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Paul Sherman

Chase 2011 - Day 40 Discussion

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Another Slight Risk today and this time in Wyoming. We could not make the Colorado risk due to distances involved so will settle for the Risk further North. Good chance of seeing Supercells once again today and you never know with that 6,000ft elevation something might twist a bit.

Paul S

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looks reasonable 2% tornado risk

copy from spc: ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY TODAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL /MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...MODELS AGREE THAT OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

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wish i was there from what i have looked at on google pics fantastic scenery

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Think we found the only hotel with rooms left last night, was touch and go for a while! Early start again and heading for the risk in Eastern Wyoming.

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Looks very overcast where you are currently

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Yeah it is and cold too! was about 8c when I got up this morning :cold: Heading for the clear skies!

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Thats what happens when you head north I suppose

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About to get in front of a decent cell that has gone up in Goshen County, WY. Heading east and the south towards Scottsbluff, NE to intercept :D

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FRom the stream cant quite work out if its burning off or not

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It's all but died now so heading to Scottsbluff, NE for an early tea and night :drinks:

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Started the Day in Bismarck, North Dakota, in a hotel just across the river from Paul and the NW Chase Team. Target today was upslope flow over Wyoming around the Wheatland area – lack of moisture meant that storms would be high based. Got on the road at 07:00am

Eventually got to new mountain storm at Douglas, WY as it was just forming and watched for on hour – eventually this moved off the mountain and died. Another cell formed off the Laramie Range which I then intercepted by Wheatland (Original target). As this cell was showing rotation I opted to blow off the hail feast West of Wheatland and move East in order to observe the updraft region. A wall cloud then formed with a discreet dust plume under the western edge. As I moved off what appeared to be tornado like feature formed but I am not convinced as it could well have been outflow dust or even a gustnado – still it looked quite neat – I would need to see an image or video from another angle in order to convince myself.

Storm croaked out soon after so I stopped to take some time lapse of it falling apart – spending night in North Platte, NE as I want to be in range of a possible play in NE Kansas tomorrow.

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Lol Almost identical chase day and pictures Stu, except we drove down Highway 85. One of our guys has almost the exact same feature as yours but we did not call it a Tornado as we were not sure ourselves, anyway of Zooming the image in.

Think we are going to play the E Wyoming Laramie ridge again today as we need to end the Tour on Saturday and might be able to squeeze SE Colorado tomorrow and Oklahoma on Saturday before flights on Sundayn :drinks:

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Lol Almost identical chase day and pictures Stu, except we drove down Highway 85. One of our guys has almost the exact same feature as yours but we did not call it a Tornado as we were not sure ourselves, anyway of Zooming the image in.

Think we are going to play the E Wyoming Laramie ridge again today as we need to end the Tour on Saturday and might be able to squeeze SE Colorado tomorrow and Oklahoma on Saturday before flights on Sundayn :drinks:

can not believe its nearly all over what am i going to track on GRL3 and watch on gps and cam now, hope you snag another Tornado before home cray.gif

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