Winter 2011/2012

[summer blizzard]

I may have to change my predictions if the QBO weakens in monthly values as is a possibility at the moment however i am reasonably confident that we will have another cold winter overall. The MEI and QBO should support a cooler than average December and January with a strengthened signal for -AO conditions from the PDO, however i do expect the -AO to wane in late winter and thus i expect February to feature a mean area of high pressure pretty much bang on top, so very dry. Looking ahead to spring and i think that the chances of a cool spring are fairly high.

Edited October 11, 2011 by summer blizzard

[UV-RAY]

"However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 month"

Why is there the automatic assumption that "positive" means colder, snowier etc? Not everybody likes colder than normal winters.

And crewecold your forecast looks like a direct copy of winter 2010-2011.

"However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 month"

Why is there the automatic assumption that "positive" means colder, snowier etc? Not everybody likes colder than normal winters.

And crewecold your forecast looks like a direct copy of winter 2010-2011.

Solar output remains very low compared to previous cycles, just because your hoping for mild doesn't mean it will be, and vice versa of course.

[stewfox]

"However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 month"

Why is there the automatic assumption that "positive" means colder, snowier etc? Not everybody likes colder than normal winters.

And crewecold your forecast looks like a direct copy of winter 2010-2011.

Nothing worse then someone 'knocking' a forcast wether its based on tea leaf patterns or a scientific method. Most on here can see the difference.

However both take time and effort from the poster.

[Snowmad79]

There is no 'automatic assumption' at all, why did you 'automatically assume' it was an automatic assumption? I have merely listed a list of factors which I have taken into account when producing the forecast. I wrote it in one particular viewpoint......my viewpoint; sorry for any offence caused. Rather than knocking people who take the time to produce such forecasts, why don't you spend time producing one yourself

Oh and I didn't even consider last winter when producing the forecast- it has next to no bearing on how this winter will pan out; just because my forecast looks similar to how last winter panned out it doesn't mean that this winter is forbidden from turning out that way.

If I'd have made my september blog re winter into a full and descriptive forcast, it would most definitely have been a copy of your forcast, which I personally think is bang on the money mate! Great forcast , regardless of what other peoples opinions are

[damianslaw]

I have absolutely no idea how this winter may pan out - many forecasts are suggesting competing factors at play, some very positive in terms of cold and snow, and some negative in terms of mild and rain - depending on how you look at things. I remember last year we had very similiar competing factors. It has been an unusual year it has to be said with record warmth in April and late sept/early oct coming on the back of almost record cold in December and the extraordinary spell of weather in late November.

The Atlantic continues to behave in a rather weak ineffective state - even now we have wavering weather fronts slow to move and sluggish with no pronounced warm/cold sectors - this has been a theme of the past couple of winters, and there are no signals of this changing. I still believe the single biggest factor that influences our weather is the NAO signal, in recent winters we have seen it remain in a locked same state for long periods of time - if it goes into negative gear during November and continues to follow a similiar journey then expect another blocked winter with weak atlantic, but this isn't a guarantee of cold weather, everything then will depend on where heights set up shop.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Solar output remains very low compared to previous cycles, just because your hoping for mild doesn't mean it will be, and vice versa of course.

Yes compared to other cycles, but solar activity this year is high compared to the last 3-4 years, so it will be fascinating to see - after the event - if the relationship does hold on an annual - rather than 11/22 year cycle - basis. I'm neither a snow-lover (awaits incoming missiles) or a mild-ramper; I just want to see if the theory plays out!

Edited October 11, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[Met4Cast]

Yes compared to other cycles, but solar activity this year is high compared to the last 3-4 years, so it will be fascinating to see - after the event - if the relationship does hold on an annual - rather than 11/22 year cycle - basis. I'm neither a snow-lover (awaits incoming missiles) or a mild-ramper; I just want to see if the theory plays out!

I'm interested too - By logic, if the last few winters were caused by the lower solar activity, this years winter should be less cold, though still colder than what we had become accustomed to pre: 2008.

[wimblettben]

I consider myself to be an all rounder in terms of the weather as I find most of what it can bring interesting.

If I had to pick which weather type I would have to live for during the rest of my life though then it would definately be Atlantic storms!

So although I find snow and cold weather interesting, at the end of the day I would much rather be having gales in my back garden or thunderstorms.

[Geordiesnow]

You're not gonna go through a whole season without seeing winds veering to the North or East at least once.

Winter 1988/89

I never recalled any NE'lies or any real Northerlies, there were some brief cooler NW'lies but this got quickly swept out of the way by mild SW'lies as the PV was dominant throughout the winter. The only real widespread fun and games looks like it came during mid February where the North Atlantic was so cold that uppers of -5 or more covered more or less the whole UK but again this did not last too long. Infact I never seen any ridges into Greenland, northern blocking was non existant and its basically a winter people will call it an infamous one for all the wrong reasons - thankfully I wasnt even born when that winter occured! It would be interesting how the Arctic Sea Ice will fare if we did experienced a winter like that again though, it was the perfect conditions for widespread sea ice by the looks of it unlike in previous winters thanks to the extensive blocking.

[19jacobob93]

Yes compared to other cycles, but solar activity this year is high compared to the last 3-4 years, so it will be fascinating to see - after the event - if the relationship does hold on an annual - rather than 11/22 year cycle - basis. I'm neither a snow-lover (awaits incoming missiles) or a mild-ramper; I just want to see if the theory plays out!

Bare in mind that low solar activity usually has a 2-3 year lag effect. No matter how high solar activity picks up in the next few months, I definitely wouldn't rule out the possibility of a cold winter caused by the effects of low solar activity, and I wouldn't be surprised if we got another cold winter next year!

[Isolated Frost]

Winter 1988/89

I never recalled any NE'lies or any real Northerlies, there were some brief cooler NW'lies but this got quickly swept out of the way by mild SW'lies as the PV was dominant throughout the winter. The only real widespread fun and games looks like it came during mid February where the North Atlantic was so cold that uppers of -5 or more covered more or less the whole UK but again this did not last too long. Infact I never seen any ridges into Greenland, northern blocking was non existant and its basically a winter people will call it an infamous one for all the wrong reasons - thankfully I wasnt even born when that winter occured! It would be interesting how the Arctic Sea Ice will fare if we did experienced a winter like that again though, it was the perfect conditions for widespread sea ice by the looks of it unlike in previous winters thanks to the extensive blocking.

Other warm winters up here in the NE were 74/75, 97/98 and 06/07. I wonder if they were as snowless as 88/89.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Bare in mind that low solar activity usually has a 2-3 year lag effect. No matter how high solar activity picks up in the next few months, I definitely wouldn't rule out the possibility of a cold winter caused by the effects of low solar activity, and I wouldn't be surprised if we got another cold winter next year!

I'm ruling nothing in or out and will bear what you say in mind. There's so much conflicting information out there; which source does the 2-3 year lag come from?

[19jacobob93]

I'm ruling nothing in or out and will bear what you say in mind. There's so much conflicting information out there; which source does the 2-3 year lag come from?

Yep you're right, I don't know who to trust either so I'm not really bothered what any sources say!

As for the 2-3 year lag time, my evidence comes from comparisons between CET and SS numbers which I think the comparisons were dated back to the 18th century. Obviously CET only covers a relatively small area but it still gives us a good idea of how it effects our neck of the woods! I'll try find it so bear with me!

[19jacobob93]

Here's one from a BBC article, it's not as detailed, nor is it as clear as the other one but it should do for now!

The lag time is only really visible in more previous years in this one. There's obviously some huge anomalies in there, but keep in mind that low solar activity mainly effects winter temperatures due to the positioning of the jet stream.

[Geordiesnow]

Other warm winters up here in the NE were 74/75, 97/98 and 06/07. I wonder if they were as snowless as 88/89.

The first 2 I can't remember but the latter one was quite a mild one I seem to recall, it was actually my first winter on NW so it certainly wasnt a very good start thats for sure! I don't think it was snowless though but snow was a rarity around these parts TWS will probably have all the facts and figures for us though!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I see James Madden has updated his blog which I am sure will be of interest to many of you (or not as the case may be!!! ) . Only time will tell as to whether his predictions will come off!

I for one am really looking forward to seeing the winter forecasts come from many of the well respected members of this forum.

Off to the Lakes next week so if anyone you could give me a heads up on it being -20 with white out conditions that would be appreciated!

