Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[summer blizzard]

Thanks for the specifics on Katla, i'd originally only referred to it as a potential short term and minor disturbance, looks like it wouldn't be any more than that, thankfully.

As for another Laki being 'good', given the effect last time I'm not sure I really want all that to happen again!!

Fair point, i am not sure i want Flourine poisoning either.

I would be happy to discuss Laki as much as you like in the volcanic activity thread (space, science and nature section) but there is a theory that Iceland could be the next Siberian Traps forming and Laki is just the first step.

Explosive eruptions can have an effect but in terms of a colder winter we need SO2 and to get SO2 we need duration over strength really.

[ZONE 51]

Winter forecast preview:

Factors:

• ENSO(La-Nina)
  
• PDO
  
• QBO
  
• Watching AO/NAO
  
• Solar Activity
  
• Volcanic dusts delayed atmospheric effects
  
• Ocean temperatures
  
• Jet stream
  

Outlook: November - early month, mild spells with gales widespread, mid month cold and snowy from the northeast after a northerly this producing our first widespread snowfall, end of the month seeing a milder period before high pressure leads us up into a cold and frosty December, eventually snowfall becomes widespread from the northeast into the first and second week , i expect a significant spell of snowfall during this period, this to affect most areas that see most snow from northeasterlys, i see the potential for at least one storm from the atlantic during this month, hitting the northwest, into January and lows crossing France could bring snowfall to southern areas, while high pressure sits over areas further north.

Winter 2011/12:

• below average temperatures
  
• less widespread rainfall
  
• drier then average
  
• well above average widespread snowfall
  
• higher risk of blizzards in january as atlantic fires up
  
• more high pressure than normal early winter
  
• disruptive widespread snow events - even into inland southeast England
  
• more frost and fog than normal due to high pressure and snowfall events
  
• overall i predict a very cold and snowy winter, affecting all areas, many signifIcant and disruptive snowfall events throughout winter, i expect mid november to be the first period of cold and snow for many areas especially the east.
  
• late winter seeing more snowy battleground situations then last winter
  
• cold conditions slower to move away and continuing into late january, i expect february to be mild periods but with cold spells, spring warmth to come much later, i dont see a quick warm up, february could be a snowy month depends on how active the atlantic becomes and if it brings in milder air faster, although i think a quite atlantic to end winter.
  

ESS

Edited October 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Optimus Prime]

Some interesting factors you've included there ElectricSnowStorm

[A Winter's Tale]

AWT Winter Forecast Version 2

November:

I expect November to begin on a mild, unsettled note with widespread, (and needed) heavy, prolonged rainfall aswell as some occasional gales. In between low pressure systems may bring cooler and more settled conditions.

I still expect an active Atlantic as we head into the second week of November and flooding may become an issue for places such as Lake District, Argyll, Stirlingshire, Perthshire and Moray. I also assume that there may be some damaging gusts over Southern and Central Scotland (perhaps NI) and it should be windy elsewhere. Temperatures still above the norm.

Following the unsettled activity of atlantic depressions, I expect high pressure to build over Greenland to produce the first taste of winter. For a period of 4-8 days near the middle of November, I expect northerly winds to bring some snow and cold. The worst of any snow will be in Northern and Western Scotland and Northern Ireland, elsewhere, it should be cold with some ice days with winter sunshine, and widespread frosts by night. I don't expect this cold spell to be anywhere near as bad as November 2010.

After a fairly notable cold spell, I briefly expect the Atlantic to take the driving seat again which may produce large snowfalls for the Scottish Mountains. The threat of high pressure is evident although current conditions continue to remain unsettled and milder than average.

To end November, I expect another Greenland High, only this time it's larger than the last one meaning a more prolonged and severe cold spell. As the jet sinks south, I expect the flood gates to open for cold air, beginning with cold but settled conditions under a NNE airflow with any snow restricted to Aberdeenshire and the NE. However, winds should then change to more of an easterly (perhaps western areas remain to a Northerly airflow) and this should bring the threat of colder and snowier conditions. There could be some large snow depths with persistent and heavy snow showers coming off the North Sea and potentially bringing distruption to NE and E England, E and C Scotland.

December:

The first meterological month of winter shall start where November left off with cold and snowy conditions. I expect the start of December to see progressively colder and snowier conditions than the end of November as snow starts to become more widespread and temperatures barely reach freezing during the day and sub minus 10 should be quite common in the Highlands with -20 becoming a possibilty aswell as -10 in northern cities and towns also becoming quite likely.

