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A Winter's Tale

October 2011: Indian Summer Or Early Winter Blast? You Choose

October 2011  

117 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the Temperatures be like?

    • Way Above Average - Summer's last laugh
      12
    • Above Average - Some nice, pleasant autumnal weather
      29
    • Average - Typical October with some heat and cold and some rain and sun
      40
    • Below Average - Some cold and frosty nights
      29
    • Way Below Average - Winter arrives early with some snow
      7
  2. 2. On How Many Days will the Maximum Temperature be over 20c

    • 0-5 days
      68
    • 5-10 days
      40
    • 10-15 days
      7
    • 15-20 days
      0
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      2
  3. 3. How Many Nights will see Temperatures below 0c

    • 0-5 days
      61
    • 5-10 days
      38
    • 10-15 days
      11
    • 15-20 days
      6
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      1
  4. 4. Will There Be An Indian Summer?

    • Yes, 100% - A repeat of April 2011 after a dismall summer
      26
    • Perhaps - Some nice days with the odd really warm one but no last hoorah for sumer
      47
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps a few decent days but nothing notable.
      33
    • No, 100% - Summer has ended and we are on our way to winter.
      11
  5. 5. Will We See Our First Taste of Winter 2011/2012?

    • Yes, 100% - I expect winter arrive early with some snow and plenty of frost.
      9
    • Perhaps - I expect quite a few frosts and perhaps snow after a poor summer.
      30
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps we may only see a few frosts and snow in hills.
      51
    • No, 100% - October is too early to be thinking about snow, just a few frosts and that's it.
      27


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Retrogression eh? Winter dictionary back in force, yes? Definitely looking more than likely that heights build to the NW with cooler northerlies - basically what damianslaw said :)

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What would I want from an October? Lots of variety- at least one notable southerly plume (of the 8th October 1995 type variety), at least one notable northerly blast with wintry showers occurring quite widely even at low levels, some anticyclonic interludes with hazy sunshine by day and chilly misty nights, and some cyclonic interludes with sunshine and blustery showers (though not the grey tropical maritime stuff). I don't ask for much do I? (lol). In all honesty though I tend to be reasonably satisfied if at least one of those patterns features a lot during an October.

What will we get? I think October is likely to start off very warm as the high pressure doesn't look like shifting for a while. Towards mid-October though I expect the Atlantic trough to migrate slowly east allowing in a changeable westerly spell and then something colder and possibly frosty around midmonth, but after that I'm not sure.

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I think this October will be the coldest one of all time... after the heatwave of course.

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What would I want from an October? Lots of variety- at least one notable southerly plume (of the 8th October 1995 type variety), at least one notable northerly blast

Switcharounds! That would be a very interesting October if that happened. Recent Octobers have been very remarkable for their consistent start to finish range in temperatures and lack of big switcharounds with Octobers 2001, 2005, 2006 and 2009 being consistently mild to very mild whilst Octobers 1992, 1993, 2003 and 2008 have been consistently cold to very cold. Octobers like 1998 and 2004 have often been consistently slightly below to slightly above average. Octobers with wildly varying start to finish conditions were common in the 1920s and 1930s with Octobers like 1922, 1926, 1933 and 1934 having very warm, sunny and humid Continental Tropical southerly winds followed later in the month by very cold, sunny and snowy Continental Polar northerly winds. The only Octobers in recent years to have such big switcharounds were Octobers 1997 and to a less extreme extent 2010.

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Well, certainly looking like an unseasonably warm start to October, the record high under threat perhaps, for Coventry that's 80f in 1985?

After the first week anyones guess, but the very warm start suggests a cool month will be difficult to achieve.

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http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Incredible cold spell across Norway, Sweden, Finland, Baltic and parts of Eastern Europe at the end of the run. The -5c line just briefly clips the Shetland Isles aswell. If those incredible northerly winds just moved a wee bit westwards then we could face one hell of a cold snap.

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http://www.netweathe...ction=nwdc;sess=

Incredible cold spell across Norway, Sweden, Finland, Baltic and parts of Eastern Europe at the end of the run. The -5c line just briefly clips the Shetland Isles aswell. If those incredible northerly winds just moved a wee bit westwards then we could face one hell of a cold snap.

IF!

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FI!

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AWT, way too long yet for that - if verified, heavy snow showers over Western Scandi and N Germany, Netherlands possible - but 90 percent unlikely. Retrogression may pull a cooler Nly but the main cold will of course move into Norway. Wintry showers for the Shetlands, NE Scotland and the Highlands is the most we can really expect with brilliant synoptics in early-mid October.

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http://www.netweathe...ction=nwdc;sess=

Incredible cold spell across Norway, Sweden, Finland, Baltic and parts of Eastern Europe at the end of the run. The -5c line just briefly clips the Shetland Isles aswell. If those incredible northerly winds just moved a wee bit westwards then we could face one hell of a cold snap.

You make it sound pretty likely. :lol: Sadly being at the very end of the run and FI, its highly unlikely to come off. I can tell your excited for Winter but just be careful before you set yourself up for many disappointments!

Saying that some snow is possible in October but this is generally quite uncommon away from the Scottish mountains and if id did spread, is usually very short lived and never comes to much. I would save the excitement for at least a month yet.

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The upcoming warm spell will most likely the last taste of summer and I look forward to it. Might be able to get one last use out of the BBQ too as it won't be used again until next April at the very earliest.

I'm personally hoping for an Atlantic period of weather after this warm spell as opposed to any northerly based synoptics, as some more rain would be welcomed.

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http://www.netweathe...ction=nwdc;sess=

Incredible cold spell across Norway, Sweden, Finland, Baltic and parts of Eastern Europe at the end of the run. The -5c line just briefly clips the Shetland Isles aswell. If those incredible northerly winds just moved a wee bit westwards then we could face one hell of a cold snap.

certainly dont want that! way too early for snow in my area

Ben from cambridge, yeah I would rather see Atlantic weather rather than northerlies (although I hate rain) wanna save the northerlies for Mid november

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. October heat is like April snow, pointless.

Totally disagree with that. You can do your last minute jobs in the garden, harvest remaining crops. You can get maxima into the 20s in October and with a less intense sun as say in July, you can enjoy it

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I think my post in the Winter thread is more aware of how unlikely it's likely to happen.

Anyway, it was just a try at an early snow and cold ramp!

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Just as well these charts are not due for summer, june/july, or SE England may see 40°C on the day before the breakdown, 35°C likely elsewhere

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I think my post in the Winter thread is more aware of how unlikely it's likely to happen.

Anyway, it was just a try at an early snow and cold ramp!

Ahh, good you realised it was Deep FI and unlikely. :) I dont like seeing people set up themselves for disappointments. Nice to see cold enough uppers are beginning to appear for the first wintry conditions and another reminder winter is soon knocking on the door. Just important to remember that October snow while possible does not occur very often at all and rarely comes to much. We did have a little October snow 2008 I think it was but was right at the end of the month. That was right on the balance that event also and as expected it never settled here.

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As I said yesterday - quite uncanny how we seem to be in symmetry with late april/early may. The opening days of May brought fine warm weather but the rest of the month detreriorated into nothingness, much like how this september has panned out. Late Apr - exceptional warmth, early oct - possible ditto.. but I think it would be a very tall order for october to follow in similiar vein to April.

Personally as I plan a holiday in the highlands third week of Oct into the last week - I'd be very happy for heights to move to the NW of the country - yes much cooler conditions but also guaranteed fairly dry sunny weather with great visibility but with some sharp possibly wintry showers... much better than heights languishing to our south/east which means tropical maritime air to the NW.

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To be honest, I would rather have warm weather in April rather than October. It's brighter in April and your leaving winter behind and looking forward to summer so I believe it's nicer to have that type of winter.

Yes it would be pleasant to have sunny weather in October, however I would rather have crisp, fresh sunny days with frosty mornings. I don't associate October with heat because the leaves are plants aren't in full bloom unlike April. However it's early October and I would accept this type of weather in September. With the harvest period here, perhaps it may be quite nice to see warm weather howver I believe the trees and the surroundings wouldn't suit over 20c temps. However sunshine and 16c would do fine for October with a cool, crisp and frosty end to the month.

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I was hoping for an October with about 250 mm of rain as an endless succession of deep Atlantic lows moved across the country but, looking at the current charts, and taking into account the Met' Office further outlook, that hope appears to have been blown out of the water.

If it came to an option of early autumn heat or cold and unsettled with early snow, guess which one I'd take?

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Warmth and sunshine suit me anytime of the year but if I could pick my warm, sunny periods October probably wouldn't be anywhere near my top choice. April-Sept being the obvious peak 'good' weather zone (May-July the 'peak peak' period).

Generally I like my October to be much like some of Sept has been - full of gales with the odd quieter cooler period.

I think we'll kick off warm but rapidly go downhill in the second week. Just in time for me to get my usual post birthday autumn cold!

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A warm October sounds better than a warm June or July to me, the sun is not as strong and the days aren't as long or oppressive, nights tend to be cooler so sleeping is easier.

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A warm October sounds better than a warm June or July to me, the sun is not as strong and the days aren't as long or oppressive, nights tend to be cooler so sleeping is easier.

Each to their own, but warm dark evenings are not my cup of tea - what good is a warm evening when it is getting dark before 7pm... can't make half of much of the warm weather as you can in June and July - well those who have to work and don't finish until 6pm. No a warm June and July is far far far better than a warm October in my book.

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Each to their own, but warm dark evenings are not my cup of tea - what good is a warm evening when it is getting dark before 7pm... can't make half of much of the warm weather as you can in June and July - well those who have to work and don't finish until 6pm. No a warm June and July is far far far better than a warm October in my book.

Well that's the case in the tropics.

I get your point though, getting up at dark and coming home when its dark is depressing, especially when it's warm and sunny outside.

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Well that's the case in the tropics.

I get your point though, getting up at dark and coming home when its dark is depressing, especially when it's warm and sunny outside.

Yes indeed in most hot countries they don't get the long evenings we get. Around the equator its dark at 6pm sharp which is earlier than we are currently experiencing (around 7pm). Now just think if we'd gone to 'double summertime' it'd still be light at 8pm... (but not light till 8am... eek)

Despite our lack of reliable summer weather I'd not want to loose our light evenings if that were a possible swap!

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