The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[Karl83]

Hey everyone, I'm new here. Just wanted to add my 2 pence. I'm no expert weatherwise - I just love the weather as much as most on here.

I'm currently thinking December will be very different to last, rather boring and not too much cold around, possibly. Its just my gut feeling. Although I hope not. But I suppose having a year of boring non-eventful weather hasn't helped my thoughts. Not sure about Jan & Feb as I'm no pro and wouldnt know where to start lol.

I hope someone can tell me that we will have a snowmagedon in winter at some point!!!

Hello to you all btw!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Just love the way the old 62/63 thing gets trotted out every Autumn/early Winter......

I know same old same old every year......

....which reminds me has anybody mentioned Seagulls yet ? :lol:

[toggerob]

Looking at today's NOAA ice/snow map there's significant snowfall across all of continental Russia across some of the neighboring borders, physics dictates that colder air is quicker to establish itself than warmer via the way the contraction of air works. All it would take is a scandi-high to push that drier airmass westwards and like in previous years when such setups have become routine, the flow becomes established. This is all my opinion however, but increasingly the warm temps the UK has been seeing is dropping off week by week in response to the natural hemispheric cycle. Now the temps are at minima's to allow such a flow to be in place all that's needed is the mechanism.

[Snowangel-MK]

Hello to you all btw!!

Hello TB

[Heisenberg]

I know same old same old every year......

....which reminds me has anybody mentioned Seagulls yet ? :lol:

Yea MK, thats come up, as have the squirels as per....

[johnholmes]

http://www.thamesweb...y/freeze63.html

http://myweb.tiscali.../29Nov-1962.htm

Chart for 1st December 1962:

But that was then!!! :winky:

ah but

if only

etc

those were the days

poring over the Telegraph weather section in the school library when the lrf forecast went out to 'outlook for tomorrow'

those were the days.

and wildly off topic

No I have not the faintest idea what the winter of 2011-12 will be like.

About a 40% risk at the moment that the start of December will turn colder. How long will that last-best you ask others?

Edited November 16, 2011 by johnholmes

[Heisenberg]

ah but

if only

etc

those were the days

poring over the Telegraph weather section in the school library when the lrf forecast went out to 'outlook for tomorrow'

those were the days.

and wildly off topic

No I have not the faintest idea what the winter of 2011-12 will be like.

About a 40% risk at the moment that the start of December will turn colder. How long will that last-best you ask others?

Showing your age there mr H lol.

[gottolovethisweather]

I know same old same old every year......

....which reminds me has anybody mentioned Seagulls yet ? :lol:

Probably only the GULLable ones.

Mind you, I'll mention the Swallows, House Martins, Wheatears etc. that are still here, albeit in much reduced numbers. Actually, any birdy folk out there, should go looking for Waxwings once again, as they are now arriving. The aforementioned summer migrants aren't obviously satisfied with the 9 continuous days of Easterlies that my area has recently endured. They are looking for a good stiff Northerly to see them on their way. Is it coming?

Although I prefer to read the GFS output, ECM t+168 and more appropriately the t+240 show the COLD POOLS developing nicely. As SnowJoke states, all we need is a trigger!

I feel there is certainly a cool down coming (only 6.4c max thus far in Newbury, today) But, if the atlantic wins through then we all should prepare for alternating mild and cool spells.

Ever hopeful.

gottolovethisweather

PS! mods please move to more appropriate thread if need be.

Edited November 16, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[johnholmes]

Showing your age there mr H lol.

inded; but not much I can do about the numbers after my name-its not much fun but probably better than the alternative!

[Guest]

Just love the way the old 62/63 thing gets trotted out every Autumn/early Winter, reminding us yet again (as if we could have actually forgotten) that the cold spell didn't start in earnest until Boxing Day, or was it New Years Day, or Good Friday??

I remember 62/63 reasonably well but hardly anything of '47 - I was about at the time but not that old.

[Roger J Smith]

Developments so far are generally positive from my perspective, and point to the potential for major cold and snow around mid-January after a few less robust efforts likely in December.

The "cold pole" is definitely over on the Pacific side of the hemisphere at present, but that has its benefits for later cold on your side, since there is a more accommodating region over this way to create significant arctic high pressure. Then what is needed is some mechanism to push that over the pole towards north-central Russia where it can begin to influence Scandinavia. I foresee that being the general outcome over 30-60 days as retrogression begins to develop in December, then height building follows in western North America (right now we have a raging subarctic jet coming in here and it's cold/moist).

So like I said originally, patience -- this winter won't all come and go before New Years, in fact, it might not even start really until after New Years, with one possible exception, I think about one week of December will be wintry and that most likely around 15th to 21st give or take a few days.

So the bottom line remains this -- there seems to be a very good chance for major winter weather to come in January, and if that turns out to be too fast then February has been known to be just as good if not better, but personally I am still thinking January is "the" month.

[Roger J Smith]

Winter forecasts refer to the period 1 Dec to 29 Feb so it seems to me that none of them have gone pear-shaped at all.

If the reference is to anything about November, I said it would start mild and turn colder. But November wasn't held out to be that big a deal, in fact I was somewhat going against the herd at the time by not filling December with wall-to-wall cold ... and I still think the main event of this winter will come in January. So we'll see what kind of shape that has then, but right now, winter is still a few weeks away. Except maybe around where I live, it's bloody cold outside here.

[A Winter's Tale]

Yes

Developments so far are generally positive from my perspective, and point to the potential for major cold and snow around mid-January after a few less robust efforts likely in December.

The "cold pole" is definitely over on the Pacific side of the hemisphere at present, but that has its benefits for later cold on your side, since there is a more accommodating region over this way to create significant arctic high pressure. Then what is needed is some mechanism to push that over the pole towards north-central Russia where it can begin to influence Scandinavia. I foresee that being the general outcome over 30-60 days as retrogression begins to develop in December, then height building follows in western North America (right now we have a raging subarctic jet coming in here and it's cold/moist).

So like I said originally, patience -- this winter won't all come and go before New Years, in fact, it might not even start really until after New Years, with one possible exception, I think about one week of December will be wintry and that most likely around 15th to 21st give or take a few days.

So the bottom line remains this -- there seems to be a very good chance for major winter weather to come in January, and if that turns out to be too fast then February has been known to be just as good if not better, but personally I am still thinking January is "the" month.

Yes it looks like once this pattern we are in now is over sometime in December, the potential for snow and cold should increase after Mid December and Christmas in particular. I think because the pattern is likely to end in December, January is more likely to become the month of the winter but I wouldn't write off December just yet as I certainly do feel the potential for snow in the 2nd half of the month however with January we have got an entire month of a more favourable pattern for cold and snow. So yes I'm going for our current pattern ending in December, with a new pattern that is more favourable for cold and snow developing in the 2nd half of December with a potential for cold and snow but an entire month in January being even more favourable with a greater potential for cold and snow.

So as it stands here is what I'm going for:

Late November: Cold/Snow Potential - 5% (Current Pattern)

Early December: Cold/Snow Potential - 10% (Current Pattern perhaps evolving into something more favourable)

Mid December: Cold/Snow Potential - 12.5% (Pattern Change)

Late December: Cold/Snow Potential - 35% (More favourable set up for cold and snow but not quite settled yet)

Early January: Cold/Snow Potential: - 40% (New set up here and potential for cold and snow higher after pattern settles)

Mid January: Cold/Snow Potential: - 50% (Right in and amgongst the new pattern)

Late January: Cold/Snow Potential - 40% (Coming towards end or end of pattern)

Febuary: 35%, 25%, 12.5%

So I'm going for potential for cold and snow to increase in 2nd half of December but for an even greater potential in January as pattern takes hold fully after settling in during December.

[cooling climate]

Winter forecasts refer to the period 1 Dec to 29 Feb so it seems to me that none of them have gone pear-shaped at all.

If the reference is to anything about November, I said it would start mild and turn colder. But November wasn't held out to be that big a deal, in fact I was somewhat going against the herd at the time by not filling December with wall-to-wall cold ... and I still think the main event of this winter will come in January. So we'll see what kind of shape that has then, but right now, winter is still a few weeks away. Except maybe around where I live, it's bloody cold outside here.

I was merely stating that I would not put much faith in

a winter forcast that included a prediction for November

that went titicus verticus so quickly.

How you and your side kick wish to spin things is up to

you. I to have made a winter long range forcast which is

due for its third update. In it I stated a cold blast in the

second half of November which I am now convinced will not

be the case but there was no way that this November was

going to be anything but mild generally.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I was merely stating that I would not put much faith in

a winter forcast that included a prediction for November

that went titicus verticus so quickly.

How you and your side kick wish to spin things is up to

you. I to have made a winter long range forcast which is

due for its third update. In it I stated a cold blast in the

second half of November which I am now convinced will not

be the case but there was no way that this November was

going to be anything but mild generally.

