12 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[Marcus_surfer]

No showers yet in Wales, forecast showed quite a mass of showers in Southern Wales, could turn out dry.

[Chris K]

Been bright but cloudy all morning here, with a slight cool breeze. I get no sense that any showers will develop in my area at least. BBC weather image downgraded the rainfall prediction for afternoon as well, but still the same description of thundery showers possibly developing in South Wales/W England and maybe SW later.

[Lauren]

How many times have people on here experienced a storm in this country when all the indicators suggest there won't be one? I was thinking about this earlier.

[Harry]

:blush: Just the thought of those thunder storms honestly!

You just know it Harry! How delighted would I be if that French activity came bounding across the water and slapped Hants, Sussex and Kent full in the face like a damp electric eel!

Wales and the West might be worth a watch later then, even if us coastal types get a day off. This one posted earlier caught my eye:

Only one indicator, true.

It looks very good, but struggling to interpret it!

Is that particular chart suggesting the Low may drift further north before shunting east?

How many times have people on here experienced a storm in this country when all the indicators suggest there won't be one? I was thinking about this earlier.

MANY TIMES!!!!!!

This is why you often see me looking for needles in haystacks, pretty much like today

I found it quite poignant last night that both John Hammond and Darren Bett made an issue with the thundery low of the continent...they steered well clear of suggesting it would come our way, but Hammond in particular said "keeping us on our toes"...or to that effect.

Edited July 12, 2011 by Harry

[Lauren]

MANY TIMES!!!!!!

This is why you often see me looking for needles in haystacks, pretty much like today

I found it quite poignant last night that both John Hammond and Darren Bett made an issue with the thundery low of the continent...they steered well clear of suggesting it would come our way, but Hammond in particular said "keeping us on our toes"...or to that effect.

I was thinking about a 12 years ago when we were caravanning. Everything in the weather suggested a lovely sunny day, nothing to even remotely suggest a thunderstorm. Yet the clouds came out of nowhere and we had one of the best thunderstorms I've ever seen in the UK.

[Coast]

It looks very good, but struggling to interpret it!

Hammond in particular said "keeping us on our toes"...or to that effect.

You've answered that yourself Harry!

It was produced yesterday so I guess has been superseded by events today anyway. France in particular has gone very quiet in comparison with earlier and although I wouldn't want to say game over, it is looking less likely than even the remote chance we had at the beginning of the day (usual caveats apply!).

[Marcus_surfer]

Isolated torrential downpours in West Wales at the moment, and lightning too from that...we just need them to fire up further east

[gottolovethisweather]

Isolated torrential downpours in West Wales at the moment, and lightning too from that...we just need them to fire up further east

Well done Nick F then and I believe the MetO also predicted it too.

Anyone want a grab............................

Well here's one, which also shows the west wales cell, just to prove Im not biased, albeit jealous.

As per usual, it looks as though the rainband (if thundery!) is heading northeastwards via the dover straits as predicted by Harry & Coast. but

The only element of excitement I could muster us is the potential front showing in the south on the midnight Fax Chart and where do it be heading I wonder?

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[TonyH]

Line of scattered showers and storms has formed in the past 2 hours SW of of here, through N Carmarthenshire and south Pembs. Sferics on AM radio fairly close by driving home from Cardigan most likely from the more intense looking western ones.

Well done Nick F then and I believe the MetO also predicted it too.

Anyone want a grab............................

Well here's one, which also shows the west wales cell, just to prove Im not biased, albeit jealous.

gottolovethisweather

Yes, they forecast them almost precisely on BBC Wales yesterday evening, something I had not really expected either.

[Marcus_surfer]

Line of scattered showers and storms has formed in the past 2 hours SW of of here, through N Carmarthenshire and south Pembs. Sferics on AM radio fairly close by driving home from Cardigan most likely from the more intense looking western ones.

Yes, they forecast them almost precisely on BBC Wales yesterday evening, something I had not really expected either.

Need em a bit further east like the forecast said!

[Arnie Pie]

Take you back to last week if i may....

Heres the timelapse of the storm which skirted to the West of Birmingham AL

Watch out for the lightning

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJvzTpEzSCY

Edited July 12, 2011 by Arnie Pie

[TonyH]

Need em a bit further east like the forecast said!

Perhaps we do, however the forecast were pretty precise given Wales is such a small area to cover in detail!

This morning on Radio 4, they said that the Brecon Beacons and Pembrokeshire would most likely see the showers.

Please appreciate just how difficult are showers and storms to pinpoint to say within 50 miles.

[paul m]

Take you back to last week if i may....

Heres the timelapse of the storm which skirted to the West of Birmingham AL

Watch out for the lightning

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJvzTpEzSCY

Once again Arnie Pie a superb video and a superb soundtrack

[TonyH]

The northern end of the line passing just 3 miles west of here, and slightly back building so it may edge this way. Fewer sferics recently though.

[Coast]

Hasn't even rained here, despite the earlier threats!

[TonyH]

Further torrential downpours by-passing here by just 2 miles to the west, more developing south and east of here too. Cooled down a lot now, 18c from a midday max of 22c.

Edited July 12, 2011 by Tonyh

[Chris K]

The sky is gradually getting darker and its gone very still and more humid out. Not sure if this is a good sign for anything, radar hasnt picked anything up anywhere near me.

[TonyH]

Single loudish rumble to my WNW 10 minutes ago, light rain here on the edge of that cell.

[Marcus_surfer]

Still no rain here, but the skies look thundery, and its very humid

[TonyH]

Heavy showers also passing just to the east now too, just a trace of rain here in the middle. No more thunder.

[Lauren]

How come we are having these daily threads even though there's very little chnace of anything happening today?

[Marcus_surfer]

How come we are having these daily threads even though there's very little chnace of anything happening today?

Has been a chance in western areas today, some storms in west wales too

[Nick F]

Recent MetO Atd sferics show storms over SW Wales and a few isolated strikes over SW England this afternoon. Some sferics between E Anglia and The Netherlands over the S North Sea (what a waste :lol: ) :

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like it's going to thunder here now

[TonyH]

Indeed Marcus, very heavy showers nearing Swansea.