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A Winter's Tale

Winter 2011/2012

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. So post Xmas, winter 2010-11 was a fairly mild winter and a typical winter of the 1988-2008 period. Winter 2010-11 is certainly a case where a relatively mild winter is skewed by a notable early cold spell for less than the first third of the winter.

January wasn't mild though. The only month where mild dominated was February. January was average. You are giving the impression that mild dominated after the 27th December, it didn't, it wasn't until February that it did. You argue that it was a relatively mild winter skewed by a notable cold spell. I could argue that the mild was skewed by the February because the other two months were not mild overall.

What is true to say, is that the severe cold ended on the 27th of December, however there were still more normal cold intervals in the January.

I'm absolutely convinced if that the CET of January was the still 3.7 but there were more snowfalls, there wouldn't be as much complaining about last winter.

And here's an interesting fact, if you take out the 4 mildest days of the winter, the 4 double digit CET means, the winter of 2010-11 would have a CET of 2.8C out of the other 86 days.

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I have started to get that winter buzz now, was watching snow videos last night of last december and would do anything for something like that again.

I reckon this winter will be mixed with some cold spells and some milder interludes, ill put my guess of winter forecast a bit later.

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So post Xmas, winter 2010-11 was a fairly mild winter and a typical winter of the 1988-2008 period. Winter 2010-11 is certainly a case where a relatively mild winter is skewed by a notable early cold spell for less than the first third of the winter.

Post Xmas wasn't fairly mild untill we moved well into February

January was 3.7 it finshed -0.1 under, so Janurary was a cold month even though there wasn't a great deal of snow around.

February was warmer than average in the end it was 6.4 which was 2.6 above normal

March was 6.7 which is 1.0 above normal

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January definately wasn't mild! I think just because it doesn't snow much people don't remember it as a cold month, but in realisitic terms it was freezing most mornings!

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Surprisingly the winter just gone, was cold, but it was so mild in February that the overall CET finished at 4.3C in my location which is just 0.2C below the 1971-00 average for central England?

Anyhow, although overall means for winter were

December: 1.2C (-3.9C)

January: 4.4C (+0.2C)

February: 7.4C (+3.2C)

So whilst December was way below average, winter, at least around here, was just below average (relative to the CET).

Just for interest, in my location also, although December was cold (wasn't the coldest on record here, but the -10.5C we got was), April was significantly warmer than December was cold.

In my location, at 4.87C above average, April wiped the floor with December for deviation of temperature away from average.

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My averages were:

December: 1.4c

January: 5.4c

February: 7.3c

So pretty much in tune with SP1986, December being way below average however February brought the season average right up, hense why people are saying it was a mild winter, however if you look back in detail it really wasn't!

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Slightly off topic with regards to CET etc.. but this chart wouldn't be a bad one if we were in winter

post-7073-0-23728400-1315746153_thumb.gi

Sure, we have a massive displaced Azores High which really isn't going to be good for us if it doesn't move, but what we do have is the first signs of Northern Blocking becoming established, a Western Based NAO (I believe that's what this chart shows with High Pressure near the Eastern Seaboard) isn't the best for us I don't think, but, definitely potential in a chart like this, and definitely good to see signs of Northern Blocking already showing up on the models.

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I do love seeing those charts this time of the year, beginning to look forward to winter now :D

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Posted Yesterday, 15:42

Well I for one sure hope we get a better winter than last year.

By that I am obviously only talking about January and February.

Apart from the first few days of January and a couple at the end

plus the last day of February the 850 -5 isotherm was no where

to be seen over the majority of england and wales apart from a

brief flirtation with kent around the 20-22nd of the month.

The general public that I have come into contact with also agreed

that from the turn of the new year onwards there was no winter

unless you count a little sleet on the 7th of January.

The CET for the 2010/2011 winter is another example to me anyway

of how the CET can skew your idea of how certain seasons panned out.

I would however stick my neck out even this early in the autumn

to say that so long as we do not see the sun ramp up for a prolonged

period of time then a big winter ( severe perhaps) could very well be

on the cards with a very negative NAO and AO towards end of November

through December,January and even well into February.

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Posted Yesterday, 15:42

Well I for one sure hope we get a better winter than last year.

By that I am obviously only talking about January and February.

Apart from the first few days of January and a couple at the end

plus the last day of February the 850 -5 isotherm was no where

to be seen over the majority of england and wales apart from a

brief flirtation with kent around the 20-22nd of the month.

