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A Winter's Tale

October 2011: Indian Summer Or Early Winter Blast? You Choose

October 2011  

117 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the Temperatures be like?

    • Way Above Average - Summer's last laugh
      12
    • Above Average - Some nice, pleasant autumnal weather
      29
    • Average - Typical October with some heat and cold and some rain and sun
      40
    • Below Average - Some cold and frosty nights
      29
    • Way Below Average - Winter arrives early with some snow
      7
  2. 2. On How Many Days will the Maximum Temperature be over 20c

    • 0-5 days
      68
    • 5-10 days
      40
    • 10-15 days
      7
    • 15-20 days
      0
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      2
  3. 3. How Many Nights will see Temperatures below 0c

    • 0-5 days
      61
    • 5-10 days
      38
    • 10-15 days
      11
    • 15-20 days
      6
    • 20-25 days
      0
    • 25-30+ days
      1
  4. 4. Will There Be An Indian Summer?

    • Yes, 100% - A repeat of April 2011 after a dismall summer
      26
    • Perhaps - Some nice days with the odd really warm one but no last hoorah for sumer
      47
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps a few decent days but nothing notable.
      33
    • No, 100% - Summer has ended and we are on our way to winter.
      11
  5. 5. Will We See Our First Taste of Winter 2011/2012?

    • Yes, 100% - I expect winter arrive early with some snow and plenty of frost.
      9
    • Perhaps - I expect quite a few frosts and perhaps snow after a poor summer.
      30
    • Maybe Not - Perhaps we may only see a few frosts and snow in hills.
      51
    • No, 100% - October is too early to be thinking about snow, just a few frosts and that's it.
      27


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After what has been a dismall Summer we have already plunged into pool of all things autumn. This means the possibilty of a last gasp Indian Summer or even a dramatic and early arrival to winter. Anyway, we are only a few days away from entering October, the month that signals the transistion of summer to winter. With such a bizzare year so far, anything is possible and headlines are already talking about Indian Summers and Big Freezes? So whether you are a sun fanatic or a winter lover, October could be your last bite of the cheery or your starter before dinner is served.

My Verdict:

October will start off warm, then become quite windy and wet, then the first widespread frosts with a cool end.

Hopefully we will see some warmth aswell as sunshine, frosts, cold and clear nights and I am really hoping for my first October snowfall ever.

With Winter in November, Spring in Febuary, Summer in April, Autumn in August, God Knows what October will be.

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Well according to local news - Snow !!

http://www.thisisglo...tail/story.html

Oh dear.

I love how a quote stating that temperatures may be "slightly below average" in October is taken to mean that it will snow.

Let us put things into perspective..........how many times have people seen snow at low levels in England in October? Once maybe, I think that answers the question on the liklehood of snow next month.

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Im going for October to be dominated in the most part by Mild wet and windy Southwesterlies, possibly stormier or atleast windier than September with temps ranging from average to slightly above. And the chance of breif repsites from weak ridging, favouring the usual SE over the NW.

I'm going to say this will continue well into november where cooler nights will start to emerge along with fog and drizzle, winds will ease off compaired to Sept/ Oct and by the end of the month there will be early snowfall for some and as we head into Dec the chill will start to phase in with average snow amounts for some areas of the uk as the Jetstream flirts with France for a time before returning to a northery track. Sadly for me, the snow drought then kicks in for end of Dec into jan and feb, where we could see a return to milder SWerly type weather.

Thats my guesstimate for the next 3 months or so :D

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Settled October.. some warm-ish days followed by cold nights, and frost of course. No snow though, except for northern hills.

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huge winter/snow fan, but I think I would prefer an Indian summer for 0ct, If i lived above 300m asl in Scotland then i would prefer an early winter blast as snow easily possible

where I live an 0ctober winter blast at best would produce wet snow, with most likely rain before and after

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I would like an early winter blast near the end of Oct near Halloween. Early winter blasts can only be so cold in Oct as it is only Oct but it would be a nice little taster for hopefully bigger and better things to come if it did happen. For the moment anyway as regards early Oct that looks to be on the warm side.

