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October CET

Isolated Frost

By Isolated Frost
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Surprising that anyone would choose below average given the level we will be at Monday.

It would need an immense cold snap late on of scale of this October heatwave.

Well it's only the first day of October that's going to be really hot..

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Surprising that anyone would choose below average given the level we will be at Monday.

It would need an immense cold snap late on of scale of this October heatwave.

What is the level we'll be at on Monday? High 20s??

Looking at the GFS though, it does look chilly mid month...

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AderynCoch Seasoned

AderynCoch

Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
Posted

Surprising that anyone would choose below average given the level we will be at Monday.

It would need an immense cold snap late on of scale of this October heatwave.

Not necessarily: a few days of exceptional warmth could be easily cancelled out by weeks of less exceptional coolness.

That said it's a big head start for warmth, which will make it more difficult for cooler conditions to bring the CET below average.

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

Surprising that anyone would choose below average given the level we will be at Monday.

It would need an immense cold snap late on of scale of this October heatwave.

Its getting to the time of the year, where short cold snaps can deflate CET values pretty swiftly.

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Tom D Apprentice

Tom D

Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts
Posted

Sorry it's a bit late but I'll go for 11.9c.

Currently the NW tracker is on 19.58... 9.8c above average, love that. Imagine the downward trend we could have. UK wide snow by the end of October anyone? rofl.gif

Also, just looking at the year so far on the NW temp tracker page , I wonder if Mr Data could reveal whether there has been a year when the 4 months of June to September have ever had such a small difference in average daytime temperature? That page has it at 1.36 but the official statistics may be different. What is the 61-90 average range for these months?

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

Sorry it's a bit late but I'll go for 11.9c.

Currently the NW tracker is on 19.58... 9.8c above average, love that. Imagine the downward trend we could have. UK wide snow by the end of October anyone? rofl.gif

Also, just looking at the year so far on the NW temp tracker page , I wonder if Mr Data could reveal whether there has been a year when the 4 months of June to September have ever had such a small difference in average daytime temperature? That page has it at 1.36 but the official statistics may be different. What is the 61-90 average range for these months?

In the September CET thread, I showed how similiar a lot of the CETs currently have been with those of 1961

1961 3.9 6.9 8.2 10.0 11.0 14.4 15.2 15.4 15.2

2011 3.7 6.4 6.7 11.8 12.2 13.8 15.2 15.4 15.1

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Not necessarily: a few days of exceptional warmth could be easily cancelled out by weeks of less exceptional coolness.

That said it's a big head start for warmth, which will make it more difficult for cooler conditions to bring the CET below average.

August had the opening day or two above 20C and yet finished 0.8C below the 1971-2000 average.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

11.3c

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AtlanticFlamethrower Explorer

AtlanticFlamethrower

Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
Posted

Surprising that anyone would choose below average given the level we will be at Monday.

It would need an immense cold snap late on of scale of this October heatwave.

It's happening right at the start of the month which is, on average, warmer than the end. If it was projected for mid-month I personally would have gone higher but warmth at the start of the month has more opportunity to be cancelled out later. I do wonder if I'm on the cold side... but if we get this high in a slightly different position and some clear skies the CET could change pretty rapidly.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

It's happening right at the start of the month which is, on average, warmer than the end. If it was projected for mid-month I personally would have gone higher but warmth at the start of the month has more opportunity to be cancelled out later. I do wonder if I'm on the cold side... but if we get this high in a slightly different position and some clear skies the CET could change pretty rapidly.

Indeed, by October a northerly can bring the 0C isotherm over us producing frosts which hold back maxima. With the hot spell forecast to be over completely by the 6th/7th, we should see the CET collapse even if we still run a little above average as the GFS would suggest.

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

This is late but as I've not made predictions in the last few months it doesn't matter much to me. As patterns seem to have had a tendency to become locked in in recent times I think we may see southerly winds predominate through the month. Therefore I am going for 13.1C.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Well naturally it will collapse given such an abnormal start, even if it is warm for the rest of the month, by warm I mean maxima 17c and minima 8c (which ordinarily is warm for mid- late October)

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Corrigan87 Newbie

Corrigan87

Posted
  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, fog in winter. Warm & dry and thunderstorms in summer
  • Location: Ashurst, West Sussex
Posted

Given the extreme warmth currently and that recent years have had warm autumns and then a sudden appearence of winter im going for an above average 11.8

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

I'll go for 10.9C

Just above average.

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frozencanals Contributor

frozencanals

Posted
  • Location: Southend on Sea, London, Jarnac in France
  • Location: Southend on Sea, London, Jarnac in France
Posted

Sorry I am late, going for a warm 1st half, decidedly cool 2nd half... 10.1C

FC

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Hadley on 19.8C to the 1st.

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Did not even manage to beat 1985 for the day mean then, interesting as minima must have been lower this time.

With such a warm start, the 6th and 7th could actually knock about a degree off just by themselves.

That said, what is the warmest first half to October on record (i do not expect it to be beaten but there is clearly a chance)?

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AderynCoch Seasoned

AderynCoch

Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
Posted

19.0C to the 2nd: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday's value was 18.3C. We will as always have to wait for readjustments at the end of the month, but assuming the first two days of October stay above 18C we will have a 5-day run of CET means above 18C - the first time on record such a run has occurred in October. Remarkable.

Here's the full list (as far as I know) of such hot spells since daily mean records began in 1772: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/63137-cet-hot-spells/

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