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A Winter's Tale

October 2011: Indian Summer Or Early Winter Blast? You Choose

October 2011  

117 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the Temperatures be like?

    • Way Above Average - Summer's last laugh
      12
    • Above Average - Some nice, pleasant autumnal weather
      29
    • Average - Typical October with some heat and cold and some rain and sun
      40
    • Below Average - Some cold and frosty nights
      29
    • Way Below Average - Winter arrives early with some snow
      7
  2. 2. On How Many Days will the Maximum Temperature be over 20c

    • 0-5 days
      68
    • 5-10 days
      40
    • 10-15 days
      7
    • 15-20 days
      0
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      2
  3. 3. How Many Nights will see Temperatures below 0c

    • 0-5 days
      61
    • 5-10 days
      38
    • 10-15 days
      11
    • 15-20 days
      6
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      1
  4. 4. Will There Be An Indian Summer?

    • Yes, 100% - A repeat of April 2011 after a dismall summer
      26
    • Perhaps - Some nice days with the odd really warm one but no last hoorah for sumer
      47
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps a few decent days but nothing notable.
      33
    • No, 100% - Summer has ended and we are on our way to winter.
      11
  5. 5. Will We See Our First Taste of Winter 2011/2012?

    • Yes, 100% - I expect winter arrive early with some snow and plenty of frost.
      9
    • Perhaps - I expect quite a few frosts and perhaps snow after a poor summer.
      30
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps we may only see a few frosts and snow in hills.
      51
    • No, 100% - October is too early to be thinking about snow, just a few frosts and that's it.
      27


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Bit of both for me. I think we'll see a taste of winter in terms of frost etc but I think we'll have warm periods too. Something for everyone.

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Just as well these charts are not due for summer, june/july, or SE England may see 40°C on the day before the breakdown, 35°C likely elsewhere

Just as well! I'm not sure everyone would agree with that, 40C sounds great for heat lovers rather than a nightmare although even in mid-summer it is almost impossible, I think 27-28C possible though in NE Kent and Inland London, depending on wind direction of course but it looks like being a southerly

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19C with some clouds here, slight breeze. Feeling really warm aswell. Add 5C, take some cloud off and it's gonna feel beautiful come Wednesday towards next weekend!

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Just as well these charts are not due for summer, june/july, or SE England may see 40°C on the day before the breakdown, 35°C likely elsewhere

If only it was, the UK would be as warm as the Med and the heatwave would of been better than 76. Just think what the breakdown would be like some severe Thunderstorms would be certain.

msp_thumbup.gifmsp_love.gif

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Just as well these charts are not due for summer, june/july, or SE England may see 40°C on the day before the breakdown, 35°C likely elsewhere

The upppers progged would not produce 40c temps, back in August 2003 when the temp exceeded 38c in the SE the uppers were around 20+ degrees c.

If it was June/July then I would expect to see temps maxing around 30-33c respectively.

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http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png - Shades of late Sept/early Oct 1985 there and the following February was exceptionally cold.

Incredibly warm weather for the week ahead, to be honest its felt really warm most nights since August even nights in July were cooler.

A high risk of some date records going end of this week.

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The upppers progged would not produce 40c temps, back in August 2003 when the temp exceeded 38c in the SE the uppers were around 20+ degrees c.

If it was June/July then I would expect to see temps maxing around 30-33c respectively.

That's true although I thought the uppers would most likely have been warmer in July/August, as the continent would have been hotter due to the stronger sun and that.

This seems to be an almost perfect summer heatwave set up to me, My guess is uppers may have been 18-20C if this was in July/August with 35C+ possible on the ground.

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That's true although I thought the uppers would most likely have been warmer in July/August, as the continent would have been hotter due to the stronger sun and that.

This seems to be an almost perfect summer heatwave set up to me, My guess is uppers may have been 18-20C if this was in July/August with 35C+ possible on the ground.

Uppers actually are only about 5C warmer on average although the lapse rate is higher (10-12C now but 13-15C in July) so we would have been looking at maxima in the 33C-35C region. The main difference is that the heat would have built as the high moved west whereas the westward movement now will bring in cooler nights due to night being longer than day.

Fairly similar to the chart below...

http://www.wetterzen...00120060612.gif

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Warmest mean days? They're going to be fairly difficult to beat this time around.

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It's that time of year again.

October 2011 has started with a bang with an Indian summer. However, as we all know October is a month with many characteristics with the first frosts, fog and snow of the winter, darker evenings and mornings, some atlantic storms, warm days plus calm clear and chilly nights.

I would imagine that the start of October will be very different to the end as the nights get longer and the days feel cooler as you progress through the month.

I expect a mixture of rainy periods plus calm settled days and some northerlies.

I'm hoping for a October with lots of sunshine during the day and cold, clear nights and the odd day with rain.

Remember, we are only a month away from a time when heavy snow and very cold nights are possible.

Anyway, every day this month I will update on the highest day time temperatures and the coldest night time temperatures.

So for October 1st 2011, the target is to beat the highest ever October temperature.

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CONTENDERS FOR RECORD OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AT 1100HRS:

Rhyl - 23.7C - Wales

Trawsgoed - 23.7C - Wales

Manston - 23.7C - SE England

Woodford - 23.6C - NW England

Kenley - 23.5C - SE England

Benson - 23.4C - SE England

Bingley - 23.3C - Yorkshire and the Humber

St Catherine's Point - 23.3C - SE England

Lofus - 23.2C - NE England

Bedford -23.1C - East of England

Heathrow - 23.1C - SE England

Cottesmore - 23.0C - East Midlands

Weybourne - 23.0C - East of England

Plenty of 23C figures at 11am and there are still many more hours to get to more than 29.5C. Wales and the SE England are the current hot spots.

I'll be doing this anytime there is a warm spell and anytime there is a cold spell this month.

So our tally for temperatures over 20C somewhere in the UK this month is:

1/1

It went down to 6.3C in Altnaharra last night some temps below 0c this month are:

0/1

Tonight sees a slim possibilty of cooler temps in Scotland however the next 10 or so days do have the potential for frosts.

Two locations in Wales are at 23.7C. The October record for Wales is 26.4C which happened on the 1st October 1985 (and the winter that followed had a harsh cold spell). The temperature just needs to rise a further 3C during the next 6-8 hours to beat the Wales record and potentially the UK record.

Hopefully later on this month we will see records being brocken with the otherside of temperatures (minimum temps).

Next Update should be within the next hour.

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CONTENDERS FOR RECORD OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AT 1200HRS:

Northolt - 26.2C - SE England

Loftus - 26.0C - NE England

Trawsgoed - 25.8C - Wales

Bedford - 25.6C - East of England

Charlwood - 25.5C - SE England

Weybourne - 25.4C - East of England

Coleshill - 25.4C - West Midlands

Pershore - 25.2C - West Midlands

Heathrow - 25.0C - SE England

Wales are only 1C away from beating their previous October record. Northolt in SE England is the nearest to beating the UK all time record with 3.4C more to go.

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29.9C in Gravesend, how hot can it get!!!!!

Will it be the highest temperature of the day - Well we will find it within the next 20 mins or so.

Ironically, tonight marks the first hunt for low temps this October and the temperatures in the north of Scotland are struggling to rise above 13C so potentially a cold night although I expect more realistic oppurtunities for frosts within the next 5-10 days.

Next Update coming soon.

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CONTENDERS FOR FIRST 30C EVER IN OCTOBER:

28C IN MANY LOCATIONS AND GRAVESEND IS AT 38.9C.

How about colder temps:

11.8c at Loch Glascarnoch

12c at Aviemore

11.5c to 13.7c in most Highland locations.

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Stations at or above 25.0c;

Coventry (AP) (82 m) 28.0 °C fair Cambridge (15 m) 28.0 °C cloudless London City (AP) (5 m) 28.0 °C - Humberside (31 m) 28.0 °C fair Staverton Private (29 m) 28.0 °C fair London-Heathrow (AP) (25 m) 27.0 °C fair Norwich Weather Centre (37 m) 27.0 °C fair Birmingham (99 m) 27.0 °C fair London-Gatwick (62 m) 26.0 °C fair Stansted (AP) (106 m) 26.0 °C fair Farnborough (64 m) 26.0 °C fair Luton (AP) (160 m) 26.0 °C fair Southend-on-Sea (AP) (15 m) 25.0 °C fair Bristol / Lulsgate (189 m) 25.0 °C fair Jersey (AP) (84 m) 25.0 °C fair

These were taken from 16:00 h/rs. Temperatures are now dropping away somewhat.

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CONTENDERS FOR FIRST 30C EVER IN OCTOBER:

28C IN MANY LOCATIONS AND GRAVESEND IS AT 38.9C.

I always thought that was a dodgy site tongue.png

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OCTOBER 1ST STATS:

MAX TEMP: 29.9C AT GRAVESEND

MIN TEMP: 6.0C AT ALTNAHARRA

It's Currently 28.5C at Gravesend so there is still a chance of reaching 30C.

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It is T-shirt weather at the moment, by the end of the month I think woolly jumpers will be in order, oh yes and light the fire because its chilly etc. smiliz39.gif

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OCTOBER 2011:

INDIAN SUMMER - TICK

EARLY BLAST OF WINTER - WATCH THIS SPACE....

Here are a a few dramatic (and laughable headline to get the winter coat out again):

http://www.metro.co.uk/news/877373-britain-set-for-heavy-rain-and-snow-as-hurricane-ophelia-ends-mini-heatwave

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2044601/UK-weather-Get-ready-SNOW-HURRICANE-temperatures-drop-18c-Friday.html

http://www.tntmagazine.com/tnt-today/archive/2011/10/03/uk-weather-heatwave-over-wind-and-snow-on-way.aspx

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/15146926

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/indian-summer-it-was-fun-while-it-lasted-2364694.html

http://global.christianpost.com/news/hurricane-and-snow-to-hit-uk-following-record-hot-october-weekend-57113/

http://fallenscoop.com/57603/uk-weather-goes-from-autumn-heatwave-to-hurricane-ophelia-bringing-heavy-rain-and-snow

http://travel.aol.co.uk/2011/10/03/make-the-most-of-the-heatwave-its-going-to-snow-this-week/

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/275144/Hurricane-storms-in-to-end-Britain-s-autumn-heatwave

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8802629/North-braced-for-Hurricane-Ophelia-as-south-basks-in-record-breaking-heat.html

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2011/10/03/record-breaking-month-for-hot-weather-could-end-with-snow-forecasters-predict-91466-29526379/

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3849382/Snow-to-hit-UK-by-Friday-as-heatwave-ends.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-03/u-k-weather-to-turn-wintry-later-this-week-accuweather-says.html

http://news.uk.msn.com/blog/news-bite-blogpost.aspx?post=cb1961a5-9e40-4dfa-97e2-612c8582593e

Well there is no mention for James Madden for once but I bet he will be saying I started it. Anyway, the met office saying it's going to get cooler after the hottest ever October winter isn't feasable for an article to say UK to be hit by snow. It won't happen with the coolest temperatures being at 0-5c however I would like to test my new thermometer for the first time.

Despite how exaggerated these articles are, it's good to see snow being mentioned and hopefully there will be a few frosts. If your looking for snow then head to the Scottish Highlands where the snow fis forecast to fall on the hill tops. If nothing happens from this spell then I'm sure there will be another more realistic oppurtunity later this month. However there is also the potential for yet another Indian Summer.

I think most people from Scotland and Northern Ireland are glad to the see the end of the Wales and England heatwave as we suffered typically autumnal weather. I remember seeing a satellite image that showed all of England and Wales bathing in Sunshine and Scotland and Northern Ireland under cloud cover with boundary of cloud cover and sunshine forming right over the England-Scotland Border.

2ND OCTOBER STATS:

MAX TEMP: 29.3C - CONINGSBY

MIN TEMP: 3.7C - STORNOWAY

Current Temperatures for Mins:

Glenanne - 7.7C

Eskaldemuir - 8.5C

Loch Glascarnoch - 8.8C

Aviemore - 9.2C

Wick - 9.5C

Stornoway - 9.5C

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Severe gales maybe.... but snow, maybe on the top of a Scottish mountain. Got to love the press and the blown out of all proportian headlines!! LOL

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As much as I would love to see a late snowfall here for October (happened in 2008), get the feeling the rest of October will be probably be invaded by high-pressure to the South, but making attempts to move North-Eastwards possibly allowing a cool South-Easterly/Easterly breeze to form. I agree from some of the posts I read in the Model Output that fog and frosts may become more of a trend the more we head into the month (depending how the high and low pressure systems play out).

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As much as I would love to see a late snowfall here for October (happened in 2008), get the feeling the rest of October will be probably be invaded by high-pressure to the South, but making attempts to move North-Eastwards possibly allowing a cool South-Easterly/Easterly breeze to form. I agree from some of the posts I read in the Model Output that fog and frosts may become more of a trend the more we head into the month (depending how the high and low pressure systems play out).

I would love to see my first ever October snowfall ever however I think this time of year is more suited to sunshine, some atlantic fronts, fog and frost with some cloud cover with perhaps some warm days and snow.

I think it's good of we have an influence of warmer weather this month as it may save us from being under this pattern in winter. By the middle of November I think we will have our first realistic idea of winter and perhaps by then we may be under yet another Big Freeze. I'm going for a winter that will see one very cold and snowy period of weather (most likely between late November to mid January and perhaps Febuary). I then expect some periods of Atlantic dominated weather, anticylonic aswell as more potent northerly outbreaks than we saw last winter.

3RD OCTOBER STATS:

Max Temp: 28.3C

Min Temp: 5.5C

Current Temps for Cold Night:

Lerwick - 9.5C

Current Stats for October:

Days with Temperatures over 20C: 3

Nights with Temperatures below 0C: 0

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It feels very wintry today.

It is currently 4.9C in Aviemore and at the moment it is looking pretty good for another chilly night. If the temperature continues to fall and showers keep on rolling in, perhaps we may see snow being observed at places such as Aviemore. Certainly the hills around there have had a good fall of snow.

It feels very wintry today.

It was 4.9C in Aviemore at 3pm and at the moment it is looking pretty good for another chilly night. If the temperature continues to fall and showers keep on rolling in, perhaps we may see snow being observed at places such as Aviemore. Certainly the hills around there have had a good fall of snow

Now 5C at Loch Glascarnoch.

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