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shuggee

9 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

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A new thread for Saturday.

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chances for me tonight in east anglia (suffolk)? Out fishing and would love to see something electrical over the next two nights. Unfortuantly cant surf too much as need t preserve my phone battery!

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Well Friday was a complete no show, no go, in the London area but congratulations to those who did experience some good storms today. It looks like settling down now for a few days.

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Lets see today has the same chances as all the others so thats a 0% storm risk even though it says 51% chance

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Lets see today has the same chances as all the others so thats a 0% storm risk even though it says 51% chance

Ah, this old bean again....

The storm chance stuff is purely derived from GFS data. Modelling is not an exact science, otherwise forecasting would be clear-cut. A 51% chance of storms still gives a 49% chance of storms *not* happening. In fact, so many people moan about it, I wonder whether it's worth Netweather actually dropping this.

I am not a meteorologist, you're not a meteorologist, and this I know from your comment. Don't get me wrong, I understand your frustration, because I anticipate 90% of people who visit these storm threads actually want to see storms (myself included!), but such comments are pointless.

The UK is a small nation, yet can yield very changeable conditions dependant on location. A level 1 severe was issued for a lot of southern England by Estofex, which didn't see anything. I'm not going to slate their forecast though, namely because [a] that's within 40km of a point and check out the team of forecasters, with their Masters in meteo and PhDs in various meteorological (namely severe weather) subjects. Take, for example, Johannes Dahl's paper on lightning frequency - it certainly makes interesting reading, and plenty of fascinating equations for your perusal: http://edoc.ub.uni-m...hl_Johannes.pdf

This is by no way anything personal, but such comments really get on my nads.

Cheers,

Simon

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It seems to be kicking off NE and SW off inverness - is it going to meet in the middle? Some prolonged and deep rumbles, but quite a gap from the lightning. At 4.20am the street lights have just come back on in the centre of Inverness and its noticeably darkening and rain is pelting down. The golfers on a 7am resumption wont be impressed if this has kept them up for a while!

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Just dozed off.. came too! Was that a flash? WOOOOOOOOOOWWWW!!!! DEAFENING CRASH BAHG WALLOP!

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Have friends staying with us going to Scottish Open Golf left us at 6.00am but back again 1 hour ago due to thunder, lightning, torrential rain and flooded carparks. Its cancelled till 2.00pm but I suspect it will be just as bad then and will have to be cancelled for the day as I have heared thunder rumbling around us since 6.30am.Lots of forked lightning thunder and torrential rain last night just after 5.30pm so I feel we have had our quota for this year. Not good haymaking wether!!!!!!

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Yesterdays storms over greater Manchester were stronger than planned? However Estifex had it spot on!!

Damage caused to property after tornado at Bolton housing estate

AMY GLENDINNING

JULY 08, 2011

A small tornado has been sighted over a housing estate in Bolton.

The twister was seen above houses in Westhoughton around 3.45pm today.

One house had several roof tiles pulled off while a children’s trampoline was also overturned.

Police confirmed they had received one call from a concerned resident about the weather phenomenon.

A spokesperson for the Met Office said it was not unheard of for such phenomena to be seen during unsettled weather in summer.

Forecaster Charles Powell said: "At this time of year coming into summer with the amount of heat the sun gives off and the unsettled weather, it does give scope for these kinds of things to happen, although it is more common towards the end of summer."

Taken from the Manchester evening news!

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Yesterdays storms over greater Manchester were stronger than planned? However Estifex had it spot on!!

Damage caused to property after tornado at Bolton housing estate

AMY GLENDINNING

JULY 08, 2011

A small tornado has been sighted over a housing estate in Bolton.

The twister was seen above houses in Westhoughton around 3.45pm today.

One house had several roof tiles pulled off while a children’s trampoline was also overturned.

Police confirmed they had received one call from a concerned resident about the weather phenomenon.

A spokesperson for the Met Office said it was not unheard of for such phenomena to be seen during unsettled weather in summer.

Forecaster Charles Powell said: "At this time of year coming into summer with the amount of heat the sun gives off and the unsettled weather, it does give scope for these kinds of things to happen, although it is more common towards the end of summer."

Taken from the Manchester evening news!

