Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Aaron]

The long range CFS models aren't forecasting a big freeze nor a 'big heat' (?). The Met Office aren't on board with anything, they don't issue such forecasts anymore.

Personally, I take the CFS model with a pinch of salt, they update every day which makes it very difficult to create a pattern.

Edited October 19, 2011 by Aaron

[stewfox]

The long range CFS models aren't forecasting a big freeze nor a 'big heat' (?). The Met Office aren't on board with anything, they don't issue such forecasts anymore.

Personally, I take the CFS model with a pinch of salt, they update every day which makes it very difficult to create a pattern.

I think the Met do but not to Jo Public anymore.

[ukpaul]

The long range CFS models aren't forecasting a big freeze nor a 'big heat' (?). The Met Office aren't on board with anything, they don't issue such forecasts anymore.

Personally, I take the CFS model with a pinch of salt, they update every day which makes it very difficult to create a pattern.

Yes, nobody knows anything at the moment.

To tell the truth most people at the moment are hedging their bets, going for a sort of middle muddle, that way they can't be totally wrong; whatever figures they use it's still just a hunch as to how things will pan out, whatever they plump for.

Suggesting that the frequency of a forecaster's posts are concrete evidence of something is just trolling however.

[musicman2000]

Anyone noticed how quiet James Madden has suddenly gone, it has been him who has been the lead Amature forecaster in saying this winter was going to be very cold and snowy now it's almost a month since his website has been updated, i wonder why?

He must of read your post updated today

A mild winter on the cards?

This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.

As in my last update on the 2^nd September 2011.

I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.

THIS STILL STANDS!

This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

November 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

December 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

January 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.

February 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 19^th October2011 (14:45) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

[AWD]

I thought I would add my amatuer opinion on the upcoming winter! Is not so much a forecast as i have little experience in producing scientifically based LRF's! It's more obseving recent weather patterns and long range charts , along with nature itself, the way nature is currently acting and from personal opinions of a couple of experts I admire!

I have taken into account a couple of weather related phenomans, such as the predicted La Nina, global sea temps and predicted warming and cooling and what's happening stateside ( jet etc )!

November I expect to start off drier than average with temps average in the north, slightly above average in the south! As the month goes on I expect Atlantic based depressions to start making inroads, with wind and rain become promanent across the country, especially so in the west! This continues towards the end of November with a Atlantic showery flow establishing itself over the country, maybe bringing wintriness to Scotland but nowhere else!

December I think will start of with the showery Atlantic flow but this will soon ease with blocking somewhere over the eastern side of the Uk/North sea, quieting things down and bringing a south easterly flow over the country! A prolonged dry, settled spell is what I'll go for in December, temps average in the west, slightly below average in the east! Towards the new year, I think a mild southerly then south westerly flow will tame over, bringing depressions north east over the country! Could be very md and wet in western and south western England!

January, I think, will start of as December ended, mild and relatively wet! However, i think once again things will settle down with HP becoming established over Greenland or the Atlantic and a cold but dry flow over the UK! I think this could be the coldest spell of the winter, with cold air coming down from the north, giving "a wishbone effect" for the country, snow showers especially along the north and eastern coasts! Towards the end of January, LP will eventually erode the HP from the west/south west and maybe provide some battleground snow over southern England briefly before winning out and a average westerly regime taking hold, though still possibly cold enough for some snow in Scotland!

Febuary, I think, will be predominetly westerly based, with some rain for all, but drier and brighter interludes! Temps overall slightly above average! Towards the extreme end of the month and into the beginning of March I think a short lived easterly will happen, providing some end of winter snow for southern and eastern England before a drier and warmer springlike system enroaches!

Once again, this is just a overview of how I would favour things to go, after observing different weather related websites, science and nature! For a more educated LRF, ask an expert!!!

To summarise, a fairly mild winter to come, but drier than normal! There will be cold spells but these will be very shortlived, apart from mid January when a prolonged dry cold spell cod occur! CET in November and December above average, January slightly below and Febuary and March again above average!!

I am not expecting a prolonged cold and snowy winter, and i am a cold fan!!!

[NorthernRab]

First dig of the season at the Ptarmigan, Cairngorm, Scottish Highlands (from Facebook)

[Isolated Frost]

First dig of the season at the Ptarmigan, Cairngorm, Scottish Highlands (from Facebook)

Wow - them isolated showers must have been quite potent!

[summer blizzard]

hi SB

thanks for the posts you have made regarding -ve AO and -NAO in October and subsequent winters.

Maybe its my old eyes but I did not see which Octobers with AO of -1 had at least one winter month with a -1 AO.

Can you point me to that please?

thanks

I did not actually list the October years, i will do so now...

October

2009

2006

2002

1981

1979

1974 - the exception

1968

1966

1960

November

2002

2000

1998

1985

1980

1968

1965

1962

1959

1957

1955

1952

[Summer Sun]

He must of read your post updated today

A mild winter on the cards?

This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.

As in my last update on the 2^nd September 2011.

I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.

THIS STILL STANDS!

This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

November 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

December 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

January 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.

February 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 19^th October2011 (14:45) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

lol he must of, so he still thinks it's going to be cold and snowy, only time will tell

[summer blizzard]

I took the data for AO values from 1950 up to the present and used the suggestion made by SB that if either October or November showed a value of -1.0 or more then on 85% of occasions at least 1 winter month showed a value of -1.0 or more.

The link actually goes back further if you expand the August-September range to -0.5 rather than -1 to get a -1> winter month (expanded because only 3 Augusts and Septembers saw AO values of -1 or greater excluding August 2011 although they alone still confirm the link).

October: 88%

November: 83%

For this to be tested fully, in my view, you also have to test those instances where there are no -1.0 AO values in October or November and see what those years give-the null test is it?

Summing up.... Between 1950 and 2011 there were 19 Oct/Nov months with the AO at or below -1.0

The number of winters with at least 1 month showing an AO of -1.0 or greater was 15 or 79% with 2 having 2 months=10.5%

I count 21, 9 Octobers and 12 Novembers.

I only count 3 winters that did not see such repetition, so 85% if i was correct rather than 79%.

Testing the null case, that is when neither Oct nor Nov showed a value of -1.0 or more and seeing what that result gave showed the following.

There were 37 years that satisfied this criteria. In 21 of these years at least 1 winter month had an AO of -1.0 or more=57%, of these 7 had 2 winter months=19%

In neither instance was there ever a 3 month winter period showing the AO of -1.0 or more for each month.

Winters 2010, 1977, 1970 and 1959 saw all three winter months with -1> AO values. Only winter 2010 was part of our sample however (also the most -AO winter on record and most -AO October on record).

Quite what one makes of those statistics I am unsure. To me, and I may be wrong as I am no statistician, I do not think the case can be made that there is a sufficiently strong set of results to justify being able to use either the initial case nor the null case. Indeed that may be why no meteorological centre appears to use this data.

I suspect that this may be one of those cases where we need some statistician to compute several complicated graphs and charts to identify a firm link/dispute one.

What i draw from the statistics is that a highly negative AO month during Autumn does correlate to at least 1 highly negative AO winter month (with around a 20% increase in comparison to low amplitude Autumn AO values) however it does not tell us anything more than that really.

I know some say it’s the AO that governs what the NAO shows but I will try and do a similar test for the NAO data and see what that comes up with. I have no idea what it will show.

Looks forward to it.

What i may do actually is look at the winters months in our sample and see if there is a link between a particular month (eg.. October - January ect..).

[UV-RAY]

lol he must of, so he still thinks it's going to be cold and snowy, only time will tell

lol he must of, so he still thinks it's going to be cold and snowy, only time will tell

Well when winter starts and finishes be sure to e-mail him, but until then here's an idea, lets wait until winter starts.

[summer blizzard]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71291-temperature-and-frost-watch-19th-to-20th-of-october-2011/page__st__20

For the winter lovers who have not seen the thread yet, we are watching the race for an air frost. Several places below 2C now.

[Staffordshire]

I must say I'm trusting James Madden this winter afterall he did call the summer preety well?!

[Aaron]

People shouldn't be so quick to write off James Madden, he is after all giving valid reasons as to why he thinks this winter will be cold.

[Ruzzi]

Very deep FI throwing up a nice N'ly tonight, I know it will have changed by tomorrow morning, but we can live in hope!

[scotty_boy_winter]

Pws's track record is shamblolic! I have no idea why businesses pay these clueless guys because I get the feeling there knowledge is very limited! I think some of the senior forecasters on here I.e Gp, John Holmes are some of the best in the country

Erm...i somehow don't think that PWS is right.....what ever happened to waiting to november

James madden only writes what people want to hear, his knowledge is very limited. I can see why people are quoting him as its what people like to believe might happen. If you heard Paul Hudson on look north he said based on current projections from the european weather agency that there is 0% chance of this year being colder than the last. Watch the episode on the net. He is very confident of this and don't forget he is a trained professional unlike James madden and unlike everyone else on here

People shouldn't be so quick to write off James Madden, he is after all giving valid reasons as to why he thinks this winter will be cold.