So zero faith in yours as well then? Oh but well done for an attempt of some sorts for a forecast though :smiliz19:

BFTP

[gottolovethisweather]

It's like a TV soap opera in some of the threads tonight.

From my point of view, I give maximum respect to all those, who are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

BTW the date is 16th November and the time of my post is 22:27. Welcome to my world, that's the "here n now".

My opinion (for what it's worth) is that there's so much potential to tap into and I feel we will soon get our turn. Most likely, it will come about via Polar Maritime incursions, interspersed with Tropical Maritime excursions for time being.

Maybe a first hint here?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

I don't know, I'm getting the impression that it is going to turn fairly mild at least for the first part of the winter but cheer up you snow lovers, remember 1946/7:)

haha! you are one of 'the few' mike. (and i dont mean you saw action in the Battle of Britain!)

[Guest]

haha! you are one of 'the few' mike. (and i dont mean you saw action in the Battle of Britain!)

That's a shame - I've always wanted to fly a Spitfire

[summer blizzard]

Winter forecasts refer to the period 1 Dec to 29 Feb so it seems to me that none of them have gone pear-shaped at all.

If the reference is to anything about November, I said it would start mild and turn colder. But November wasn't held out to be that big a deal, in fact I was somewhat going against the herd at the time by not filling December with wall-to-wall cold ... and I still think the main event of this winter will come in January. So we'll see what kind of shape that has then, but right now, winter is still a few weeks away. Except maybe around where I live, it's bloody cold outside here.

Roger, do you think that slight long term retrogression is occuring even now.

I say this because when the Euro High pattern first originated we saw a large SW element to the winds (very wet in western England) while we now see a large SE element and the models now seemed to have dropped zonality and gone for the high to be very close to us.

This to me indicates that there has been a small bit of north westward motion of the Euro High.

What are your thoughts?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well I am pretty pleased with my forecast so far.

I see November as being a fairly benign and average month. We will continue with the theme of a high to the east and Atlantic troughs to the west during the beginning of the month, with the second half of the month seeing a more mobile Atlantic, with the high slipping into southern Europe, giving us a feed of SW winds for a time. Temperatures will be slightly above the long term average, with rainfall around average, perhaps above average in the North and West. (made on the 19th October I believe)

November is turning out pretty much as I thought it would, with the Atlantic now starting to ramp up a bit as I predicted and SW winds now looking set to arrive. Temperature and rainfall prediction is also looking pretty sweet If anyone from the MET wants to give me a job then please PM me!

Edited November 17, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[UV-RAY]

Deary me it's a wonder anyone posts a LRF on here, with the amount of hostility and abuse hurled at them.

[Backtrack]

Deary me it's a wonder anyone posts a LRF on here, with the amount of hostility and abuse hurled at them.

I think you'll find that within the community here, it's a place where your forecast will be respected by many, even if it doesn't show their weather preference you will be praised for your effort. However if someone posts a forecast, such as James Madden or Joe laminate floori, then people will slate it yes.

Edited November 17, 2011 by Backtrack

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I think one or two need to stop taking out their frustrations of the lack of snow (in November) on other members and perhaps treat each other with a little more respect?

[UV-RAY]

I think you'll find that within the community here, it's a place where your forecast will be respected by many, even if it doesn't show their weather preference you will be praised for your effort. However if someone posts a forecast, such as James Madden or Joe laminate floori, then people will slate it yes.

I think you'll find that within the community here, it's a place where your forecast will be respected by many, even if it doesn't show their weather preference you will be praised for your effort. However if someone posts a forecast, such as James Madden or Joe laminate floori, then people will slate it yes.

I was referring to the other members having a dig at those on here, who've posted their winter forecasts. As Osbourne stated it's no good having a go at them just because it's not blowing a Blizzard, with temps below zero in November.

[Catacol]

I was merely stating that I would not put much faith in

a winter forcast that included a prediction for November

that went titicus verticus so quickly.

I rarely post, but this has promtped me to respond. Please point me to a part of RJS's forecast which has gone wrong already. My calendar says 17th Nov. The forecast talked about a mild fortnight (which we have had) and then cooling off - which seems likely enough. Maybe it is the historian in me, but downright inaccuracy flung at someone else who has put together a forecast in reasonable detail strikes me as pretty bloody poor. Are you sure you are a weather fan at all?