Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread


reef

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Cool forecast LS, its not all that different from 1954-55 which my fav year to compare to this winter at the moment.

I'd personally add 1C to every one of your categories because I think we'll be seeing a Euro high again at some point mid-month for December, for Jan I think any switch-over will be right at the back end of the month if at all, and For Feb I think we will miss the strongest cold flow and be in a Jan 09/06 type set-up for the most part....

That is indeed a possibility. I personally think it will work out better than the January 2009 SSW but we could just end up being unlucky once again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Going on absolutely nothing but guessing and gut feeling I think winter for the SE will look like this:

The relatively mild weather will continue until early December. This will be followed by a rapid cool down. We shall see a relatively large amount of precipitation in the early part of December, this will be rain. There will then be a slight warm up in temperature followed by some snowfall around the 20th December onwards. This will leave only a couple of inches with the occasional flurry to top it up, but it shall melt again before Xmas.

Xmas will be bitterly cold but conditions won't be right for snow. However by early January the snow will fall thick and fast and we shall see similar conditions to last year, but it will not be as deep. Snow will be on the ground and topped up by regular showers until at least mid January. Heavy rain showers will melt the snow quickly and by 21st January it will all be melted. We shall see a few flurries up until the end of January, but these will barely lay. February will be more mild with the normal amount of rainfall we would expect for the month. From that point the warm up to Spring starts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

I need my snow fix and was planning of getting it next month but now i will probably have to wait another month on top :cray:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

As promised here are my thoughts on winter 11/12 - for what they are worth, I'm no expert so these are just taken as a hunch whilst taking into account all the forecasts I have been reading as possible signals..

Dec - I have already said in the dec cet thread how I see this month panning out. Very near average, but a very topsy turvy month with no sustained cold weather, alternating cold and mild with a growing threat of much colder conditions towards end of the month from a northerly especially for the north.

Jan - below average, potentially significantly so, but at this stage I will say it won't be quite as cold as Jan 2010. New year starting on a cold note thanks to northerly airstream but then the atlantic will move in temporarily to bring further wet windy and quite mild conditions, but heights will be building very strongly to our NE - jet will be forced ever southwards and one trigger low just before mid month will pull down those cold northereasterlies - these persisting for the second half of the month with low pressure forced on a southerly track - could be very snowy for some, a role reversal of Jan 2010 perhaps - with the milder first half cancelled out by a very cold second half.

Feb - coldest month of the winter but only slightly colder than Jan - strong heights to our NE southerly tracking jet, we may see some milder conditions at times in the south as warm sectors move in but these will be quickly pushed aside. I also think March will start off very cold with the pattern firmly established and very reluctant to move.

Overall - not quite as cold as last winter thanks to no month being sub zero, but colder than 08/09 thanks to a predominantly cold second half. I think there will be many people at christmas saying what was all the fuss about this winter... but by end of Jan they will know exactly what it was all about.. so lots of early patience for snow and cold lovers this winter but we will be rewarded come the second half and significantly so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Hey guys can any of u tell me where can i get the thickness the 500dam and the 850hpa charts in text format in sted of graphs i am unable to c the charts. I would be grateful. Thanks.

Hey guys can any of u tell me where can i get the thickness the 500dam and the 850hpa charts in text format in sted of graphs i am unable to c the charts. I would be grateful. Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Cool forecast LS, its not all that different from 1954-55 which my fav year to compare to this winter at the moment.

I'd personally add 1C to every one of your categories because I think we'll be seeing a Euro high again at some point mid-month for December, for Jan I think any switch-over will be right at the back end of the month if at all, and For Feb I think we will miss the strongest cold flow and be in a Jan 09/06 type set-up for the most part....

For the AO and La Nina i actually like a blend of 1962, 1967, 1970 and 2007.

