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A Winter's Tale

Winter 2011/2012

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Well, unfortunately there has been a substantial increase in magnetic activity from the Sun lately, so if this is a driving factor in our recent cold spells during winter, surely this isn't a good sign?

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I don't think it will have any effect at all.

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Well, unfortunately there has been a substantial increase in magnetic activity from the Sun lately, so if this is a driving factor in our recent cold spells during winter, surely this isn't a good sign?

Whilst the Solar Activity has increased, it is still WELL below what it should be going into Solar Maximum, so I don't think it's likely to be a problem. I also read that sun spots have dropped from the 100's to about 40 in the last couple of weeks or so, how true this is I don't know.

Low Solar Activity is still a key feature, I think a strengthening La Nina combined with a Strengthening -QBO all point to a below average November and December. January is still uncertain, whilst a -QBO points to a colder January, a strengthening La Nina would suggest a milder January. So, maybe we'll see a cross over with colder spells interspersed with milder spells through January, before seeing a milder February.

That's where I stand at the moment, anyway.

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Well, unfortunately there has been a substantial increase in magnetic activity from the Sun lately, so if this is a driving factor in our recent cold spells during winter, surely this isn't a good sign?

But I don't think that'll have any noticeable effect on the weather, though. Corbyn would, of course, disagree. But then he would, wouldn't he? His public-relations machinery would demand it...

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Well, unfortunately there has been a substantial increase in magnetic activity from the Sun lately, so if this is a driving factor in our recent cold spells during winter, surely this isn't a good sign?

Where did you read that it's magnetic field was increasing? Because the last thing I read about a month ago stated that although the sunspot number was increasing, the magnetic field was still falling, and was due to fall below 1500 gauss in the next few years which is basically the minimum requirement for sunspots to be produced. I can personally tell that the field is still low because sunspots normally last for a matter of weeks but recently they've been lasting a few days at best.

The sunspot number is 65 today and was 47 yesterday. And yes last week it reached about 150 if i can remember correctly.

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check this link 4th the cold winter in a row if this is right

http://www.exactawea...ainswinter1.pdf

The fact that hes basing his forecast on Volcanic Activity throws it out for me. The eruptions were not big enough to have an effect, nor did they produce enough Sulfur Dioxide to begin to reflect sunlight from the Earth.

La Nina/Solar Activity may be favorable as he talks about, but definitely not volcanic activity.

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I suspect RJS is probably along the right lines - below average first half, fairly mild second half. The strengthening La Nina will probably mean that late winter will be similar to last year (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images1/nino34SSTMon.gif), though probably not as cold to begin with. I reckon it's more likely to be milder than average than colder than average but really that's not much more than a guess. Precipitation will probably be around average, though perhaps drier first half than second half.

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BFTP can you please explain this "his theory isn't likely to be dramatically interfered with short term so my reckoning is that it will remain simialr to.... "

Roger's theory uses the planetary magnetic field influences on earth which affects the pressure patterns. These influences and his research theory enable him to predict well ahead. The positioning of these planets and their anticipated affects will be the same come 3 months as where one expects them to be now. ie Full Moon is on 12th, new moon is 27th Sept. That will be come 12th and 27th.

BFTP

Well, unfortunately there has been a substantial increase in magnetic activity from the Sun lately, so if this is a driving factor in our recent cold spells during winter, surely this isn't a good sign?

http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc20_sc24.png

As you can see cycle 24 is running well below 20 and although its reaching its maxima its well well below that of 20. And cycle 20 wasn't a particularly strong cycle either.

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I think this Winter will lead on from the last 2, looking forward to some ridiculous Greenland blocking.

I really hopecast that the Limpet high doesnt appear again and marry itself to the British Isles.

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My thoughts on a drier than average winter for many areas are now been backed up by Positive Weather Solutions, a dry cold winter is still on. msp_thumbup.gif

December 2011

Generally drier than average bar South West England, Wales, Midlands.

On the average for temperature.

White Christmas: 29%

January 2012

Drier than average for many areas, bar Scotland, North East England, Eastern England.

Colder than average generally especially early to mid month.

February 2012

Drier than average for Southern and Central England, Wales.

Colder than average. Especially early month to mid month.

March 2012

Wetter than average for the SW England, Wales.

Slightly warmer than average.

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Saturday September 10th 2011

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

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Difficult to take PWS seriously, IMO.

It's a case of pick your forecaster and someone's bound to be close to the mark.

Earlier forecast from end-Aug followed by a "disclaimer" from Jonathan Powell in relation to Serena's forecast posted by GavinD.

Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012

This generic PWS Frontiercast for Europe is geographically centred upon France / Germany / Switzerland. These data cannot therefore be used as a guide for conditions in more peripheral regions of our continent.

September: Warmer than average / precipitation around the norm

October: Somewhat milder than average / wetter than normal

November: Average temperatures / wetter in southern regions

December: Slightly colder than average / precipitation around the norm

January 2012: Slightly colder than average / precipitation around the norm

Ray Anthony

Chief Assistant Weather Forecaster

Saturday August 27th 2011

PWS Comment Extra

Winter 2011/12 Forecast, Not Yet Folks!....

As regular visitors to PWS will know, the company concentrates its main work on long range forecasting, with predictions made several months ahead of the arrival of a new season.

Back in June, it was decided that we would employ the services of a 'number cruncher', (our Serena), who would basically run the system ahead to incorporate another season beyond that which we were forecasting for.

Serena has indeed identified patterns and trends in the data, but PWS advises that her findings are merely a general theme for that season and is not PWS's proper seasonal forecast.

Whereas her work is noteworthy, at this range it really is too early to call what will happen, so it is advisable to wait for the winter forecast launch to see how PWS expects the new season to behave, and this can only be done by using a formula which envelopes more current data, data which Serena is not using in these extreme long range forecasts.

Jonathan Powell

Senior Weather Forecaster

Saturday September 10th 2011 - (Originally Posted Saturday September 3rd 2011)

Disclaimer. The opinions expressed by the above forecaster are not necessarily those of Positive Weather Solutions.

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looked at the cfs charts lately? Starting to nudge more and more to higher heights, all very slowly, but incredible sign to see:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images1/glbz700Mon.gif This model not as good, but December looks ok, with probably occasional cold punt from the north as the pressure over the uk gets pushed south and then pressure rises slightly to the west.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images2/glbz700Mon.gif Oct and Nov blocked, -nao probably and cold. December, Stronger pressure to the west and northwest of the UK, not a big greenland high, but even in winter like 63 and 1890, pressure was still low enough to bring in the very cold air. Blue air mass in europe.

Jan looks ok, looks cold, can't imagine, it being that mild. Feb, well fantastic.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbz700Mon.gif Oct and Nov -NAO and blocked= cold. December blocked Atlantic with pressure nudging to greenland, =cold. Over recent days the trend has been for the oranges to move more north or being favoured position. Jan and feb would be cold, looks more favour for polar maritime air?

The way I see it, as long as there is not much in the way of high pressure to the south of the uk and blues all around the north, all looks positive, based on these charts. Most of high pressure is shown to the west, north west and near greenland.

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I think its very difficult to have a good idea what will happen this winter. I can see both sides of the argument,those who think it could be mild because of the last few winters being cold and those who think we will have another cold one. My best guess is maybe for an average winter,maybe a winter like 86-87 which was average overall but had a notable sharp but fairly short cold spell that jan. Maybe the same this winter but with the sharp and shortish cold spell in Dec?

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At the moment, I would say anything could happen this winter by I've got a feeling that it will be somewhere between average to well below average. I don't expect a mild winter unless a promising big freeze fails to happen. Even if it is a mild winter, you can't rule out snow. Even in winters such as 2006/2007 there were cold snaps except they were not as cold, snowy or prolonged as in recent years. Even so, Frontal Snowfall can be just as distruptive as a big freeze.

Regarding Solar Activity, La Nina, Recent Patterns... I expect a cold winter and a winter somewhere between a 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 type. I fully expect winter arrive sometime between the 15th of November and December, followed by a month of below average temperatures. I expect January to be below average with a little more snow than we had last year. I expect Febuary to be above average but not as mild as last year.

However, anything can happen, but I expect a severe cold and snowy spell and I believe that winters such as 2006/2007 are behind us now. With autumn arriving so early and La Nina, I expect the worse of the weather to be in December and I expect January to have one or two notable Battleground Snow events plus a few decent cold snaps. With a strengthening La Nina, Febuary should be the warmest month of the winter.

Very Cold Winter - 20%, Cold Winter - 35%, Average Winter - 25%, Mild Winter - 15%, Very Mild Winter - 5%

Depending on how early and intense the first (and perhaps main) severe cold spell (if it happens) is, I expect December to be Below Average. Cold Weather should realisticly arrive between 20th November and 10th December. I expect the cold spell to last throughout December with temperatures regualry falling below -15c in Scottish Highlands and 30cm of snow quite widespread (particulary in the North and East).

Start Date of Cold Weather: 28th November

End Date of 1st Cold Spell: 8th December

Cold Weather Resumes: 15th December

Ends: 2nd January

Min Temp: -22C in Altnaharra

Max Snow Depths: 60cm in Tomintoul

White Christmas: 45%

December 2011 CET: -0.6C

I expect the big freeze to finish sometime between 25th December and 5th January but my prediction is 2nd January. The month should see a mixture of mild and cold weather, atlantic and anticyclonic, snowy and windy. I expect a couple of significant and widespread cold spells lasting around 5 days each. Some battleground snowfalls, periods of Atlantic dominated weather and Anticyclonic with frosts.

Min Temperature: -14C in Braemar

Max Depth: 45cm

January CET: 2C

Febuary should see a warm up but expect 5 days of bitterly cold weather from the east before the mild weather dominates again. I expect a few spells of cold weather but in general a warmer month. Perhaps a spell of sunny and cold weather.

Min Temperature: -9C Braemar

Max Snow Depth: 25cm

Febuary CET: 3.9c

OVERALL WINTER CET: 1.7C

Winter 2010/2011 = 2.43C

Winter 20111/2012 = 1.7C

Winter 2009/2010 = 1.64C

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I'll have a rinse and repeat of last year please!

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AWT - Autumn started on September 1st, and always will. Winter will start on December the 1st. Your forecast is definitely wishful thinking and I don't understand the 2006/07 comment - even during the coldest wastes of the LIA winters you would have mild ones frequently. However, tbf any forecast is wishful thinking :)

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I don't really buy that just because the last few winters were colder than average that we cannot see another colder than average winter. Under the "law of average" or the law of large numbers, there's absolutely nothing to stop this winter being colder than last (or indeed the next four) - casinos use this exact same tactic to entice people to play roulette (by displaying the last 10 numbers on a screen with their colour). When we consider that climate is forever changing and going through different periods of warming and cooling, the idea that there is some underlying "average" that must be balanced out over just three winters of cold weather (!) is a bit weak imho.

The diagram below expresses quite nicely my point.

Lawoflargenumbersanimation.gif

In the long run things are indeed more likely to balance themselves out, but I certainly would not say that three years is "in the long run."

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I don't really buy that just because the last few winters were colder than average that we cannot see another colder than average winter. Under the "law of average" or the law of large numbers, there's absolutely nothing to stop this winter being colder than last (or indeed the next four) - casinos use this exact same tactic to entice people to play roulette (by displaying the last 10 numbers on a screen with their colour). When we consider that climate is forever changing and going through different periods of warming and cooling, the idea that there is some underlying "average" that must be balanced out over just three winters of cold weather (!) is a bit weak imho.

The diagram below expresses quite nicely my point.

Lawoflargenumbersanimation.gif

In the long run things are indeed more likely to balance themselves out, but I certainly would not say that three years is "in the long run."

If we look at the last three winters - only 2009/10 as a whole turned out to be a notably cold one. Winter 08/09 was only slightly below average - a very topsy turvy winter with cold spells interspersed with average/above average conditions, and last winter was only slightly below average as whole - skewed by the remarkable december - after the 27th dec conditions were average at best indeed Feb 2011 was notably mild. If we had seen three notably cold winters in a row.. (difficult to achieve), or even three rather cold winters on a scale like 90/91 or 95/96 as opposed to one severe one and two slightly below average winters, then I would agree with some others who say the odds of a notably cold winter again are slim, but this isn't the case. The run of summers with supressed temps continues.. so I'm sure the same can happen with our winters.

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If we look at the last three winters - only 2009/10 as a whole turned out to be a notably cold one. Winter 08/09 was only slightly below average - a very topsy turvy winter with cold spells interspersed with average/above average conditions, and last winter was only slightly below average as whole - skewed by the remarkable december - after the 27th dec conditions were average at best indeed Feb 2011 was notably mild. If we had seen three notably cold winters in a row.. (difficult to achieve), or even three rather cold winters on a scale like 90/91 or 95/96 as opposed to one severe one and two slightly below average winters, then I would agree with some others who say the odds of a notably cold winter again are slim, but this isn't the case. The run of summers with supressed temps continues.. so I'm sure the same can happen with our winters.

Good point.

We really haven't had a very cold winter yet. 2008 / 2009 was pretty feeble.

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It is a hard one to put in place this autumn/winter of what time cold is to start, and when it does how long would it last, but i can say im quite sure of at least one extreme month to come as like last december, although that month was beyond extreme! but who can really say we cant do it again? why not? place the bets now and i can see more bets going on a freeze like last winter, because we are in a cold phase, and if the pattern is right then we get cold real cold and widespread, its not about no severe cold(cant say snow at this point! could be a dry cold)its about when it sets in and how it builds up, we could think of mild mild staying put but it wont, the jet rolling south, la-nina becomes set in for winter-maybe staying weaker, the solar conditions/sunspots are not really improving and have set us up for cold phase anyway, and the maximum is a low maximum by normal rates, theres alot more cloud this summer gone and not much heating of the oceans, but thats not stopped hurricanes coming our way. of course all this wont mean no mild air this winter because as long as we have a warmer south to suck up some tropical mixed air then we are ok for mild if we get the right set up. so it all about the pattern we enter and not if we get a big freeze but when.

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, and last winter was only slightly below average as whole -

Last winter was more than that, it was 1C below the 1961-1990 average as a whole, I wouldn't call that slightly, not by a degree. Its even more against the 1971-2000 average, below by 1.4C.

Also believe it or not, it was colder than every winter of the 1960s except 1962-63 for the CET. Infact you only have to shunt last winter back by just a week into the last week of November and the CET ends up as 2.5C

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If we look at the last three winters - only 2009/10 as a whole turned out to be a notably cold one. Winter 08/09 was only slightly below average - a very topsy turvy winter with cold spells interspersed with average/above average conditions, and last winter was only slightly below average as whole - skewed by the remarkable december - after the 27th dec conditions were average at best indeed Feb 2011 was notably mild. If we had seen three notably cold winters in a row.. (difficult to achieve), or even three rather cold winters on a scale like 90/91 or 95/96 as opposed to one severe one and two slightly below average winters, then I would agree with some others who say the odds of a notably cold winter again are slim, but this isn't the case. The run of summers with supressed temps continues.. so I'm sure the same can happen with our winters.

In the last five summers, only 2011 has been a cool summer overall. Summer 2007 was only just under average due to a fairly warm June. Summer 2008 was broadly close to average overall. Summers 2009 and 2010 were both a little above average, and each saw a couple of warmer than average months.

I certainly more than share your view about winter 2010-11. If you take out of the equation the first 27 days of December, the CET for winter 2010-11 is 5.0*C, not the 3.1 that it ended up. Removing the first 27 days out of 90 adds 1.9 to the winter CET. So post Xmas, winter 2010-11 was a fairly mild winter and a typical winter of the 1988-2008 period. Winter 2010-11 is certainly a case where a relatively mild winter is skewed by a notable early cold spell for less than the first third of the winter.

Last winter was more than that, it was 1C below the 1961-1990 average as a whole, I wouldn't call that slightly, not by a degree. Its even more against the 1971-2000 average, below by 1.4C.

Also believe it or not, it was colder than every winter of the 1960s except 1962-63 for the CET. Infact you only have to shunt last winter back by just a week into the last week of November and the CET ends up as 2.5C

I think that more winters in the 1960s were far more spread out than last winter, with cold spells spread throughout the winter more instead of all being over by Xmas to deteriorate into nothing.

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