Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

11 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Last Updated: 19:37 Sunday, 10th July 2011

    Valid: 06:00 Monday, 11th July 2011 - 05:59 Tuesday, 12th July 2011

    Areas Affected:

    Scotland and Northern England

    Synopsis:

    After a number of days with a highly convective pattern, the weather is gradually changing and Monday is forecast to experience a steady in rise in surface pressure, as upper troughing is replaced by a more convergent, stable environment within the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Surface pressure is forecast to range between 1020mb and 1024mb across the UK during Monday signalling an increasingly settled weather pattern, despite this a few showers are still forecast to develop.

    Discussion:

    Despite the increasingly settled pattern during the day on Monday a trough is still forecast across parts of Scotland in particular during the day. Latest atmospheric soundings across Scotland and parts of the North of England are signalling an unstable atmosphere up to around 15,000ft in association with surface temperatures near 15C or 16C and dew points near 10C into the early afternoon. As a result convective development is forecast with some TCu and isolated CB development. However, there is a strong signal for a marked area of dry air above 600mb in particular in association with descent from the ever increasingly settled and anticyclonic pattern. A scattering of moderate or heavy showers are still forecast to develop across Scotland and parts of Northern England in particular and these perhaps extending further south in association with localised convergence zones across eastern England. At the moment it would seem that the threat of thunderstorm activity is minimal. A few isolated ones may develop, but given forecasted CAPE values of no more than 200j/kg and a very low wind shear environment through the atmosphere, any TS that develop will be short-lived and have little risk of bringing any severe conditions, though some locally heavy rainfall may occur on a very localised level.

    A few scattered mainly light or moderate showers may develop across other areas of the UK during the day, but no significant convection is likely and with no threat of any thunderstorms or severe convective weather.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 26
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    Last Updated: 19:37 Sunday, 10th July 2011

    Valid: 06:00 Monday, 11th July 2011 - 05:59 Tuesday, 12th July 2011

    Areas Affected:

    Scotland and Northern England

    Synopsis:

    After a number of days with a highly convective pattern, the weather is gradually changing and Monday is forecast to experience a steady in rise in surface pressure, as upper troughing is replaced by a more convergent, stable environment within the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Surface pressure is forecast to range between 1020mb and 1024mb across the UK during Monday signalling an increasingly settled weather pattern, despite this a few showers are still forecast to develop.

    Discussion:

    Despite the increasingly settled pattern during the day on Monday a trough is still forecast across parts of Scotland in particular during the day. Latest atmospheric soundings across Scotland and parts of the North of England are signalling an unstable atmosphere up to around 15,000ft in association with surface temperatures near 15C or 16C and dew points near 10C into the early afternoon. As a result convective development is forecast with some TCu and isolated CB development. However, there is a strong signal for a marked area of dry air above 600mb in particular in association with descent from the ever increasingly settled and anticyclonic pattern. A scattering of moderate or heavy showers are still forecast to develop across Scotland and parts of Northern England in particular and these perhaps extending further south in association with localised convergence zones across eastern England. At the moment it would seem that the threat of thunderstorm activity is minimal. A few isolated ones may develop, but given forecasted CAPE values of no more than 200j/kg and a very low wind shear environment through the atmosphere, any TS that develop will be short-lived and have little risk of bringing any severe conditions, though some locally heavy rainfall may occur on a very localised level.

    A few scattered mainly light or moderate showers may develop across other areas of the UK during the day, but no significant convection is likely and with no threat of any thunderstorms or severe convective weather.

    :wallbash:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    monday - 11th july

    we have a trough over Scotland causing further downpours, some could turn into thunderstorms and during the day NorthEast could break out some interesting showers, these could turn thundery with a chance of a storm cell around!

    colder upper air and some CAPE and pockets of unstable air shown on the Lifted index charts, some ingredients for convective action!

    the data is not the updates so things can change but we can just wait and see how things go.

    post-11361-0-82220400-1310345274_thumb.g

    post-11361-0-21606500-1310345290_thumb.g

    post-11361-0-15770700-1310345282_thumb.g

    post-11361-0-75527500-1310345344_thumb.p

    post-11361-0-15702700-1310345352_thumb.g

    post-11361-0-09235300-1310345355_thumb.g

    post-11361-0-35096700-1310345339_thumb.g-just my guide here of where i think are the risk areas

