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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather

 

Climate scientists and meteorologists are meeting next week to debate the causes of UK's disappointing weather in recent years Washout summers. Flash floods. Freezing winters. Snow in May. Droughts. There is a growing sense that something is happening to our weather. But is it simply down to natural variability, or is climate change to blame? To try to answer the question the Met Office is hosting an unprecedented meeting of climate scientists and meteorologists next week to debate the possible causes of the UK's "disappointing" weather over recent years, the Guardian has learned. Tuesday's meeting at the forecaster's HQ in Exeter is being convened in response to this year's cool spring, which, according to official records, was the coldest in 50 years.

 

The one-day gathering will be led by Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre and professor of meteorology at the University of Reading, and will include up to 20 experts from the UK's leading climate research institutions. The "roundtable workshop" will attempt to outline the "dynamical drivers of the cold spring of 2013", but attendees are expected also to debate the "disappointing summers of the last seven years". Official records show that above-average temperatures in summer last occurred in 2006, a season that had above-average sunshine hours, and below-average rainfall. The only summer since then to give us average conditions nationally was in 2010.

The meeting will also discuss the washout summer of 2012 and the freezing winter of 2010-11. The Met Office said it had never held a formal meeting in this way to discuss possible causes behind the UK's unusual weather of recent years.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/13/met-office-uk-bad-weather-cause

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

And what do folk think they will find?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

My guess would be melting sea ice...and, to a lesser extent, Solar silence.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks Pete, this is what I thought?

 

Though impossible to acribe AGW as a 'cause' for individual weather events the impacts of the changes must have impact within the system to some lesser, or greater , degree (as do all the other 'natural' drivers)

 

Methinks the results of the natter will be 'a bit off both'.......

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

My guess would be melting sea ice...and, to a lesser extent, Solar silence.

 

I think the outcome want be far off...

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Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset

ABNS, (PM you beat me to it) - I agree. Those looking at historic records of solar cycles predicted that 2008 onwards would be cooler and so far they appear to be spot on. What is more challenging is to ascertain why, the mechanisms and just how they interact to produce this effect. Still and awful lot of research to do - lets hope that vanity and politics can be kept out of the way when Met Office meet up so that genuine science can prevail.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wild Weather: Met Office Calls Urgent Talks

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1103633/wild-weather-met-office-calls-urgent-talks

 

Britain's weather has now got so bad even the Met Office is worried: Forecasters to hold meeting over floods, droughts and even snow in May

  • Met Office has called extreme weather meeting for next week
  • Experts to discuss if it is result of climate change or just typically British
  • Meeting sparked after UK suffered its coldest spring for 50 years 
  • 'We have seen a run of unusual seasons in the UK,' Met Office says

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Siberia: Scorching Sun To Snow Storm In A Day

 

Just one day after basking in temperatures of 30C, residents of a Siberian town were shocked to suddenly find themselves in the middle of a snow storm. Nadym had been enjoying days of tropical weather before people were quickly forced to change their t-shirts and shorts for coats and scarves. Sub-zero conditions are normal for the region through the long winter but are rare for June, when the sun gives people a brief but hot summer. Amateur footage filmed in the town showed snow pouring down and covering streets, cars and parks - with people wrapped up and battling with the bitter cold. Temperatures can drop as low as -50C in a Siberian winter, with the town of Oymyakon often recording the lowest numbers.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1103914/siberia-scorching-sun-to-snow-storm-in-a-day

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Is this the sight of the summer? Heavy downpours leave music festivals and sports events wet and muddy

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Weather online's monthly outlook

 

Valid from 15/06 to 15/07 2013
Some fine spells

Issued: Sunday 16th June 2013
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Some fine spells but rain to contend with too

Changeable weather conditions are expected through the forecast period, but the good news is there will neither be a washout, nor do we expect a prolonged heatwave.

There will be periods when the weather is more disturbed, notably in the coming week, and again mid-July. sunshine.

Periods of fine weather look likely at the end of June and into the early part of July, and then again at the very end of the forecast, probably after 14th.

Confidence is reasonably high as forecast models have been consistent with these predictions.

