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Paul

Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

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IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) October model update is also going for a Cold but Dry winter for most of Europe (UK Included)

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif - Rain Fall

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif - Temps

Looks very cold and snowier than normal for my part of the worlddoh.gif

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I haven't posted for a while but follow the winter topics Inc the arctic ice and northern hemisphere snow topics with great interest daily.

I have to say fair play to all on here who have issued winter forecasts and given good reasons for their forecasts ie BFTP.

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Looking like an average November this year. Not like the last unfortunately according to the CFS, but still plenty of time for that to change. :)

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I'm expecting a boradly similar winter profile to last, but I'd never ever be able to forecast such a severe spell this far ahead! All i'll say is I expect another strong cold spell between the 20th November-20th December, probably not as severe or as long but certainly decent...The key uncertainty though is Jan for me...I think Feb will be mild but Jan could swing either way IMO.

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If you ask me we are long overdue a nationwide cold spell in February, 2009 didn't cut it I'm afraid!

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Hmmm to be honest Feb 2009 probably DID cut it, its pretty rare to get a true nationwide event, probably the only true nationwide event of the last years would be the 5-6th Jan 2010 event, and even that didn't give a few areas near the Wash all that much snow.

Anyway the CFS looks interesting today, I think most here would take a winter like that, cool and unsettled with a good cold spell in Decembner/Jan and also a quick burst in early December.

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February 2009 wasn't really cold. In fact, at Leeds Bradford Airport, it was slightly above average temperature rise.. so by nation wide spell I mean nationwide cold as opposed to nationwide snow..

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I'm expecting a boradly similar winter profile to last, but I'd never ever be able to forecast such a severe spell this far ahead! All i'll say is I expect another strong cold spell between the 20th November-20th December, probably not as severe or as long but certainly decent...The key uncertainty though is Jan for me...I think Feb will be mild but Jan could swing either way IMO.

I am actually quite optimistic. I agree with you that there will be an early cold spell (though i could never forecast severity on the scale of last year) however i also think that January will continue the cold trend (around 75% of strengthening -QBO winters had a January colder than average). February for me is the puzzle because ENSO and QBO data is fairly neutral which is making me look towards the PDO and AO for guidence, PDO anologues are ridonculus for cold but AO anologues are fairly mixed.

Full forecast will be released around the 20th November. While it will likely change my current opinion is based on..

Weak La Nina (possibly moderate by winters end but weak on tri-monthly values) and strengthening

-QBO strengthening

-PDO

-AO

December very dry but fairly cold (high pressure over/west of the UK)

January currently looks very good with major Greenland blocking and possibly very cold

February currently putting out a mixed signal

February 2009 wasn't really cold. In fact, at Leeds Bradford Airport, it was slightly above average temperature rise.. so by nation wide spell I mean nationwide cold as opposed to nationwide snow..

February 2009 was strange though, a very cold first half which was followed by one of the warmest second half on record.

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Strange temp profiles for the globe.

I've just noticed that, it seems to be widespread not just the Northern Hemisphere. Global Warming my ***!

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I've noticed the shops are pretty enthusiastic it'll be a cold one this year. Asda has had snow shovels and bags of salt piled up in the foyer for a week now!

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I've noticed the shops are pretty enthusiastic it'll be a cold one this year. Asda has had snow shovels and bags of salt piled up in the foyer for a week now!

I was also greeted by a huge pile of snow shovels at my local asda along with grit/salt!! All the Christmas lines were behind these. I nearly bought a shovel @ £8, it would be far easier than using a bog standard spade like last year!

But I didn't want to buy it and then it sit in the garage all winter as last years snowfalls and cold were exceptional, in a normal or average winter I don't usually recieve nearly half as much snow (if any) as I did last year in my location.

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Saying that BFTP im wondering if i should let my forecast loose on here! it will be my first full one and am not to worried if it goes wrong but i am confident in most of what i see is coming, but its getting the setups in the places you expect them to be! small shifts can make a difference.

anyway this is an interesting one to forecast this year especially after the last two!

The jet stream is showing southerly movements as i expected and expect it to keep going south but wobbling as it does, this could be until late november, with winter bringing a very south track over Spain, the atlantic mostly blocked off from throwing warm lows over us although some heading across north France early winter, as the jet moves south, i also see a dry winter in the way of rainfall, not floods, as we can get in winter, that usually comes from an active atlantic with low after low and mild moist air battling against cool air creating very wet slow moving fronts, i just dont see that situation evolving, what i do see is significant widespread distruptive snowfall from the n/ne through much of early winter into january, only broken by cloudy cold days with little precipitation,

more later..

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0c and first thick frost here..... cars all covered in thick sugary coating woopwoop....bring on winter....please

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f1e97d75fda14fe6a2620c4.png

Look, look, winter is here! wink.png

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f1e97d75fda14fe6a2620c4.png

Look, look, winter is here! wink.png

Could we have more detail please mate? I'm assuming it's a temperature chart but for when? Cheers.

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Could we have more detail please mate? I'm assuming it's a temperature chart but for when? Cheers.

looks like the bbc weather wednesday night temp chart.

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Arctic Blast To Bring Snow

http://www.express.c...sts/view/277583

first bit seems likely, 2 inches of snow for peak district, will be snow above 300m, and maybe -4C, but the rest shimmery moonlight! looks like holiday week will be milder looking at models

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It seems unlikely that virtually 70% of the globe would be cold like that.. of course this will get trampled down, but i've never personally seen anomaly maps reveal that much cold, so I would suggest it's unlikely.

The only other thing I could suggest is that if that does happen, the places that are warm, are going to be very warm (possibly record breaking).

I've come to realise the Earth is adept at equalising situations, and will do all it can to create an equilibrium, without damaging the equilibrium in terms of spatial or temporal

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  • At last! Fine weather on the way for the weekend

    We haven't had a decent weekend of weather since the end of May. But as pressure begins to rise tomorrow, things will improve on Saturday with increasingly fine, warmer conditions particularly over England and Wales by Sunday. Still, we've got to get there first.. Read the full update here

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    More murk, gloom and rain for now but sunnier skies return this weekend

    There's more murky, drizzly and at times wet weather on the way for England and Wales during the remainder of this week, but we're on course for high pressure to arrive this weekend and settle things down. Read the full update here

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