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Nothing from ESTOFEX over us today, SkyWarn have a alert until lunchtime for Scotland:

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #037

    ISSUED: 1100UTC SUNDAY 10TH JULY 2011 (GJ)

    SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

    CENTRAL SCOTLAND

    EASTERN SCOTLAND

    HIGHLANDS

    IN EFFECT FROM 1100UTC SUN 10TH UNTIL 1200 MON 11TH JULY 2011

    SATURATED UNSTABLE AND SLACK AIRMASS GENERATING HEAVY PRECIPITATION

    THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

    RECURRENT HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING

    DISCUSSION:

    FOLLOWING ON FROM MET OFFICE WARNINGS FOR THE RISK AREA, WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON LOCATION, THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVELY DYNAMIC RAINFALL. AMOUNTS OVER HIGH GROUND AREAS ARE NOT CONSIDERED PROBLEMATIC, BUT EASTERN AREAS OF SCOTLAND MAY SEE SURFACE FLOODING FROM UP TO 50MM ACCUMULATIONS FROM SUCCESSIVE HEAVY SHOWERS, AND FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY GIVEN SHOWERS OF AROUND 15MM PER HOUR. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FROM OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED BACKBUILDING STORMS, OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN LEE OF HIGH GROUND AREAS NW OF ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

    UKASF:

    post-6667-0-98742400-1310367196.jpg

    Forecaster: Matt

    Last Updated: 23:11 Sunday, 10th July 2011

    Valid: 06:00 Monday, 11th July 2011 - 05:59 Tuesday, 12th July 2011

    Areas Affected:

    Scotland and Northern England

    Synopsis:

    After a number of days with a highly convective pattern, the weather is gradually changing and Monday is forecast to experience a steady in rise in surface pressure, as upper troughing is replaced by a more convergent, stable environment within the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Surface pressure is forecast to range between 1020mb and 1024mb across the UK during Monday signalling an increasingly settled weather pattern, despite this a few showers are still forecast to develop.

    Discussion:

    Despite the increasingly settled pattern during the day on Monday a trough is still forecast across parts of Scotland in particular during the day. Latest atmospheric soundings across Scotland and parts of the North of England are signalling an unstable atmosphere up to around 15,000ft in association with surface temperatures near 15C or 16C and dew points near 10C into the early afternoon. As a result convective development is forecast with some TCu and isolated CB development. However, there is a strong signal for a marked area of dry air above 600mb in particular in association with descent from the ever increasingly settled and anticyclonic pattern. A scattering of moderate or heavy showers are still forecast to develop across Scotland and parts of Northern England in particular and these perhaps extending further south in association with localised convergence zones across eastern England. At the moment it would seem that the threat of thunderstorm activity is minimal. A few isolated ones may develop, but given forecasted CAPE values of no more than 200j/kg and a very low wind shear environment through the atmosphere, any TS that develop will be short-lived and have little risk of bringing any severe conditions, though some locally heavy rainfall may occur on a very localised level.

    A few scattered mainly light or moderate showers may develop across other areas of the UK during the day, but no significant convection is likely and with no threat of any thunderstorms or severe convective weather.

    21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

    21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_30_00Z.png

    PGNE14_CL_small.gif

    gfs_icape_eur12.png

    gfs_layer_eur12.png

    gfs_kili_eur12.png

    gfs_spout_eur12.png

    gfs_lapse_eur12.png

    gfs_stp_eur12.png

    post-6667-0-98742400-1310367196_thumb.jp

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    dont see much happing today at all maybe a few showers but that about it a think

    Doesn't look great eh? But hopefully there won't be too much more rain for you guys.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

    This is a proper shower running through just now. Nothing thundery but never the less.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/misty sunrises/
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl

    The radio will be busy with sferics in the next few days, almost a kent clipper :doh: :smiliz23: , the night time storm is a rare event for the UK during the last 3 summers, two months left for this year...

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    The radio will be busy with sferics in the next few days, almost a kent clipper :doh: :smiliz23: , the night time storm is a rare event for the UK during the last 3 summers, two months left for this year...

