Winter 2011/2012

[Thundery wintry showers]

Winter 1890-91 would certainly have been a big improvement on the pear shaped 2010-11 winter. Dec 1890 was the coldest December ever, but it stayed very cold through much of Jan 1891 and Feb 1891 only returned to about average, and then the cold returned in March / April and gave a particularly cold spring - 1890-91 is certainly far removed from 2010-11 when December's cold dissappeared abruptly and never returned for the rest of the winter.

But as January 2011 demonstrated, many snow lovers aren't all that impressed with cold if there isn't much in the way of snow to match it. When I panned through the synoptics of November 1890 to March 1891 on Wetterzentrale recently, other than the cold spell in the last week of November 1890, the synoptics didn't look too appealing to me as far as widespread snowfall is concerned, with a lot of "inversion cold" associated with anticyclones. Appearances can be deceptive but it seems unlikely to me that December 1890 was anywhere near as snowy, taking the country as a whole, as December 2010.

I'll agree that February/March 1891 were far more interesting than their 2011 counterparts though. February 1891 bore a striking amount of resemblance to February 2008, and of course the following March was decidedly wintry.

[MP-R]

I'm more interested in snow than record temperatures. As is often the case, unless synoptics are exceptional, the record temperatures come with the snow cover. I also like cold to be spread out across the whole season, not just in one month. The same goes for summer - it's incredibly annoying having endless sunshine and warmth in June, only to be replaced by Atlantic dross in July and August.

Hopefully this year, any early cold will come in snaps rather than lengthy spells. I personally don't want any lengthy cold to begin until at least December 21st.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I'm more interested in snow than record temperatures. As is often the case, unless synoptics are exceptional, the record temperatures come with the snow cover. I also like cold to be spread out across the whole season, not just in one month. The same goes for summer - it's incredibly annoying having endless sunshine and warmth in June, only to be replaced by Atlantic dross in July and August.

Hopefully this year, any early cold will come in snaps rather than lengthy spells. I personally don't want any lengthy cold to begin until at least December 21st.

That is just what I feel is best in terms of a cold winter overall. Around Dec 21st is when the big freeze of 1962-63 started, and the freeze up in 1978-79 didn't really start until Dec 30th. I personally feel that a deep cold spell setting in around Xmas week or the week before is most favourable in terms of "staying power" to turn into a classic cold winter. I think that too much serious cold pre Xmas is unlikely to turn into a winter that is seen as a classic, and persist for most of the winter season. This is what we saw in 2010-11, when deep cold set in during the last week of November and lasted till Xmas only to dissappear and never return during the rest of the winter. Serious cold before Xmas persisting for most of the winter season is certainly extremely rare.

On the other hand, I do not feel that persistent mild weather pre Xmas is a good sign either for a cold winter. Personally I'd say that the ideal pattern to lead into a cold winter is a mixed bag of weather with a few short cold snaps pre Xmas, and then a serious cold spell setting up around the winter solstice or the Xmas period.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The statistics don't really bear this out. There were numerous very cold Decembers during the 19th century, and most of these were actually followed by cold Januarys, with milder weather not really taking hold until February.

What the stats suggest to me is that severe cold very rarely has more than two months' worth of "staying power", be it in December/January or January/February.

[Mark Parsons]

That is just what I feel is best in terms of a cold winter overall. Around Dec 21st is when the big freeze of 1962-63 started, and the freeze up in 1978-79 didn't really start until Dec 30th. I personally feel that a deep cold spell setting in around Xmas week or the week before is most favourable in terms of "staying power" to turn into a classic cold winter. I think that too much serious cold pre Xmas is unlikely to turn into a winter that is seen as a classic, and persist for most of the winter season. This is what we saw in 2010-11, when deep cold set in during the last week of November and lasted till Xmas only to dissappear and never return during the rest of the winter. Serious cold before Xmas persisting for most of the winter season is certainly extremely rare.

On the other hand, I do not feel that persistent mild weather pre Xmas is a good sign either for a cold winter. Personally I'd say that the ideal pattern to lead into a cold winter is a mixed bag of weather with a few short cold snaps pre Xmas, and then a serious cold spell setting up around the winter solstice or the Xmas period.

I would totally agree with that and the coldest winters often do not yield much snow, a winter close to average gives more snow!

[stewfox]

What I am talking about is winters that had notable cold spells in otherwise average to mild winters - whereby removing a relatively small part of the winter (less than a month) from the equation a substantial amount is added to the CET. In 1986-87 taking 14 days away adds 1.1 to the winter CET. Taking 27 days away from 2010-11 adds 1.9 to the CET.

1995-96 was cold for a large part of the winter and the only mild spell was in the first 20 days of Jan and it only became average towards the last week of Feb.

Winter 1890-91 would certainly have been a big improvement on the pear shaped 2010-11 winter. Dec 1890 was the coldest December ever, but it stayed very cold through much of Jan 1891 and Feb 1891 only returned to about average, and then the cold returned in March / April and gave a particularly cold spring - 1890-91 is certainly far removed from 2010-11 when December's cold dissappeared abruptly and never returned for the rest of the winter.

February 2011 was fairly typical of a March even of today's standards, and it certainly felt far from what a February should be like.

You take 27 cold days out of last year and get a milder winter

Take 27 mild days out of 1995/6 and you get a colder winter

Makes sense to me

Ps Jan 2011 was below average (CET)

Haven't we been here before ?

[kold weather]

Another season a little like the last one was 1944/45...we had a below average December that was cold but nothing too extreme, a very cold Jan and a VERY mild Feb.

I suppose because the Feb was very mild that must have been a very poor winter as wll...

NEB, I think your sorta missing the point about last winter, it WAS lop-sided but it had a severe cold spell that would frankly grace any oif the big winters of the past.

How many winters in the past 20 years have even come close to getting a sub zero CET month...yet alone one that was actually way below 0C. We had our 2nd coldest december EVER...if this winter isn't good enough to be described as cold then frankly niether is 1981-82, 40-41, 85-86 because all three had similar monthly profiles, IE one above average month, one a below and one very cold month.

[Cheese Rice]

February wasn't that mild, the average temperature for here was 7.c, there were several February's at or milder than 7.c.

2008: 8.c

2007: 7.c

2004: 7.c

2002: 8.c

2000: 8.c

1999: 7.c

1998: 9.c

1997: 8.c

Temperatures dropped at or below freezing five times during Feb 2011, there was a moderate covering and some sleet/wet snow on the odd day.

Compare that to past Feb's where there wasn't a single snowflake.

[virtualsphere]

it WAS lop-sided but it had a severe cold spell that would frankly grace any oif the big winters of the past.

Good post. February was disappointing given what came before it, but January wasn't mild even though it was a nondescript month. The last third of November wasn't just a wintry autumnal spell but would stand up there with some of the best spells during the meteorological winter for many. If November had been December, and last winter was N-D-J instead of D-J-F, it would probably be held in higher regard overall, especially since having a wet and windy start to December was fairly normal even in the best winters until recently.

This year seems to have followed in the same vein, as if the seasons have shifted forward: a spring-like February, summer-like April, and now an early autumnal spell of weather. Maybe we'll have another early winter spell, though we're probably overdue another mild December at some point since we've only had one 6+ December CET since 1994 (in 2006). Having seen an exceptional December and decent January in 2010, it would be nice to see a cold, snowy February!

[Stormyking]

Right here is my Winter forecaster, like i said i was going to do earlier on today, now this is just my personal opinion!

November up the beginning of March.

November: Precipitation- Average to just slightly below

Temperature- Average

Ok here goes, the start of the month I reckon will be mostly settled with nice sunshine at times along with some cold frosty nights for all of the UK. High pressure will be pretty dominant for most of the month with the continuence of dry days and cold frosty/ foggy nights. Towards the End of the month I reckon will start to get unsettled with some atlantic weather fronts pushing in giving rain and wind for almost everywhere, but may see some wintry stuff over higher ground in the North.

December: Precipitation- Average to just slightly above

Temperature- Average to just sligthly below

First half of the month I reckon will be unsettled with across the country with heavy and strong winds at times, again over higher ground could be wintry with some Sleet/snow mix. As we go into the 2nd half of the month I reckon we will see things turn colder and more wintry, with a greenland high developing, I reckon over the Christmas period will see some cold weather with some harsh frosts and sleet and snow at times across the country, espeically across the North/ East, South East and maybe C/S areas as well.

January: Precipitation- Average to just slightly below

Temperature- Just below Average

Start of January will carry on theme of cold weather snowfall almost anywhere, and some very harsh frost! however I reckon mid month will see things some what milder with the Atlantic fighting back giving heavy rain/ sleet and gales to places. This will be like that for the next week or 2 until the last week of January. I reckon last week of January will see a Scandi high developing, which mean it will bring in a rawww easterly with outbreaks of Snow/ Snow showers across Eastern England, South East and C/S England, and parts of the North East, giving many inches across the country.

February: Precipitation- Average

Temperature- Below Average

Start of February will be very cold in places me thinks with Snow showers affection almost anywhere which would give more disruption. into the middle part of february I reckon will be more quieter with a winter high over us giving some quiet but cold and frosty conditions for a while before a winter moves in from the Atlantic giving some heavy rain and gales for a time. Towards the last part of february and beginning of March will turn colder and wintry again, but this time because of a Greenland high developing, meaning cold with wintry precipitation across the country of sleet/snow and hail.

