October CET

[Isolated Frost]

Interesting month of course, first frosts, and possibly lowland snowfalls can occur, but so can powerful extratropical and tropical storms as the Hurricane season rides to a close - but this time round, are there signs of an Indian summer? All will depend on the positioning of the jet and where HP lands - south, east, or even possibly west off us.

Here are Eden's averages:

1971-00: 10.4C

1981-10: 10.7C

I'm going for 10.9C, warmish month with a few cool spells middle to end.

Recent Octobers (Eden method):

2006: 13.0C (+2.6C)

2007: 11.1C (+0.7C)

2008: 9.8C (-0.6C)

2009: 11.3C (+0.9C)

2010: 10.3C (-0.1C)

[Snowstorm1]

I'll go for 10.5c as the decline in temperatures for winter occurs..

[Koppite]

10.6C for me please.

[summer blizzard]

October is typically the wettest month of the year and is usually about the time when the polar vortex really cranks up.

I expect northerlies and westerlies to be dominant and as such will at this stage go for 9.7C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

[damianslaw]

October is typically the wettest month of the year and is usually about the time when the polar vortex really cranks up.

I expect northerlies and westerlies to be dominant and as such will at this stage go for 9.7C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

Yes October can be a very wet month, but here in the Lake District, November and December on average are wetter. Recent October's have brought a real mixed bag with notable dry conditions in 2009, cold conditions in 2008 and very mild conditions in 2005 and 2006. I always look forward to the first air frost of the season which usually occurs at some stage in October - usually around the third week or so.

I'll be reserving my prediction until next week - mind my predictions so far this year have been way off the mark.

[Backtrack]

No chance of a below average October. It's going to be very warm, finishing a few degrees above average.

12.7C.

[Aaron]

A high pressure dominated month, warm days, but cold nights should offset a really warm CET..

I'll leave it for now though and hand in my guess prediction later in the month.

[Lettucing Gutted]

14C

[SteveB]

I shall go for 9.8c please.

[Backtrack]

Out of interest, what's the warmest recorded CET for October?

[Radiating Dendrite]

13.1 I believe.

[AderynCoch]

13.1 I believe.

13.3 actually (2001).

[joggs]

Im gonna go a crazy sounding 8.9

[Radiating Dendrite]

13.3 actually (2001).

Close

[sparky1972]

gut feeling says a very prolonged warm october commimg up so 14.1 for me.

[Stormyking]

Im going for a warm one at 12.2C

[Radiating Dendrite]

I would say average is likely.

Some cold nights will off set any warm days.

10.9 for me.

[Styx]

I'm going for a WARM October, hoping that will be a prelude to a dramatic temperature slide for the winter for you guys ( I know all you want it..) !!

13.3 Equalling the CET record.

[Polar Gael]

10.0ºC for me please.

[Optimus Prime]

Octobers 1992,1993,1997,2003 and 2008 were good Octobers..often rather cold with some good frosty conditions. Just how Octobers should be.

Cool for me at 9.0c

[BornFromTheVoid]

10.5C thanks

[conor123]

12.4c, a very mild month with plenty of high pressure and the drought continuing for us Midlanders until near the end of the month when things will breakdown.

[Beasterly]

11.9C thanks!

[snowlover2009]

A dry month very likely unless we start to see models shift, but at the moment FI continues the dry, warm theme, although by then, anything will be mid to high teens, as we get cooler.

11.6c.

In summary a dry month, mild month, with a dramatic change to the end of the month as a proper northern block becomes established. The very end of FI show the smallest potential of this happening, with the high drifting more to the north west.

First week, average to above, but not as warm as last week of september. Second week, high drifting more to the north west, still mild for a time with the uppers a few chilly nights. Third week, high stalls in the atlantic and the UK, giving average to above average conditions with mild air still holding on. Last week getting cooler with frost become more predominant and the high noticeably setting up to the north west of the uk.

By the middle of the month, I expect the models to be hinting and leaning towards our first cold spell since last winter, giving us a very cold start to November.

[Sunlover]

12.3c for me please