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18 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Indeed Mr links

:lol: I do have a lot of stuff in 'My Favourites' !!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

The skies look promising for convection at Cleadon this morning but the radar doesn't- an area of persistent frontal type rain seems to be advancing south through Northumberland.

That 'frontal rain' is now intensifying on its arrival into the UK's new storm capital. Cant explain the reasons why the NE has become UK's hot spot in recent times for storms but from being the worst place to the best is quite amazing...

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Literally pouring down here in the West End, no thunder but very very heavy rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Had 1 heavy downpour in Darlington this morning, plenty of cloud around still, and if the papers are to believed there's at least another 30 day's of rain to come yet before any settled weather may arrive.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I'm no expert but I believe if the DP is relatively close to the actual temperature, where possible, this would be favourable! For example, I'm currently 16.2c with a DP of 12.9c which isn't that great to be honest. Dewpoints of 15c or above would be much more condusive for storms, alongside all the other necessary atmospheric factors.

A peek at the latest radar suggests bands of frontal band (as mentioned by TWS) crossing the UK which are currently non-electrically active.

One band is sinking southeastwards from Blackpool to almost Nottingham, another heading due east from western wales into the midlands, a mass over eastern parts of scotland and another soaking heading for the southwest later on from southern ireland.

From what I can see, not a great day for convection I'm afraid. :wallbash:

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Oh I disagree...a temperature of 16.2C with a DP of 12.9C is favourable IMO (if you're looking at DP's a no other variables)

I'm no expert and what I'm about to say may tosh, but it works for me :D

To help me visualise things, I correlate DP with the height of the cloud base. If you think that DP is the point where air can no longer hold moisture, it's therefore the point where clouds start to form. If the temperature at ground level is 16.2C, water will exist as vapour as the air is able to hold it. As the air rises, as we know, temperature starts to fall away. When you hit an altitude where the temperature is 12.9C, the air will lose it's hold on the vapour and the water will condense into clouds. Therefore, the closer the DP is to temperature, the lower to the ground the clouds start to form and potentially, the bigger (or 'deeper') they may be.

For example, let's say the highest a Cb can grow is 40,000ft. If clouds start forming at 1,000ft, then potentially the storm clouds could be 39,000ft deep - decent scope for deep convection, more collisions between ice and dust particles in the cloud and therefore a greater chance of thunder and lightning. If however, clouds start forming at say 15,000ft, the storm clouds may only be 15-20,000ft deep as opposed to 39-40,000ft - less scope for static electricity build up and therefore less scope for discharges in the form of lightning. Therefore, the higher the cloud base there is a reduced opportunity for lightning.

Now...I emphasise high DP's does NOT mean decent thunderstorm potential in its own right. Dew point/temperature spreads today are IMO favourable. But I am not optimistic for thundery showers/storms today.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Oh I disagree...a temperature of 16.2C with a DP of 12.9C is favourable IMO (if you're looking at DP's a no other variables)

I'm no expert and what I'm about to say may tosh, but it works for me :D

To help me visualise things, I correlate DP with the height of the cloud base. If you think that DP is the point where air can no longer hold moisture, it's therefore the point where clouds start to form. If the temperature at ground level is 16.2C, water will exist as vapour as the air is able to hold it. As the air rises, as we know, temperature starts to fall away. When you hit an altitude where the temperature is 12.9C, the air will lose it's hold on the vapour and the water will condense into clouds. Therefore, the closer the DP is to temperature, the lower to the ground the clouds start to form and potentially, the bigger (or 'deeper') they may be.

For example, let's say the highest a Cb can grow is 40,000ft. If clouds start forming at 1,000ft, then potentially the storm clouds could be 39,000ft deep - decent scope for deep convection, more collisions between ice and dust particles in the cloud and therefore a greater chance of thunder and lightning. If however, clouds start forming at say 15,000ft, the storm clouds may only be 15-20,000ft deep as opposed to 39-40,000ft - less scope for static electricity build up and therefore less scope for discharges in the form of lightning. Therefore, the higher the cloud base there is a reduced opportunity for lightning.

Now...I emphasise high DP's does NOT mean decent thunderstorm potential in its own right. Dew point/temperature spreads today are IMO favourable. But I am not optimistic for thundery showers/storms today.

Perfectly put, Harry. :acute::good:

Alsa, my Air Temp is now 15.7c whilst raining slightly and it's associated dewpoint is 13.4c from a high of 14.4c so potentially better now?

Let's just hope there's a trigger :aggressive:today for us in the south and of course, others.