[Aaron]

There is never a 0% chance.. that would be very unprofessional of Paul Hudson to say that.

You also don't know whether or not James Madden has a limited knowledge in meteorology. I wish people wouldn't jump to conclusions like this, it's narrow-minded.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Aaron

[scotty_boy_winter]

He quoted that and was questioned by the look north team and he replied, look I guarantee we will not be colder than last year and went on to call the cold weather forecasts by some amateur website/forecasters as ridiculous I.e net-weather, two and so on. You have to agree that some of the forecast attempts by small websites over what professionals and supercomputers the Matt office use is a little bit outrageous? Like a non league footballer claiming he's better than messi? Lol

There is never a 0% chance.. that would be very unprofessional of Paul Hudson to say that.

[Aaron]

Look at how many times the Met Office make a boob of their forecasts from time to time - big fancy computers don't mean you're any better. Plus, they're not forecasting anything, they stopped that after making a giant mess of their previous long-range one, compared to some independent ones which got last year almost spot on.

Nobody is saying this winter will be colder than last (which overall was not even very cold), though it CANNOT be ruled out. Anything is possible, things can change so quickly in the world of weather and nothing is written in stone.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Aaron

[scotty_boy_winter]

I agree with what your saying but independent forecaster will get lucky with forecasts. The fact of the matter is the met are more "likely" to get there forecast right more than a website like this one and as such comments from mr Hudson should be taken very very very seriously. I would suggest with how strongly worded his opinion was and how sure he was that this year could well be a mild one. It's very unusual to hear him nail his colours to the mast like that. Also I have a relative who works with the senior forecasters. Their general unofficial consensus is they are 80 - 90 % confident of an Atlantic dominated winter

[quote name=Aaron' timestamp='1319069495'

post='2147165]

Look at how many times the Met Office make a boob of their forecasts from time to time - big fancy computers don't mean you're any better. Plus, they're not forecasting anything, they stopped that after making a giant mess of their previous long-range one, compared to some independent ones which got last year almost spot on.

Nobody is saying this winter will be colder than last (which overall was not even very cold), though it CANNOT be ruled out. Anything is possible, things can change so quickly in the world of weather and nothing is written in stone.

[Aaron]

So, wait, are you saying this year will be a mild one, or just not colder than last year? Which one is it?

I'm very doubtful of what you're saying, unless you have valid sources. No Met Office senior forecaster would make such an outlandish claim, especially so early in the season.

Anyway, a primarily Atlantic dominated winter does not mean a cold spell won't occur at any point.. last winter was largely average - above average except December.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Aaron

[ZONE 51]

Im thinking about the jet stream in all this, it is likely to move south as its not gone very far north and usually moves someway south after summertime, the jet stream to me is known as the storm rider, the motorway for low pressure systems, this is one main factor to consider on deciding weather or not an altantic winter is to be

[ZONE 51]

He quoted that and was questioned by the look north team and he replied, look I guarantee we will not be colder than last year and went on to call the cold weather forecasts by some amateur website/forecasters as ridiculous I.e net-weather, two and so on. You have to agree that some of the forecast attempts by small websites over what professionals and supercomputers the Matt office use is a little bit outrageous? Like a non league footballer claiming he's better than messi? Lol

I would like to have seen that.

I think its very good that we have amateur forecasters on here making forecasts and seeing how things turn out, and im one that is predicting cold and snowy periods, we must realise what december 2010 bought us was so extreme that even half that would produce what cold lovers want, giving a no chance of hitting decembers or january 2010 extremes just does not seem predictable at this stage, the dec10 hit us like solid block of ice, how can we know how severe a cold spell will be until its on the doorstep? we cant, and the snow cover over Europe is one factor in dipping the AO as far as i have learnt from scientists!

Edited October 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

CFS and the last run!! , ive been keeping track and the cold does makes it down into Europe shown here, its there! its biting into it thats all thats needed, as i stated in my lrf preview i am expecting a northeasterly flow later in november as the cold pools in across Europe, building over Scandinavia in november, its so long away this chart but its continuing the pattern over the last few weeks-trends!

now is the most exciting time!

Edited October 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

i know its crazy nearly everyone on the forum can go from not a chance of a cold winter to a cold winter being certain in the space of a day!! lol.

Check out some more here - http://www.dailymail...9610/index.html

Edited October 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm