Winter 2011/2012

ZONE 51 · October 14, 2011

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ZONE 51 · October 14, 2011

EML good post, and i agree with alot of that, i expect a slower move to a milder end to winter, i dont think there will be a sudden warm up, its more likely to be a battle to get that mild air to stay, the cold holding on and getting moved away for a short period but moving back in, i still expect at least a few weeks extreme cold and widespread ice event, a cold winter well below average, more normal cold rather then milder air flows, but with severe cold spells, spring not springing until much later than last year.

Edited October 14, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

Roger J Smith · October 14, 2011

Yes, this is why I posted my summary here earlier, we launched our winter forecast on the "Irish Weather Online" website in sync with my daily posts on the Boards.ie weather forum. I may start a thread later on my winter forecast for the UK but I haven't had a chance to talk to Fred yet about the details. The technique has been refined from previous efforts (of mine) now that I have all the daily CET data available for computer modelling. Previously it was only monthly values. Essentially these forecasts are just pattern interpretations of numerical data from dozens of analogue sets for individual variables. I've found that it generally runs ahead of random variation but as everyone and his dog seems to be long-range forecasting these days, I don't have any clear idea of where the technique stands in comparison to the herd. Noting that the herd are generally calling for an ice age winter based on cumulative solar effects (I think), my forecast is clearly in a somewhat different position although the numbers do trend well down in mid-January.

As to all the different names I use, this has happened rather by accident, I posted on Irish weather forums just expecting it to be a minor sideline and used my birth name rather than my public name, then various things happened and I have become fairly well known in Ireland for weather forecasts (mostly to do with that late November and December snow onslaught around Dublin), so, it is what it is. Still Roger J Smith half the time anyway. You have to admit, M.T. Cranium is one of the better weather forum names you might ever hope to see. But I saw a better one on American Weather the other day -- "Toad Strangler."

ZONE 51 · October 14, 2011

That would be good RJS look foward to your forecast thread! always find your posts interesting.

When we look at the solar effect these are the prolonged and continued effects, wheres the lunar(moon) is phases, combining both i would expect some very unusual setups this winter, the low solar activity already has had its oceanic effects and is delayed, so i dont see the increase in activity playing any major effect on the weather this winter.

ZONE 51 · October 14, 2011

Heres a snow accumulation chart up to next friday, this could be indicating snowfall only over the mountains or high tops, but you never know!

Looking at the data i would say there is snow on the way for northern areas but over the higher ground, there is the chance of heavy downpours and features pulling down the colder upper air, and during the colder hours overnight i would imagine there is the possibility of wet snow to lower northern areas, just a risk, things can change. hail would appear proberly as soft hail, this can become fluffy soft and lay quicker then snow at a higher temperature(as in summer)so hail is the best chance of a whiteout at low levels, ok this is not a ramp! this risk is really there for north hill snowfall, mid october and we are seeing the risk of snow!

The south, maybe the best chance here is once again the hail risk, convective showers containing hail that could settle, now thats what im more interested in for my parts as the risk of snow is not for us as far as i can see, just not cold enough, bring on the hail!

Edited October 14, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

etched Chaos · October 14, 2011

After taking a forum sabbatical through the dreaded mild weather and the summer I'm back to prepare for the upcoming winter. I'm hoping the more extreme forecasts come to fruitiion as I'm deeply adverse to all the mild talk. I also hope my area actually gets a proper dusting this time, last year was agony, reading about everyone else enjoying all the lovely snow and I seemed to be stuck in the snowless corridor for most of it.

ForeverPomeroysnow · October 14, 2011

Yes, this is why I posted my summary here earlier, we launched our winter forecast on the "Irish Weather Online" website in sync with my daily posts on the Boards.ie weather forum. I may start a thread later on my winter forecast for the UK but I haven't had a chance to talk to Fred yet about the details. The technique has been refined from previous efforts (of mine) now that I have all the daily CET data available for computer modelling. Previously it was only monthly values. Essentially these forecasts are just pattern interpretations of numerical data from dozens of analogue sets for individual variables. I've found that it generally runs ahead of random variation but as everyone and his dog seems to be long-range forecasting these days, I don't have any clear idea of where the technique stands in comparison to the herd. Noting that the herd are generally calling for an ice age winter based on cumulative solar effects (I think), my forecast is clearly in a somewhat different position although the numbers do trend well down in mid-January.