The general public that I have come into contact with also agreed

that from the turn of the new year onwards there was no winter

unless you count a little sleet on the 7th of January.

The CET for the 2010/2011 winter is another example to me anyway

of how the CET can skew your idea of how certain seasons panned out.

I would however stick my neck out even this early in the autumn

to say that so long as we do not see the sun ramp up for a prolonged

period of time then a big winter ( severe perhaps) could very well be

on the cards with a very negative NAO and AO towards end of November

through December,January and even well into February.

You really sticking your neck out with that forecast! Hope it doesn't come back to bite you!

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Wouldnt mind any of these :p

Rrea00120101202.gif

Rrea00120100106.gif

Rrea00120090202.gif

Rrea00119910207.gif

Rrea00219910207.gif

Muahahaha, will do anything for something like these :)

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Wouldnt mind any of these blum.gif

Rrea00120101202.gif

Rrea00120100106.gif

Rrea00120090202.gif

Rrea00119910207.gif

Rrea00219910207.gif

Muahahaha, will do anything for something like these smile.png

That would be very nice indeed Ryan :D

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You really sticking your neck out with that forecast! Hope it doesn't come back to bite you!

Lol yes I know yet I do feel quite confident about this.

As for last winter I think that was only spoilt by the decending

+QBO and not La Nina.

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Post Xmas wasn't fairly mild untill we moved well into February

January was 3.7 it finshed -0.1 under, so Janurary was a cold month even though there wasn't a great deal of snow around.

February was warmer than average in the end it was 6.4 which was 2.6 above normal

March was 6.7 which is 1.0 above normal

A month that is -0.1 or -0.2 under average is only just on the cool side of the seasonal average rather than what you would call a cold month overall.

My point is that, if you take the 1st to 27th December out of the equation for the winter 2010-11 CET, it averages 5.0, and not the 3.1 that it ended up, putting into perspective that winter 2010-11 was only notable for an early freeze up, and the rest of the winter was not special. This 5.0 figure masks an average final four days of December, and a January that was on the cool side of the latest seasonal average and a very mild February. So, after Dec 27th, winter 2010-11 can be seen as a typical winter of the 1988-2008 era.

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Someone needs to tell NEB that December is part of winter. Sometimes you get cold Decembers and mild Februaries. Why don't you take out Feb 1-27 NEB? Or would that not work with your theory?

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The 0.1C below for january is against the 1961-1990 average, against the 1981-2010 average it was 0.7C below average and even more against the 10 year mean. Regardless of what january and february averaged, the typical even larger teapot did not contain 2 below average months.

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A month that is -0.1 or -0.2 under average is only just on the cool side of the seasonal average rather than what you would call a cold month overall.

My point is that, if you take the 1st to 27th December out of the equation for the winter 2010-11 CET, it averages 5.0, and not the 3.1 that it ended up, putting into perspective that winter 2010-11 was only notable for an early freeze up, and the rest of the winter was not special. This 5.0 figure masks an average final four days of December, and a January that was on the cool side of the latest seasonal average and a very mild February. So, after Dec 27th, winter 2010-11 can be seen as a typical winter of the 1988-2008 era.

December 2010 was the most wintry and best spell of winter weather I have experienced in this country in my life. End of.

If December was less of an anomaly a few people probably wouldn't be picking this out and removing this from the CET, it's funny that when the wintry weather gets more 'wintry' a few people start trying to remove it from winter.

Indeed not all of the winter was cold (that's extremely rare anyway - check out the middle of January 1947), but for me the December cold/snow made the winter rather than the February mild breaking it, and after December I was satisfied with what this winter season had delivered given my location. Before this if someone had offered me 10 inches of snow and -14C I'd have bitten their arm off.

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I'd say February wasn't just fairly mild, but very mild, in fact probably up there with some of the most mild Februaries on record.

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Someone needs to tell NEB that December is part of winter. Sometimes you get cold Decembers and mild Februaries. Why don't you take out Feb 1-27 NEB? Or would that not work with your theory?

Another winter that saw a notable cold spell in an otherwise nothing special winter - 1986-87. That winter had a CET of 3.5, but it was only remarkable for the freeze up mid-point, but, the rest of that winter was not special. Take out of the equation the period 7th to 20th January from that winter, and the overall CET for winter 1986-87 would be 4.6, not the 3.5 that it ended up. Many people often quote this winter as being cold overall, when apart from the two week freeze up mid-point, it wasn't cold overall.

