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Winter 2011/2012


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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

I think here at Cleadon December 2010 was probably the coldest calendar month since February 1963. I base this on the fact that during an "average" winter month, Cleadon is about 0.7C warmer than Durham, and during "easterly" months can be upwards of 1C warmer, but in December 2010 it was only 0.2C warmer than Durham, presumably due to the second cold spell of the month (16th-26th) having deeper snow cover at Cleadon, thus promoting lower temperatures at times despite coastal proximity.

January 1979 and February 1986 were colder months at Durham, but for them to have beaten December 2010 at Cleadon, Cleadon would have had to be less than 0.5C, and 0.6C, warmer than Durham respectively. I don't see this as particularly likely, especially in the case of February 1986 which was a very "easterly" month. However, February 1963 would've had to be less than 1.1C warmer which seems feasible.

In parts of Scotland and Ireland it was indeed the coldest calendar month for at least 250 years.

Theres a similar effect here. The mean for December 2010 was -0.1C and was just warmer than February 1986 which came in at -0.2C. Meanwhile just a few miles inland at Leconfield December 2010 was -0.8C and February 1986 -1.1C.

I think February 1986 would probably have been slightly colder than December 2010 in your location as it was here, especially as during that month we were probably under the influence of stronger onshore winds due to the persistent low pressure to the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Latest CFS temperature forecasts: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

Those charts have been subtly changing and to be honest are close to being worthless the further out they go. I wouldn't even call them a guide. I think too much emphasis are placed on these charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Those charts have been subtly changing and to be honest are close to being worthless the further out they go. I wouldn't even call them a guide. I think too much emphasis are placed on these charts.

I agree. Although the Pressure Anomaly charts are generally reasonably accurate 2 months out, I find

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Thought it about time to have an attempt at November...it's only 8/9 weeks away now, so the initial signs of what MIGHT come to pass, and the early signals, and trends are beginning to fall into place, plenty of time for things to change though, but anyway here goes nothing.

Jason's novice and totally incoherrant attempt at a November forecast

November starts off on a reletively settled note for the South and East with High pressure not too far away (well you wouldn't want to walk there, but if you was flying a plane it wouldn;t take long) !!

Low cloud, often broken up leaving some bright and crisp days here, but some notable cold nights, and some early frosts for the South.

The SW of the UK always at risk of catching the odd shower here and there, as they are closer to the effect of Low Pressure systems still feeding in off the atlantic much further to the north , not quite so cool under the cloud cover, and a little more breezy at times, but nothing that would blow your hat off your head.

Wales and central england, will be on the whole a little more overcast, and struggle to see as much broken cloud as further south, still though with the odd sunny breaks, but feeling quite damp on the whole, windier over wales, where it will feel colder, less windy in the midlands, where a more mixed start to november can be had, nd showers effecting the majority from time to time

Eastern england will fair best at the beginning of the month, more in the way of sunshine, and sheltered from the strongest winds, feeling quite pleasant and quite autumnal, a bit of a boring start to november for you guys, but at least you'll be able to enjoy setting fire to a big wooden horse on the 5th :)

North east england will start November with plenty of showers, and some longer spells of rain here, feeding in off the North sea, and also catching a few from Low Pressure systems feding off the altantic, some brisk winds, but again nothing that would stop you from running 100 metres in sub 10 seconds if you was an olympic 100 metres runner, overcast, damp, and feeling quite cold.

NW England, generally cold, wet, windy, overcast, and not the place to be if your feling suicidle, nothing extreme, just a bit pants if you like anything other than rain, and constand low cloud cover.

NW Scotland, here is likely to see more active weather, some strong winds on occasion, but with more breaks in the cloud, plenty of rain to be had here, plenty of morning frosts, and perhaps some moutain snow.

NE Scotland, I think this is where it will feel coldest, with some early sleetyness at low levels, not quite so windy as the West, but more overcast, and feeling damp, lots of frost, and perhaps the odd early snow shower on top of the hills , and again mountain snow.

MID NOVEMBER

As we head into the middle part of the month, i forsee things staying pretty much settled on the whole.

Southern England, is likely to be more under the influence of Low Pressure feeding in from the north/ North West, so less in the way of sunshine, and more in the way of rain, but the frosts overnight dissapear, so mirky, with fog /mist, and the winds beginning to pick up, feeling colder by day due to the change in drection of the wind.

SW England , I thinnk you guys will have a better mid month than beginning, with more in the way of sunshine than anywhere else, not so overcast as early month, and less in the way of wind, so now it's your turn to have some overnight frosts.

Wales paints a similar picture, but with more in the way of wind, feeling on the whole cold, and more chance of cathing the odd shower, a typical mid Autumn set up to be had here.

Midlands feeling cold, an increasingly strong wind, coming from the north, but bright on the whole here, bar the odd shower here and there. some overnight forsts.

NW and NE England, both feeling cold, both areas feeling the bite of the wind, time to start putting on your coats when you go out, and plenty of central heating systems being switched on both by day and by night, not so many open windows.

Scotland will feel cold, and it will be wet, with plenty of sleet to low levels, perhaps even the odd brief snow shower, and plenty of moutain snow, perhaps herlading an early opening ski season here.

End Of November

Southern England now under the full influence of Low Pressure systems feeding in from the North and West, windy, wet, even stormy, little in the way of sunshine, feeling cold, and it's our turn for the coats to go on, and the central heating, no snow, no sleet though, perhaps the chilterns, or north downs catching a brief snow shower overnight, but not ammasinng to much, maybe one could build a snow ant, but ont a snow man.

SW England, you guys have it lucky again, more mild, still cold, but not as cold as elsewhere in the country, and more in the way of sunshine, a few showers from time to time, and winds gentle on the whole.

Eastern England, cold, and windy, a few brighter intervals, but plenty of rain, sleet, and in the NE of England in perticular perhaps some early snow.

NW England, cold, very wet, very windy indeed, perhaps some extreme windy weather here, gusting to 80-90 mph at some point, before the month is out, sleetyness around, and the odd snow shower, but again not amounting to anything significant., generally a stormy time here for you lot,

Scotland, and exteme NE of england, will be cold, windy, and wet.

plenty of snow for NE Scotland, even to low lying levels, sleet, mixed with wet snow for NE england.

broken up well and interspersed with sunny intervals, so with the excpetion of the mountains, the snow that does fall is unlikely to ammass , lots of frost overnight, and feeling quite raw

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

What happened to Wales at the end of Novermber? did we disappear? lol smile.png

Edited by DeepSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

What happened to Wales at the end of Novermber? did we disappear? lol smile.png

Yes, you froze solid and dropped off lol! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Uhh, can we please have 3 months of solid snow cover? I'll pay handsomely!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Uhh, can we please have 3 months of solid snow cover? I'll pay handsomely!

Pay me up front and I'll sort that out for you.

No refunds.

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Posted
  • Location: Anglesey
  • Location: Anglesey

I see the ENSO forecast has been updated and it looks like we are headed for another La Nina winter, although probably not as strong. Does this mean we are likley to get another cold start to winter, although not as cold. Also, will winter end at the start of Jan similar to last. Maybe Mr Data can post some stats on classic winters of the past and whether they were La Nina years?

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Yes, you froze solid and dropped off lol! biggrin.png

Well atleast it means we will get some snow then laugh.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Things we've got to look out for between now and December include:

- Long Range Models/Charts

- Longe Range Forecasts

- Snow and Ice in Northern Hemisphere

- Weather Patterns

- La Nina

- Current Conditions (Oct-Dec)

- Snowfalls and Cold Spells in October

- Mild Spells (Oct-Nov)

- Forecasts for Cold Spells (Nov >)

http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/Heavy-snow-flurries-forecast-for-strath-in-October-06092011.htm

I think it is important to look out for things like cold snaps, frost and snow between now and winter. Looking at 850pha charts, I don't see any frosts between now and the end of the month. I've got a feeling that our first frost may happen in mid october onwards and first snowfalls in Aviemore from late October onwards.

James Madden, who has been relatively succesful with his summer forecast is yet again going for yet another winter with an early start and severe weather (worst from November to January). Despite winter being months away, Madden has stated that he expects snow as early as October in the Highlands. His Summer Forecast was in January, so October is a month away and he seems confident with some snow. Things like these will be important in improving or destroying my faith in his forecasts. If there was no snow in October and November and December being only slightly below average, I would give up on his winter forecast although January and Febuary could be severe, his forecasts exclusively points out early start to winter and the worst between (November to January).

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Weather Logistics UK is currently focused on producing seasonal weather forecasts for the British Isles. We’d like to tell you about the release of our winter weather prediction for 2011-12. Our early indications suggest that another cold season is ahead, with “snowlidays” 14% above normal and household and business heating bills up by 8 + 6%.

Weather Logistics first indications are for a another cold winter with above average snowfall.

As for myself, I haven't a clue.

Edited by mike Meehan
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Uhh, can we please have 3 months of solid snow cover? I'll pay handsomely!

ill sell you my winter if you want..had 6 months of snow cover last winter..but i guarantee you will want your money back at the end of it!

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

ill sell you my winter if you want..had 6 months of snow cover last winter..but i guarantee you will want your money back at the end of it!

Anything is better than 5 months of drizzle and grey skies. I'd take Edmonton's sunny, cold winters any day!

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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

Maybe Mr Data can post some stats on classic winters of the past and whether they were La Nina years?

Just rustled this together for you Nino vs Uk winter snow (nothing really to do with temps mind!)

La Nina Episodes Vs UK Winters 1949 - 2011

Weak (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly -0.5 to -0.9)

1956-57 Little snow overall.

1962-63 Very Snowy,Widespread heavy snow throughout Nov - March

1967-68 Little snow overall - Only report I could find was for foot & mouth!

1974-75 Little snow, Remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1995-96 Average, Snow (some very heavy) tended to fall in certain areas of the uk at certain points of the winter so not widespread and frequent enough to class as very snowy

2000-01 Average, as with the above, some heavy snow fell late Dec through into Feb but mainly a nothern England & Scotland affair including some decent drifting

Mod (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly -1 to -1.4)

1954-55 Very snowy, Widespread, blizzards,Dec- drifting/snow through to May

1950-51 Very snowy, Widespread heavy falls Dec, 102 days lying.

1964-65 Little snow ,No reports for this winter so nothing memorable ?

1970-71 Little snow ,Remembered as the start of a 6 year snow drought

1971-72 Little snow , Remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1998-99 Little if any snow

2007-08 Little snow, Another mild, largely snowless winter, but followed by some noteworthy wintry spells in early to mid spring. There were localised snow events from short-lived Arctic incursions in November, one in the Midlands on the 18th and another minor snow event in north-eastern areas on the 23rd. After a snowless December (the second in a row), a brief easterly blast brought snow showers and local thunder to eastern Scotland, NE England and Northern Ireland on the 3rd January, but mild air returned on the 4th. The rest of January was mostly mild with south-westerly winds, but further localised snow events occurred during the first half, mainly on high ground in the north. February was remarkable for its sunshine over much of England and Wales, but the only snow event of note occurred on the 1st/2nd, with high ground in northern England, plus parts of Scotland and Norfolk, briefly affected.

2010/11 Average, No-body needs reminding of this one, however, it started off a snowfest for most of the country but sadly became a mostly dry affair Jan and February. That said, was a pretty damn cold winter at that.

Strong (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly -1.5 +)

1949-50 - Little snow over all but "some" large falls of 12 inches

1955-56 Average - Netweather claim this was same as 54-55 but no info.

1973-74 Little snow, remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1975-76 Little snow, remembered for the 6 year snow drought

1984-85 Very snowy, Widespread heavy snow for most of the uk Jan & Feb

1988-89 Little snow- Warmest uk winter on record after as stormy autumn

1999-2000 Little if any snow, some say virtually nothing.

Notes:

Info regarding these winters has been taken from Netweather british winter history page. Little, Average or Snowy classification takes into account Widespread snow fall and lying days over the 3 months of winter. EG. Heavy snow in December does not count as very snowy if Jan and Feb are dry unless of course the snow has remained into either of these months or snow still falls in these months little or not. if snow is isolated to few areas such as scotland this would also be classed as Little snow.

Out of the last 21 La Nina episodes :

13 Co-incided with poor snowless winters some of which were mild

4 Were average winters where you would either see the north, south, east or west of the uk getting snow but not exactly widespread or continous throughout the winter months

4 Were real snow fest winters throughout the 3 months and in somecases longer. These were in the 1950's 60's and mid 80's

Had widespread snow continued through Jan-feb 2011 or the snow remained on the ground for longer than it did, then I would have classed that as a very snowy nina winter also.

Cheers

Edited by Snowmad79
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Posted
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl

Save anyone looking it if by chance they want to.

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.

How about this one, its one of my favs:

"An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field."

Anyone with any performance data on this Weather Logistics UK company?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Weather Logistics UK is currently focused on producing seasonal weather forecasts for the British Isles. We’d like to tell you about the release of our winter weather prediction for 2011-12. Our early indications suggest that another cold season is ahead, with “snowlidays” 14% above normal and household and business heating bills up by 8 + 6%.

Weather Logistics first indications are for a another cold winter with above average snowfall.

As for myself, I haven't a clue.

I have to say forecasts like this cause me some concern from the social point of view. They are known to be innacurate and based on dubious science that may well be believed by many of the general public. With many thousands under financial pressure over heating bills they don't need the added worry of crap outlooks of this nature. Fortunately most won't see it unless it's plasted over the Daily Mail.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A few comments on EML November forecast - was this copied from some text book - it reads like a text book summary on what on average November delivers. Scotland and NW Eng tend to see the stormiest and wettest conditions in November, and the SE the most settled conditions. The SW on average is the mildest part, and the NE tends to see some snow by the end of the month..

I ask what is the point of this forecast - it seems to me to be not a forecast just a summary of average conditions expected in November.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

1999-2000 Little if any snow, some say virtually nothing.

I can confirm that December 1999 was pretty snowy where I was and it is among one of the top 5 snowiest months of my life. Wasn't bitterly cold but snow fell every few days and there were plenty of accumilations. Although there were not snowfests in this period, I always loved the winters between 1999 and 2002 with plenty of snow spells (even restricted to a few days) that actually brought snow (compared to 2006/2007 which saw plenty of cold spells but no snow). Also, the weather overall was decent with nice sunny days, foggy nights, frost, large snowfalls and clear skies with the odd storm.

My Dream Winter would be:

November 15 - Below Average Temperatures Arrive

November 20 - First Snowfall

November 25> - Big Freeze takes hold

December - Lying snow every day, Short less cold spell mid month, max snow depth 60cm.

December - Coldest Every UK Temp

Widespread White Christmas

December - Coldest ever, lots of snow aswell as ice days and sunshine/clear nights. Low temps every day and snow every day from snow flurries to mega blizzards.

January - Not quite as heavy or persistent snow as Big Freeze continues.

January 15 - Big Freeze ends.

Rest of January - Rest bite, then a pattern of 5 day intense and very cold/snowy spells followed by rain, then crisp sunshine, some fog then back to snow.

Febuary - Same pattern throughout with some large Battleground snowfalls.

Febuary - A very cold and snowy two week spell mid month.

December CET = -3C

January CET = -0.6C

Febuary CET = 2.1C

Winter CET = -0.48C

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

My dream winter would be snow on the ground from November until March. But of course, that's what it is, a dream. At least there's Sweden not too far, I really need to book myself a 5 month holiday there!

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

My Dream Winter would be:

November 15 - Below Average Temperatures Arrive

November 20 - First Snowfall

November 25> - Big Freeze takes hold

December - Lying snow every day, Short less cold spell mid month, max snow depth 60cm.

December - Coldest Every UK Temp

Widespread White Christmas

December - Coldest ever, lots of snow aswell as ice days and sunshine/clear nights. Low temps every day and snow every day from snow flurries to mega blizzards.

January - Not quite as heavy or persistent snow as Big Freeze continues.

January 15 - Big Freeze ends.

Rest of January - Rest bite, then a pattern of 5 day intense and very cold/snowy spells followed by rain, then crisp sunshine, some fog then back to snow.

Febuary - Same pattern throughout with some large Battleground snowfalls.

Febuary - A very cold and snowy two week spell mid month.

December CET = -3C

January CET = -0.6C

Febuary CET = 2.1C

Winter CET = -0.48C

who pays your fuel bills mate?

have you got elderly relatives and perhaps wonder how they might cope?

I do remember 1947 as a kid and loved it

I worked through 1962-63 and by mid January it was way past a joke believe me.

Last December was unique, well pretty near to unique, and it was causing huge problems before it ended, transport, moving food etc, a large increase in hospital admissions.

I like your idea of short sharp cold and snowy spells but not prolonged thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

who pays your fuel bills mate?

have you got elderly relatives and perhaps wonder how they might cope?

I do remember 1947 as a kid and loved it

I worked through 1962-63 and by mid January it was way past a joke believe me.

Last December was unique, well pretty near to unique, and it was causing huge problems before it ended, transport, moving food etc, a large increase in hospital admissions.

I like your idea of short sharp cold and snowy spells but not prolonged thanks.

It really annoys me when people say this, stop trying to put a dampener on people wanting cold weather, it's really irritating and it isn't going to change peoples opinions.

I do not have much money to my name, not much at all, but I can afford to pay my fuel bills. It's sad that people can't but I know nobody who has such problems so I'm sorry to say this but it doesn't bother me too much.

Edited by Aaron
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