Somebody got it on film http://www.bbc.co.uk...hester-14087092 - apologies if this was posted before.

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Absolutely insane period of rain here between 3.30am and 4am , got woken up by it. Dont think ive ever seen rain of that intensity , extremely heavy and easily heard hitting the roof even though the window was shut. Back Garden was completely flooded , although is fine now. Strangely enough no Thunder of Lightning associated with it.

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That was filmed just down the road from where I live, I was at work and missed it wallbash.gif

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I dont see much happing today at all maybe scotland and Northeast england but it will all die later

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Quick check of other sites and info from me:

post-6667-0-07150400-1310201077.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 09 Jul 2011 06:00 to Sun 10 Jul 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 09 Jul 2011 08:35

Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 1 was issued for west-central France, Switzerland, extreme norhtwestern Italy, northwestern Austria and extreme southern Germany, mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A southwesterly flow is present over much of western and central Europe upstream of a ridge extending from Karelia across the Baltic States towards the central Balkans. A diffuse zone of temperature gradient extends from the Baltic Sea across Germany and France into northwest Spain.

post-6667-0-19782200-1310201222.png

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 21:09 Friday, 8th July 2011

Valid: 06:00 Saturday, 9th July 2011 - 05:59 Sunday, 10th July 2011

Areas Affected:

Mainland Scotland, N and E England (lower risk for Northern Ireland, E Ireland, E Wales, Midlands, East Anglia and West Country)

Synopsis:

A slowly filling and north-eastward moving vertically-stacked Low pressure system continues to dominate the weather across the United Kingdom. As the Low moves across the North Sea, the main emphasis of convective potential retreats progressively northwards. The main focus for convection is likely to be along the occluded front.

Discussion:

Diurnal heating will allow several hundred J/kg of CAPE to develop, creating an unstable atmosphere. Given T500's as low as -22C, steepening lapse rates will allow widespread convective showers to develop across northern and eastern Britain. With forecast ELT's as low as -50C in places, deep convection is expected with quite a few thunderstorms likely.

DLS is rather meagre, although greatest across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon with 30kts possible, whilst up to 20kts LLS is expected locally during the afternoon, enhanced along any convergence zones that develop. Consequently, a funnel or weak tornado cannot be ruled out, and current thinking would suggest the most likely location for such an event could be those counties around The Wash.

Given the cold upper temperatures and predicted values of CAPE, hail is likely in many of the showers, and an isolated moderate-sized hail event cannot be ruled out. Gusty winds will accompany stronger downdrafts.

Over Northern Ireland and Eastern Ireland, lower values of CAPE are predicted but nevertheless, numerous showers are expected and a few thunderstorms are also likely, although not as widespread as over Britain.

Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset, slowest to decay over Scotland.

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_30.gif

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_42_00Z.png

PGNE14_CL_small.gif

cape.curr.1500lst.d2.png

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gfs_spout_eur15.png

gfs_pw_eur15.png

This one stands out as a little different to the others:

gfs_stp_eur15.png

So NE England and into the East coast of Scotland later with Dundee to Edinburgh looking to get something? Not sure what that tornado risk is in EA, but keep an eye on things. :good:

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post-6667-0-19782200-1310201222_thumb.pn

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yes I be keeping my eyes on this afternoon becuse sun is out so that will help :drunk:

and the Dew Point 11.1 all reday :drinks:

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yes I be keeping my eyes on this afternoon becuse sun is out so that will help :drunk:

and the Dew Point 11.1 all reday :drinks:

I tihnk you might be in with a chance there Stuart! :clap:

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I tihnk you might be in with a chance there Stuart! :clap:

but the Dew Point was low on friday but well still got a storm :good:

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I'm hoping once again that it's my turn today lol... ( chance would be a fine thing):whistling:

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I see NE England at a high risk of thorms today...whats new? *yawn*

Must admit, the way it's going the NW stormchase team will be forgetting the USA & instead booking flights to Newcastle for next years Great Plains (of the North East) storm season...It's quickly becoming the Mecca of storms!

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Quite a bit of convection taking place already,which is a good sign :D

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Lots of convection already today already had a heavy shower, think today will be very productive for the north east of scotland and england. Good luck today everyone

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