Winter 2011/2012

[knightrider]

Personally I do not like the changeable weather in winter which so many asked for with a continued freeze/thaw situation because although I love snow I hate slush.

I loved the winter of 62/63, so for me an ideal winter would be snow (the powdery type) interspersed with periods of blue sky and sunshine from mid Dec to the first week of Feb to be followed by an early spring thaw as the sun elevates.

Well I am nearly 69, so some may consider me as elderly but my ideal temperatures in the summer are 25 to 30 C and on cold calm sunshine days in winter -5C; when it is cold like that it is surprising how warm it can actually feel - a lot more so than a cold drizzly wind at 3C.

As I said there are some exceptions to the rule like with everything in life!

[Guest]

As I said there are some exceptions to the rule like with everything in life!

It's rather nice being an exception - long live individuality and the characters of this world

[EML Network]

A few comments on EML November forecast - was this copied from some text book - it reads like a text book summary on what on average November delivers. Scotland and NW Eng tend to see the stormiest and wettest conditions in November, and the SE the most settled conditions. The SW on average is the mildest part, and the NE tends to see some snow by the end of the month..

I ask what is the point of this forecast - it seems to me to be not a forecast just a summary of average conditions expected in November.

1:) I take it as a compliment that you thought this was taken from a text book

2:) So if my November froecast was thus

Jason's Nov forecast : Average

Would you not have posted something along the lines of "Please can you elaborate" ??

I think perhaps you would have !!

I can't help it, if I am seeing a pretty standard November, perhaps If I had said that the entrie globe was to be plunged into a 5,000 year long Ice age, you might have been happier, but I'm afraid that's not going to happen, and if you think my post was pointless, then perhaps you should grow a pair and try doing your own forecast.

[EML Network]

EML'S Updated November forecast JUST for damianslaw :

November starts on a really really really mild note, nationwide temperatures of 37 degrees, bar tesco's in oxford, where some some bizzare reason, it's minus 26.4 and snowing.

During the evening of the 5th, someone hit the moon with a firework, so hard, that it's now moving away from the earth at a rate of 100 MPH, the effect on the earth is felt instantly.

As we wake up on the 6th we'll notice that 1/2 the coastal citys no longer exist, London has vanished, and the winds turn from a gentle southerly into a raging 150mph northerly, lasting the whole month, with once again the exception of Oxford, namely Tesco's, which is now resident to the queen and one of her corgey's (she was forced to eat the others), here it is 21 degrees, sunny, and most favorable.

The entire UK bar Oxford is gripped in an icey death clutch, which will last for 5,000 years, until the moon has completed it's circuit aound the solar system, and comes back into earth orbit, men no longer wear hats, and women have 6 hands:)

There you go, hope that forecast is more to your liking damianslaw

[cyclonic happiness]

EML'S Updated November forecast JUST for damianslaw :

November starts on a really really really mild note, nationwide temperatures of 37 degrees, bar tesco's in oxford, where some some bizzare reason, it's minus 26.4 and snowing.

During the evening of the 5th, someone hit the moon with a firework, so hard, that it's now moving away from the earth at a rate of 100 MPH, the effect on the earth is felt instantly.

As we wake up on the 6th we'll notice that 1/2 the coastal citys no longer exist, London has vanished, and the winds turn from a gentle southerly into a raging 150mph northerly, lasting the whole month, with once again the exception of Oxford, namely Tesco's, which is now resident to the queen and one of her corgey's (she was forced to eat the others), here it is 21 degrees, sunny, and most favorable.

The entire UK bar Oxford is gripped in an icey death clutch, which will last for 5,000 years, until the moon has completed it's circuit aound the solar system, and comes back into earth orbit, men no longer wear hats, and women have 6 hands:)

There you go, hope that forecast is more to your liking damianslaw

So, how much of that is based on fact?...........................*taps foot*

Also,this has been bugging me for years............ is it Damian's law or Damian slaw ?

Edited September 14, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[P-M]

EML'S Updated November forecast JUST for damianslaw :

November starts on a really really really mild note, nationwide temperatures of 37 degrees, bar tesco's in oxford, where some some bizzare reason, it's minus 26.4 and snowing.

During the evening of the 5th, someone hit the moon with a firework, so hard, that it's now moving away from the earth at a rate of 100 MPH, the effect on the earth is felt instantly.

