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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Now watch out for the freezing snow

http://beta.dailyexp...e-freezing-snow

BRITS SHOW TRUE GRIT

http://www.dailystar...SHOW-TRUE-GRIT/

Treacherous black ice causes travel chaos across the country as forecasters predict more snow this afternoon… and warn that Britain could stay white for TWO WEEKS

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2IQohFT3o

More snow on way as Britain's big freeze tightens its grip

http://www.mirror.co...-on-way-1544961

Flights from Heathrow cancelled as snow brings travel woes

http://www.telegraph...ravel-woes.html

Going snowhere Britain slides to a halt as blizzards sweep the country

Meanwhile in Oz... it's 46°C (or 115°F)

http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz2IQqg9YCi

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Eccles, Greater manchester.
  • Location: Eccles, Greater manchester.

Well the media have gone snow crazy now and this alone is annoying but coupled with the fact that there was 2cm here yesterday which has all but vanished now ...well,I'm a bit sck of it....yesterday a news 24 special on bbc1 about the snow,absolutely ridiculous.

Edited by greybing
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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
"Behind their thick veneer of arrogant 'expertise' they are clueless"

That article is quite insulting to everyone who works at the Met Office - he is basically saying all the knowledge they have doesn't mean a thing. I don't see him providing any of the services that the Met Office provides on day to day basis? The only service he provides is what I interpret as guessing, because he doesn't explain thoroughly why he predicts what he does.

That man needs a massive slap. Although I fully understand he is fully in it for the £££, media headlines and charging for his forecasts etc. Sorry had to get off my chest.

Anyway, Sunday evening looks good for us wrt snow! Posted Image

Edited by Chris D
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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk

http://twitpic.com/bvms3x/full

Is anyone else shocked by this feature? Just said this in the regional thread:

Our favourite forecaster Piers Corbyn says, "Behind their thick veneer of arrogant 'expertise' they are clueless" - referring to the MetO.

That article is quite insulting to everyone who works at the Met Office - he is basically saying all the knowledge they have doesn't mean a thing. I don't see him providing any of the services that the Met Office provides on day to day basis? The only service he provides is what I interpret as guessing, because he doesn't explain thoroughly why he predicts what he does.

That man needs a massive slap. Although I fully understand he is fully in it for the £££, media headlines and charging for his forecasts etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

"Behind their thick veneer of arrogant 'expertise' they are clueless"

That article is quite insulting to everyone who works at the Met Office - he is basically saying all the knowledge they have doesn't mean a thing. I don't see him providing any of the services that the Met Office provides on day to day basis? The only service he provides is what I interpret as guessing, because he doesn't explain thoroughly why he predicts what he does.

That man needs a massive slap. Although I fully understand he is fully in it for the £££, media headlines and charging for his forecasts etc. Sorry had to get off my chest.

Anyway, Sunday evening looks good for us wrt snow! Posted Image

And the MetO does it all for nothing out of the goodness of their hearts??? There are things called taxes. Also if the models are so infallible, why have people working there at all? Why not just get a computer print out?

Piers Corbyn is an astrophysicist who makes a very good commercial living out of predicting weather. He has his own system which has an 80% hit rate, and used to make a few bob with the bookies, until he won too often so now they won't take his bets. Why should he explain how it works? He makes nowhere near what John Hurst, head of the MetO gets… earns more than the Prime Minister, bonuses, gold plated pensions etc.

http://www.telegraph...c-pay-rise.html

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Typical Corbyn: a thick veneer over absolutely bugger all!

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk

And the MetO does it all for nothing out of the goodness of their hearts??? There are things called taxes. Also if the models are so infallible, why have people working there at all? Why not just get a computer print out?

Piers Corbyn is an astrophysicist who makes a very good commercial living out of predicting weather. He has his own system which has an 80% hit rate, and used to make a few bob with the bookies, until he won too often so now they won't take his bets. Why should he explain how it works? He makes nowhere near what John Hurst, head of the MetO gets… earns more than the Prime Minister, bonuses, gold plated pensions etc.

http://www.telegraph...c-pay-rise.html

Yes well wrt your last point about the head of the Met O, that is the same as all public services. The Meteorologists there are not really on that much at all (start on ~20k, rise up to ~26k after training, only while very experienced you go up to over 30k if you have a management role). The pay exponentially increases as you go up the ranks though, so to speak. Not right really, but you would have to say that all govt owned agencies/businesses have similar pay structures.

Also, models are programmed with the laws that we as humans have discovered, and the output is based on what we have observed. Calculations are based on these laws and so a forecast is created. There are quite a few reasons why the models are sometimes unreliable or inaccurate; ranging from the lack of sea and some land observations to the chaos theory. A human is still needed to interpret the output.

I get the impression what Piers does is throw out all the laws that we have and say, "actually I'm right, even though I won't say how I am right, or indeed explain how I have proved am right except for getting it right 5 or 6 out of 10 times". (And that's a bit generous)

He may well be an astrophysicist, but a good scientist will explain how they are wrong/right and base their method on the laws (i.e. thermodynamic laws etc) that we have learnt in the past.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, fwiw, what has being an astrophysicist got to do with meteorology? If 'magnetic filaments' cannot themselves be predicted, with any accuracy, what possible use can they have when one purports to be able predict the weather? The mind boggles!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Yes well wrt your last point about the head of the Met O, that is the same as all public services. The Meteorologists there are not really on that much at all (start on ~20k, rise up to ~26k after training, only while very experienced you go up to over 30k if you have a management role). The pay exponentially increases as you go up the ranks though, so to speak. Not right really, but you would have to say that all govt owned agencies/businesses have similar pay structures.

Also, models are programmed with the laws that we as humans have discovered, and the output is based on what we have observed. Calculations are based on these laws and so a forecast is created. There are quite a few reasons why the models are sometimes unreliable or inaccurate; ranging from the lack of sea and some land observations to the chaos theory. A human is still needed to interpret the output.

I get the impression what Piers does is throw out all the laws that we have and say, "actually I'm right, even though I won't say how I am right, or indeed explain how I have proved am right except for getting it right 5 or 6 out of 10 times". (And that's a bit generous)

He may well be an astrophysicist, but a good scientist will explain how they are wrong/right and base their method on the laws (i.e. thermodynamic laws etc) that we have learnt in the past.

If he is publicly funded millions from the govt I think he would reveal all. It is a bit annoying agreed but I can also understand his reasons.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh, I'm quite sure he has his reasons, Fred...Can you link to any of his peer-reviewed astrophysics papers, please?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Thanks Gav !

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good to know that I can expect 6cm to fall between now and 3pm...It's not doing a thing!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Oh, I'm quite sure he has his reasons, Fred...Can you link to any of his peer-reviewed astrophysics papers, please?

What would they prove, that his forecasts would be any better or worse? He has beaten MetO and NW forecast hands down by a country mile on this episode and in December, remember the famous GP quote ''Its coming''? It came alright, unfortunately not from the east.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Unfortunately, his claims are nowhere near matched by his performance. But, as neither he nor anyone else, can demonstrate how unpredictable magnetic filaments can be used to make useful weather-forecasting tools, I'll continue to give all such forms of occultism a wide berth...

Anyway: I see a lucky 7, some prominences, and I see snow. No, wait a minute, it was only a Solar Sausage...Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

Piers Corbyn is an astrophysicist who makes a very good commercial living out of predicting weather.

Are you sure about that?

He has his own system which has an 80% hit rate

I thought it was 85%? Either way, can we see some proof please?

and used to make a few bob with the bookies, until he won too often so now they won't take his bets.

I suspect this is nonsense, but again proof would be gladly accepted.

Why should he explain how it works? He makes nowhere near what John Hurst, head of the MetO gets… earns more than the Prime Minister, bonuses, gold plated pensions etc.

Sigh...

What would they prove, that his forecasts would be any better or worse? He has beaten MetO and NW forecast hands down by a country mile on this episode and in December, remember the famous GP quote ''Its coming''? It came alright, unfortunately not from the east.

BFTP

BFTP

Without wishing to speak out of turn, you're without doubt a bright chap, so surely you can see through the bluster?

With the noise that's being made by PC and his followers at moment it strikes me that he's won the lottery rather than this being a day to day occurence. As an example, the 12-16th forecast was bobbins, as was the late december forecast*.

Can't have it both ways I'm afraid.

* by no means exclusive, but I can't be bothered to drag out the archives. If PC won't, why should I?

Edited by jtay
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Are you sure about that?

I thought it was 85%? Either way, can we see some proof please?

I suspect this is nonsense, but again proof would be gladly accepted.

Sigh...

BFTP

Without wishing to speak out of turn, you're without doubt a bright chap, so surely you can see through the bluster?

With the noise that's being made by PC and his followers at moment it strikes me that he's won the lottery rather than this being a day to day occurence. As an example, the 12-16th forecast was bobbins, as was the late december forecast*.

Can't have it both ways I'm afraid.

* by no means exclusive, but I can't be bothered to drag out the archives. If PC won't, why should I?

Like I thought I have clearly said elsewhere, no one has got this winter spot on, but winning the lottery is better than not? I do buy into solar cycles etc having pattern shifts on our climate, whether he has it right/unlocked the secret?....another matter

BFTP

Unfortunately, his claims are nowhere near matched by his performance. But, as neither he nor anyone else, can demonstrate how unpredictable magnetic filaments can be used to make useful weather-forecasting tools, I'll continue to give all such forms of occultism a wide berth...

Anyway: I see a lucky 7, some prominences, and I see snow. No, wait a minute, it was only a Solar Sausage...Posted Image

Like wise all this MJO, GWO etc etc Pete.....it hasn't worked this winter...pure and simple

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Next time you hear someone complaining about us receiving 3 inches of snow, show them this!

http://rt.com/news/w...ia-weather-275/

Impressive pictures from Norilsk though shows the effects of drifting, the official snow depths haven't been that deep, having reached 34cm on 12/01.

Two days later it only measured 14cm but with temperatures only reaching a maximum of -16.3°C it clearly wasn't melting, and the weather reports were of blowing snow for pretty much the whole time. Should imagine that the wind easily picks up the snow from hundreds of square miles of bleak Arctic tundra and deposit it where the winds fall light over the built up areas of town.

Norilsk weather reports from Ogimet - http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=23078&ano=2013&mes=1&day=21&hora=6&min=0&ndays=30

Edited by Interitus
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Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age

Boris Johnson in the Telegraph today:

" I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming†is obviously to strain the language. I see from the BBC website that there are scientists who say that “global warming†is indeed the cause of the cold and snowy winters we seem to be having."

"As a species, we human beings have become so blind with conceit and self-love that we genuinely believe that the fate of the planet is in our hands"

"Now Piers has a very good record of forecasting the weather. He has been bang on about these cold winters. Like JMW Turner and the Aztecs he thinks we should be paying more attention to the Sun. According to Piers, global temperature depends not on concentrations of CO2 but on the mood of our celestial orb."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/9814618/Its-snowing-and-it-really-feels-like-the-start-of-a-mini-ice-age.html

Now most of us too have now also come to the conclussion that the CO2 theory has been overplayed and still is simply; just a theory.

Edited by Village
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Like wise all this MJO, GWO etc etc Pete.....it hasn't worked this winter...pure and simple

BFTP

Which is precisely why refuse to be a fully paid-up member of anyone's fan club, Fred...

And, anyway, Piers's prognostications - to me at least - seem to have absolutely sod-all to do with any known branch of astrophysics...And he ain't the only one who's studied the subject???

If Solar weather-influences are - as he seems to proclaim - predictable, why do we need an array of satellites?

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Impressive pictures from Norilsk though shows the effects of drifting, the official snow depths haven't been that deep, having reached 34cm on 12/01.

Two days later it only measured 14cm but with temperatures only reaching a maximum of -16.3°C it clearly wasn't melting, and the weather reports were of blowing snow for pretty much the whole time. Should imagine that the wind easily picks up the snow from hundreds of square miles of bleak Arctic tundra and deposit it where the winds fall light over the built up areas of town.

Norilsk weather reports from Ogimet - http://www.ogimet.co...&min=0&ndays=30

No, it does not melt at those temperatures but it does sublimate.

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I was quite impressed by the forecaster, two or three nights ago on the TV, who gave us a small insight into Sudden Stratospheric Warming and how it can affect the normal pattern of atmospheric circulation and the jet streams and although this idea is still in its infancy the cause and effect of this particular cold spell was explained, so I tend to give it some weight.

This leads me on to wonder what does cause this sudden warming? - it can't be the direct action of the sun because those polar regions are in darkness 24/7, though even with the air as this as it is at those altitudes it must take quite a lot of energy, so if it is not coming directly from the sun where does it come from?

The only thing I can think of off the top of my head is that it could be an interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and incoming radiation from space, which would include the sun. We know that there is some interaction there because it gives rise to the Aurora Bolearis.

PC studies the sun's cycles and applies these to the effect on long range weather forecasting, sometimes he is right and sometimes not - Joe laminate floori during his tenure with Accuweather studied 'cycles' not the Lance Armstrong type and came to the conclusion that we were due for a period of colder winters over the next 20 years or so. Since he said this, the winters in the UK and Europe appear to have been somewhat colder with more snow incidents, some of which have been very unusual, such as snow in the south of the UK at the end of October, which before the last few years I can never recall happening previously during my lifetime.

The traditional models work out to a certain extent but after a few days they can become inaccurate and lead to misleading forecasts. The chaos theory can be blamed for this to a fairly large extent but it does seem to me that they are working on less than full information, so inaccuracies are bound to happen.

What it requires, in my view, is a good open study of all these different theories, though PC does play his cards close to his chest but in the interests of the furtherence of scientific knowledge he should make his methods open to the rest of the scientific community for study, otherwise he remains saddled with the reputation of a charlaton selling snake oil as a cure all for everything.

With such further research, including the effect of possible solar cycles etc, it is likely that the accuracy of long range weather forecasting could be improved and a better understanding of the mechanisms of how the weather does what it does can be reached.

EDIT - I think this is in the wrong section, so I will move it.

Edited by mike Meehan
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