I actually agree a lot with your thoughts this month in that i expect high pressure to be very close to the UK for the last third, although i expect it to be pretty much just east of the UK and as such do not believe it will produce mild weather (inversions). I expect the cold to set in sometime after the 10th January and expect a Feb outcome at least as cold as Feb 10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

Although Rampling has predicted a rather mild December, increasing cold January and February being potentially the coldest month, and I do have much respect for this forecast and it's scientific interpretations, I think December will be full of both cold and mild interludes.

Looking at some 10-15 day forecast sites, there seems to be an indication of a cold interlude around the 5-7th December with some minor snowfall in northern areas but maybe as far down as the midlands, although the period around 10-12th December looks rather mild. However, there is obviously chance for these signs to change more closer to these dates, especially the latter period I mentioned. Although this may be hard to believe, I think there will be some small flurries on Thursday evening in some places as it looks quite cold and cloudy.

Also, as we further approach the period of the 15-20th we will see how it looks for Mark Vogan's prediction that the real cold will arrive then.

Edited by torrch
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GP has not predicted a mild December, he actually said the signal is rather average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

GP has not predicted a mild December, he actually said the signal is rather average.

I had gotten the impression that the GP was average-mild?

I think that will be the case but with some moderation at times with both some cold and mild spells.

Edited by torrch
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Update from Simon Keeling at Weatheronline:

Valid from 11/12 to 07/01 2012 Storing up trouble?

The conditions look as though may 'thankfully' become a little more interesting through the coming month as the patterns notch up a gear and we receive the more characteristic fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and fortune, the deck of cards perhaps being more evenly dealt than previously seen, some areas seeing an improvement whilst other slide into a more unsettled and wintry regime.

*11/12/11*

Unsettled and cool, increasingly colder could be the name of the game here? Low pressure will be ruling the overall pattern; this'll be generating rather mixed conditions for all of the UK during this period. It'll be rather windy at times with outbreaks of rain which will be heavy at times and through from time to time as colder air becomes drawn into the flow, expect some wintriness to appear across higher ground across the north, northwest and west. Given the unsettled nature of the pattern, the strength of the breeze and the source region of the flow it'll be feeling rather cold at times, although as we approach the close of the period, the cold flow will be cut off and it'll slowly become less cold, eventually milder by comparison as a switch around to the west or northwest takes place.

*12/12/11 - 18/12/11*

With high pressure close to the west of the UK, western Britain will be experiencing the driest and brightest of the conditions on offer, whilst further east and northeast it'll somewhat more mixed. The flow looks as if it'll be sourced from mid-Atlantic, so not overly cold just 'cool' generally coming around the northern flank of a central Atlantic centre area of high pressure, this carrying a good deal of cloud down through the UK on a north-westerly flow. Across eastern and north-eastern Britain there may be a bit more in the way of showery rain and a brisker breeze at times.

*19/12/11 - 21/12/11*

High pressure builds through the UK as an anticyclone drifts across from the west so al areas should see a few days of drier and more settled weather, chilly and calm overnight so expect frost and areas of mist and fog to be troublesome, persisting in some areas throughout the day, where it'll remain chilly.

*22/12/11 - 24/12/11*

This rather chilly and settled regime looks as though it'll be swept away by an increasingly windy and less cold flow from off the Atlantic, low pressure tracking in off the Atlantic to bring an unsettled regime to all areas. Mild at first although as low pressure transfers eastward a much colder blast follows from the north, showers turning wintry quite readily

http://www.weatheron...1&MMA=11&TTA=28

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

Sound like we may see a bit of wintry weather just before Christmas!

Edited by torrch
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Winter 2011/2012 Forecast

This forecast is based on the following points:

1. Extended, weak solar activity and still below normal, but increasing sunspot activity.

2. Weak La Nina persisting into the middle of winter, before fading back towards neutral by spring.

3. Cold PDO/Warm AMO combination similar to 1950's (this is a wild card because it looks like the

AMO is becoming neutral or cold, which tends to favour troughiness over us, particularly when combined with La Nina)

4. October rainfall coming out at 94% of the average for England and Wales.

5. Active hurricane season.

6. Above average, but rather late snow cover across Siberia.

Most of the pointers I look at to compile a winter forecast are telling me the winter of 2011/2012 should be colder than average.