As we wake up on the 6th we'll notice that 1/2 the coastal citys no longer exist, London has vanished, and the winds turn from a gentle southerly into a raging 150mph northerly, lasting the whole month, with once again the exception of Oxford, namely Tesco's, which is now resident to the queen and one of her corgey's (she was forced to eat the others), here it is 21 degrees, sunny, and most favorable.

The entire UK bar Oxford is gripped in an icey death clutch, which will last for 5,000 years, until the moon has completed it's circuit aound the solar system, and comes back into earth orbit, men no longer wear hats, and women have 6 hands:)

There you go, hope that forecast is more to your liking damianslaw

hahahahaha!!! That really made me laugh well done mate!!

[Don]

EML'S Updated November forecast JUST for damianslaw :

During the evening of the 5th, someone hit the moon with a firework, so hard, that it's now moving away from the earth at a rate of 100 MPH, the effect on the earth is felt instantly.

I always thought that fireworks were bad for the environment and that one day something like this would happen!!

Brilliant

Edited September 14, 2011 by Don

[summer blizzard]

Just rustled this together for you Nino vs Uk winter snow (nothing really to do with temps mind!)

La Nina Episodes Vs UK Winters 1949 - 2011

Weak (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly -0.5 to -0.9)

1956-57 Little snow overall.

1962-63 Very Snowy,Widespread heavy snow throughout Nov - March

1967-68 Little snow overall - Only report I could find was for foot & mouth!

1974-75 Little snow, Remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1995-96 Average, Snow (some very heavy) tended to fall in certain areas of the uk at certain points of the winter so not widespread and frequent enough to class as very snowy

2000-01 Average, as with the above, some heavy snow fell late Dec through into Feb but mainly a nothern England & Scotland affair including some decent drifting

Mod (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly -1 to -1.4)

1954-55 Very snowy, Widespread, blizzards,Dec- drifting/snow through to May

1950-51 Very snowy, Widespread heavy falls Dec, 102 days lying.

1964-65 Little snow ,No reports for this winter so nothing memorable ?

1970-71 Little snow ,Remembered as the start of a 6 year snow drought

1971-72 Little snow , Remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1998-99 Little if any snow

2007-08 Little snow, Another mild, largely snowless winter, but followed by some noteworthy wintry spells in early to mid spring. There were localised snow events from short-lived Arctic incursions in November, one in the Midlands on the 18th and another minor snow event in north-eastern areas on the 23rd. After a snowless December (the second in a row), a brief easterly blast brought snow showers and local thunder to eastern Scotland, NE England and Northern Ireland on the 3rd January, but mild air returned on the 4th. The rest of January was mostly mild with south-westerly winds, but further localised snow events occurred during the first half, mainly on high ground in the north. February was remarkable for its sunshine over much of England and Wales, but the only snow event of note occurred on the 1st/2nd, with high ground in northern England, plus parts of Scotland and Norfolk, briefly affected.

2010/11 Average, No-body needs reminding of this one, however, it started off a snowfest for most of the country but sadly became a mostly dry affair Jan and February. That said, was a pretty damn cold winter at that.

Strong (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly -1.5 +)

1949-50 - Little snow over all but "some" large falls of 12 inches

1955-56 Average - Netweather claim this was same as 54-55 but no info.

1973-74 Little snow, remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1975-76 Little snow, remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1984-85 Very snowy, Widespread heavy snow for most of the uk Jan & Feb

1988-89 Little snow- Warmest uk winter on record after as stormy autumn

1999-2000 Little if any snow, some say virtually nothing.

Notes:

Info regarding these winters has been taken from Netweather british winter history page. Little, Average or Snowy classification takes into account Widespread snow fall and lying days over the 3 months of winter. EG. Heavy snow in December does not count as very snowy if Jan and Feb are dry unless of course the snow has remained into either of these months or snow still falls in these months little or not. if snow is isolated to few areas such as scotland this would also be classed as Little snow.

Out of the last 21 La Nina episodes :

13 Co-incided with poor snowless winters some of which were mild

4 Were average winters where you would either see the north, south, east or west of the uk getting snow but not exactly widespread or continous throughout the winter months

4 Were real snow fest winters throughout the 3 months and in somecases longer. These were in the 1950's 60's and mid 80's

Had widespread snow continued through Jan-feb 2011 or the snow remained on the ground for longer than it did, then I would have classed that as a very snowy nina winter also.

Cheers

Ignoring the fact that ranking winters by snow rather than temperatures is extremely subjective and that the Multivarite ENSO index is a far better way of measuring the strength of a La Nina event, the winters of 1963 and 1968 were the only La Nina winters which also saw a strengthening -QBO through winter and are thus likely to be the best anologues despite the winter La Nina being stronger (that said a 1963 repeat is very unlikely).

[bobbydog]

here's my updated long range forecast:

SUMMER 2011 (review)

cancelled due to bad weather

AUTUMN 2011

after a dull start, it will probably stay dull, as autumn usually is. but not necessarily. it will probably be rainy and could be very windy at times but we could see some unseasonally good weather at some point during the autumn as this does happen sometimes. again, this depends on the weather.

temperatures should range between below normal and above normal and possibly normal

we are confident about rainfall during this period as it will definitely rain at some point

WINTER 2011/2012

if the scientists are to be believed, we could be in for a very harsh winter. if they are not then we won't. we do know that this winter will be very cold compared to the average summer and that snow will be a common sight on the top of the scottish mountains and siberia

temperatures will be well below the average compared to florida

rainfall will definitely amount to something and we are confident that any rain will be wet

SPRING 2012

Spring should be springy. judging by the past couple of years, this will probably be summer.

temperatures should range from -18c in my freezer to around 200c in my oven

i would be surprised to see any rainfall at all during spring, on the moon

SUMMER 2012

I won't bother mentioning summer, as it probably happened in spring

SUMMARY : Shades of 76 or any other year which matches the weather at any given time. but whatever the weather, enjoy it, because we'll all be dead by the end of next year, according to the mayans, or a supervolcano, or a comet, or something, or not....

Rob x

[Thundery wintry showers]

Personally I do not like the changeable weather in winter which so many asked for with a continued freeze/thaw situation because although I love snow I hate slush.

Your post rather puts me in mind of those brief milder interludes during an otherwise cold spell, where we see a temporary partial thaw (resulting in slush) and then a refreeze (resulting in ice). If that's what it's getting at, I agree with the sentiments. Indeed, it often annoys me when the media talk of such "welcome respites" which might make the roads a bit better, but ultimately turns snow to slush/ice making it far less fun and also more dangerous/inconvenient when out on foot or bicycle.

When I ask for alternating mild and cold spells, I envisage bouts of cold snowy weather separated by mild interludes with complete thaws (that way we don't get much slushy stuff except briefly at the breakdown of a cold spell). Interestingly, despite being a severe cold month, December 2010 in Tyneside was pretty good for this, as the midmonth thaw got all of the "old" snow out of the way, followed by fresh snow in the week leading up to Christmas, and thus few issues with slush/ice.

The reality though is that there is always a risk of lots of slush/ice resulting if the winter is changeable in the "wrong" way, so I understand where you're coming from. I think it would be most ideal if the UK had a stronger sun offset by cooler airmasses and thus thaws would tend to be initiated more by sunshine than by high dewpoints and rain (as the latter turn snow slushy/icy more quickly)- but that's just fantasy!

[Alex95]

Good for them, 40C abroad as extremely hot as that is I actually find more comfortable then 30C over here because in the meditarranian climate it's a differant sort of heat, much more dry and less sweaty, I hate the horrible headachy, and humid heat we get in the UK.

Florida is the other direction - one day in July it was 39C with a 'real feel' temperature of over 60C. After being there for 3 weeks I still hadn't fully got used to it! And the daily 30 minute thunderstorm didn't help all that much, although we had 3 all-day storms in the last week.

[Andy_]

I for one really enjoyed December 2010, being only 18 this was the best cold spell of weather I have ever known, especially after years of 'modern winters', anything in the same vain as the 2009-2011 period would make a good winter again in my eyes.

On that note, even though I am terribly under-qualified to predict the weather, I think we'll see a similar progression into this winter... with an early blast of cold, followed by less cold periods, and eventually milder boring sort of weather as we head into February. I think this will be especially so if La Nina is moderate to strong, and will become more effective later in the winter period. Hopefully Late November - Sometime in January 2012 will be able to meet the standard of last year (or even January 2010 which was also a very decent spell of weather), if not better, now that we are hopefully heading into a period of colder winters in the British Isles. Of course I hope February 2012 will be cold too but I'm not too confident!