The intensity of the snowfall should start to decrease as we head further into the 1st and 2nd weeks of the December although the cold should become more of an issue. Winds may change back to more of a N/NNEly, although this should be short lived as I expect High Pressure in Greenland to move further South and East to bring a milder, southerly airflow as we head toward mid month. This should melt all snow in the south although some lying snow should remain in the north. Drizzle and rain may be present, however sunny spells shouldn't be too far away.

The milder weather should end as we leave mid month and head towards Christmas as High Pressure develops in the Atlantic and moves northwards to Greenland. The snowfall in this renewed freeze shouldn't be the major feature as in the last spell as I don't expect large, widespread snowfall on a daily basis with some very large and heavy snowfalls to fall in different areas with lengthy daily intervals between snowfalls with flurries being the only precipitation between snowy activity. The coldness should be the main feature with clearer and calmer conditions and the potential for some record breaking temperatures.

The Christmas period should be notably cold with some snowfall, particulary in the NW and NE. The period following Christmas should see less in the way of snowfall and little change in temperatures in a fairly unactive period of weather. I expect this to continue through the New Year.

January:

The New Year should begin very cold with widespread snow cover although snowfall should only be confined to Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of Northern England where snow depths could be notably large. On the whole, it should be sunny with some flurries and the odd larger snowfall every few days. However as we head towards the end of the first week of the year I expect the Atlantic to kick start with low pressure systems being sent to the South of England and Wales with the potential of some large snowfalls.

The start of the second week of the new year should see the Atlantic finally win with all areas except the Shetland Isleas under a milder and unsettled air flow resulting in melting of snow. This period of Atlantic dominated weather should persist for a duration of around two weeks, however spells inbetween depressions will be sunny and perhaps cold with northerly plunges and this could result in some battleground snowfalls in Scotland.

Into the fourth week, I expect the UK to be under anticylconic conditions with frosts at night and sunny days. However, towards the end of the week, heights should yet again begin to build over in Scandinavia which should bring a spell of cold and snowy weather to Southern and Eastern parts of England.

Following this cold spell, I expect milder weather to take hold from the last week of January with the Atlantic active.

Febuary:

Febuary should start quite mild with a southerly airflow over the UK, however I expect High Pressure to build over the UK which should bring cooler conditions.

After this period of settled conditions, I expect the Atlantic to kick start again, however this time, I expect some cold, northerly shots from the Artirc inbetween low pressure systems and this could result in some snow showers aswell as battleground snowfalls as other low pressure systems arrive.

Following this, I fully expect Spring to arrive, with milder and settled conditions with any cold restricted to Scotland during brief cooler periods. Overall, it should be a dry end to Febuary, but the end could see a hint of the jet stream moving over the UK.

Overall, I expect Winter 2011/2012 to be below average with three severe cold spells between November and January. However I do expect a balanced mixture of atlantic depressions, anticylones, mild southerly air flows aswell as brief and sharp cold spells.

[Lauren]

I'm getting pretty fed up of people saying 'oooooh it's supposed to be getting very cold at the end of the month and they (forecasters I presume) are saying it won't be long till it snows. We've got a cold spell coming'.

Well yes, it happens every year. IT'S CALLED WINTER.

To clarify I don't mean people on here. i mean other people.

Edited October 17, 2011 by Lauren

[Aaron]

I'm getting pretty fed up of people saying 'oooooh it's supposed to be getting very cold at the end of the month and they (forecasters I presume) are saying it won't be long till it snows. We've got a cold spell coming'.

Well yes, it happens every year. IT'S CALLED WINTER.

Cold spells don't necessarily happen ever year, nor is a British winter very cold..

Edited October 17, 2011 by Aaron

[trisnow]

I'm getting pretty fed up of people saying 'oooooh it's supposed to be getting very cold at the end of the month and they (forecasters I presume) are saying it won't be long till it snows. We've got a cold spell coming'.

Well yes, it happens every year. IT'S CALLED WINTER.

Forgive me but isn't that the whole point of a weather forum? To discuss the weather regarless of whether it is a given what we know the season should bring?

Edited October 17, 2011 by trisnow

[EML Network]

Seeing as its Forecast time, I thought I'd quickly pop my'n in just for fun :-)..I have kept JAN & FEB short, as at this stage , i'm only really guessing what may occur, and it depends how close I get to Decembers prediction, if I'm miles off the Mrk for Dec, then it's likely my Jan / Feb will follow suite..but anyway here goes nothing...

December : Likely to start off mild, the jet stream stradding across the middle of the UK as an average position , and quite strong, with strengthy winds blowing in off the atlantic, from a series of potent LP systems feeding in and centered over NW Scotland, as the LP systems move off East, they drag in colder air, and this brings some further snow fall to the Scottish Hills and Mountains, with a wintery mix to the tops of the hills on the North of the UK, heavy rain for a time elsewhere.

A windy picture to start Dec for the vast majority of the UK, milder in the SE, about average temperatures for the Midlands, Wales, and the SW, always colder the further North one goes

A damp and overcast start for the majority, not many exceptions to this rule, bar perhps the East Coastal fringes of the UK.

HP begins to build to the South of the UK taking up residence across the South and West , feeding in with it a more settled theme to all bar the extreme north of Scotland as we enter mid month, winds fall light, and there's plenty of brighness to be had.

Hard frosts overnight UK wide, as the winds ease.

Sotland still effected by more unstelled weather to the North, where from time to time, the feed is coming from immediate North, keeping temperatures here cool, more snow on the mountains, and a wintery mix to low levels of Sc otland, from the border south it will feel cold during the day, and especially by night, some fog and mist around early morning.

As we enter the start of the festive season I see Omega blocking becoming more persistent with HP having drifted off more to the West of the UK, allowing an ever increasing NE 'sterly feed to start effecting the NE of the Country, winds pick up, and in the extreme NE of Scotland and England temperatures drop like a stone with an increasing wind chilll factor being felt.

Plenty of lengthy spells of snow here, with some large accumulations.

Wetsern areas more under the influence of HP, so here a significantly brighter period, still cold, but dry, wind gentle winds, the border line between to two systems will see some snow, and a mixture of ''wintery precipitation".

To the south of the UK, condisions will be about average on both temperature, sunshine amounts, and drier to start with, perhaps falling more and more under the influence of LP as it drifts down from the NE.

X-Mas and into the new year.

This is where I can see a large scale change taking place, as LP moves West to be centered for a time over the UK, before HP exters itself more and it slips off East and South, in January, before this hapens the East of the UK, and the SE, have a chance of seeing some decent snow fall, and the weather direction is now more from the NE than from the West, or South.

I don't believe the feed from the East will ever make it's way as far West as Ireland, and for a time a good old battleground set up might be in effect in this area as we head into 2012, effecting the SW of the country for a time, with some snow here and in Wales on the very tops of the hills , sleety mix elsewhere.

For scotland I can see both a white x-mas and a white new years here, directly from the effects of the NE sterly.

Jan 2012 : - I think that the first few days will see some cold conditions UK wide, some laying snow still around in the SE, SC England, Eastern Parts of Wales, and N.Ireland, NE England, and Scotland.

LP gives way to HP from the West sinking southwards, and allowing the Altantic to come in.

Temperatures nationwide lift as a result, but with it comes the threat of string winds, and rain.

A gloomy month to start with for most, and a quick thaw of any lying snow.

Mid January I believe HP to be sitting to the South of the UK, allowing the feed to be coming more from a NW terly, mild to the South, and South West, slightly cooler to the East, but coldder in the North West, and Scotland.

Still quite windy, especialy in Scotland with some heavy rain here, falling as snow over the scottish mountains where blizzard conditions will be felt.

January ends with temperatures about everage for much of the country, however I believe HP once again finds it's way to our West, and centered closer to Iceland this time, and as we come into Feb, i blieve winter will really start to be felt.

FEB: A bitterly easterly driven front will push right across the UK brigning with it, cold daytime and exceptionally cold night time temperatures, winds a little strong , and lots of snow falling out of the sky, effecting the whole country.

HP slow to move from the NW of the UK, and HP also effecting Scandinavia allowing the LP system to dump a lot of moisture over the UK, as it becomes sandwiched between the 2 systems...before finally running out of steam and allowing HP to feed in from the West

I think FEB 2012 will make headlines, and will be a month to remember.

summary :So Overal I think Dec will be cold(ish), nothing like last winter, and a lot dryer for the majortiy.

Jan will be a pretty unsettled moth with no real dominant pattern

Feb will be COLD and snowy

There that's my half hearted attempt...take it or leave it, but at least I had a go

Jay

Edited October 17, 2011 by EML Network

[Lauren]

Forgive me but isn't that the whole point of a weather forum? To discuss the weather regarless of whether it is a given what we know the season should bring?