[Coast]

Popped into ASDA yesterday and they had a huge pile of snow shovels and sledges in the entrance with a blow up of that Daily Express front page about more 'Mini Ice Ages' on the way!

http://www.express.c...sts/view/276516

I do wonder about their marketing - or is it just the gullibility of the public?

[Styx]

Popped into ASDA yesterday and they had a huge pile of snow shovels and sledges in the entrance with a blow up of that Daily Express front page about more 'Mini Ice Ages' on the way!

http://www.express.c...sts/view/276516

I do wonder about their marketing - or is it just the gullibility of the public?

I have to admit, that is clever !

I see James Madden has updated his blog which I am sure will be of interest to many of you (or not as the case may be!!! ) . Only time will tell as to whether his predictions will come off!

I for one am really looking forward to seeing the winter forecasts come from many of the well respected members of this forum.

Off to the Lakes next week so if anyone you could give me a heads up on it being -20 with white out conditions that would be appreciated!

I notice that his obsession about the gulf stream has subsided. That is one good thing, because based on what I read from other sources he was getting close to telling porkies.

I just hope he doesn't run away from his blog like he did at the start of the year, when the warm spring weather took him by surprise.

I wish him well, but now that he has become, dare I say 'notorious', he owes the public a proper explanation if his winter forecast goes pear shaped. People are actually spending a bit of money preparing for the worst, individuals, councils and businesses.

[19jacobob93]

Netweather themselves are forecasting a cooldown next week!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=836;sess=

Global SST anomalies are looking much, much cooler than they did last year as well.

[feb1991blizzard]

According to the CFS, November is looking the most promising month at the moment.

http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

However, CFS is the most keen model to strengthen La Nina so if it's overdoing it then things may turn out more promising.

Karyo

Yes CFSv1 and v2 now showing positive height anomolies to the north, north west and even stretching into scandinavia now as well so on the face of it Nov looks the best but December has improved of late with v1 at least showing +anomilies to the west now as opposed to the south west before and v2 now showing very slight +anomolies over the pole and lower heights to the east and south east.

I do think we will see a stronger nina than a lot of people think because the models have been trending towards it ever since mid summer now but i just hope we can get a big enough window of opportunity in the first half of winter for some stunning snowfall events before it strengthens. I have been doing some research on nino and nina events of the past and correlation with potent cold spells in the uk and although some experts say the link is tenous a neutral enso signal is the best statistically for Northern blocking in uk winters.

This will be closest to the mark in my opinion but i just hope that sudden dip can hold off longer and that the lag effect will buy us more time as well.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif

Edited October 12, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think the turn has come for January or February to be really cold if there is to be a really cold month this winter. Neither have been severe overall since the mid-1980's on the CET record, so if I were a betting man I would look later in the winter for a sustained spell of cold rather than in December.

I think Jan 10 with 1.4c was pretty cold!

[asjmcguire]

I have been quite interested in how useful the CFS model really is - so I have been running a spreadsheet that I use to record when the dam lines are over the UK. I thought it would make it easier to pick out trends. I will be interested over the winter to see if any of it's predictions pay off.

The only consistent thing the CFS is saying is a 2 week period around end of Jan, beginning of Feb with the 528dam over us, but some runs also feature the 522 down to the 510dam.

I have been maintaining the page here:

http://www.borderswe...wxdamcharts.php - please feel free to use or not as you please

Edited October 12, 2011 by Andrew Simon Jones

[Tim Bland]

That's really useful Andy, thanks for sharing that! I take it by "Uk" you mean it could just be that the 528 dam hits northern Scotland?

[Chris D]

Met Office responds to the media reports saying there's no need for alarm.

Link: http://www.metoffice...e-times-opinion

I would slightly disagree with this statement regarding last Winter's forecasts; "In fact, our forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none".

Mmm, you didn't predict the deluge of snow on the 17th-18th Dec across NW England amongst other events, especially the 20-25cm that fell in Merseyside, anymore than a couple of hours in advance. I know it's very difficult to forecast snow but a line needs to be drawn.

Edited October 12, 2011 by chris93

[Andy_]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

wow! at netweathers long range forecast! (sorry if you wanted to make a new thread or whatever on this netweather LOL)

looking very good for November/ December!!!