It would be very unusual to get a fourth colder than average winter on the bounce, however, I cannot ignore my methodology. So this forecast is going to predict a colder than average winter.

I'm thinking at least two of the three winter months will be colder than average.

DECEMBER:

I'm expecting December to be rather disturbed in the first half of the month, with quite deep areas of low pressure moving into the country producing wind storms,heavy rain and possibly snow. We should see big temperature variations during this period

Sometime around mid December I think we'll get a spell of high pressure, initially producing a mild, dry spell, but tending to become colder as the high becomes located over the country.

Christmas itself could be dry, cold and frosty with very little if any snow lying.

Between Christmas and New Year I expect a cold snap to develop, probably from the north, with wintry weather for many.

CET Temperature 0.5c above normal. Precipitation 100% of the average.

JANUARY

January might see cold and mild weather waxing and waning, but as we go into the later part of the month the emphasis will increasingly shift towards cold.

The New Year period should be cold and wintry, but then I'd expect a thaw as the weather becomes more Atlantic dominated for a time.

Mid month onwards we're at risk of increasingly cold and snowy conditions, though milder Atlantic air should push in for a time, once again.

The end of the month may turn very cold as a big area of high pressure develops over Scandinavia and brings winds around the east.

Temperature 1.0c below average. Precipitation 100% of the average.

FEBRUARY

February looks potentially the coldest month of the winter with high pressure dominating over Scandinavia and possibly Greenland also. The NAO/AO may go extremely negative, locking us into a prolonged and very cold spell of weather.

The first half of February may be the sevierest spell of the winter, with maxima staying around freezing all day and lots of snow and severe frosts as well.

The second half of the month should find low pressure attacking from the south-west as the blocking highs slowly lose their influence. So gradually it should turn milder with snow turning more to rain, though this could be a pretty slow process.

I think we end the month on a milder and unsettled note with snow confined to upland northern regions.

*I think there is a small, but not insignificant risk of February being a severe month on a par with Februaries of 1956 and 1986. At this stage I would rate this chance as around 25%. What goes against that risk is that I think the Atlantic will be attacking from time to time later in the month. This increases the risk of snow, but perversely also stops the cold from becoming too severe for an extended period.*

Temperature 2.0c below average. Precipitation 100% of the average.

Edited by Gavin P
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

THE WATCHER'S WINTER FORECAST: DEC 2011 - FEB 2012

Current Affairs:

  • Weak La Nina (tending stronger into 2012) possibly peaking at Medium Strength.
  • Positive SST Anomalies surrounding UK (SW Eire an exception), negative South and West of Iceland.
  • Significantly cooling stratosphere with an increasingly strong Polar Vortex.
  • Negative Snowcover anomalies in NW Europe, Positive Russia and some Eastern Europe.
  • SW/NE Jetstream, flattening upstream, amplified Mid Atlantic - Strong.

Looking at these recent observations it is not hard to believe that the weather is feeding in from the Atlantic at this time with strong Low Pressures passing to the NW/N of Scotland. What I intend with my forecast is to create a realistic evolutionary sequence of weather types using these fundamental current stats and evolving the pattern through the forecast period with some short term model forecasts. (ie, SSW forecasts).

Let's take a look at how I see the current state moving forward through the Winter months.

December 1st - 15th

  • Jetstream SW/NE over UK, then NW/SE flattening through day 5-7.
  • Cooling Stratosphere, slowing.
  • La Nina weak, increasing in strength.
  • Snow cover below average NW Europe.
  • Neutral NAO.

Early in the period sees unsettled conditions for all of the UK with Wet and Very Windy conditions and some Severe winds for NW and Western UK as Deep Low Pressure systems pass close to or through the UK. Rainfall could cause some flooding in NW England, Northern Ireland, Western Eire, West and Northwest Scotland and precipitation could be Wintry for these areas at times, but mainly confined to hills. SE/S UK will see slightly below - average rainfall for this period. During the second half of this period more settled conditions will take hold from the South bringing some frost and fog for Southern and Central UK with the N and West remaining a little more changeable with less in the way of wind but some rainfall at times, some frost on any clear nights. Drier overall for the ending of this period with rainfall falling below average, especially in S/SE UK.