As to all the different names I use, this has happened rather by accident, I posted on Irish weather forums just expecting it to be a minor sideline and used my birth name rather than my public name, then various things happened and I have become fairly well known in Ireland for weather forecasts (mostly to do with that late November and December snow onslaught around Dublin), so, it is what it is. Still Roger J Smith half the time anyway. You have to admit, M.T. Cranium is one of the better weather forum names you might ever hope to see. But I saw a better one on American Weather the other day -- "Toad Strangler."

I don't even want to know why a person would have that kind of name, thanks for the Irish update RJS, would you mind if I posted this in the Irish regional section?

syed2878 · October 14, 2011

Well guys what ever happens this winter i hope we get a good dumping of snow in birmingham. It's hard to take when every1 talking about heavy snow last winter when we mist out on alot of it.

Weather of Mass Disruption · October 14, 2011

After taking a forum sabbatical through the dreaded mild weather and the summer I'm back to prepare for the upcoming winter. I'm hoping the more extreme forecasts come to fruitiion as I'm deeply adverse to all the mild talk. I also hope my area actually gets a proper dusting this time, last year was agony, reading about everyone else enjoying all the lovely snow and I seemed to be stuck in the snowless corridor for most of it.

I know that feeling only too well, hence the name! The last 2 to 3 winters have been the best we have had since the mid 1980's and long may it continue. For the past 2 decades we have had very short lived affairs, perhaps the occasional dumping which would last a day or 2 at best. It would frustrate the life out of me seeing so many other counties enjoying so much snow and cold weather, and relatively speaking, these were not always that far away. I have read that it has something to do with the Trent Valley. I always think we fare better when the cold comes from the East.

BLAST FROM THE PAST · October 14, 2011

It is what it is. Most folk know my long term thoughts and the banging on about a 36 year perturbation cycle we have entered since Feb 07 which will 'encourage' more La Nina and also fits snugly with an increase in the presence of a -ve NAO. It will come as no surpise that I see no change this coming winter, - ve NAO will be very much present throughout the winter but will break in Feb.

I also have gone on about the longterm southward shift of the jetstream. Is this to do with the perturbation cycle? Partially as -ve NAO makes it more meridional and sends LPs on a southerly track, but there is other longterm cycles that are shifting it longterm south IMO and the notion that law of averages will give us a mild winter this time round are out of the window.

Are we in for a 3rd consecutive cold winter.......simple answer that overall Yes. Well I mused in the summer that I expect another winter with an 'extreme' month. I still expect that [and for the poster I pm'd re this a few weeks back my anticipation/confidence percentage has been further consolidated] as the pattern we see developing before our eyes over the next 2 weeks is what I've been looking for and is mouthwatering.

Last year I misdirected RJS into going for the cold to reshape end of Jan into Feb, RJS research model in fact favoured mild in Feb. It had a go but the cold pattern had broken and never got going again.

RJS has pm'd me and I will send Roger my thoughts over...it seems that my bold assertion of an 'extreme' month won't be required....Roger sees that himself. Extreme to me is CET of 1.5c or below.

BFTP

Andy_ · October 14, 2011

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Oct 2011 to Friday 28 Oct 2011:

Starting chilly across the UK with showers for most areas carried in a cool northwesterly wind, and snow showers on the mountains of Scotland and possibly to low levels too in the far northeast.

Low level snow possible for the far north east of Scotland into next week according to the Met Office... Winter is definitely starting to appear!

Edited October 14, 2011 by Andy163

Bogman · October 14, 2011

I'm going to copy this post and keep hold of it so I can use it to laugh at after winter's over.

Never saw anybody talk with such "certainty" about the upcoming summer definitely having an "extreme month" or any such thing, in mid-April! Talk about setting yourself up for a big fall!

This whole post is ramped up garbage! Thanks for the laughs though.

Now I'm, just off to prepare my final thoughts on next July's record breaking heat and guarantee that we will break 45°C in SE England for once and for all!!!! LOL!

I already worked out nobody likes these posts from me but I say it like it is!!

And I'll do the same for you.

Radiating Dendrite · October 14, 2011

I'm going to copy this post and keep hold of it so I can use it to laugh at after winter's over.

Never saw anybody talk with such "certainty" about the upcoming summer definitely having an "extreme month" or any such thing, in mid-April! Talk about setting yourself up for a big fall!

This whole post is ramped up garbage.

To be fair BFTP has been right in the past. At least he is calling it as he sees it and not hiding behind "could be mild" or "could be cold" statements.

You always seem to be criticising others, or moaning that the weather is poor where you live. Why dont you either:

A. Issue your own forecast and be judged.

B. Move!

Radiating Dendrite · October 14, 2011

How can anybody be so foolish to actually think they have a totally certain idea of exactly what could happen in winter in mid-October?????

It is a weather forum.

This is the winter 11/12 section.

It would be pretty crap if people did not state what they think will happen (be they right or wrong).

wolvesfan · October 14, 2011

hi all,my personal gut feeling regarding the upcoming winter is we will see similar conditions to the previous three years.the fact that weve had three consecutive cold winters brings me to this conclusion,our weather historicaly seems to come in cycles that last sometimes decades and seeing though weve experienced predominantly mild winters from 1998 up to 2007 maybe the tide has turned and we are now entering a period of cold that could last a similar length of time.

Cheshire Freeze · October 14, 2011

Two reasons why people are all forecasting colder than average winters. and they have nothing to do with QBO, ENSO, LA NINA and all this other justifications people are trying to use...

it's because they all WANT cold winters. This is all dream-cast stuff. The very fact we had two cold winters in a row actually by statistical averages, means the next one is highly unlikely to be so cold.

People made this mistake with summer 2006, believing (inc. the met office) that 2007 would be very hot. Egg on faces again. The weather WILL catch you all out.

And i'll turn your comment around by saying there's a reason why you keep relentlessly shooting people and their forecasts down...........because you WANT a mild winter!

Seriously, this is a friendly forum- granted people will have opposing views within their personal preferences but that should preclude personal attacks, sniping and one-up-manships.

Edited October 14, 2011 by CreweCold

Radiating Dendrite · October 14, 2011

Two reasons why people are all forecasting colder than average winters. and they have nothing to do with QBO, ENSO, LA NINA and all this other justifications people are trying to use...

Firstly it's because they all WANT cold winters. This is all dream-cast stuff. The very fact we had two cold winters in a row actually by statistical averages, means the next one is highly unlikely to be so cold.

Secondly, it's due to this superstition that some kind of "unusual pattern" has developed to cause the recent colder winters and that we are stuck in it and therefore must get a third cold winter. Again unproven.

People made this mistake with summer 2006, believing (inc. the met office) that 2007 would be very hot. Egg on faces again. The weather WILL catch you all out.

Statistics do not work like that.

If I through 50 heads in a row it would still be 50/50 whether the next would be a heads.

I understand your point that nobody can be certain of what will happen, but people are entitled to issue their own forecasts. If it annoys you that much then just ignore them.

At the end of the day, the winner will be announced on March 1st 2012.

UV-RAY · October 14, 2011

Two reasons why people are all forecasting colder than average winters. and they have nothing to do with QBO, ENSO, LA NINA and all this other justifications people are trying to use...

Firstly it's because they all WANT cold winters. This is all dream-cast stuff. The very fact we had two cold winters in a row actually by statistical averages, means the next one is highly unlikely to be so cold.

Secondly, it's due to this superstition that some kind of "unusual pattern" has developed to cause the recent colder winters and that we are stuck in it and therefore must get a third cold winter. Again unproven.

