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10 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Probably slightly less electrical activity tomorrow. I think East Anglia around the middle part of the day (11am- 3pm) would be a good bet, along with the east coast of England 12-6ish. For the rest of the UK I think Northern Ireland may cop some fairly heavy showers along with a zone east Wales across into the Midlands, maybe into southern parts of northern England too; though the main threat here will mostly just be a few heavy downpours rather than intense storms.

    We shall see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

    Oh great.... another storm/convective forecast to build the hopes up before they inevitably get crushed into the dirt....again. :rolleyes:

    OK so I sound like a right whinger but many posters have had more than their fair share this summer...some of us...well its just a few of us now...have seen and heard NOTHING.:whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Nothing's forecast for me tomorrow , I think as CreweCold has mentioned it's more for the Eastern side again! I thought I'd see something today but sadly nothing happened again. Oh well, back to the NSC for me. :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    I have put together a storm risk map for tomorrow. Base map courtesy of map-of-uk.com :)

    See below

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    I have put together a storm risk map for tomorrow. Base map courtesy of map-of-uk.com :)

    See below

    Thank you CreweCold.

    Sadly I'm just under the yellow box so I guess Its just light showers or drizzle for me again lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

    Im just in red i think but once again will be radar watching

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

    I'm not quite in the amber box :D

    I demand the NE give back the storms which should be in the East tease.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    I have drawn up a convective risk chart-these are my thoughts based on GFS 18z data.

    lets take a look at some of the models charts first.

    we have some unstable air around-enough for some action!

    post-11361-0-60494100-1310252993_thumb.g-lifted index 12pm

    post-11361-0-39665100-1310252991_thumb.g-lifted index 6pm

    some pockets of high dew points

    post-11361-0-02722500-1310252989_thumb.g-dew points 3pm

    and some ground heating to bubble up those clouds!

    post-11361-0-09745000-1310252998_thumb.g-surface temps 3pm

    looking a bit bumpy on upper wind flows

    post-11361-0-14897300-1310253004_thumb.g-upper winds

    post-11361-0-14897300-1310253004_thumb.g-upper winds

    post-11361-0-30992100-1310253008_thumb.guppers winds----note areas to the east-interesting

    enough CAPE for some big cumulonimbus to grow..

    post-11361-0-81655000-1310253232_thumb.g-12pm

    post-11361-0-55989800-1310253065_thumb.g-CAPE 3pm

    post-11361-0-58133400-1310253068_thumb.g-CAPE 6pm

    cold upper temps-hail possible

    post-11361-0-71803600-1310253000_thumb.g-upper temps at 500

    The risk boxes

    post-11361-0-99829600-1310253122_thumb.g-my convective risk chart!

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    I must be the only one hoping nothing happens. Still inches of standing water in places and with the rain over the last two days I seriously don't think the Edinburgh area can take anything more without there being more widespread flooding than has happened in the last two days. I would have been more than happy with one storm for the year but this is taking the micky, seriously storms other people deserve to enjoy you!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    I must be the only one hoping nothing happens. Still inches of standing water in places and with the rain over the last two days I seriously don't think the Edinburgh area can take anything more without there being more widespread flooding than has happened in the last two days. I would have been more than happy with one storm for the year but this is taking the micky, seriously storms other people deserve to enjoy you!

    it is a concern that more downpours are on the way for flooded areas, we would like storms but not flooded homes, its that balance of wanting and not wishing for to much, a storm can be severe without flooding though, but areas already had a lot of rains then a mild storm is more of a problem
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    I must be the only one hoping nothing happens. Still inches of standing water in places and with the rain over the last two days I seriously don't think the Edinburgh area can take anything more without there being more widespread flooding than has happened in the last two days. I would have been more than happy with one storm for the year but this is taking the micky, seriously storms other people deserve to enjoy you!

    Sorry you have suffered. A similar thing happened here 2007. A totally out of the blue storm towards the end of the day. Was so so spectacular though! Will never forget it. Here is the link to the blog on it......

    http://images-of-cre...t-downpour.html

    http://images-of-cre...h-flooding.html

    I heard the fire brigade had to be called out to several places, mostly flooded houses I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

    Here is a couple of stills from Fridays storm day

    The line of storm looked like they developed around the Seven valley and travelled to the E

    Reported by Gord in Wordsley, travelling over Blizzard nr Stourbridge and crossing into W Birmingham over Warley Woods

    They then crossed close to the W of the city centre and on to the E of Barr Beacon on to the communication towers at Sutton Coldfield

    Ive tracked the storm on a time lapse and are still trying to process the 5000 odd frames( which is taking the computing power of a small country :wallbash: )

    ....But I`ll get there and share, sometime this week :pardon:

    post-12214-0-80316200-1310257170_thumb.j

    post-12214-0-72056600-1310257213_thumb.j

    Noctilucent clouds(?) while i`m processing makes it easier :drinks:

    post-12214-0-02913600-1310263519_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

    Any one wanna bet Edinburgh gets battered again today? :/ I thought the south was meant to get storms more then the north. haha seems that in recent years the storms have been up north.

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

    Any one wanna bet Edinburgh gets battered again today? :/ I thought the south was meant to get storms more then the north. haha seems that in recent years the storms have been up north.

    Every time I've been to Edinburgh it's been gloriously sunny - perhaps I ought to move there unsure.gif

    Posted some pics of yesterday evening's storm in the Photography forum - feeling quite chuffed that I managed to do that rolleyes.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Any one wanna bet Edinburgh gets battered again today? :/ I thought the south was meant to get storms more then the north. haha seems that in recent years the storms have been up north.

    I think that you are spot on, its only 9 am and the horizon is building already.. Never seen cells like this over Edinburgh in a decade + living here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    Awww crap. The flooding here is bad enough. We've already come within a baw hair of loosing the kitchen...the water still hasn't gone down outside the ground just can't take it any more. We've had a months worth of rain in within 6 hours over the last 2 days. Even a wee shower here is going to flood everything. Time to go up the road and get some sandbags me thinks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Looks like the same area under consideration as yesterday then, with hopefully for those in Scotland, not as much rain:

    post-6667-0-30491100-1310286236.png

    Storm Forecast

    Valid: Sun 10 Jul 2011 06:00 to Mon 11 Jul 2011 06:00 UTC

    Issued: Sun 10 Jul 2011 05:18

    Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

    A level 1 was issued for S/SE-central Europe mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

    A level 1 was issued for the N Maghreb States mainly for large hail.

    SYNOPSIS

    A southwesterly upper level flow has established over most parts of SW to NE Europe between an upper high over the eastern Mediterranean and an upper trough over the northern North Sea. Warm and unstable air is located southeast of the frontal boundary which stretches from W Portugal via central France and E Germany towards the N Baltics. Vertical shear is only in order of 10 - 15 m/s in most places and therefore the potential of severe weather is tied to those regions where instability is highest.

    post-6667-0-43829700-1310286429.png

    Forecaster: Dan

    Last Updated: 00:25 Sunday, 10th July 2011

    Valid: 06:00 Sunday, 10th July 2011 - 05:59 Monday, 11th July 2011

    Areas Affected:

    N and E Scotland, NE England and Yorkshire (lower risk for remainder of Scotland, N England, inland Wales, E Midlands and East Anglia)

    Synopsis:

    On Sunday the country sits underneath an upper trough extending southwestwards from Scandinavia. Rather slack conditions will promote local convergence zones to develop, which will provide the main focus for convective potential.

    Discussion:

    Diurnal heating will allow a few hundred J/kg of CAPE to develop, creating an unstable atmosphere. Given T500's as low as -23C, steepening lapse rates will allow widespread convective showers to develop across northern and eastern Britain once again. With forecast ELT's as low as -40C in places, deep convection is expected with a few thunderstorms likely.

    DLS is rather meagre, with up to 20kts expected along the east coast and limited LLS. Consequently, funnels and tornadoes are unlikely, although cannot be ruled out given the prescence of convergence zones.

    Given the cold upper temperatures and predicted values of CAPE, hail is possible in some of the showers, and an isolated moderate-sized hail event cannot be ruled out, most likely over eastern Scotland. Gusty winds will accompany stronger downdrafts.

    There is likely to be a distinct line of showers developing close the east coast of SE Scotland/E England during the afternoon along a convergence which may cause local flooding in any prolonged, slow moving downpours.

    Over Northern Ireland and Eastern Ireland, unfavourable ELT's as a result of a dry layer in the mid levels precludes even a Watch threat level at this stage. Despite the fact that a few showers, locally heavy, are still expected here, thunder and lightning is unlikely.

    Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset, slowest to decay over Scotland.

    21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

    21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_18_00Z.png

    PGNE14_CL_small.gif

    cape.curr.1200lst.d2.png

    30_24.gif

    30_19.gif

    gfs_layer_eur12.png

    gfs_kili_eur12.png

    MLCAPE higher than yesterday though:

    gfs_spout_eur12.png

    gfs_pw_eur12.png

    Overall I would think less chance of something than yesterday.

    post-6667-0-30491100-1310286236_thumb.pn

    post-6667-0-43829700-1310286429_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Time to go up the road and get some sandbags me thinks.

    Or a diving suit..... Sorry to hear your troubles, Sammie.

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