[Weather-history]

SPRING 2012

Spring should be springy. judging by the past couple of years, this will probably be summer.

temperatures should range from -18c in my freezer to around 200c in my oven

i would be surprised to see any rainfall at all during spring, on the moon

It has been very notable around this neck of the woods on just how snowless the last 3 springs have been. The last time I saw snow during a spring month was April 2008. 2010 was very snowy in terms of lying snow but the spring of that year contributed absolutely nothing.

[Aaron]

Yeah, the past few springs here have been fairly snowless. March 2010 had around 1 cm here though, but March 2011 was my first March for ages with no snow falling.. and April had no air frost, extremely unusual.

Edited September 14, 2011 by Aaron

[Guest]

Your post rather puts me in mind of those brief milder interludes during an otherwise cold spell, where we see a temporary partial thaw (resulting in slush) and then a refreeze (resulting in ice). If that's what it's getting at, I agree with the sentiments. Indeed, it often annoys me when the media talk of such "welcome respites" which might make the roads a bit better, but ultimately turns snow to slush/ice making it far less fun and also more dangerous/inconvenient when out on foot or bicycle.

When I ask for alternating mild and cold spells, I envisage bouts of cold snowy weather separated by mild interludes with complete thaws (that way we don't get much slushy stuff except briefly at the breakdown of a cold spell). Interestingly, despite being a severe cold month, December 2010 in Tyneside was pretty good for this, as the midmonth thaw got all of the "old" snow out of the way, followed by fresh snow in the week leading up to Christmas, and thus few issues with slush/ice.

The reality though is that there is always a risk of lots of slush/ice resulting if the winter is changeable in the "wrong" way, so I understand where you're coming from. I think it would be most ideal if the UK had a stronger sun offset by cooler airmasses and thus thaws would tend to be initiated more by sunshine than by high dewpoints and rain (as the latter turn snow slushy/icy more quickly)- but that's just fantasy!

I pretty well agree with that - I am great lover of dry weather and hate damp humid conditions - I probably lived in a more continental climate in a former life:)

[Aaron]

I for one really enjoyed December 2010, being only 18 this was the best cold spell of weather I have ever known, especially after years of 'modern winters', anything in the same vain as the 2009-2011 period would make a good winter again in my eyes.

On that note, even though I am terribly under-qualified to predict the weather, I think we'll see a similar progression into this winter... with an early blast of cold, followed by less cold periods, and eventually milder boring sort of weather as we head into February. I think this will be especially so if La Nina is moderate to strong, and will become more effective later in the winter period. Hopefully Late November - Sometime in January 2012 will be able to meet the standard of last year (or even January 2010 which was also a very decent spell of weather), if not better, now that we are hopefully heading into a period of colder winters in the British Isles. Of course I hope February 2012 will be cold too but I'm not too confident!

Aren't we over due a cold February? And I am not meaning whimpy south-east concentrated snow like February 2009 but proper nationwide cold spell.

Edited September 14, 2011 by Aaron

[19jacobob93]

It has been very notable around this neck of the woods on just how snowless the last 3 springs have been. The last time I saw snow during a spring month was April 2008. 2010 was very snowy in terms of lying snow but the spring of that year contributed absolutely nothing.

We had an inch last April! I think it was on the 1st

[Chris D]

I for one really enjoyed December 2010, being only 18 this was the best cold spell of weather I have ever known, especially after years of 'modern winters', anything in the same vain as the 2009-2011 period would make a good winter again in my eyes.

On that note, even though I am terribly under-qualified to predict the weather, I think we'll see a similar progression into this winter... with an early blast of cold, followed by less cold periods, and eventually milder boring sort of weather as we head into February. I think this will be especially so if La Nina is moderate to strong, and will become more effective later in the winter period. Hopefully Late November - Sometime in January 2012 will be able to meet the standard of last year (or even January 2010 which was also a very decent spell of weather), if not better, now that we are hopefully heading into a period of colder winters in the British Isles. Of course I hope February 2012 will be cold too but I'm not too confident!

Almost exactly my thoughts. Also from my non-expert viewpoint, although I think this Winter will be similar to last year, I think it will be slightly drier than last year (due to the developing La Nina again). But personally, I don't want another December 2010 because I want to be able to come home during Christmas!