People made this mistake with summer 2006, believing (inc. the met office) that 2007 would be very hot. Egg on faces again. The weather WILL catch you all out.

Pity the weather doesn't follow statistics though.

Radiating Dendrite · October 14, 2011

Statistics do not work like that.

If I through 50 heads in a row it would still be 50/50 whether the next would be a heads.

I understand your point that nobody can be certain of what will happen, but people are entitled to issue their own forecasts. If it annoys you that much then just ignore them.

At the end of the day, the winner will be announced on March 1st 2012.

Additionally, there can be no argument in terms of the southward movement of the Jet since 2007, this is plain for all to see and why you keep moaning about crap summers!

Summer Sun · October 14, 2011

Even Netweather's LFR has things maybe warming up into 2012 so people shouldn't get there hopes up just becasue certain forecasts in the media state "Cold Winter", "Mini Ice age" ect.

Winter

December

Winter is expected to begin with the northern blocking still in place, and this means that temperatures are forecast to be below average for much of the country. Rainfall levels are forecast to be close to, or a little below normal for the time of year.

January

As is always the case, the further into the forecast we go, the lower confidence there is so please bear this in mind as we look ahead to January..

Current expectations are that January will bring something of a change in pattern with Atlantic low pressure having more influence and bring milder temperatures with rainfall close to the the seasonal average too.

Even if December is cold it's not certain to have the same levels of snow as last year.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

UV-RAY · October 14, 2011

Even Netweather's LFR has things maybe warming up into 2012 so people shouldn't get there hopes up just becasue certain forecasts in the media state "Cold Winter", "Mini Ice age" ect.

Winter

December

Winter is expected to begin with the northern blocking still in place, and this means that temperatures are forecast to be below average for much of the country. Rainfall levels are forecast to be close to, or a little below normal for the time of year.

January

As is always the case, the further into the forecast we go, the lower confidence there is so please bear this in mind as we look ahead to January..

Current expectations are that January will bring something of a change in pattern with Atlantic low pressure having more influence and bring milder temperatures with rainfall close to the the seasonal average too.

Even if December is cold it's not certain to have the same levels of snow as last year.

http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

Pity it's not the LRF though.

Summer Sun · October 14, 2011

Pity it's not the LRF though.

Yes it is,

Autumn and into Winter - Long Range Forecast - Updated 12th October 2011

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Cheshire Freeze · October 14, 2011

Not so simple Crew Cold.

Remember the netweather.tv summer forecast?

The first thing I did NOT think was "ooooh goody, a hot summer they say, oh obviously it will happen, because it's what I want".

In fact my first thought was "they are shooting themselves in the foot". I saw the "shades of 76" headline and I somehow knew we'd have the coldest summer in 23 years. Funny, because the weather always catches people out.

The forecast was bold, I'll give it that. But that only makes its failure that much more acute, and I really have to ask the question is there any point in having such specific beliefs of what will happen in the long range forecast?

People applaud them so much but when totally wrong, it was clearly as useful as a chocolate tea-pot.

You're missing the point, people spend time and effort putting these forecasts together for the benefit of others; they don't claim they have clairvoyant abilities or powers akin to God- they just produce a forecast. Without people analysing factors that could possibly affect the synoptics of a given season, LRFs would never progress and the science of meteorology would stand still in that respect.

Edited October 14, 2011 by CreweCold

UV-RAY · October 14, 2011

Yes it is,

Autumn and into Winter - Long Range Forecast - Updated 12th October 2011

http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

No it's not as it only covers November and December with any confidence, and November is Autumn.

Liam J · October 14, 2011

But, how can anybody be so foolish to actually think they have a totally certain idea of exactly what could happen in winter in mid-October?????

I'll tell you what will happen in winter. It will be cold. That's all any of you can say. Certain of an extreme month? No you're not.

I think you might be missing the whole point of the thread here mate, perhaps the whole point of the weather forums here on NW.

Edited October 14, 2011 by Liam J

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