    Indeed it most certainly is :cray:

    We tend to do a little better with last minute.com scenarios, such as this, were the low to track further north than currently expected. It seems what's holding it off is a combination of the anticyclones to our north and over C/E Europe...not outside the realm of possibilities for either of this to permit the low to encroach our way a bit.

    GFS is thinking precip may graze closely to the south coast, but given the FAX chart this is likely to be no more than frontal mess.

    We have had thunderstorms from warm fronts in the past (where warm humid air moving north, marked by the warm front, collides with much cooler air blowing from the NE setting up a whopping CZ)...given Nick F's (or many others') lack of enthusiasm, it might be a night for radar watching and contemplating what could've been.

    Still, I'm keeping a close eye on it just in case :whistling:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    To my great surprise I'm getting sunshine and showers again in Cleadon with some good skyscapes, though the convection isn't as intense as it was between last Wednesday and Saturday which produced 3 days with hail and thunder.

    I expected the north-easterly breeze to restrict showers to inland areas and perhaps bring some low cloud in off the North Sea, but so far the clouds have been moving from the NW to SE, following the upper-level winds, and the winds off the sea don't seem to be killing off the showers until they head offshore, leaving Cleadon on the eastward edge of the "shower zone".

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Some sferics reported from the MetO from the cumulonimbus cells to my north and west at present- I think it would be a bit much to expect my 4th thunder-day of this spell, but the possibility looks there at the moment!

    The lightning on the ATD was just north of Newcastle.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/misty sunrises/
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl

    Indeed it most certainly is :cray:

    We tend to do a little better with last minute.com scenarios, such as this, were the low to track further north than currently expected. It seems what's holding it off is a combination of the anticyclones to our north and over C/E Europe...not outside the realm of possibilities for either of this to permit the low to encroach our way a bit.

    GFS is thinking precip may graze closely to the south coast, but given the FAX chart this is likely to be no more than frontal mess.

    We have had thunderstorms from warm fronts in the past (where warm humid air moving north, marked by the warm front, collides with much cooler air blowing from the NE setting up a whopping CZ)...given Nick F's (or many others') lack of enthusiasm, it might be a night for radar watching and contemplating what could've been.

    Still, I'm keeping a close eye on it just in case :whistling:

    i think radar watching on tuesday will only make us angry :diablo::bomb: :o :smiliz21: ,

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

    Torrential rain with a rumble of thunder in Newcastle.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I heard a couple of distant rumbles from the cloud as it approached, no thunder here for a while so maybe the electrification has fizzled, but I certainly wasn't expecting to be seeing impressive convection today, let alone have thunder! What a remarkable spell of convective weather this has proved to be- and after a two-day interruption associated with high pressure and north-easterlies, there may well be more to come for the North East on Thursday and Friday.

    Cloud almost upon Cleadon now, so I'm interested to see what it can unleash upon us.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/misty sunrises/
  • Location: west suffolk 12 metres asl

    Torrential rain with a rumble of thunder in Newcastle.

    Newcastle must be near the top of the thunder day stats for 2011 so fa :winky:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    Torrential rain here in NE4 came out of nowhere. Sky is getting darker and darker. Not sure if any thunder will will be heard but heavy convective rain all the same :-)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

    Rain easing somewhat, but this has been a nice surprise :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    Been a great few days for those in the NE!

    Could be a few isolated reports of thunder for those in western areas tomorrow. Particularly NW England and N.Ireland :good:I'd say a 10% risk of a storm.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

    Could be a few isolated reports of thunder for those in western areas tomorrow. Particularly NW England and N.Ireland :good:I'd say a 10% risk of a storm.

    Yes, Derek Brockway had the thunder symbol over Mid / Southern parts of Wales tomorrow afternoon on the local BBC forecast this evening. If there are showers in the West tomorrow, there was a good call from TWS in the Model thread - I read one of his posts at the weekend suggesting showers in the West on Tuesday due to the Low over Northern France, when the Met Office and others still had sunshine forecast.

    GFS isn't suggesting great CAPE / Lifted Index values for storms tomorrow though, so we'll see what happens - maybe just a few sharp showers rather than storms.

    post-8245-0-41759000-1310409460_thumb.pn

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

    Something is happening here!!!!! Isolated torrential downpoor on our doorstep! Check dn5 on radar

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...