Temperatures at the beginning of this period likely to be variable and slightly below average for Northern and Western UK, Average for the South and East. Later in the period will see below average temperatures for all areas, especially inland areas.

December 16th - 31st

  • Jetstream over Central/Northern UK, becoming SW/NE over SW Eire.
  • La Nina becoming moderate and stabilizing.
  • Stratosphere stabilizing, beginning to warm slightly.
  • Snowcover Average NW Europe
  • NAO slightly Negative

For the periods 16th - 21st the South of the UK will see mainly dry conditions with some frost and fog. Temperatures here will be slightly below - below average for December due to clear nights. Northern areas will see more unsettled and windy conditions at times with rainfall close to the seasonal norm, temperatures here will be average for the period. From 21st of December all of the UK will see more unsettled conditions with LP moving SW/NE through the UK bringing a return to some Wet and Windy weather for Southern UK. Temperatures will be slightly above average for Northern UK and possibly well above average for Southern UK. As we approach the end of the forecast period temperatures will trend cooler again as LP takes a more Southerly route through Western areas of the UK and winds trend W/NW.

December Temperatures - Average/Slightly Below (CET - 4.5c?)

January 1st - 31st

  • Jetstream S of UK, trending NW/SE and then flat over Central UK.
  • Warming stratosphere, cooling from mid month.
  • Moderate La Nina, only slightly increasing in strength.
  • Average Snow Cover NW Europe, trending above average.
  • NAO medium negative, becoming weak positive by mid month.

January will begin cool and becoming colder as a NW/N flow becomes prolonged during the first week bringing snowfall to some in the NW/N/W and Eastern UK as heavy showers (falling as snow to many in Northern areas) push South. Southern UK will be drier but chilly with widespread frosts and the odd Wintry Shower. Some prolonged wintry precipitation may affect all areas of the UK at times as fronts push South. During the end of the first week winds will turn NE/E and temperatures will tumble to well below average as snowfall becomes more widespread for E/S/SE UK and drier for Western areas. Travel disruption is expected around this period. From mid month milder and more unsettled conditions will return to Western areas and eventually most of the UK (Northernmost UK an exception with wintry conditions continuing a little longer) as winds turn W/SW bringing average rainfall to Southern and Central UK and Eire. During the last 3rd of January Southern UK will become more settled as Northern areas continue to see Low Pressure systems move close to the North of Scotland.

January Temperatures - Slightly/Well Below Average (CET - 2.5c?)

February

  • Cooling Stratosphere, warming from 2nd week
  • Jetstream flat, becoming split and weak mid month
  • Moderate La Nina, losing strength
  • Above average snow cover NW Europe
  • Neutral NAO

February will begin Unsettled in the North, settled in the South with rain at times for Scotland, Northern England and Eire. Central, Southern England and Wales will see some frost at times and remain mainly dry but with cloud/drizzle affecting the S/SW at times. Temperatures will be slightly below average for Southern areas and Average for Northern areas. From day 7- 10 a W/E split with drier weather in the E and rain at times for the West but eventually the whole of the UK will become drier with High pressure to Eastern UK. From day 10, winds will swing E/SE with chilly winds pushing into Eastern areas and frosts becoming widespread, even for Western areas. High pressure will push N/NE bringing E/NE winds to many in the UK and as cold air filters West across Northern Europe, Snow will become widespread for Eastern areas of the UK and E/N facing coasts. Some disruption is possible during this period and some snowfall is possible just about anywhere with maybe some severe disruption from prolonged snowfall in places. From 20th, Western areas will see some milder weather arrive with wintry weather reserved for far Eastern UK. From 23rd, all areas will see unsettled weather return with some Wind and Rain, especially for W/SW UK. Temperatures will recover to normal/above normal values by 25th and unsettled conditions will continue, especially for Western areas. Eastern areas may be drier at times.

February Temperatures - Slightly Below/Well Below Average (CET 2.7c?)

Conclusion:

Winter 2011/2012 will see mixed conditions with prolonged spells of mild/average weather interspersed with cooler and colder periods, especially the final 2/3rds of Winter in the New Year. No records will be broken on the cold side, but December (around Christmas) could see some record mild conditions for Southern UK. Snowfall/Severe winter weather is likely to occur, especially during January and February.

Thanks for reading,

The Watcher

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Looking at several websites as well as the members forecasts on here it looks like 2011/2012 could well turn out to be another winter with below normal temperatures, possibly colder than last winter with all three months having cold periods rather than just one and a half like last winter. That'd make it the 4th cold winter in a row.

2008/2009 3.6c (-0.9c)

2009/2010 2.4c (-2.1c)

2010/2011 3.1c (-1.4c)

2011/2012 ?.??c

Would be a notable run which makes it even more questionable whether this coming winter will also have a negative value (a normal value would be notable enough)

Edited by Optimus Prime
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Hmm I may be wrong but I don't believe there is strong enough evidence to suggest january and februrary will be below average with above average snowfall, with us having a more easterly influence on our weather.

Don't get me wrong there are some very well presented forecasts being made and with good ideas and methods but I can't help think a lot of it is guess work.

If I had to make a forecast I would probably go along the lines of our winter being mainly mild/average with above average rainfall. As the jet seems to be the strongest its been in years and as a country our winters are 'normally mainly mild/cool and wet'.

Also from all the forecasts I've heard they almost all seem to be pointing at the same december/january/februrary... But arriving at there conclusions with much different variables and forecasting methods. I kind of get the feeling people decide what they are gunna go for (cold/mild, snowy/ un-snowy) then look for ways to back there ideas up.

Anyways I hope I'm wrong but I think this winter will be typical to the winters in the 90s, brief northerlies, the odd cold spell and a lot of wind and rain.

What we must rememeber about the last couple of winters is, preceeding them (over the coarse of the year) I can't remember the atlantic being so quite and as a whole the lack of rainfall. Maybe things are back to normal now, typical english winter :closedeyes:

Edited by Harsh Climate
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

AWT FINAL WINTER FORECAST

Winter 2011/2012

Factors Involved:

  • Recent, Low Solar Activity
  • La Nina and a predicted strengthening La Nina
  • The consitency of High Pressure over Greenland
  • Current and near future positioning of the jet stream
  • The Weather of the past 12 or so months

FORECAST

DECEMBER 2011:

  • The period 1st-7th December is likely to follow what should be a cooler end to November. I expect December to start off on a cooler note - than what November is likely to be as a whole - with nighttime frost and daytime temperatures of 4C to 9C. This period should bring a mixture of sunshine, cloud and fog to parts of the UK as settled weather prevails. The period should be dominated by low pressure systems with cool polar maritime incursisons following behind the fronts and bringing some wintry weather to parts of the North and West.

  • During the period 7th-14th of December, I expect Low Pressure systems from the west to cross over the United Kingdom, bringing rain, wind, milder temperatures and some wet hill snow in the Highlands. Although temperatures are likely to be milder, I do expect some cool-cold polar maritime incursions between depressions bringing some sunshine (particulary to more southern and eastern areas although cloud may hang on to some coastal areas), some frost (perhpas lasting the entire day of some Northern areas) and wintery showers (most likely to be centered over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland).
  • What I see happening in the period 14th-21st of December is initially Atlantic Dominated before we see High Pressure in Atlantic link up With Higher Pressure in South-Eastern Greenland. The first few days will see a very active atlantic but still with the element of cold topplers behind the fronts and some of these may provide some snow to lower areas in England as some of the topplers will see more cold air than others. Towards the middle and into the latter part I expect to see the signs of Higher Pressure out in the Atlantic and Greenland building.

  • The period 21st -31st December should start of quite unsettled and chilly initially. However as we head towards Christmas I expect the UK to enter a blocked period with a notable northerly spreading south over the UK during Christmas Eve and lasting till late on Boxing Day. An easterly attempt is broken down when Higher Pressure in the Atlantic and Greenland is smashed by strong areas of low pressure. However as we head towards towards the end of the period I expect a battleground snowfall to take place over the UK and perhaps leading to some large accumilations in the Northern Half of the UK. Following the snowfall, there should be a thaw, and a return to less cold conditions with incoming low pressure systems.

JANUARY 2012:

  • The New Year should start pretty chilly with snow snow in the NW of Scotland as chilly zonal pattern prevails with some cold topplers. One or two of these topplers could bring some pretty expansive cold air over the UK and the potential threat for some more frontal snowfalls. During this period I expect signs of a warming in the Stratoshphere (perhaps since Christmas).

  • The duration of the 7th-13th of January should see indications of High Pressure Building over Greenland and vague hints of a pressure rise in NE Scandinavia but the period should should be predominatley Atlantic dominated although the jet stream should gradually be moving south and extremes of pretty mild sectors to cold sectors will be felt.

  • The Period 13th-20th January should see High Pressure over Greenland firmly established and more profound than the attempt of Northern Blocking in late December. Initially, the UK Should be pretty chilly, but as very intense cold air from the Arctic comes down in a notable northerly, we should quickly see things turn progressively and substantially colder. By the middle of the period I would expect some pretty heavy snow showers in Shetland and Northern Scotland aswell as NI with night time temperatures widely below freezing and droping to below -10C in the Highlands. However by the end of the period, I would expect some notable and prolonged periods of snowfalls crossing south over Scotland before intensifying over England, Wales and Ireland over the Irish and North Sea. By the end of the period, -15C or lower should have been reached in the Scottish Highlands.
  • Between the 20th and 27th of January, I expect to see a gradual increase in terms of intensity of cold and snow with temperatures of -15C to -20C being reached in the Scottish Highlands throughout the period so really not too much of a change in that area but daytime temperatures and night time temperatures elsewhere should be colder at the end than at the beginning. With conitinuos snow showers in the North and some going further south down eastern and western coasts, there shouldn't be too much of a problem with snow in this cold but quite quiet period of weather. However towards the end of the period, as the Greenland High shows signs of a decline, the potential for heights over Scandinavia increase.

  • The time frame of the 27th - 31st January should be quite active. The start of the period should see temperatures drop lower than that in the first period with some temperatures in the Highlands below -20C and in some cities -10C should have been reached. As winds have a slight NWly element in them, snow showers should become more expansive and prolonged in North and much of the west. However as Heights over Greenland start to dissolve we should see an incoming aprroch of fronts to create an incredibly messy breakdown. However as the fronts head towards the UK and Ireland, I expect heights over Scandinavia to build.

FEBUARY 2012:

  • The period 1st-7th of Febuary is expected to see an incredible battle between the milder Atlantic and a very strong and expansive area of High Pressure over Scandinavia. Initially, we should see some impressive snowfalls as milder Atlantic air meets colder Arctic air, however the front(s) are expected to stall over Central and Eastern parts of the UK contributing to some very large snowfalls. In the western edge of the front it should be slightly less cold as the front over the Eastern half of the country dissolves leaving behind small pockets of light snow and some large snow depths. As the front fails to win, the easterly wind locked and trapped by the front is unleashed bringing impressive cold temperatures to all parts of the UK and widespread, heavy, convective snow showers and streamers all the way from Kent to Wick. Eastern and some central parts of England and Scotland should see some very impressive snowfalls and decent depths. In parts of Ireland and southern Wales there may be some impressive snowfalls from streamers and Western Scotland should experiences some snow showers from any streamers. In the eastern Highlands, temperatures of -15 to -25C are possible and in some eastern and northern towns and cities, temperatures of -10 to -20C are possible.