Like I said this is how I think winter will pan out, mixed but mostly cold with snow at times for just about everywhere, along with some milder interludes. I reckon end of January into the beginning of February will be the coldest period.

Let me know what you think, hope you enjoyed reading my forecast

[richardc1983]

Anyone read weathergeeks forecast on http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html hes going for the all out cold/freezing theme with a long hard winter.

Many people think hes over the top but he got this summer correct and also last winter he was right for the majority.

[Mark Neal.]

Anyone read weathergeeks forecast on http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html hes going for the all out cold/freezing theme with a long hard winter.

Many people think hes over the top but he got this summer correct and also last winter he was right for the majority.

As someone who wants weather geek's forecast to be true, i am obviously going to be believing this is the most likely option , Very Interesting to see that he is going for a long harsh winter, i think it may well be snowy and cold but not as bad as previous winter's gone by in recent times.

[Methuselah]

Anyone read weathergeeks forecast on http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html hes going for the all out cold/freezing theme with a long hard winter.

Many people think hes over the top but he got this summer correct and also last winter he was right for the majority.

Just another 'guesser'?

[Aaron]

Just another 'guesser'?

Yes. LRF's, most of the mat least, are just going with the flow 'everyone is vouching for a colder winter so I will too'

[mcweather]

Another season a little like the last one was 1944/45...we had a below average December that was cold but nothing too extreme, a very cold Jan and a VERY mild Feb.

I suppose because the Feb was very mild that must have been a very poor winter as wll...

NEB, I think your sorta missing the point about last winter, it WAS lop-sided but it had a severe cold spell that would frankly grace any oif the big winters of the past.

How many winters in the past 20 years have even come close to getting a sub zero CET month...yet alone one that was actually way below 0C. We had our 2nd coldest december EVER...if this winter isn't good enough to be described as cold then frankly niether is 1981-82, 40-41, 85-86 because all three had similar monthly profiles, IE one above average month, one a below and one very cold month.

This very true KOLDWEATHER.

Even our harshest winters like 47 or 63 only really had about 6- 8 weeks of desperately harsh cold and snowy weather.

The winter of 2010/11 was a classic in terms of it bitter cold and snow.(Colder than 1890 in my part of the country) but not a classic in terms of timing.

Because most of our classic winters have had their harshest spells in Jan and Feb many people find it hard to accept that a winter that starts in mid Nov but ends by New Year could be classed as something special despite the fact that December 2010 was the coldest month any posters on this forum under the age of 25 have ever live through.

[loafer]

Anyone read weathergeeks forecast on http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html hes going for the all out cold/freezing theme with a long hard winter.

Many people think hes over the top but he got this summer correct and also last winter he was right for the majority.

I'm loving his use of the word "swirly"...

[Lake District Blizzard]

How about this for an idea of how cold December 2010 was in Cumbria, At Newton rigg, Penrith, it was the Coldest MONTH ever with a mean of -2.8c beating the previous coldest ever month january 1940 with a mean of -1.9c, so almost 1c colder.

The 63's means were -1.1c and -1.3c

According to the Cumbria Weather Report this coldest ever month was across the whole of North and East Cumbria

[karyo]

Do we have an ENSO update for the coming months and winter? I know CFS was going for a dtrong La Nina developing with most other models having a weaker event. I've noticed that there's been a turnaround in the last few weeks, in the CFS temperature forecasts for January and February. So I wonder whether it has now toned down it's strong La Nina forecast?

Latest CFS temperature forecasts: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

[Teesdale]

How about this for an idea of how cold December 2010 was in Cumbria, At Newton rigg, Penrith, it was the Coldest MONTH ever with a mean of -2.8c beating the previous coldest ever month january 1940 with a mean of -1.9c, so almost 1c colder.

The 63's means were -1.1c and -1.3c

According to the Cumbria Weather Report this coldest ever month was across the whole of North and East Cumbria

The extreme cold was focused in the Eden Valley around Penrith northwards towards Carlisle. Keswick/Ambleside were both colder in 1940 as the report says. Higher area's such as around Alston were probably colder in Feb 1947 and Jan 1963.

Here not far from Cumbria, it was coldest month since Feb 1986 with many colder months in the past

[Downburst]

I'm loving his use of the word "swirly"...

Yes, a casual look at some of the expressions such as "other in depth" etc and some emotive language suggest no trained scientist developed this, and what about the tiny writin?. Perhaps a mad scientist and there are a few about. The internet is a great thing but my word does it need to be parsed carefully to get to the truth. LRF are never to be taken as gospel. I mean if he had given some weighting like, we think an 80% chance etc it might be more useful.

I think they may be after some money with this bit "the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy"

Do we have an ENSO update for the coming months and winter? I know CFS was going for a dtrong La Nina developing with most other models having a weaker event. I've noticed that there's been a turnaround in the last few weeks, in the CFS temperature forecasts for January and February. So I wonder whether it has now toned down it's strong La Nina forecast?

Latest CFS temperature forecasts: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

Karyo

Hi Karyo. Don't want to split hairs and I know this is a tiny area and only the start of the period. That CFS shows a cool southern Ireland in September. Half way through now and all major stations showing above normal over the 30 year mean. If we continue to get SW's I can't see anything other than above normal for the month. I know CFS is far bigger than that but I thought it an interesting observation

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think here at Cleadon December 2010 was probably the coldest calendar month since February 1963. I base this on the fact that during an "average" winter month, Cleadon is about 0.7C warmer than Durham, and during "easterly" months can be upwards of 1C warmer, but in December 2010 it was only 0.2C warmer than Durham, presumably due to the second cold spell of the month (16th-26th) having deeper snow cover at Cleadon, thus promoting lower temperatures at times despite coastal proximity.

January 1979 and February 1986 were colder months at Durham, but for them to have beaten December 2010 at Cleadon, Cleadon would have had to be less than 0.5C, and 0.6C, warmer than Durham respectively. I don't see this as particularly likely, especially in the case of February 1986 which was a very "easterly" month. However, February 1963 would've had to be less than 1.1C warmer which seems feasible.

In parts of Scotland and Ireland it was indeed the coldest calendar month for at least 250 years.

[karyo]

Yes, a casual look at some of the expressions such as "other in depth" etc and some emotive language suggest no trained scientist developed this, and what about the tiny writin?. Perhaps a mad scientist and there are a few about. The internet is a great thing but my word does it need to be parsed carefully to get to the truth. LRF are never to be taken as gospel. I mean if he had given some weighting like, we think an 80% chance etc it might be more useful.

I think they may be after some money with this bit "the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy"

Hi Karyo. Don't want to split hairs and I know this is a tiny area and only the start of the period. That CFS shows a cool southern Ireland in September. Half way through now and all major stations showing above normal over the 30 year mean. If we continue to get SW's I can't see anything other than above normal for the month. I know CFS is far bigger than that but I thought it an interesting observation

hi Downburst, indeed it is! It might end up being correct though as we have quite a long way to go till the end of the month. If not, then it throwns a lot of doubt for the outlook.

Karyo

[stewfox]

Just another 'guesser'?

Its all 'guess', at this stage but like reading the horoscopes its mildy addictive and amusing.

I'm putiing forward my prediction for 2011/12 winter in March 2012 when the teleconnections should be clearer.

However a few things are certain to happen this winter my predictions are as follows.

First will it snow on Christmas day post 20th November 2011 with JH usual response.

First 'winters over' posted 22nd December 2011

12th IMBY complaints by 27th December 2011

435 unrelated postings in model threads by 12th January this could increase to 2345 unrelated post in the out put model discussion if cold weather is seen within T384 with a resulting increase in 'experts'

[johnholmes]

Its all 'guess', at this stage but like reading the horoscopes its mildy addictive and amusing.

I'm putiing forward my prediction for 2011/12 winter in March 2012 when the teleconnections should be clearer.

However a few things are certain to happen this winter my predictions are as follows.

First will it snow on Christmas day post 20th November 2011 with JH usual response.

First 'winters over' posted 22nd December 2011

12th IMBY complaints by 27th December 2011

435 unrelated postings in model threads by 12th January this could increase to 2345 unrelated post in the out put model discussion if cold weather is seen within T384 with a resulting increase in 'experts'

good to see someone with a sense of humour-one or two have got rather wound up, not about the title but was it was'nt it last winter or 19xy/ab,

I'll try not to disappoint in the usual time scale!

Edited September 12, 2011 by johnholmes

[mcweather]

Its all 'guess', at this stage but like reading the horoscopes its mildy addictive and amusing.

I'm putiing forward my prediction for 2011/12 winter in March 2012 when the teleconnections should be clearer.

However a few things are certain to happen this winter my predictions are as follows.

First will it snow on Christmas day post 20th November 2011 with JH usual response.

First 'winters over' posted 22nd December 2011

12th IMBY complaints by 27th December 2011

435 unrelated postings in model threads by 12th January this could increase to 2345 unrelated post in the out put model discussion if cold weather is seen within T384 with a resulting increase in 'experts'

Nice post Stewfox Although I think you're wrong about the first winters over post being on December22nd because I'm going to post one now.

Winters over folks.