Winter 2011/2012

[19jacobob93]

http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

wow! at netweathers long range forecast! (sorry if you wanted to make a new thread or whatever on this netweather LOL)

looking very good for November/ December!!!

Disappointing! An average if not mild winter overall At least there's still time for change!

[asjmcguire]

That's really useful Andy, thanks for sharing that! I take it by "Uk" you mean it could just be that the 528 dam hits northern Scotland?

Yeah - it's very IMBY - if the 528 or lower appears over the Eastern Scottish Borders I add 1 to the current value of the cell

In general going by the CFS the WHOLE of the UK being covered by the 528 or lower is about 1/3 less than indicated on the chart.

(Though in the noted 2 week Jan/Feb period - that does indeed cover the whole of the UK)

EDIT: There are now links to the raw CSV files on the page if you want to play with the data yourself

Edited October 12, 2011 by Andrew Simon Jones

[Andy_]

Disappointing! An average if not mild winter overall At least there's still time for change!

you kidding?! mentioning northern blocking for 2 consecutive months is enough for me like, you can't get the temperatures right at this stage.

[jcw]

Met Office responds to the media reports saying there's no need for alarm.

Link: http://www.metoffice...e-times-opinion

I would slightly disagree with this statement regarding last Winter's forecasts; "In fact, our forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none".

Mmm, you didn't predict the deluge of snow on the 17th-18th Dec across NW England amongst other events, especially the 20-25cm that fell in Merseyside, anymore than a couple of hours in advance. I know it's very difficult to forecast snow but a line needs to be drawn.

Well unless someone else DID more accurately forecast that event with the specifics you noted then you could still say their "forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none!??"

Joe

[Costa Del Fal]

I would slightly disagree with this statement regarding last Winter's forecasts; "In fact, our forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none".

I hate the way they try to boast like that. 18th December 2010 was utter chaos here with a huge amount of snowfall in a quite short amount of time. I really thought we needed a local Emergency warning here. Of course we didnt get one however some in the SE which had the same conditions as we did here had one. But the same applies to other warnings at times. But quite often after big events the Met Office will post an article on how well they did with a cross or tick for what they got wrong or right. Of course nearly all of it is ticks with perhaps the odd cross to make it look like everyone makes mistakes.

However, no doubt the Met Office has a tough job and I have much respect for what they do but in many situations its the need to try and constantly say "were awesome" that nags me!

Edited October 12, 2011 by Blizzards

[Wales123098]

Met Office responds to the media reports saying there's no need for alarm.

Link: http://www.metoffice...e-times-opinion

I would slightly disagree with this statement regarding last Winter's forecasts; "In fact, our forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none".

Mmm, you didn't predict the deluge of snow on the 17th-18th Dec across NW England amongst other events, especially the 20-25cm that fell in Merseyside, anymore than a couple of hours in advance. I know it's very difficult to forecast snow but a line needs to be drawn.

They said on November 26th (I think it was that date) that snow in Wales would be restricted to the north and west coasts so everyone in the Cardiff area went to school, work as normal to come home in rush hour with 4-5inches of snow falling and catching everyone out including my self. A few times the BBC Wales weather forecaster has had to apologise for not getting snow right in Wales based on the MetOffice.. They also failed to get right the 14inches of snow that fell from a streamer over the Welsh Valleys and the 8-12 inches of snow that fell over Cardiff in mid December again saying it would stay out west.

Edited October 12, 2011 by Wales123098

[19jacobob93]

you kidding?! mentioning northern blocking for 2 consecutive months is enough for me like, you can't get the temperatures right at this stage.

Well if the northern blocking occurs then fantastic! But if their predicted temperatures were to occur it would be a bit dreary! I think the forecast is a bit contradictory because the the maps show temperatures around or just below average for November and December yet the description forecasts northern blocking in both months, and we know that would cause temperatures well below average for the month overall as we've seen in previous years.

Like you say, it's still early days and things should start to become clear as we move closer

[karyo]

It can be underwhelming if you get over December and then expect the rest of the winter to be mild. However, if we are going to have a cold winter month then December is the best due to the short days!

Let's hope this time we will get at least some short wintry spells in Jan and Feb to spice things up.

Karyo

[summer blizzard]

I have to admit, that is clever !

I notice that his obsession about the gulf stream has subsided. That is one good thing, because based on what I read from other sources he was getting close to telling porkies.

I just hope he doesn't run away from his blog like he did at the start of the year, when the warm spring weather took him by surprise.

I wish him well, but now that he has become, dare I say 'notorious', he owes the public a proper explanation if his winter forecast goes pear shaped. People are actually spending a bit of money preparing for the worst, individuals, councils and businesses.

Councils are in no way stocking up because of anything he says. They get told from the government who in turn get told by the Met Office.

As for individuals and businesses, that is frankly their fault. If they were to actually research the matter they would likely realize that there are some sensationalist claims.

Edited October 12, 2011 by summer blizzard

[Eugene]

. However, if we are going to have a cold winter month then December is the best due to the short days!

I disagree, February is the best winter month to have the coldest month of the winter when airmasses are at their coldest and SST's around us almost their coldest, also there is more daylight to enjoy the cold and snow, it's about time we got a really severe cold spell in February to show kids how cold it really can get then instead of them thinking its a spring month.

[stewfox]

I have been quite interested in how useful the CFS model really is - so I have been running a spreadsheet that I use to record when the dam lines are over the UK. I thought it would make it easier to pick out trends. I will be interested over the winter to see if any of it's predictions pay off.

The only consistent thing the CFS is saying is a 2 week period around end of Jan, beginning of Feb with the 528dam over us, but some runs also feature the 522 down to the 510dam.

I have been maintaining the page here:

http://www.borderswe...wxdamcharts.php - please feel free to use or not as you please

Can you explain the charts ? Are they actual Dams each day or some form of 'predicted v actual'

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I disagree, February is the best winter month to have the coldest month of the winter when airmasses are at their coldest and SST's around us almost their coldest, also there is more daylight to enjoy the cold and snow, it's about time we got a really severe cold spell in February to show kids how cold it really can get then instead of them thinking its a spring month.

I quite agree with your statement. I can't remember the last time February was actually cold. It seems to be always on the mild side. Having said that there is little snow melt in December because of the limited daylight hours and weak sun. This was one of the reasons the snow lasted so long on nearly every surface last December

Edited October 12, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Isolated Frost]

I much prefer snow in the run-up to christmas. I love the festivity, and the snow adds so much to it. Snow after new years may be more prominent, but it's just a bonus to me. Nov/Dec snow is what I love most.

[msx999]

my first post of the season. I for one am hoping for a lot of snow... hopefully beating the last 3 winters....

I'm calling for first snowfall in November. Major disruptive snow in December, a brief 'mild' spell in January, and another thames streamer (Feb 2009) event in February dumping 12" of snow all over South East England.

[Robbie Garrett]

So long as we get this again, I don't care....

Welcome to London Snowick - 24 inches of snow, 1,400 flights cancelled.

Edited October 12, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[sblog]

Councils are in no way stocking up because of anything he says. They get told from the government who in turn get told by the Met Office.

Which is probably why they never have enough grit for the roads.....

So long as we get this again, I don't care....

That's Gatwick isn't it....???

[weathe20]

I thought winter was from November to March? The last few years have only seen proper cold in November and December. Jan to March have always been mild with the odd cold few days. I would prefer the severe cold to start just after xmas through to the end of Feb.

[Robbie Garrett]

Which is probably why they never have enough grit for the roads.....

That's Gatwick isn't it....???

Yes If I remember correctly, it was the worst hit place in the UK. It was snowing for 24hours there, whilst is was snowing zilch in Central London.

[Isolated Frost]

I thought winter was from November to March? The last few years have only seen proper cold in November and December. Jan to March have always been mild with the odd cold few days. I would prefer the severe cold to start just after xmas through to the end of Feb.

What?! January 2010? One of the coldest Januaries since god knows when. February 2010 - another very below average month. November 2009 very mild.

[weathe20]

What?! January 2010? One of the coldest Januaries since god knows when. February 2010 - another very below average month. November 2009 very mild.

What the whole of Jan? Dont think so. Heaviest snow in my location Jan 6th. From maximum mid Jan to March average.

And this jan?? The thaw began boxing day 2010 onwards in the south, then on nothing to report regarding very cold. Think Im right.

Edited October 12, 2011 by weathe20

[Eugene]

Don't get me wrong i love snow just before Christmas running into new years like everyone else and cold ish/dry seasonal weather also, i just would like to see a really severe February that could record a mean CET of below 0C or just above, last time was 1986 and looking back at the records since the 1600's we get one below 0C or just above every 50 years or so, hopefully in the next 25 years in our lifetimes we might see one, you never know could be in the years ahead.

Just to show you how cold it can get in the UK in February read this,

The record February low, and equal all-time record low (along with 1982 and 1995) temperature of -27.2C was set on the 11th at Braemar

This was February 11th 1895, the other two times were much earlier dates than mid February.

[Summer Sun]

I thought winter was from November to March?

The Met Office take it by 3 months so,

September 1st to November 30th - Autumn

December 1st to February 29th - Winter

And so on.

[Isolated Frost]

What the whole of Jan? Dont think so. Heaviest snow in my location Jan 6th. From maximum mid Jan to March average.

And this jan?? The thaw began boxing day 2010 onwards in the south, then on nothing to report regarding very cold. Think Im right.

January 2010 was very cold.

February 2010 was cold.

January 2011 was average-cold. Frosty indeed.

No need for that arrogance either thanks, if you based it on facts not assumptions then I would have taken it.

[cheeky_monkey]

I disagree with both Feb and Dec..January delivers colder snowier weather than both Feb and Dec..you just havent had a stonking good January since 1979.

[Geordiesnow]

I disagree, February is the best winter month to have the coldest month of the winter when airmasses are at their coldest and SST's around us almost their coldest, also there is more daylight to enjoy the cold and snow, it's about time we got a really severe cold spell in February to show kids how cold it really can get then instead of them thinking its a spring month.

We did have a cold spell in February 2005 and it was impressive for how long it lasted but the dissapointing thing was the temperatures because the continent just did not have the severe cold and the juicy set ups that was on offer was the best you will ever see in recent years but unfortunately the cold never lived up to such expecation hence it seems to be a forgotten spell of cold weather.

I can remember days of convective snow showers but I think the uppers were marginal at times and there were times where sleet/wet snow was recorded, can't remember the specifics unfortunately though.