Winter 2010-11 is a bit like 1986-87 in that it had a notable cold spell in an otherwise nothing special winter - the difference is that 1986-87 had its freeze up in the middle of an otherwise average to mild winter - whereas 2010-11 had its notable cold spell at the start only for the rest of the winter to deteriorate into nothing.

December 2010 was the most wintry and best spell of winter weather I have experienced in this country in my life. End of.

If December was less of an anomaly a few people probably wouldn't be picking this out and removing this from the CET, it's funny that when the wintry weather gets more 'wintry' a few people start trying to remove it from winter.

Indeed not all of the winter was cold (that's extremely rare anyway - check out the middle of January 1947), but for me the December cold/snow made the winter rather than the February mild breaking it, and after December I was satisfied with what this winter season had delivered given my location. Before this if someone had offered me 10 inches of snow and -14C I'd have bitten their arm off.

It felt as though to me in winter 2010-11, calendar month wise we may have had a January / February, but after New Year I felt as though we had slipped from December to March and not had a Jan or Feb. To think that winter ends before Xmas is hardly out of the way is just beyond me when there is another two months of winter / or nothingness, to get through before spring supposedly should arrive.

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That's a rather dubious comparison, as the January 1987 spell only lasted during the middle third of the month, with most of the snowfalls concentrated during the period 11th-14th. The November/December 2010 spell had two prolonged cold and, for many, snowy outbreaks- 25th November to 8th December and then 16th to 26th December.

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December 2010 was the most wintry and best spell of winter weather I have experienced in this country in my life. End of.

If December was less of an anomaly a few people probably wouldn't be picking this out and removing this from the CET, it's funny that when the wintry weather gets more 'wintry' a few people start trying to remove it from winter.

Indeed not all of the winter was cold (that's extremely rare anyway - check out the middle of January 1947), but for me the December cold/snow made the winter rather than the February mild breaking it, and after December I was satisfied with what this winter season had delivered given my location. Before this if someone had offered me 10 inches of snow and -14C I'd have bitten their arm off.

Winter 1946-47 may have had a mild spell around mid-Jan 1947, but although Feb 1947 was so exceptionally cold both Dec 1946 and Jan 1947 were still 1*C or more below average.

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In addition, I remember NEB favourably comparing the winter of 1890/91 with 2010/11. It's true that it was colder for longer, but December 1890 would have disappointed a lot of people, as large periods of that month were dry and exceptionally dull.

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but after New Year I felt as though we had slipped from December to March and not had a Jan or Feb.

If you thought January 2011 felt like a March, you must be living in cloud cuckoo land. January 2011 was colder than a lot of the Januarys since 1988, it never felt like a March in a million years.

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That's a rather dubious comparison, as the January 1987 spell only lasted during the middle third of the month, with most of the snowfalls concentrated during the period 11th-14th. The November/December 2010 spell had two prolonged cold and, for many, snowy outbreaks- 25th November to 8th December and then 16th to 26th December.

What I am talking about is winters that had notable cold spells in otherwise average to mild winters - whereby removing a relatively small part of the winter (less than a month) from the equation a substantial amount is added to the CET. In 1986-87 taking 14 days away adds 1.1 to the winter CET. Taking 27 days away from 2010-11 adds 1.9 to the CET.

This differentiates from winters that were cold overall - a large part of the winter being cold, and cold spells also spread through the winter. 2009-10 was certainly a cold winter overall; it only was mild for the first ten days of December and only became average for a time in the second half of January and in the final few days of February. 1995-96 was cold for a large part of the winter and the only mild spell was in the first 20 days of Jan and it only became average towards the last week of Feb.

In addition, I remember NEB favourably comparing the winter of 1890/91 with 2010/11. It's true that it was colder for longer, but December 1890 would have disappointed a lot of people, as large periods of that month were dry and exceptionally dull.

Winter 1890-91 would certainly have been a big improvement on the pear shaped 2010-11 winter. Dec 1890 was the coldest December ever, but it stayed very cold through much of Jan 1891 and Feb 1891 only returned to about average, and then the cold returned in March / April and gave a particularly cold spring - 1890-91 is certainly far removed from 2010-11 when December's cold dissappeared abruptly and never returned for the rest of the winter.

If you thought January 2011 felt like a March, you must be living in cloud cuckoo land. January 2011 was colder than a lot of the Januarys since 1988, it never felt like a March in a million years.

February 2011 was fairly typical of a March even of today's standards, and it certainly felt far from what a February should be like.

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