Edited September 14, 2011 by chris93

[Thundery wintry showers]

It has been very notable around this neck of the woods on just how snowless the last 3 springs have been. The last time I saw snow during a spring month was April 2008. 2010 was very snowy in terms of lying snow but the spring of that year contributed absolutely nothing.

Same here at Cleadon- the springs of 2009-11 produced 2, 1 and 0 days of sleet/snow falling here respectively, and 0 of snow lying. There were 2 snowless Marches in a row (2010, 2011) and 2011 was the first spring quarter since 2003 without any sleet or snow.

[Andy_]

Aren't we over due a cold February? And I am not meaning whimpy south-east concentrated snow like February 2009 but proper nationwide cold spell.

We definitely are here in the north east, February 2009 here wasn't anything special compared to what the south east got, I was left disappointed if I remember correctly, the 2008/09 winter wasn't very good to start with too, i think December 08 was OK'ish though.

Again if La Nina doesn't get too strong then by all means this coming February could have a decent possibility of being a cold month.

[Teesdale]

I wouldn't mind a milder winter, if it included a week long severe snowy spell. Still a waiting a proper blizzard.

[Thundery wintry showers]

February 2009 contained a large number of marginal snow events which delivered significant lasting snow cover to many inland and upland areas, particularly in the Midlands, parts of Yorkshire, NE Scotland and SW England, but many coastal and lowland areas struggled to see significant accumulations.

I wasn't disappointed by that spell because I spent it in Exeter, where I was thankful just to see any of the white stuff given my location (in fact there were two fairly significant snowfalls there) but I certainly got a strong sense of a letdown in the Tyne and Wear area. I remember expecting Cleadon to be heavily hit by snowstorms from the easterly on the 2nd February 2009 (in much the way that it did during late November/early December 2010) but temperatures were too marginal, only once dropping below 0.7C in one of the showers, and getting reports of 1-2 inches of slush from there.

[Gavin P]

I ended up with over 20cm of snow in February 2009, the greatest snowfall depth since 1991.

Though I was extremely lucky because I was right on the boundry line (went roughly from Bristol to the Wash) between the cold air to the north and the slightly less cold air to the south-east and as a result I managed to achive three seperate heavy snow events in the space of four days - One of those situations where the battle lines happened to set up right over my house.

So for snow, 2008/2009 easily beats 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, though clearly those later two winters were much colder.

Edited September 14, 2011 by Gavin P

[damianslaw]

So, how much of that is based on fact?...........................*taps foot*

Also,this has been bugging me for years............ is it Damian's law or Damian slaw ?

Its damianslaw.

EML forecast - yes sorry I did let alot of my own personal preferences influence my response to your particular forecast. But you have to admit it does read like a standard text book summary on what November on average delivers. Mind recent Novembers have been far from text book, with notable cold spells and notable very mild and very wet spells dominating, probably the last November to deliver what your forecast suggests was Nov 2004 but even that month saw a short snowy spell mid-late month. Nov 2007 was quite text book on reflection..

[ZONE 51]

At this stage i am expecting a cold and early start to winter at the mid to end of november, i cant say there be snowfall but colder much colder than normal with severe frosts and possible snow showers incoming from the NE as the high moves , a very cold high pressure indicating non-bartlett!- http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117 read this link to find out about the cold sets ups-and what to look out for on the charts as we roll into the late autumn, ive seen early flocks of birds moving away North and im sure there the same as last year but earlier, il have to read up what they could be as this indicates certain large scale weather pattern changes and if they are the same birds then as last year we had a very cold start and this was in november, and a short time before this by around a few weeks thats when i saw those birds flying of North in huge numbers.

we have an active altantic thats now shutting down a touch from a very active period, the high came earlier then i thought a few weeks back so i now bring foward the next atlantic fury! that would be early october with frosts coming mid-end of october.

i look at the models/data and its my thoughts, and as we progress through autumn il update, but i could be wrong or right as i am not an expert at all, but am learning and studying as much as possible and enjoying it! even when i get it wrong! because its the weather and its like a jigsaw thats hard to build the picture of whats to come weather wise a head, and if we do build that picture it may break up and end up being wrong but then thats weather!!

Edited September 15, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm