Winter 2011/2012

[Methuselah]

Cheers, John.

[johnholmes]

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/centralengav_temperat.htm

the above link is just one of the CET lists of data; this one from 1900, there are those available from 1659 the earliest date that Professor Manley, the originator, went back to

[19jacobob93]

It doesn't say that at all! It's cold weather for Nov. and Dec. The mild is said to be January, but with the caution that confidence is low at that time period. Chin up!

Surprisingly, even though we had a lot of snow last year, 17th December (12" where I live, something that wasn't predicted by any major weather..people), my favourite winter of my short life was January 2010, because even though the snow was less, it seemed to last longer, around 2 weeks if I remember correctly. That season also brought a couple of inches in December aswell.

I hope we get some Nov. - February cold/snow as my Dad keeps going on about 63, boasting almost and I feel a little sad haa

Like I said, it contradicts itself a bit but it's still early stages!

And I preferred 2009/2010 as well even though last year was much more severe!

2009/2010:

Days of lying snow = 37

Lowest maximum = -3°C

Lowest minimum = -12°C

Deepest snow = 1' (4' drifts)

2010/2011:

Days of lying snow = 34 (22 consecutive)

Lowest maximum = -8°C!

Lowest minimum = -15°C

Deepest snow = 15" (6' drifts!)

Note: The temperature never rose above freezing point between 26th November and 9th December, that's 2 weeks!

I think 2009/2010 was more charming because it started snowing a week prior to Christmas, adding to the festivity, and it carried on snowing for a few weeks after, which dragged out that Christmassy feel!

2010/2011 ran out of steam before Christmas!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I said 'the last few years' didnt mention any Novembers before that. READ the posts correctly so you get your reply 100% right.

To be fair, the last few years would lead me to believe 2-3 years? In that time we had a cold February in 2009, a very cold January in 2010 and another cold february in 2010 also.

It is important to remember that only the last week of November 2010 was cold, up until then it had been fairly average, indeed mild in the first week.

Edited October 13, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[Aaron]

I said 'the last few years' didnt mention any Novembers before that. READ the posts correctly so you get your reply 100% right.

Yes.. but the past few winters haven't had a cold November except the one just gone.

Now.. I think I'll stop.. before I get in bother.

[weathe20]

To be fair, the last few years would lead me to believe 2-3 years? In that time we had a cold February in 2009, a very cold January in 2010 and another cold february in 2010 also.

It is important to remember that only the last week of November 2010 was cold, up until then it had been fairly average, indeed mild in the first week.

Ok ok..lol. Must be my IMBY perspective.

[jethro]

There's an historical section of the forum for discussing past winters, this thread is for the upcoming winter.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's the bare bones of my winter forecast.

NOV ... Could return to very mild after some late October cold spells, then become rather wintry at times towards end. CET 5-6.

DEC ... Variable with stormy potential, coldest mid-month, rather mild at Christmas and almost to New Years. CET 4-5.

JAN ... Turning quite cold early on and potentially severe cold at times, good snow potential, CET 0-2.

FEB ... If the cold lasts to end of January, it may depart very early February after which rather mild to very mild, and CET 5-7.

MAR ... Back to modified winter by middle to end of month, CET 5-7.

From that scenario, I would say January might be the "it" month of this winter, not December as per last year. But the data analysis that leads me to this forecast contains a fairly wide range of conditions in best analogues, which leads me to suspect that the winter may be broken up into many brief spells and frequent pattern changes, as a mild Atlantic flow competes with the continental influence and the Greenland express sort of pattern for dominance -- in the end, all may get roughly equal time.

But if January is indeed severely cold, then that gives a lot of time and space for snowstorms to come and go. This scenario is not vastly different from 1986-87 as it happens.

As for a white Christmas, would say it may be a case of snow coming a week to ten days before Christmas in some places and then would it hang on or melt during rising temperatures that might peak a few days after Christmas -- the usual ambiguous outcome but from what I understand of betting requirements, not that kind of white Christmas with snow actually falling, although Scotland worth a punt.

Edited October 13, 2011 by Roger J Smith

[Gavin P]

Thanks Roger.

Sounds an interesting winter to say the least.

[kold weather]

If I had to make a call mine wouldn't be much different to Roger's, though I'd be a fair bit milder with Jan, maybe between 3-4C, but the basic trends would be similar.

Pattern is broadly similar still to last winter though maybe not quite as condusive for a exceptional cold spell. Suspect Feb will be quite a poor month for winter lovers overall again.

[summer blizzard]

Probably because it didn't turn cold until the 25th. This is the chart/set up that brought the arctic blast, the HP to the west 'toppled' 5 days later ending it.

http://www.wetterzen...00120051125.gif

BFTP

It was cold from about the 12th, however it did not turn snowy until the 25th.

I cannot at the moment as i do not have office however i am sure the daily CET readings would back me up.

Edited October 13, 2011 by summer blizzard

[Daniel Miller]

Like I said, it contradicts itself a bit but it's still early stages!

And I preferred 2009/2010 as well even though last year was much more severe!

2009/2010:

Days of lying snow = 37

Lowest maximum = -3°C

Lowest minimum = -12°C

Deepest snow = 1' (4' drifts)

2010/2011:

Days of lying snow = 34 (22 consecutive)

Lowest maximum = -8°C!

Lowest minimum = -15°C

Deepest snow = 15" (6' drifts!)

Note: The temperature never rose above freezing point between 26th November and 9th December, that's 2 weeks!

I think 2009/2010 was more charming because it started snowing a week prior to Christmas, adding to the festivity, and it carried on snowing for a few weeks after, which dragged out that Christmassy feel!

2010/2011 ran out of steam before Christmas!

Are those figures for your area? Where I live, November wasn't that good compared to a lot of other places as we only got 1-2 inches of snow However, the thing I remember most is that it didn't stop snowing for about a week! The snow was only v. light though but it was cool having it snow everywhere I went

Yeah, the problem with last year was although I had loads of snow on the ground at Christmas, it was all old snow and melted a couple of days later

[19jacobob93]

Are those figures for your area? Where I live, November wasn't that good compared to a lot of other places as we only got 1-2 inches of snow However, the thing I remember most is that it didn't stop snowing for about a week! The snow was only v. light though but it was cool having it snow everywhere I went

Yeah, the problem with last year was although I had loads of snow on the ground at Christmas, it was all old snow and melted a couple of days later

Yep that's data I collected myself And the last few days of November weren't that bad here, I think we had a few inches of uneven drifted snow, but the real stuff came on the 1st of December! Around 10 inches of snow fell in 9 hours and at one point 3 inches fell within an hour!

And yep, the snow started melting on Boxing day but it still stuck around for another week or so. That was it for snow then until the 19th of February! Very bland after Christmas!

[jethro]

What have the last three posts got to do with the upcoming winter? If anyone can predict this winter from last year's or the year before etc then please share your theory, otherwise it's completely irrelevant to this thread.

[Liam J]

Just come across this on another website (Irish) make of it what you want.

Edited October 13, 2011 by Paul
Sorry, copying and pasting from other websites without a link to the source isn't allowable

[cyclonic happiness]

All so the jet stream patterns. i do myself see a shift in seasonal weather patterns, something is going on! here in the south its still very mild even warm and its mid october, so we wonder what iceage-but its not as simple as that!, but what we are looking at is the higher risk of widespread real winter weather early and more chance of potent cold when it does come, my line is"the cold will be colder" now that may sound strange to some but think about the december extremes last year, where did that come from! are we meant to experience that type of cold? very rare it is but then january 2010 was rare to so then if a third comes this year then that would be remarkable to say the least, we cant get another severe month like december or january as cold and widespread because its rare? not so rare now as we are in a cold phase a pattern that will evolve once again this year and into next, the jet stream going for a long holiday south taking with it rains to the far south, while we pull in more snow and cold weather than we can be used to in a normal season, cant give it the go flag just yet but i would say a very high chance of the same setups as last year, the signals are rolling out and they indicate this, we cant say extreme cold right now because these things come from nowhere, they build up and bottle up then we hit the right setup and its like blowing a strong cork from a wine bottle releasing the severe cold air towards our shores.

No-one thinks that very mild after very mild winters are unusual and we had those for almost 20 years, so why not cold upon cold?

We are in a new era now, with new rules, we just have to find out what the rules are and how they work.

[Gavin P]

^^^^^^^^^^

That looks remarkably similar to Rogers forecast.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Just come across this on another website (Irish) make of it what you want.

Overview for winter 2011-12

From a starting point in mid-October, we consider the five month period November to March, with "climatological winter" defined as being the months of December, January and February, whereas "meteorological winter" can, as we saw last year, fall in any of the five months in the Irish climate.