July is statistically my best month for Thunderstorms but normally it's a damn sight warmer too? :nonono:

Thundery Regards

gottolovethisweather

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Not really a lot happening here at all. 1 or 2 showers but nothing really too major. Not entirely optimistic of anything really big hapening but you never know.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

This area got a yellow alert for tomorrow. Have you seen the mass of rain knocking on the south wests door..

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Meto:

Issued at - 18 Jul 2011, 10:46

Valid from - 19 Jul 2011, 11:00

Valid to - 19 Jul 2011, 20:00

Slow moving heavy and thundery showers are likely to develop during Tuesday afternoon across parts of southeast Scotland and northeast England.

These showers may give 10 to 20 mm of rain within an hour in a few places. (This warning also extends down most of the eastern UK so people further south likely to see some storms too)

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

That 'frontal rain' is now intensifying on its arrival into the UK's new storm capital. Cant explain the reasons why the NE has become UK's hot spot in recent times for storms but from being the worst place to the best is quite amazing...

Aye, I've been absolutely astonished to get thunder on 6 days here in Cleadon in the space of a month- and after getting just 6 days of thunder in normally thunder-prone Norwich from October 2009 up to June 2011! This band looks like it won't produce much excitement this afternoon though, the southern flank of it became increasingly active but it looks like being just moderate showery rain for the rest of the day.

Tomorrow looks distinctly interesting for this area- I think there could be some serious convergence near the North Sea coast, and CAPE/LI look favourable.

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Aye, I've been absolutely astonished to get thunder on 6 days here in Cleadon in the space of a month- and after getting just 6 days of thunder in normally thunder-prone Norwich from October 2009 up to June 2011! This band looks like it won't produce much excitement this afternoon though, the southern flank of it became increasingly active but it looks like being just moderate showery rain for the rest of the day.

Tomorrow looks distinctly interesting for this area- I think there could be some serious convergence near the North Sea coast, and CAPE/LI look favourable.

I am so liking the sound of that! :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

When were/are the storms supposed to get going? It's cloudy & wet here, it doesn't look like its going to storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

When were/are the storms supposed to get going? It's cloudy & wet here, it doesn't look like its going to storm.

Two sferics detected in the past half an hour, that's about it though.

As I mentioned before, I really don't think thunder will be as anywhere near widespread as yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Suffolk (just west of Ipswich)
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, clouds, aurora
  • Location: Suffolk (just west of Ipswich)

Heavy intense downpour here at about 215. Rumble of thunder about ten minutes ago followed by heavy rain.

Seems to be the same as yesterday, some structure to clouds, rumble in the distance and as soon as it seems to arrive here there is nothing but rain :/ interesting enough to grab some clouds shots yesterday but all a bit messy on the whole.

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

Not expecting much if any thunder this week.We never get thunder here in this type of setup, we generally need a southerly airflow, the Irish sea is the mother of all storm shields, In the right setup storms can get going over Wales then move up into the Irish sea where they tend to weaken a little,

The only time thunderstorms develop in the Irish sea is in late Autumn early winter when, after a hot summer a cold polar low pressure area moves over the still warmish waters and vigorous convection occurs , that setup has not happened for a few years though,

Edited by IanR
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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

A few strikes showing up on radar. Nothing in this area and i have resorted to visiting the volcano thread.... Seems to be some action there

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Two sferics detected in the past half an hour, that's about it though.

As I mentioned before, I really don't think thunder will be as anywhere near widespread as yesterday.

Thats true..but UKASF & ESTOFEX had watches out for large portions of the country today.

Oh well, looks like it's another meh day.

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Good old met office they have a yellow warning for my area tomorrow but when you click on the forecast there is no rain..

Edited by paul m
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Posted
  • Location: Romford
  • Location: Romford

Afternoon all :)

Weak thunderstorm passing just North of Romford with two rumbles heard so far, had a couple of quite lively storms yesterday including a very nasty line with a very dark and turbulent gust front and fairly frequent lightning which chased me home. :)

Edited by Noctilucid
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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Quite a lively looking cell on radar moving through S.London now, wouldnt be surprised to hear some thunder associated with it.

Regards,

Tom.

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Quite a lively looking cell on radar moving through S.London now, wouldnt be surprised to hear some thunder associated with it.

Regards,

Tom.

Hello,

You are right and a couple of faint flashes too, it passed over me about an hour ago now, VERY! heavy rain and huge drops of rain then a second shower passed through even bigger drops like bags dropping from the sky LOL

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, stormy summers and snowy winters please.
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Here we go again! FLASH BANG!!!!

:yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

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