Sorry I have edited and clarified I don't mean people on here, but others.

The way people talk about it you'd think it was news that, shock horror, winter happens to be cold!

Edited October 17, 2011 by Lauren

[greybing]

AWT Winter Forecast Version 2

November:

I expect November to begin on a mild, unsettled note with widespread, (and needed) heavy, prolonged rainfall aswell as some occasional gales. In between low pressure systems may bring cooler and more settled conditions.

I still expect an active Atlantic as we head into the second week of November and flooding may become an issue for places such as Lake District, Argyll, Stirlingshire, Perthshire and Moray. I also assume that there may be some damaging gusts over Southern and Central Scotland (perhaps NI) and it should be windy elsewhere. Temperatures still above the norm.

Following the unsettled activity of atlantic depressions, I expect high pressure to build over Greenland to produce the first taste of winter. For a period of 4-8 days near the middle of November, I expect northerly winds to bring some snow and cold. The worst of any snow will be in Northern and Western Scotland and Northern Ireland, elsewhere, it should be cold with some ice days with winter sunshine, and widespread frosts by night. I don't expect this cold spell to be anywhere near as bad as November 2010.

After a fairly notable cold spell, I briefly expect the Atlantic to take the driving seat again which may produce large snowfalls for the Scottish Mountains. The threat of high pressure is evident although current conditions continue to remain unsettled and milder than average.

To end November, I expect another Greenland High, only this time it's larger than the last one meaning a more prolonged and severe cold spell. As the jet sinks south, I expect the flood gates to open for cold air, beginning with cold but settled conditions under a NNE airflow with any snow restricted to Aberdeenshire and the NE. However, winds should then change to more of an easterly (perhaps western areas remain to a Northerly airflow) and this should bring the threat of colder and snowier conditions. There could be some large snow depths with persistent and heavy snow showers coming off the North Sea and potentially bringing distruption to NE and E England, E and C Scotland.

December:

The first meterological month of winter shall start where November left off with cold and snowy conditions. I expect the start of December to see progressively colder and snowier conditions than the end of November as snow starts to become more widespread and temperatures barely reach freezing during the day and sub minus 10 should be quite common in the Highlands with -20 becoming a possibilty aswell as -10 in northern cities and towns also becoming quite likely.

The intensity of the snowfall should start to decrease as we head further into the 1st and 2nd weeks of the December although the cold should become more of an issue. Winds may change back to more of a N/NNEly, although this should be short lived as I expect High Pressure in Greenland to move further South and East to bring a milder, southerly airflow as we head toward mid month. This should melt all snow in the south although some lying snow should remain in the north. Drizzle and rain may be present, however sunny spells shouldn't be too far away.

The milder weather should end as we leave mid month and head towards Christmas as High Pressure develops in the Atlantic and moves northwards to Greenland. The snowfall in this renewed freeze shouldn't be the major feature as in the last spell as I don't expect large, widespread snowfall on a daily basis with some very large and heavy snowfalls to fall in different areas with lengthy daily intervals between snowfalls with flurries being the only precipitation between snowy activity. The coldness should be the main feature with clearer and calmer conditions and the potential for some record breaking temperatures.

The Christmas period should be notably cold with some snowfall, particulary in the NW and NE. The period following Christmas should see less in the way of snowfall and little change in temperatures in a fairly unactive period of weather. I expect this to continue through the New Year.

January:

The New Year should begin very cold with widespread snow cover although snowfall should only be confined to Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of Northern England where snow depths could be notably large. On the whole, it should be sunny with some flurries and the odd larger snowfall every few days. However as we head towards the end of the first week of the year I expect the Atlantic to kick start with low pressure systems being sent to the South of England and Wales with the potential of some large snowfalls.

The start of the second week of the new year should see the Atlantic finally win with all areas except the Shetland Isleas under a milder and unsettled air flow resulting in melting of snow. This period of Atlantic dominated weather should persist for a duration of around two weeks, however spells inbetween depressions will be sunny and perhaps cold with northerly plunges and this could result in some battleground snowfalls in Scotland.

Into the fourth week, I expect the UK to be under anticylconic conditions with frosts at night and sunny days. However, towards the end of the week, heights should yet again begin to build over in Scandinavia which should bring a spell of cold and snowy weather to Southern and Eastern parts of England.

Following this cold spell, I expect milder weather to take hold from the last week of January with the Atlantic active.

Febuary:

Febuary should start quite mild with a southerly airflow over the UK, however I expect High Pressure to build over the UK which should bring cooler conditions.

After this period of settled conditions, I expect the Atlantic to kick start again, however this time, I expect some cold, northerly shots from the Artirc inbetween low pressure systems and this could result in some snow showers aswell as battleground snowfalls as other low pressure systems arrive.

Following this, I fully expect Spring to arrive, with milder and settled conditions with any cold restricted to Scotland during brief cooler periods. Overall, it should be a dry end to Febuary, but the end could see a hint of the jet stream moving over the UK.

Overall, I expect Winter 2011/2012 to be below average with three severe cold spells between November and January. However I do expect a balanced mixture of atlantic depressions, anticylones, mild southerly air flows aswell as brief and sharp cold spells.

what is your basis for this forecast, just out of interest.

Cold spells don't necessarily happen ever year, nor is a British winter very cold..

An average winter produces cold spells interspersed usually with milder interludes .Even in the mildest of winters it has snowed in my neck of the woods.I can not remember one winter when snow did not at least fall and frost was not present.Admittedly I can only speak for my area.

Edited October 17, 2011 by greybing

[A Winter's Tale]

what is your basis for this forecast, just out of interest.

La Nina, Solar Activity, Current Weather patters, past weather patterns

[trisnow]

Sorry I have edited and clarified I don't mean people on here, but others.

The way people talk about it you'd think it was news that, shock horror, winter happens to be cold!

Ahhh sorry! and - YES it better be! I think a lot of us are getting our hopes up. I know I am, I love reading the posts on here that start to build up a picture of what we can hopefully expect.

[Isolated Frost]

La Nina, Solar Activity, Current Weather patters, past weather patterns

How does La Nina and Solar Activity affect our weather please?

[Met4Cast]

Winter 2011/12 Weather Forecast

Method;

- ENSO

- Solar Activity

- QBO

- Sea Surface Patterns

November:

After a generally unsettled, milder start to the month, High Pressure will quickly begin to develop towards the North and West of the United Kingdom bringing in much cooler continential air, the first snowfalls will begin to affect Northern and Eastern England, quickly spreading to produce widespread heavy snowfall with temperatures struggling to get above freezing, the cold isnt likely to be as intense as November 2010 however, with temperatures recovering from time to time, before becoming freezing again. Worst of the snowfall is likely to fall in the North and East of England.

December:

December will start off where November left off, generally cold and snowy, as we move towards the second week of the month, I expect that we’ll see a slight thaw as Low Pressure begins to enrode away at the High Pressure. Northern areas may stay cold with some snow, however further south it’ll turn milder for a short time before High Pressure re-establishes itself, allowing colder air to flood Southwards again. Christmas sees snowfall across the North and East, the South and West will be cold, but generally dry and sunny.

January:

As we move into January, a combination of a Westerly QBO and slightly stronger ENSO will result in a more mobile, mixed weather pattern. High Pressure to the North of the UK will begin to weaken, this will allow low pressure systems to enrode into Southern parts of the United Kingdom turning things milder and a little more unsettled, having said that, from time to time the colder air will flood across Southern parts once again. So, January sees a middle ground scenario, generally cool, with milder spells becoming increasingly frequent, particularly towards the end of the month.

February:

High Pressure will finally lose its touch and begin to sink Southwards across the United Kingdom thanks to a stronger La Nina, this will turn things generally settled for a time during the beginning of the month, however as we head towards the middle and second half of the month, High Pressure will continue to slide to the South of the UK, allowing Low Pressure systems bringing more unsettled weather to parts of the North.

Confidence in this forecast is lower than usual due to conflicting signals, the further into winter this forecast goes, the lower confidence drops. Please pay attention to montly forecasts on the main page for more accurate, medium range weather forecasting.

Winter as a whole: Below Average temperatures, drier than average.

I've pasted and copied the main part of my forecast above, but I do go into more detail about the drivers behind the forecast with charts to illustrate on my blog.

http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-20112012/

(I don't know if its okay to post the link to it or not, I assume because its weather related and because I've posted my forecast here, that it'll be okay, if not, please feel free to remove the link mods)

[Cheese Rice]

Might see the odd flake of snow over the next few days BBC seem to think snow line around 300M.

[bobbydog]

I'm getting pretty fed up of people saying 'oooooh it's supposed to be getting very cold at the end of the month and they (forecasters I presume) are saying it won't be long till it snows. We've got a cold spell coming'.

Well yes, it happens every year. IT'S CALLED WINTER.

To clarify I don't mean people on here. i mean other people.

thats because people keep seeing newspaper headlines, all reporting the ramblings of that idiot, James Madden!

a little part of me hopes we have a mild winter, just so he crawls back under his rock!!

[Snowmad79]

Might see the odd flake of snow over the next few days BBC seem to think snow line around 300M.

Over the Cairgnorm mountains certainly possible and maybe something wintry for those who live on the peaks of northern most pennines and thats about it I'd say. Chilly for most though

[Cheese Rice]

Over the Cairgnorm mountains certainly possible and maybe something wintry for those who live on the peaks of northern most pennines and thats about it I'd say. Chilly for most though

Duno.. it was Paul Hudson for BBC look north who put the snow line at 300M.

Anyway, had some very heavy hail in the squall line.

[19jacobob93]

Duno.. it was Paul Hudson for BBC look north who put the snow line at 300M.

Anyway, had some very heavy hail in the squall line.

That would mean I'd see a fair bit, but the lowest daily max this week is 7°C, to be honest I can't see there been any snow below 600-700m outside of Scotland

[Aaron]

Well snow is not forecast!

[ZONE 51]

Reading earlier on ,must say im enjoying the winter forecasts!

Anyway here is an interesting outlook on the winter ahead - http://www.landschei...nfo/?q=node/224

if you would like to see what they said last year see this link - http://www.landschei...nfo/?q=node/189

-

Teleconnections - http://www.cpc.ncep....k/pna/nao.shtml

Edited October 18, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Isolated Frost]

That would mean I'd see a fair bit, but the lowest daily max this week is 7°C, to be honest I can't see there been any snow below 600-700m outside of Scotland

I expect widespread snow in parts of Scotland above 200-300m on Wednesday, especially evening, with Aberdeen getting possibly hit (or at least the outskirts).

On Wednesday, the uppers are conductive above 350-450m basically, about 450-550m in the morning, so you could catch some wintriness.

[Weather Boy]

It seems to me that virtually every forecast you read, ranging from the pure guess to the highly educated (although at this range, let's face it, still a bit of a guess) goes for a colder than average winter ranging from the slightly colder than average to snowmaggedon.

The stand out exception appear to be the Meto who rate the chance of a milder than average winter at 40% - although this is of limited usefulness when you consider that they rate the chance of a colder winter to be 20%. Nevertheless, on average they are going for a mild winter, so it seems.

What does this tell us? To expect a severe winter, presumably, but we can hardly rule out the prospect of the Met's 40% being correct (I think on here, Lady of the Storm agreed but some time ago - I wonder if she still does?). If that's right there could be a lot of disappointment from coldies on this forum, who I dare say make up the majority of the forum in wintertime.

[19jacobob93]

I expect widespread snow in parts of Scotland above 200-300m on Wednesday, especially evening, with Aberdeen getting possibly hit (or at least the outskirts).

On Wednesday, the uppers are conductive above 350-450m basically, about 450-550m in the morning, so you could catch some wintriness.

And so I did! We had a really heavy sleet shower with a temperature of 2°C at 7:30 this morning!

[Summer Sun]

The Positive weather solutions winter forecast is out, it's bad news for snow fans with no extended spells of snow likely, drier than normal in the south,

Winter 2011-12: Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South

December – often cold, chance of snow in places

There is also strong evidence during the month for some chilly but mainly settled weather, with possibly severe overnight frost, along with persistent fog in low-lying localities. It is furthermore likely that a definite wintry episode will become established, with the potential for snow especially over areas of the North and East. Within this general circulation, some parts of northern and north-eastern Britain retain the best chance of experiencing a White Christmas.

January – some cold, dry South developing

The first month of 2012 looks like being characterised by a sometimes mild North, and developing dry, at times colder conditions in the South. The prospect of prolonged wintry activity looks however unlikely, although occasional colder cells embedded within the overall flow will provide the North, especially upland districts, with temporary snow cover. January’s temperatures will approach the norm or exceed it in some northern and western parts. Southern and eastern areas may be drier than the average.

February – generally milder

There are indications that February over the British Isles may initially offer some of the most unsettled weather of the entire season. There is however no strong signal for any widespread period of sustained cold. The month will also feature some drier and pleasantly sunny passages, these most likely as the month progresses and across southern regions and the South-West in particular. Temperatures overall for the month are likely to be on or above the norm, perhaps notably so for parts of the South; rainfall also looks set to reflect on or above average values.

All looks good to me so James Maddens forecast seems to be in fantasy land.

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php