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cold,frosty and calm with crunchy leaves under foot. thats real halloweeny. snow can wait till december when the sun is at its weakest.

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Oh dear.

I love how a quote stating that temperatures may be "slightly below average" in October is taken to mean that it will snow.

Let us put things into perspective..........how many times have people seen snow at low levels in England in October? Once maybe, I think that answers the question on the liklehood of snow next month.

AWT, who started this thread, not you, is in Scotland, not England.

Anyway, it'll be wetblum.gif

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due to fly out of gatwick on the 30th oct so the last thing i want is snow, but on my return on the 7th nov it can snow all it likes. lol

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Spanish plume, thundery breakdown, severe gales, sunny day then full on blizzards. October sorted. :)

On a more serious note, I reckon we will get a few warm days to begin with like a few others have said, maybe hitting mid twenties, then it will probably give way to windy and wet weather. If i see snow outside my house at anytime in October I will eat my shoes. (Not really)

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I would really love a warm sunny october and well into November. Actually that reminds me I do remember one November I think around 1995 there was a day in Oxford it reached 72 degrees or thereabouts. If there is snow please make it hard and fast couple of days and then a windy rainy Oct. I just don't want huge utility bills!

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My own personal belief is that while temperature will be below average for the majority of the time, the statistical likelyhood of getting lowland English snow twice in three years during October is negligable. There will be frosts as usual but no snow outside Scotland and possibly the tops of the Pennines.

In regards to weather, i expect the first half of October to be cool and wet (north westerlies) before high pressure builds over/west of the UK in the second half of the month (similar to the Netweather forecast). Fairly cool but a month of two halfs in terms of precipitation.

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An October warm spell for me. Brilliant sunshine, a gentle balmy southerly windflow something like what ECM 0z is currently hinitng. 8th October 1995 like for me.

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AWT, who started this thread, not you, is in Scotland, not England.

Anyway, it'll be wetblum.gif

I was referring to the news article (from a Gloucester paper), not the thread itself. I know you Scots are blessed with the white stuff.

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My own personal belief is that while temperature will be below average for the majority of the time, the statistical likelyhood of getting lowland English snow twice in three years during October is negligable. There will be frosts as usual but no snow outside Scotland and possibly the tops of the Pennines.

In regards to weather, i expect the first half of October to be cool and wet (north westerlies) before high pressure builds over/west of the UK in the second half of the month (similar to the Netweather forecast). Fairly cool but a month of two halfs in terms of precipitation.

best you take a look at the 500mb charts all 3 show a blocking high so I would imagine the start of October to be fairly settled, at least for the southern half of the country, and even the NW to be much less unsettled than it has been recently?

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Definitely an Indian Summer, as it can still get pretty warm in October.

Snow in October is only good for novelty value: when it does happen it hardly ever amounts to much and doesn't stick around for long.

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Hopefully an average October, a few days of warmth and a few nights of frost, with unsettled windy conditions in between. October heat is like April snow, pointless.

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October heat is like April snow, pointless.

On 2nd April last year I caught a bus from outside my Edinburgh flat, took a 25 minute bus ride to Balerno on the city outskirts, stepped out of the bus........put my snowshoes on.....and spent the next six hours snow-shoeing around the sun-baked Pentlands in beautiful, deep wind-packed snow. A warm Spring sun coupled with walking in snow. Tis marvellous.

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I can see the Euro High being especially stubborn for the first half of the month, the GFS and ECM already hinting this so im expecting even if there's a lot of mist/fog around the dry weather will continue.

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Warm if not hot with no sign of wintryness until the end of the month.

Going to be the most settled month since April.

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Hopefully an average October, a few days of warmth and a few nights of frost, with unsettled windy conditions in between. October heat is like April snow, pointless.

That depends on where you live.

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Indications/hints being shown in the models that we may see strong retrogression of heights northwestwards - October could after a couple of days quickly cool down markedly with widespread frosts and quite cool days setting in, easterlies in early october are very uncommon, but northerlies can often appear....

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