*........22/06/13*

Low pressure is going to be teasing the country through this week and so unsettled conditions prevail. However, where is unsettled and where is more settled will vary through the week. The early part of the week probably best through more northern parts of England and Scotland. Rain in more southern areas of Wales and England. By mid to late week this reverses with the north seeing windier and more unsettled weather, the south enjoying more settled conditions. Most rainfall affecting the west of Scotland and northwestern parts of England and Ireland.

*23/06/13 to 29/06/13*

It is during this period that changes may start to occur. Through the early part of the week conditions may be staying fairly unsettled with a risk of rain, showers and some brisk winds. We do not expect a washout with most of the rain only light to moderate, and most through more northern and western areas. Pressure will be building from the south easterly in the week and this will bring more settled weather. This is going to be edging northwards with many areas then dry and increasingly sunny. It will be feeling warmer too. Rain may continues to affect northern and western Scotland at times, although the east and south will be drier. Whilst not hot, temperatures in the south should be turning warmer.

*30/06/13......06/07/13*

Pressure may stay fairly high through this period over most of the UK and Ireland, This should lead to mainly fair conditions with some good spells of sunshine. Remaining warm too, and perhaps even becoming hot through central and southern areas. Some fog may drift onto eastern coasts. Later in the week there is the threat of some thundery rain moving into southern parts of England, this then edging northwards, introducing more changeable conditions. However, most of the northern 2/3rds of the country stay dry.

*07/07/13......13/07/13*

A steady breakdown may take place through this week. The breakdown may be a little hit-and-miss, but eventually all areas are likely to see some rain. This will be thundery in the south. The rain should clear eastwards to be replaced by a cooler, more disturbed, westerly airflow. This will bring with it a mix of sunshine and showers. All areas are likely to see these from mid-week.

*14/07/13......20/07/13*

The more changeable of conditions are set to continue. Westerly winds bring sunshine and showers, but the threat of some more persistent rain at times in the north and west. Pressure may build to the south again later in the week with drier weather then spreading back north. England and Wales as well as southern Ireland could be dry, sunny and warmer by the end of the week. Probably feeling milder too.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20130615

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC weather for the week ahead with Ben Rich

 

Mostly Dry

 

Turning warm in the south

 

Risk of thundery showers

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Get your gloves and scarves out people - tomorrow's daily express headline Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tropical heatwave to hit UK this week: Temperatures will reach a sweltering 90F

 

BRITAIN is set to bake this week as temperatures soar at last – hitting a peak of 90F. But most areas face a sticky and humid spell rather than a glorious burst of summer sunshine. While it will be hottest in the South, forecasters warned last night that the whole country is braced for a “severe and unpleasant†heatwave which will trigger violent “tropical thunderstormsâ€. Forecaster Jonathan Powell said: “We are expecting a sharp and severe burst of heat which is going to be very oppressive and quite unpleasant.†He predicted the “unusual and dramatic heat spike†would be short lived, with temperatures plunging again by next weekend.

Mr Powell, of Vantage Weather Services, said parts of the South will reach 90F (32C) by Wednesday – and some places may get even hotter as a last of scorching Mediterranean air sweeps in from Spain and the Continent. “Rather than summery sunshine we are looking at intense heat which, although short-lived, will make it very muggy,†he said.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/408109/Tropical-heatwave-to-hit-UK-this-week-Temperatures-will-reach-a-sweltering-90F

 

BRITS BRACE THEMSELVES FOR COLDEST SUMMER IN OVER A DECADE

 

SUN-STARVED Brits are bracing themselves for the coldest summer in 12 years. And sports fans and festival-goers are being told to prepare for downpours. Temperatures in southern England struggled to get above an unseasonably chilly 14C yesterday. A single day of warm weather on Wednesday will give way to heavy rain by the time we hit the longest day on Friday, with more drenchings on the way over the next few months. Wimbledon-bound sports fans and revellers heading for Glastonbury have been warned of heavy downpours. Showers are also expected at Royal Ascot tomorrow. Met Office forecaster Michael Lawrence said last night: “Changeable weather is expected over the next fortnight and the first part of July.

 

 

“Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts.†Rain will ease over the next few days, with a warm front from Europe making it brighter and a high of 24C by Wednesday.

But a Weather Channel spokesman said: “The UK will become quite a bit cooler and fresher by the second half of the week.†A spokesman for British Weather Services warned those heading to Glastonbury next week not to plan for sunshine. He said: “For Glastonbury, think coats and wellies rather than sun hats and sun block.

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/320857/Brits-brace-themselves-for-coldest-summer-in-over-a-decade/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Britain is on the verge of a tropical heatwave this week and will have its hottest day of the year 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
UK Weather: Hottest Days Of Summer So Far

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1105133/uk-weather-hottest-days-of-summer-so-far

 

Could climate change already be upon us? Met Office to analyse Britain's unpredictable weather patterns

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/could-climate-change-already-be-upon-us-met-office-to-analyse-britains-unpredictable-weather-patterns-8663024.html

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

It's going to get steamy! Temperatures to hit 30C on hottest day of the year but watch out for heavy thunderstorms and high humidity

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Hot and muggy for now but we're in for a DECADE of wet summers

 

MAKE the most of today's burst of scorching sunshine because forecasters fear Britain is in for at least 10 years of soggy summers.  In fact, if we are really unlucky the cycle of wet summers we're currently in could last for 20 years.

It started back in 2007 and should end "in the next five to 10 years", according to meteorology Professor Stephen Belcher of the University of Reading. Six out of the last seven UK summers have had above average rainfall, with 2010 being the exception. Similar runs of wet summers occurred in the 1880s and the 1950s.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/408615/Hot-and-muggy-for-now-but-we-re-in-for-a-DECADE-of-wet-summers

 

WASHOUT SUMMERS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS

 

IF you were hoping that this year's non-summer was just a one-off, you might want to stop reading now. Weather experts reckon we could be facing washout summer for the next TEN YEARS, blaming it all on parts of the Atlantic getting warmer. The group of climate bods met up yesterday after the sun is failing to rear it's head for long periods over the past six years. Winters have also been overly harsh, with freezing cold temperatures hitting the country for months. One expert, Professor Stephen Belcher said: "I would definitely suggest there is a higher probability of wet summers." In fact, he suggested that the cycle may last as long as ten or even 20 years. However, before you start applying to move to Australia, the cycle may end sooner than that. Things may change within five years rather than two decades. Best get ready to bust out the barbie in 2018 then!

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/321316/Washout-summers-predicted-for-the-next-TEN-YEARS/

 

Get ready for the hottest day of the year with temperatures set to top 27C but watch out for thundery showers

 
We could be in the grip of a DECADE of wet summers say scientists at Met Office climate summit

 

 
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

Who predicted that, then?

"“Based on what we discussed today, that would definitely suggest there’s a higher probability of wet summers,†said Dr Stephen Belcher, head of the Hadley Centre

 

and

 

“Up to ten years from now the cycle could persist and therefore there is a higher possibility of wet summers,†he added.

 

Which for a journalist translates to "WASHOUT SUMMERS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS".

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

"“Based on what we discussed today, that would definitely suggest there’s a higher probability of wet summers,†said Dr Stephen Belcher, head of the Hadley Centre

 

and

 

“Up to ten years from now the cycle could persist and therefore there is a higher possibility of wet summers,†he added.

 

Which for a journalist translates to "WASHOUT SUMMERS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS".

 

Great, another exaggerated headline that will be used for Met Office bashing during the next decent summer!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Related to above. There nothing that new about the recent discussion.

 

Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s

European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other contributions, for example, from the tropical Pacific Ocean and the stratosphere7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Here we analyse four data sets derived from observations to show that, during the 1990s, there was a substantial shift in European climate towards a pattern characterized by anomalously wet summers in northern Europe, and hot, dry, summers in southern Europe, with related shifts in spring and autumn. These changes in climate coincided with a substantial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean13, towards a state last seen in the 1950s. The patterns of European climate change in the 1990s are consistent with earlier changes attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean4, 6 and provide compelling evidence that the Atlantic Ocean was the key driver. Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm.

 

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n11/abs/ngeo1595.html

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sticky Britain: Thunderstorms and sweltering humidity as temperatures top 26C on the hottest day of the year

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