9 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[sammie]

Thanks for all the support guys. Its brightened up outside so I'm hoping that its done and we're safe now =D

[Stuart]

Last Updated: 19:16 Saturday, 9th July 2011

Valid: 06:00 Sunday, 10th July 2011 - 05:59 Monday, 11th July 2011

Areas Affected:

N and E Scotland, NE Scotland and Yorkshire (lower risk for remainder of Scotland, N England, inland Wales, E Midlands and East Anglia)

Synopsis:

On Sunday the country sits underneath an upper trough extending southwestwards from Scandinavia. Rather slack conditions will promote local convergence zones to develop, which will provide the main focus for convective potential.

Discussion:

Diurnal heating will allow a few hundred J/kg of CAPE to develop, creating an unstable atmosphere. Given T500's as low as -23C, steepening lapse rates will allow widespread convective showers to develop across northern and eastern Britain once again. With forecast ELT's as low as -40C in places, deep convection is expected with a few thunderstorms likely.

DLS is rather meagre, with up to 20kts expected along the east coast and limited LLS. Consequently, funnels and tornadoes are unlikely, although cannot be ruled out given the prescence of convergence zones.

Given the cold upper temperatures and predicted values of CAPE, hail is possible in some of the showers, and an isolated moderate-sized hail event cannot be ruled out, most likely over eastern Scotland. Gusty winds will accompany stronger downdrafts.

There is likely to be a distinct line of showers developing close the east coast of SE Scotland/E England during the afternoon along a convergence which may cause local flooding in any prolonged, slow moving downpours.

Over Northern Ireland and Eastern Ireland, unfavourable ELT's preclude even a Watch threat level at this stage. Despite the fact that a few showers, locally heavy, are still expected here, thunder and lightning is unlikely.

Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset, slowest to decay over Scotland

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/35

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thanks for all the support guys. Its brightened up outside so I'm hoping that its done and we're safe now =D

The radar suggests that the main focus of showers/storms is slowly shifting to the east so you may be alright bar perhaps one or two showers.

Meanwhile the band of heavy showers to the north of Cleadon looks like its western side is about to make a direct hit! I see that tomorrow has a chance of more heavy showers/hail/thunder here in Tyneside tomorrow, though from Monday onwards the winds will start to come in off the North Sea, with the combination of this and higher pressure causing showers to be fewer and more concentrated in the west rather than the east.

[paul m]

Thanks for all the support guys. Its brightened up outside so I'm hoping that its done and we're safe now =D

Glad the worst seems to be over for you and no serious harm or damage happened

[Cookie]

Homes, businesses and cars have been hit by flooding during a heavy downpour across Edinburgh.

Witnesses have been reporting cars floating in deep rivers running down roads in Morningside, Colinton and Oxgangs.

One resident in Balcarres Street said her ground-floor-flat had been ruined following the flash flood at 1440 BST.

Emergency council teams have been deployed in a bid to help firefighters deal with the "huge volumes of water".

A resident in Balcarres Street added that the fish in her pond in her front garden had been washed away in the flood water.

A 31-year-old witness said: "I have never seen anything like it. There was such a huge volume of water in Balcarres Street that buses were trying to plough through it and the wake was causing the cars at the side of the road to crash into each other.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-14085088

[Geordiesnow]

Bit dissapointed in a way as I was in Birtley earlier and when coming back home, I could see the massive CB cloud, saw some cracking CC lightning from it though. It appeared that little to no rain fell from that shower around here but I'm sure if I was back home earlier, I may of seen more lightning from it.

Typically another cell followed on behind but unless I missed it, I saw NO lightning from it and although we had some heavy rain from it, it appeared we missed the worse of the rain aswell.

Tomorrow is the final day of this sunshine and shower spell from around here, lets hope it goes out with a bang and actually get an overhead storm, I'm due one!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Fantastic looking cell to my NW towards the coast, but whaddya know, completely silent. Saw one very distant CG and that was it. Still, it has beautiful structure and is very photogenic

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Fantastic looking cell to my NW towards the coast, but whaddya know, completely silent. Saw one very distant CG and that was it. Still, it has beautiful structure and is very photogenic

It's not silent any more....

5 CG, all within 2 miles, numerous IC and really heavy rain

[paul m]

I was just about to say it looks active on the radar

[sammie]

Glad the worst seems to be over for you and no serious harm or damage happened

Thank God. If we had just had a 1mm we would have been seriously screwed. I feel lucky today!

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office invent looks good for further downpours over us tomorrow. Oddly it looks like tomorrow shall be wetter than today when it looked like it would be the other way round! Wouldnt mind the 3rd storm in 2 days.... :lol:

Edited July 9, 2011 by Blizzards

[Jane Louise]

A new thread opened here for tomorrows potential.

[Andy Bown]

Another one glaciating over now. This one is a bit nearer than the others and there is Cu cong nearer again. Is it building slowly this way? Also another tall tower going up the NNW and again, this is nearer than the anvils behind it.

The energy out there this late in the day is astounding!

It's not late in the day though because peak daytime heating occurs at 4pm-5pm in mid summer, and with the amount of blue sky in your stunning photos it looks

as if there is plenty of sunshine to provide the heating energy to the local atmosphere.

Also, sometimes storms can kick off even more at sunset due to the cloud tops cooling.

The lightning capture was better than I thought!

Stunning photo!

[frogesque]

Just across the Forth at Kirkcaldy all we had was one small shower.

We did have some intense rainfall today with hail, and thunder and lightning mixed in. Seems to be the pattern, almost cloudburst conditions one minute then bright sunshine and rainbows. Tipping down again as I write. At least it's not boring grey NE haar!

[Tom Lynch]

Just wanted to share this photo taken yesterday evening. I watched and waiting but all storms failed to reach Kendal however I was slightly rewarded and managed to take some weather photos.

I spotted this from my lounge window whilst patiently waiting for just one flash or a bang.

Better than nothing I guess.

image a bit small, but was ok on another comp so will redo photo later

Tom

Edited July 9, 2011 by Tom Lynch

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

We've just had a hefty shower pass over; thank goodness not of the same magnitude as those further north. Glad to hear that Sammie's OK.

[Norfolk Sheep]

It's not silent any more....

5 CG, all within 2 miles, numerous IC and really heavy rain

well ain't that a surprise (not!) Managed to chase it all the way to the coast but didn't see diddly squat apart from some glorious rain shafts. Got some corking pics though

[Staffordshire]

Is it me or is there more rain heading for edinbrugh.. And intensifying!

[paul m]

Is it me or is there more rain heading for edinbrugh.. And intensifying!

Looks like it will miss Edinburgh. Looks like Perth will get it soon though

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

well ain't that a surprise (not!) Managed to chase it all the way to the coast but didn't see diddly squat apart from some glorious rain shafts. Got some corking pics though

next time you are chasing in the way to the coast, give me a shout (PM on it's way)

Love to see the pics, one of teh problems of being under the cloud, you don't see much

[ZONE 51]

Taking a look back at some of todays radar snaps..4pm-10pm! and a look at the fronts and troughs at 4pm..(the south coast just out the frame here but missed the showers anyway)

Edited July 9, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm