, as should sunshine amounts. A cold spell is likely around the end of the month (The very end of the month) giving the first low level snow to Northern & Eastern areas, this may also mark the start of the Cairngorm skiing season. Frosts are also likely towards the end of the month, but Western and Southern areas are going to have to wait to see anything remotely in the way of snow.

Wow. I am very surprised at how accurate I have been? I must be learning, as I don't think last year's forecast by me was as accurate as this!

[recklessabandon]

November:

1st - 10th - Numerous outputs, trends and patterns point to a North/South split during the first third of the month. It's looking very likely that it's going to be very average in the North, day time temperatures hitting 8-10C, but above average in the South, temperatures hitting 13-16C. Precipitation wise, the first start of the month looks like being very wet and unsettled, perhaps making up for the drought in place in Eastern areas. An Atlantic dominated first third, night time temperatures unlikely to bring any frosts at all away from the coldest of hollows.

10th - 20th - This period will follow the same theme as the first third for a time at least, with temperatures being pleasant enough in the South for T-shirts to be worn. In the North though, it's again very average for the time of year until the mid month point at least. Temperatures again 8-10C, 13-15C in the South. It's the mid month point that may bring some interest to you with the first frosts of the month likely, temperatures still recovering to average by day. This third is likely to be the windiest with frequent gales, especially in the West.

20th - 30th - Another dissapointingly average period with little in the way of Winter to be shown just yet. Temperatures again remaining oh so average, although temperatures may be down a little way at least, 5-9C in the North, 10-13C in the South. Rainfall should be around average for the time of year, as should sunshine amounts. A cold spell is likely around the end of the month (The very end of the month) giving the first low level snow to Northern & Eastern areas, this may also mark the start of the Cairngorm skiing season. Frosts are also likely towards the end of the month, but Western and Southern areas are going to have to wait to see anything remotely in the way of snow.

Wow. I am very surprised at how accurate I have been? I must be learning, as I don't think last year's forecast by me was as accurate as this!

Fair play to you - especially as your December forecast (at least the first half for now) looks a good bet too....

[Cheese Rice]

Very much depends on what your forecast was based on.

What was it based on?

[Backtrack]

Fair play to you - especially as your December forecast (at least the first half for now) looks a good bet too....

Aye, unfortunately it is looking like a likely scenario... I hope it's wrong

Very much depends on what your forecast was based on.

What was it based on?

Various models, trends, teleconnections, CFS trends.

[Roger J Smith]

The second half of November was a "fail" for my forecast but current projections for early December show the forecast phasing back in ... the "fail" was more pronounced over Europe than North America in my index values and I have identified the problem in modelling as lack of a split flow development with the blocking phase of what was initially modelled as a two-part retrogression (Nov and Jan) separated by a fast westerly phase. This first part of the blocking went more meridional forcing the jet to remain in one piece and sending it northwards at about 10-20 W. The indications for January's blocking phase were more robust and given the depth of cold air around the arctic and a high probability of an SSW event in mid-late December, I am not inclined to revise the outlook from here on. So, as promised, an update based on shorter time frame guidance.

Currently viewing the period around 24-27 December as pivotal for the forecast evolution. After a windy and seaonable first half of December, and a possible cold spell around week of 16-22 Dec, watch for gradual development of Greenland high under strong upper block, strong cyclogenesis eastern Atlantic with possible windstorm moving east to east-south-east towards North Sea around 24-25 Dec and gradual change in circulation over following week to become northerly in advance of a second round of strong west to northwest flow in early January and eventually strong blocking high from northwest Russia ridging west towards Scotland. Temperature anomalies could reverse from +5 or higher to -5 or lower during this period (Christmas Eve to mid-Jan).

Deep and severe cold may develop for up to 2-3 weeks then relent gradually in February. This is only slightly different, I believe, than the NW forecast and the main difference is a slightly earlier core for the expected colder period (which I would currently forecast to be 15-25 Jan). If this pattern does evolve, there could be blizzards in southern and eastern England on several occasions as I expect the very mild Atlantic flow and warm SST values to maintain a foothold for mild air masses in southern France promoting a vigorous storm track during this cold phase across northern France and the Channel regions.

It may be seen in retrospect that the warm autumn contributed to a snowy winter by leaving the warmer sea surface temperatures for later interaction with the Siberian air masses.

My current North American winter forecast calls for gradual development of extreme cold over northwest Canada ridging into the north-central U.S., a mild first half of winter in the northeast states reversing to cold and snowy by February, as the severe cold eventually wins out but at that point, by moving further east, allows milder Pacific air to dominate western regions by February.

Predicting an SSW event 15-20 Dec and development of strong +NAO by 25-30 Dec,

[Gavin P]

WOW! Sounds like a stonking cold January! :o

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Now RJS has finally let the cat out of the bag re Jan....mind you if you read his forecast in depth one could pick up that he was indicating a 'severe' event.

BFTP

[Gavin P]

Sounds not unlike the epic cold January of 1940.

[LomondSnowstorm]

https://forum.netweather.tv/blogs/entry/4296-/

My winter forecast.

[summer blizzard]

My winter forecast.

A very good forecast and i suspect my full forecast (released in a few days) will lean the same way.

[kold weather]

Cool forecast LS, its not all that different from 1954-55 which my fav year to compare to this winter at the moment.

I'd personally add 1C to every one of your categories because I think we'll be seeing a Euro high again at some point mid-month for December, for Jan I think any switch-over will be right at the back end of the month if at all, and For Feb I think we will miss the strongest cold flow and be in a Jan 09/06 type set-up for the most part....

[EML Network]

Wanted to repost my initial Winter forecast which I posted on 25th October .

Posted by EML Network on 25 October 2011 - 10:51 in Weather Discussion and Chat

OK here goes nothing .. :-)

December : Likely to be a continuation of drought for Southern and Eastern Areas, cold (but not excessivly so) by day, and where winds fall light under High Pressure plenty of frosts.

Always wetter in the NW of the UK, and some North Westerly's from time to time clipping Scotland giving plenty more mountain and hilltop snow, a mixture of wintery showers further south as occasional and temporary northerly incursions move south over NE England.

Midlands likely to see the best of any sunshine , a lot of mist and fog along Southern and some Eastern coasts.

A generally windy theme for Ireland and the NW.

I still think that things will change sometime around 20th Dec, the feed of weather to become increasingly Northerly, although Im not so sure how long this will last, it could well be that the winds and weather direction swing to a more North Easterly, and if this happens the East, North East, South East, and Scotland could well see a White x-mas, the west closer to High Pressure, and here we could see a battleground scenario take place.

If High Pressue holds firm, this could last until the beginning of Jan, but I think it's more likely that well see the blocking pattern move and end up more to the South of the UK, allowing the atlantic to slip through once again.

Jan I think we'll see a gradual increase in temperatures as we go through January, and a very mixed month to follow.

Lots of rain, strong winds, but also plenty of sunshine around, and some bright crisp days, High Pressure shifting around to be centered over the UK at times, Low Pressure feeding in from the North at times, to give more mountain snow, and snow over the hills of Northern England, Wales, and also parts of Ireland, but weather also encroaching from the South West at times, raising temperatures ntionwide as it does so

No real dominating pattern, so any blocking is likely to be temporary, resulting in a few cold days, perhaps a couple of snowy days almost anywhere, but I dont see there being day after day of cold.

Winds generally quite strong and when the feed is from the North, temporary blizzard conditions likely in Scotland.

FEB I Think Feb is likely to start off quite settled, but I believe that the UK is going to find itself sandwiched between 2 large High Pressure systems.

One over scandi, and one over Iceland, the result is the direcion of our weather from an etremely cold north, a true blast of winter finally comes, and as fronts move south, they drag in more North Easterly winds, and blanket much of the UK in snow, I think there will be a series of fronts passing from the NE of the UK, moving SE and we'll have a very cold first 2 weeks of Feb.

Generally overcast, winds brisk, but not extremely so, and temperatures very cold, lots of ice.

Just before mid Feb, things start to warm up, and a gradual increase in temperatures, winds fall light, and a slow thaw of any lying snow.

We might see a very stormy and wet end to Feb.

TO summarize :

Dec : Dry, perhaps colder than the average, windy, perhaps a widespread white chritmas (0.5 Degrees BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR CET)

Jan : Mixed month with no real dominating pattern ( AVERAGE CET)

Feb : Very cold forst half, warming up to end on a stormy note. ( 0.5 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR CET, a cold first half offset by a milder 2nd half)

That's my analysis, based upon the possible over cooking of La Nina (I believe we'll be at about negative 1 by Jan)..which is a weak La Nina, and not at negative 2 which is a moderate to strong La Nina, as is being forecast by CFS charts.

Sunspot activiy, although has increased, I believe there is a lag time in for the effects of increased activity to take effect on the large scale, I still think we'll experience a generally colder winter this time around, due to last years very quiet sun.

Jet Stream, it could well be the Jet stream that is the undoing of my forecast, it has movd much further north (as an average position) over recent months, my forecast is for this to be a teemporary blip, my forecast is for the jet to slip further south (as an average position) from end of Nov onwards

QBO AND NAO Im still not clued up about these really, so those are 2 things i'll be looking at and learning more about in 2012.

[Guest Kent-Weather]

Ahh RJS forecast would be a snow lovers dream for areas of the UK! I know I'd be very intrigued given the locality of what could happen If that came off word for word and exactly how it states. Surely we would be looking at a January 1987 for us in Kent http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870111.gif

I refuse to ramp though or get excited. LRF's are fraught with such danger and possibility of unexpected events which would throw an LRF way off course. A lovely read though and one which brought a smile of what could be! Thanks for the input RJS!