Winter 2011/2012

[Kiwi]

No need for that arrogance either thanks, if you based it on facts not assumptions then I would have taken it.

Calm down dear .....one of you is based in the NE of England and the other in the SW

...perhaps thats the reason you have different recollections of last winter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my preferred time for cold and snow is from 20th Nov to 13th Jan, or near enough, means that run up to Xmas is snowy, if snow falls then, less will thaw due to the low sun

similar to last year really snow was from 27th Nov to 7th Jan, makes Xmas and new year period feel miles better

[cooling climate]

Following on from my initial winter prediction on September the 11, my

opinion is the same in fact I am slightly more confident than I was in

September that a big winter awaits us.

Brewer dobson circulation seem to be quite active with ozone charts

showing good penertration in the Arctic

The Most Recent Full-Day Total Ozone Map for the Northern Hemisphere:

Click on the map to see it at higher resolution and with individual station observations.

There has also been some warming at the 30 hpa level over the pole courtesy of

some tropical air engaging the polar westerlies(+mountain torque events).

I believe this will continue as we head into November and December.

There will I think be a decent cold spell in the second half of November

with a break before the next cold wave in December. It is then that I

think the cold could really take hold with some bitting cold during January

and February.

The November and December cold spells will probably be more northerly

orientated while January and February cold will come from the east and

northeast.

Another update in November.

Edited October 12, 2011 by cooling climate

[damianslaw]

I tend to believe winter never truly gets going until around christmas, with Jan and Feb the proper winter months and quite often March in the north packs a greater punch than Dec. However, the last three years have seen wintry weather set in much earlier than on average with December seeing notable cold snowy weather.

March has been very dissapointing for snow and cold and November in recent years has packed a bigger punch than March.

On a personal note the optimum time for a cold snowy spell to set in is around the middle of december lasting through to the New Year - for this reason 2009/2010 was wonderful with the cold never really waning until well into March - it was a great winter far superior to last year, which stopped dead in its tracks after the second week of Jan.

I always think of snow occuring in Nov and the first half of december as a bonus, I can remember many many a year when all we had during this period was rain and wind, years like 1997, 2006, 2007 spring to mind.

[wimblettben]

Calm down dear .....one of you is based in the NE of England and the other in the SW

...perhaps thats the reason you have different recollections of last winter

Good post!

We have to remember here guys that the weather can be very different sometimes from one place to another. And not just in terms of day's.

[Isolated Frost]

Yes - it was a very UNsnowy month in NE England was Jan 2011 - and it was about average, i'm sure the south had a below average/average jan, well the cet value was about average i think.

It was generally the fact he said this ''I thought winter was from November to March? The last few years have only seen proper cold in November and December. Jan to March have always been mild with the odd cold few days. I would prefer the severe cold to start just after xmas through to the end of Feb.''

Which is just not true. January 2011 was not mild. January 2010 was cold. So was February 2010. And November 2009 was very mild. I'm sure this is the case in Bristol aswell? If you can prove me wrong i'm happy for you to do so.

[19jacobob93]

I tend to believe winter never truly gets going until around christmas, with Jan and Feb the proper winter months and quite often March in the north packs a greater punch than Dec. However, the last three years have seen wintry weather set in much earlier than on average with December seeing notable cold snowy weather.

March has been very dissapointing for snow and cold and November in recent years has packed a bigger punch than March.

On a personal note the optimum time for a cold snowy spell to set in is around the middle of december lasting through to the New Year - for this reason 2009/2010 was wonderful with the cold never really waning until well into March - it was a great winter far superior to last year, which stopped dead in its tracks after the second week of Jan.

I always think of snow occuring in Nov and the first half of december as a bonus, I can remember many many a year when all we had during this period was rain and wind, years like 1997, 2006, 2007 spring to mind.

In these past few years I've noticed a complete shift in the seasons, with all 4 seasons coming 2-3 months earlier than in previous years. The only exception being the warm spell we had a few weeks ago. My personal opinion is that it's caused by a shift in pressure patterns due to low solar activity but I could be wrong!

[weathe20]

Yes - it was a very UNsnowy month in NE England was Jan 2011 - and it was about average, i'm sure the south had a below average/average jan, well the cet value was about average i think.

It was generally the fact he said this ''I thought winter was from November to March? The last few years have only seen proper cold in November and December. Jan to March have always been mild with the odd cold few days. I would prefer the severe cold to start just after xmas through to the end of Feb.''

Which is just not true. January 2011 was not mild. January 2010 was cold. So was February 2010. And November 2009 was very mild. I'm sure this is the case in Bristol aswell? If you can prove me wrong i'm happy for you to do so.

As previously mentioned...chill out. A clear different perspective of winter from different locations in the UK. Depends what you call cold...?

If it was say 5-6 degrees all month to me thats cold. But is that good for snow? No. When I talk about cold I mean day time temps around 0 or just below. That just didnt occur IMBY last Jan or Feb this year.

I remember the thaw from boxing day onwards..its on the charts. Didnt have day time temps at 0 or below freezing again.

Edited October 12, 2011 by weathe20

[MP-R]

Good post!

We have to remember here guys that the weather can be very different sometimes from one place to another. And not just in terms of day's.

I'm also from Yatton. It certainly wasn't mild after the snow disappeared with maxima never really superceding 6C at any point apart from the 16th and 22nd. In that respect it was great for cold just not brilliant for snow. We missed the snow at the end of the month, got the showers from the easterly in the first half of February but they didn't settle. There was 1cm on the 18th of February that was gone the following day and 3 more marginal snowfalls occurred before milder weather set in at the end of the month into March.

I still respect 2009-2010 much more than 2010-2011. At least November was stormy and Atlantic-driven and FELT like autumn unlike last year.

[Guest]

Going a long way back, probably so much so that my memory is defective, and apart from Nov/Dec 2010, I can never recall very much in the way of snow prior to Christmas in mostly SE and East England - occasionally there have been one or two short lived episodes but the coldest episodes, except 2011 have been reserved for Jan/Feb sometimes with a prolonged spell of ice days.

By March with the lengthening days I then start to get anxious for a return of the warmer weather but in the last 50 years I feel sure that there have been more white Easters than white Christmasses.

[Daniel Miller]

Disappointing! An average if not mild winter overall At least there's still time for change!

It doesn't say that at all! It's cold weather for Nov. and Dec. The mild is said to be January, but with the caution that confidence is low at that time period. Chin up!

Surprisingly, even though we had a lot of snow last year, 17th December (12" where I live, something that wasn't predicted by any major weather..people), my favourite winter of my short life was January 2010, because even though the snow was less, it seemed to last longer, around 2 weeks if I remember correctly. That season also brought a couple of inches in December aswell.

I hope we get some Nov. - February cold/snow as my Dad keeps going on about 63, boasting almost and I feel a little sad haa

Edited October 12, 2011 by Daniel Miller

[Rollo]

It doesn't say that at all! It's cold weather for Nov. and Dec. The mild is said to be January, but with the caution that confidence is low at that time period. Chin up!

Surprisingly, even though we had a lot of snow last year, 17th December (12" where I live, something that wasn't predicted by any major weather..people), my favourite winter of my short life was January 2010, because even though the snow was less, it seemed to last longer, around 2 weeks if I remember correctly. That season also brought a couple of inches in December aswell.

I hope we get some Nov. - February cold/snow as my Dad keeps going on about 63, boasting almost and I feel a little sad haa

My recollections of February 63' are of less snow than January but of cold throughout the month and if you are interested I can locate the DWR reports I used to get from the Met Office and let you have sight of them as we do not live so far away from each other.

Sorry this post was meant for Isolated Frost.

[asjmcguire]

Can you explain the charts ? Are they actual Dams each day or some form of 'predicted v actual'

Neither - they are simply the forecast.

It is up to whoever is using them to see if they pan out.

Basically everyday I load the CFS from Netweather and for every day that the forecast dam over SE Scotland is 528 or lower I increment the value recorded in the spreadsheet by1 for that day. I have multiple columns for 528, 522, 516 etc etc

In this way - the charts begin to show trends as more and more runs are recorded - the CFS has been fairly consistent over the last 30 (days) runs that there will be a 2 week period towards the end of Jan, beginning of Feb where there will be at least 528dam over the UK and in many cases - much lower values down to 516 - I would class that as a trend - there are a few runs with 510dam but they aren't appearing often so I wouldn't get excited about them yet.

[Aaron]

I thought winter was from November to March? The last few years have only seen proper cold in November and December. Jan to March have always been mild with the odd cold few days. I would prefer the severe cold to start just after xmas through to the end of Feb.

No they haven't. January 2010 and February 2010 were colder than December 2009, with November 2009 being very mild and wet.

Since when was any November in the past 10 years cold except 2010? And what winter in the past 10 years had a very cold December, colder than January and February, except December 2010?

As far as I know, absolutely none. Sorry to sound abrupt but please don't say things if you're not 100% sure.

For the record January 2011 was not mild, just pretty snowless in the south because it was a fairly dry month..

Edited October 13, 2011 by Aaron

[summer blizzard]

No they haven't. January 2010 and February 2010 were colder than December 2009, with November 2009 being very mild and wet.

Since when was any November in the past 10 years cold except 2010? And what winter in the past 10 years had a very cold December, colder than January and February, except December 2010?

As far as I know, absolutely none. Sorry to sound abrupt but please don't say things if you're not 100% sure.

For the record January 2011 was not mild, just pretty snowless in the south because it was a fairly dry month..

2005 - second half was the 3rd coldest in past 50 years (now 4th because of of 2010) with a CET of 1.6C. Working at Birstall retail park as a trolley pusher i can confirm that it was extremely cold. Benson got down to about -10C.

I am all for snow but i must say that i would love a spectacular inversion high like November 2005, sunniest on record as well.

Edited October 13, 2011 by summer blizzard

[Aaron]

Really? I can honestly say I don't recall November 2005 being cold.

[summer blizzard]

Really? I can honestly say I don't recall November 2005 being cold.

Shocking!

The first 12 days were very mild however we got a northerly which rather than toppling sunk south so that high pressure was bang over the UK and as a result minima in particular crashed (some places had their first ice days that decade). A round the 25th we got the major northerly which produced snow in most places but south west England was hit badly due to showers and motorways were closed, Here it was notable because it was 14C at 08:00 as the warm sector had moved through but by 13:00 the cold front had moved through and it was 2C.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...05_review.shtml - Decent description

Edited October 13, 2011 by summer blizzard

[Aaron]

Ah I remember the snow in the south-west in November 2005, it was pretty bad down there. Not sure why I don't remember it being cold though!

[ZONE 51]

my first post of the season. I for one am hoping for a lot of snow... hopefully beating the last 3 winters....

I'm calling for first snowfall in November. Major disruptive snow in December, a brief 'mild' spell in January, and another thames streamer (Feb 2009) event in February dumping 12" of snow all over South East England.

oh bring it on! distruption level 100%-a problem.. excitement level 100%-no probs!!

we had got blocked off in Surrey with 16-18inces level!!

anyway i agree with the mini forecast

Edited October 13, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

my first post of the season. I for one am hoping for a lot of snow... hopefully beating the last 3 winters....

I'm calling for first snowfall in November. Major disruptive snow in December, a brief 'mild' spell in January, and another thames streamer (Feb 2009) event in February dumping 12" of snow all over South East England.

Hmm it would be great if everywhere else could have shared the fun in February 2009, it was pretty crap up here!

[ZONE 51]

In these past few years I've noticed a complete shift in the seasons, with all 4 seasons coming 2-3 months earlier than in previous years. The only exception being the warm spell we had a few weeks ago. My personal opinion is that it's caused by a shift in pressure patterns due to low solar activity but I could be wrong!

All so the jet stream patterns. i do myself see a shift in seasonal weather patterns, something is going on! here in the south its still very mild even warm and its mid october, so we wonder what iceage-but its not as simple as that!, but what we are looking at is the higher risk of widespread real winter weather early and more chance of potent cold when it does come, my line is"the cold will be colder" now that may sound strange to some but think about the december extremes last year, where did that come from! are we meant to experience that type of cold? very rare it is but then january 2010 was rare to so then if a third comes this year then that would be remarkable to say the least, we cant get another severe month like december or january as cold and widespread because its rare? not so rare now as we are in a cold phase a pattern that will evolve once again this year and into next, the jet stream going for a long holiday south taking with it rains to the far south, while we pull in more snow and cold weather than we can be used to in a normal season, cant give it the go flag just yet but i would say a very high chance of the same setups as last year, the signals are rolling out and they indicate this, we cant say extreme cold right now because these things come from nowhere, they build up and bottle up then we hit the right setup and its like blowing a strong cork from a wine bottle releasing the severe cold air towards our shores. Edited October 13, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[weathe20]

No they haven't. January 2010 and February 2010 were colder than December 2009, with November 2009 being very mild and wet.

Since when was any November in the past 10 years cold except 2010? And what winter in the past 10 years had a very cold December, colder than January and February, except December 2010?

As far as I know, absolutely none. Sorry to sound abrupt but please don't say things if you're not 100% sure.

For the record January 2011 was not mild, just pretty snowless in the south because it was a fairly dry month..

I said 'the last few years' didnt mention any Novembers before that. READ the posts correctly so you get your reply 100% right.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ah I remember the snow in the south-west in November 2005, it was pretty bad down there. Not sure why I don't remember it being cold though!

Probably because it didn't turn cold until the 25th. This is the chart/set up that brought the arctic blast, the HP to the west 'toppled' 5 days later ending it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120051125.gif

BFTP

[Methuselah]

By all means, guys, discuss your thoughts for the upcoming winter. But, please, refrain from bickering about past winter months??

[johnholmes]

By all means, guys, discuss your thoughts for the upcoming winter. But, please, refrain from bickering about past winter months??

here here Pete

a couple seem intent on doing what some in the model thread do at times.

Data for the CET area, a fairly reliable indicator even for parts of England not within it is easily obtained via Google?

Edited October 13, 2011 by johnholmes