  • The following period of the 7th-14th of Febuary is expected to see the High Pressure over Scandinavia and the Easterly winds to continue. The beginning and ending of the period is likely to see the worst of the snow for much of the east coast and some more prolonged areas of snowfall spreading further inland into more Central and Western areas right up and down the UK. But essentially, the main aspect of the period is the temperatures during the middle with temperatures in Cities such as Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glashow droping to below -15C and -10C being reached in cities further south including London. Snow showers won't be quite as profound, although there will still be some light snow showers in eastern coasts and filtering their way along the Channel, Thames Valley, Central Belt and Midlands. In the Highlands temperatures of -20C are more than likely.

  • The period 14th-21st of Febuary should see the cold continuing during the early stages. However the high pressure over Scandanavia will begin to show signs of fading and this should result in another messy breakdown. The first few days may see some record breaking temperatures and snowfall should increase. However low pressure systems should be able to come near or cross the UK bringing the threat of very large battleground snowfalls in the West. However in the east, there could be asmuch as a 10C difference with an easterly influence and some snow showers. Eventually, each front should gradually creep further east across the UK with precipiation in the far west falling as rain in milder temperatures and very heavy snow falling for anywhere further east. In far eastern areas, the temperatures will be at their lowest and 10C lower than that of the rest of the UK. Once the Atlantic eventually wins, temperatures in the North and East may still be slightly below average and in the south and west it will be slightly milder.

  • The month should end under with a milder Atlantic influence with some very mild temperatures in the South West, however further North and East, and particulary Scotland it will feel, much, much cooler in cool-cold zonality and still further prospects of wintry weather.

AWT

CET Values:

December (4.5C), January (1.7C), February (1.6C) = Overall a below average winter.

That's my Final update for the winter forecast and the one that I'm most happy with.

Edited by A Winter's Tale
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

Nice job AWT. Pretty much the same expectancy of Rampling's forecast but good focus on description of the cold and snow likely in January-February. Now we have a good forecast from Rampling describing the scientific aspects and a description of the cold and snow by you!

And again we are looking at a reverse of last winter- the start being the mildest and end being the coldest. Plus, I think these sort of forecasts do tell us we may have a month as cold as last December in February (a lot of people are saying 'while it may be a bit on the cold side, we won't be getting a month like December 2010 this winter'.

Edited by Tellow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
That's my Final update for the winter forecast and the one that I'm most happy with.

Thank you for that AWT, very full and explanatory. I'll be watching to see see how this pans out for you over the next few months!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

AWT's forecast would give us a winter CET of 2.6c. That's colder than last years... interesting.

Well January and ultimately February pulled up last winters CET.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Well, I like AWT's forecast, it fits nicely with Mark Vogans switch mid december to something all together more wintry and cold.

Edited by MadSnowboarder
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Yes last winter saw an extremely cold month, a chilly month and a very mild month. This year I expect the mildest month (December) to be closer to if not slighlty below average and for two below average months but nothing as extreme as December 2010. I think it sounds feasable that this winter could be colder than last year if things turn out right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

Well, I like AWT's forecast, it fits nicely with Mark Vogans switch mid december to something all together more wintry and cold.

To be honest, I disagree that the two forecasts fit as AWT's snow and cold comes after mid-January whilst the worst ends at that point in Vogan's. No disrespect to either guys though.

Yes last winter saw an extremely cold month, a chilly month and a very mild month. This year I expect the mildest month (December) to be closer to if not slighlty below average and for two below average months but nothing as extreme as December 2010. I think it sounds feasable that this winter could be colder than last year if things turn out right.

Yeah, I think a lot of people think last winter was extremely cold throughout, remembering the cold December and forgetting mild February.

Edited by Tellow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

To be honest, I disagree that the two forecasts fit as AWT's snow and cold comes after mid-January whilst the worst ends at that point in Vogan's. No disrespect to either guys though.

Yeah, I think a lot of people think last winter was extremely cold throughout, remembering the cold December and forgetting mild February.

You're right enough. Perhaps a blend of the two forecasts, Mark Vogans mid december start and AWT's to finish.? Now that would be a treat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...