1 Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[toggerob]

ha. Turns out i'm wrong about that cell, nothing more than mid-level AcCas and its even surprising that much precip is being picked up on the radar, giving absolutely nil is visually being seen coming from the skies.

These kind of scanarios' have a nack for catching those unawares as I distinctly remember 2 or 3 years back watching a cell explode over the Goyt Valley that was 3/4 vis covered by mid-layer AcCas, and in the same scenario as today only the ever increasing deepening bases eventually gave it away. Before the inevitable rumbles and IC/CC lightning overhead.

[Costa Del Fal]

27.3c here which is well over the GFS and Meto predictions and a dewpoint of 15.4c which isnt too far off the GFS actually given that it usually way overcooks this element thus its very oppressive and humid/muggy here. Tomorrow looks like the best chance for action here.

[Jane Louise]

I sure hope the MO is wrong. Past incidents have proved this on a couple of occasions. Maybe it's better that they don't mention the T word because it could quite well happen then Lol.

[Coast]

27.3c here which is well over the GFS and Meto predictions and a dewpoint of 15.4c which isnt too far off the GFS actually given that it usually way overcooks this element thus its very oppressive and humid/muggy here. Tomorrow looks like the best chance for action here.

Maybe the GFS are right about the potential for this week, they've been back and forward to it like a dog with a buried bone!

[Raidan]

By the sounds of things i was right,Rumours of storm potential this week slowly but surely disappearing,Same old story i guess.

[Staffordshire]

By the sounds of things i was right,Rumours of storm potential this week slowly but surely disappearing,Same old story i guess.

There not disapeering at all?! I think people are just getting a bit concerned that nothing is really happening eletric wise today, and to be fair nothing eletric was meant to happen today, and all is still to play for tommorow!

[Darren Bown]

Sky has lost the thundery look now, seems to be quite pleasant now, although still very humid!

[rosgar]

Torrential rain in Chirk now, no sferics tho....

[Harry]

We have to be realistic - there isn't actually that high a risk of thunder today.

Should be a line of heavy rain/downpours tonight which may deliver the odd spark here and there, but the only real indicator for thunder was Estofex and even they were 15% within a 50km radius.

I would however anticipate meandering forecasts in the next 24-36 hours as I do not think the setup is anywhere near nailed on.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Torrential rain in Chirk now, no sferics tho....

I can see that lot approaching from the south. Sky has a deceptively thundery look about it...but if you've said no sferics then I'll not expect any today.

[rosgar]

Not exactly known for our thunderstorms though are we?

[Carl46Wrexham]

Not exactly known for our thunderstorms though are we?

Put 2010 and 2011 together and it's safe to say....absolutely not! 1 thunder day over the past 5 consecutive summer months is a joke quite frankly.

[Harry]

[sE/London Post]

12z further reduces any sort of risk of imports

This leaves us at the mercy of westerlies which I'm especially hopeful of at the moment

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like quite a sharp burst around the Wrexham area at the moment, surprised a rumble hasn't been heard.

[Chris K]

So humid here feels oppressive. Sky is bright but dull/grey. Can't see much happening here today which is what was forecasted anyway, however looking forward to the potential over the next couple of days! Wonder if the rain predicted here early tues morning will produce anything? (except water)

[Carl46Wrexham]

Looks like quite a sharp burst around the Wrexham area at the moment, surprised a rumble hasn't been heard.

it has gone very dark indeed, but nothing heard at all...unless wheelie bins count....damn I wish they'd ban the moving of those things on certain days of the year!

[Static Prevails]

This is what the Met Office are saying for my region (East Midlands) tomorrow:

Tuesday:

A dull start with some further rain or drizzle. This should clear soon after midday. The sunshine and high temperatures may spark of a few afternoon thunderstorms. Feeling very humid. Maximum temperature 26 °C.

[Cheshire Freeze]

it has gone very dark indeed, but nothing heard at all...unless wheelie bins count....damn I wish they'd ban the moving of those things on certain days of the year!

I have been caught out myself by the old wheelie bin 'false rumble'

GFS seems to be downplaying the risk on Weds now for heavy showers and thunderstorms, instead it's looking like an OK day. Tomorrow I'm not convinced about either, the 12z GFS seems to have shunted potential to the east as opposed to earlier runs which leaves Wales looking exempt from t-storm activity and other western areas of England on shaky ground as to whether they see anything.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I have been caught out myself by the old wheelie bin 'false rumble'

GFS seems to be downplaying the risk on Weds now for heavy showers and thunderstorms, instead it's looking like an OK day. Tomorrow I'm not convinced about either, the 12z GFS seems to have shunted potential to the east as opposed to earlier runs which leaves Wales looking exempt from t-storm activity and other western areas of England on shaky ground as to whether they see anything.

Well Well....the same old same old tiresome everything goes east scenario yet again then if GFS has got it right! I wouldn't mind putting money on a completely thunderless summer...quite honestly I cannot remember the last time that happened.

[Purplepixii]

Wheelie bins are evil and I still like my idea of everyone tying those huge cow-bells on them so us storm-lovers can easily tell the difference!

As for tomorrow, well for once I am going to "do as I am told" and seek out the breeze on the beach (MO: Winds will be light inland but with cooler sea breezes near coasts.) Had some cool cloud formations today, will try to upload photo's later.

[anvilhead]

well, hopefully the less chance of imports, the less chance of a decayed anvil canopy destroying our insolation this side of the channel ... Tomorrow evening still looks promissing to me -

[P-M]

Something seems to have fired off to the SW of Newcastle but whether it's electrical is another matter - probably not!

[loopydreamer]

well....it has been one hot day here in chatham! 28C in the shade!!! here's summer!!!! Hope it stays for awhile!!!!!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Torrential rain now.

[Harry]

well....it has been one hot day here in chatham! 28C in the shade!!! here's summer!!!! Hope it stays for awhile!!!!!

According to the BBC, Gillingham topped 29C so could well have been the hottest place in the country...I personally am really looking forward to a steaming, oppressive night lol