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Paul Sherman

Chase 2011 - Day 39 Discussion

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Stayed last night in Belle Fourche (Which means Beautiful Fork) and we certainly got some of those last night with an active storm at around 11pm :clap:

Today sees us northwards into North Dakota and then east along I-94 Towards the eastern side of that state and the Minnesota border for what we hope will be Supercells with 4,000jkg of Cape to play with and a Triple Point Low and Warm Front Set-Up.

Going to go into this not expecting to see anything as the last 10 days has had me baffled about the Weather over here. :wacko:

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Going to go into this not expecting to see anything as the last 10 days has had me baffled about the Weather over here. :wacko:

I've not followed the patterns and conditions for as anywhere near as long as you have Paul, but I am surprised at the relatively high intensity of the outbreaks, yet there seem to be longer gaps in between and the action doesn't seem to be in the usual places - any thoughts?

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Good luck guys. Lets hope next year is much better as i'm coming out there on tour 4!

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Hi Robin

This Summer like ridge has been the real killer the last 10 days, Temperature records being smashed daily at the moment with 107f in Dodge City the other day for instance. Other than that just bad luck with timings, missed the Outbreak of the century by 1 day and it looks like June 16th to June 30th is going to go back into a very active pattern with more Outbreaks for the Plains and Northern Plains, just the way it goes. Can only recall the 24th May this year as the only real Chase day of any note, I judge these on when my Video camera comes out and it has only been on the Suction Mount a few times :nonono:

As lewis says 2012 will probably end up favouring May and June again in a proper season :drinks:

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Early start today with a 400+ mile drive to get in to position :wacko: Heading to Bismarck, ND for lunch.

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Would suggest Velley City ND between Jamestown and Fargo ND as the most likely zone for supercell development this afternoon and evening (back to CDT). This set-up looks good to me and may be upgraded to moderate risk. This activity will develop near strong frontal boundary on north flank of low moving out of SD towards central MN overnight. Action is likely to move southeast over time into southwest MN and then south into Iowa for Wednesday's storm chase opportunity. Expect rapid back-building from initial cells and peak around 22z to 00z.

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Heading towards the cell south eat of Bismarck, ND. Looking good on radar, should be at it in the next 20 minutes or so :)

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Caught the first cell and got some good structure along with a quick but intense core punch :D Now heading back towards Bismarck for the second in line!

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Great view of the storm on the livestream shilouetted against the sun, well until some hillbilly turns up in his pick up in the way :lol:

I see there's a tornado warning on one of the cells over south central North Dakota atm, I think the one the team are watching:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND

707 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN KIDDER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF NAPOLEON OR 45

MILES EAST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KIDDER AND NORTHERN

LOGAN COUNTIES.

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Just one question for the team -- have you killed a thousand moths yet?

As an aid to the reader, this is what you should add in your mind to the video:

-- faint (usually) smell of manure

-- incessant chorus of cicadas

-- cottonwood pollen (looks like the hair from a white cat) drifting on the breeze

-- and making you sneeze :drinks:

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Well that was fun! 2 Supercells and some great structure at last. Time for food in Jamestown and then going to do a few miles back west ready for tomorrows risk in Wyoming :D

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As Arron says turned out great today. Binned the Minnesota risk as I did not think the Cap would break and had a chase target of Jamestown (North Dakota). By the early evening there was 3 Discrete Low topped Supercells near to Bishmark moving eastwards. Got onto the first SW Of Jamestown which displayed some Supercell Characteristics, core punched this and then awaited an absolutely beautiful Tornado Warned Classic Supercell, the features were easy to pick out with inflow and beavers Tail. The rotation at one point was pretty violent under the wall cloud but just could not get it done. We all have some great pictures.

Paul S

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