As is now becoming clearer on reliable time frame global forecast models, late October could be a lot colder than the past three weeks have been. That colder trend may fade out for part of early NOVEMBER with another mild spell, but colder weather with some snow may then return in the second half of November. In general this is not expected to be as dramatic as last year, and the severe cold is not expected to continue through most of DECEMBER; instead, there may be roughly equal spells of mild and cold weather with possibly a rather stormy theme and a wide variety of daily weather types that will include some strong winds, some heavy rainfalls and some snow or ice. The output for the Christmas to New Year period suggests a milder interval after some rather cold days about a week before Christmas.

JANUARY may be "the" month of the winter as our model forecast suggests some much colder than average weather through most of the month. The details may include a few brief milder turns which could involve snow to rain type breakdowns, but there are indications of cold spells with northeast or east winds that are often associated with snow in eastern counties, and in particular around Meath and Dublin. as well as Wicklow. The lunar components suggest that the week starting around 8th January could become stormy and cold enough for snow to be dominant by then, although the south could remain in more mixed precipitation. The greatest depth of cold, suggesting higher pressure building up from the east, should come a little after mid-January. More snow seems likely in the period that has delivered in some recent winters, around end of January and first few days of February.

The output then suggests a steady warming trend to produce a rather mild FEBRUARY once that early cold and snow comes and goes, and that scenario suggests some risk of flooding with the thaw and melt. Otherwise February may become a rather settled and almost early spring-like month with some of the model temperature output well above normal.

MARCH looks rather chilly especially towards the end, and could involve a minor return to winter or near winter conditions, so in terms of a seasonal "overview" the dominant theme might be variable but a colder winter than many in the "modern" period, perhaps a winter more typical of the colder climate periods of the past, but either not as extreme as last year, or if everything comes together just right (or wrong, depending on your point of view), a January that may remind us of the December of last winter, with some previews of that in mid-December. Wishing to remain a bit conservative, the monthly temperature forecasts relative to normal are set as:

NOV -1 deg (variable but trending cold)

DEC 0 deg (on balance normal but variable, stormy)

JAN -2 deg (cold, and potentially colder to -4 deg, depending on snow cover)

FEB +2 deg (after a cold start, mild to very mild)

MAR -1 deg (mild to start but becoming rather cool later)

Precipitation forecasting tends to be error-prone just because of greater regional complexity, but with so many changes in regime, it would be sensible to expect some intervals of heavy precipitation and also some two to three week dry spells. Over the research period, winter full and new moons tend to be more stormy than background in the eastern Atlantic, and we'll explore some of the research model details in that regard as we move through the season. The full moon around 10-11 December should produce a significant storm (probably the second of a set) likely moving northwest to southeast given the expected setup, so that could be a time for one of the winter's stronger wind events. The new moon around Christmas is embedded in a mild spell so we are expecting either a foggy inversion with the storm track well to the north, or possibly a mild storm running well north of Connacht around that time, and then there could be a northerly blast to follow around New Years, followed by a volatile period of strong west to northwest flow.

The January full moon energy peak 8th-10th coming around a time indicated to be turning much colder could be the trigger for the most significant weather event of the winter which could be a stormy period involving some heavy snowfalls. Later on, the new moon period seems more likely to drive the storm track well south towards Iberia. If there is a secondary track closer to Ireland this may become a time for snow or ice storms (20th-24th). There are secondary energy peaks that fall roughly five days before these main lunar energy peaks, which sets up an uneven modulation of five and nine or ten days in the likely pressure oscillation, that could show up in a tendency for one week to be settled, then the next week stormy, as a sort of background rhythm to the winter season. The settled weeks are likely to be also the coldest until February, but then the mildest as the flow becomes more southerly or southwesterly. And it appears from the numerical output that these settled periods will tend to fall around mid-months.

Conclusions and Updates

With this time scale, the details are bound to change to some extent and the main point of adding them to basic trends is to give the reader a sense of the range of weather types to be expected. To some extent, timing these exactly is not really the main point for those who want to plan their business ahead of time -- the more conventional forms of forecasting will lead into the active periods, but this overview may give you some idea what to expect in general and we would stress the menu being more important than the order of service. That might not work for a restaurant but the current "state of the art" in seasonal forecasting is frankly well short of being what we could call a fully developed science, no matter what various gurus say in their press releases. For this forecaster, the stimulus of trying to provide some details has a positive effect on the research, and gives us a foundation that is better than just a vague outlook as was and is the custom with large agency forecasts.

Winter 2011-12 looks like being quite an active winter and not lacking in wintry weather types, although not entirely dominated by them either. Readers in more isolated and upland locations might be well advised to have extra supplies on hand at a fairly early stage of the winter in case the early opportunities for cold dig in, but we think your main challenges will come in January this year. In any case, updates to a long range forecast make even more sense than updates to a shorter time scale and so we don't take a "live or die" approach to this early call, as patterns develop and interact, we may well have an adjusted outlook closer to the actual winter season. Not surprisingly, the outlook for the U.K. will tend to mirror this forecast for Ireland but a separate forecast for the U.K. will become available early next week.

Thanks for sharing this. I really like the sound of a cold January as its been a while since we have had a severe one. Looking forward to the UK update next week.

Edited October 13, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Liam J]

Just come across this on another website (Irish) make of it what you want.

Link is here...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056419308

[joggs]

Sorry for been such a party pooper, but reading through this thred is like having teeth pulled,ie peeps going on about past winters etc

Please could peeps stick to the relevent threads?

MODS delete at will but please give time for peeps to read

And keep it in mind for other threads or in the high noon of winter there could be a dust up

Rant over (from a young 35 year old who feels like 80+ for typing this )

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

^^^^^^^^^^

That looks remarkably similar to Rogers forecast.

Yup Gavin P reads totally like RJ's!!!

[musicman2000]

Yup Gavin P reads totally like RJ's!!!

Thats because it is RJ's forecast or better know as MT on the Irish Boards or even better Peter O Donnell

[sblog]

I don't post a lot on here because a) I don't have knowledge and I don't have or care for the amount of data needed......

However, one thing I have noticed about what WILL happen about this winter is that everyone will assume they are right about their forecast......

How old are you lot?? Get a grip, what will happen, will happen.......Post your forecast and c if it rings true.

If someone doesn't agree - oh big scary bear time.......so what!!! u got your mortgage on your winter forecast? No ,well u aint that confident then.

At the end of the day , winter will be colder than summer - we may have snow / we may not, but how much depends on the mother nature!!!.......Why all the baiting and counter-baiting.....

Why and try to kick each other's arses'- Oh I was more accurate than you......Oh telephone box off - we had snow that's ALL I'm happy about......

OK - rant over.....had a VERY onionse day at work....

Edited October 13, 2011 by Psycho_uk

[sblog]

I don't post a lot on here because a) I don't have knowledge and I don't have or care for the amount of data needed......

However, one thing I have noticed about what WILL happen about this winter is that everyone will assume they are right about their forecast......

How old are you lot?? Get a grip, what will happen, will happen.......Post your forecast and c if it rings true.

If someone doesn't agree - oh big scary bear time.......so what!!! u got your mortgage on your winter forecast? No ,well u aint that confident then.

At the end of the day , winter will be colder than summer - we may have snow / we may not, but how much depends on the mother nature!!!.......Why all the baiting and counter-baiting.....

Why and try to kick each other's arses'- Oh I was more accurate than you......Oh telephone box off - we had snow that's ALL I'm happy about......

OK - rant over.....had a VERY onionse day at work....

Please note that my expletives sounded better than the NetWeather replacements (no offence...)

Edited October 13, 2011 by Psycho_uk

[EML Network]

I've been saying since July that January will be our month for widespread snow potential !!

I disagree about Feb being mild too, I would expect the first half of Feb to continue off where Jan finished.

I would expect Omega blocking to be off kilter in January, therefore we'll likely see more milder incursions with LP feeding in from time to time, as the Omega block moves position, and allows thee altantic in, I believe that the blocking pattern will be more evident in Feb, and stubborn, with some true easterly's setting in, bringing widespread snowfall for the first half of the month, before HP starts to build to the south and it's influence being felt in terms of gradual incrase in temperatures nationwide.

In short IMO Jan is likely to be slit 3 ways..the first week being cold, with snow confined to the Northern half of the UK, a wintery mix at best further south, a mild mid month, and a more widespread cold depth last 3rd.

Feb will remain cold for around 2 weeks with some very cold temperatures up until mid month, before things warm up.

As for December, with HP sitting over the UK for the first half of the month, we'll likely be cold but dry, a colder 2nd half, with a good chance of a true white xmas, before the cold is confined further and further to the north just as we enter Jan.

we could well have a white x-mas and a white new year !!

Edited October 14, 2011 by EML Network