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and so do you

Hence the everyone Geoff......dear me

BFTP

Indeed, Fred...the difference being that science works by making falsifiable predictions. And, for that to happen, 'forecasters' need to be open about their methods...There's nowt wrong with getting things wrong (or right) but repeatability and falsifiability, and not mystery, are the essence of good science...

Of course, however, with weather forecasting, getting it right more-often-than-not would be a good start?

Yes indeed Pete, hence the editing adding clearly advancements are being made

BFTP

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With state of the art technology and the latest info available at the flick of a switch I fail to see why the public should have to put up with out of date forecasts. In this fast moving situation its

I've only gone and done it. This went to the Press Complaints Commission this morning....         1i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including

Some more images from London this morning  

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A media storm: Why the way we talk about the weather has changed forever

Predicting the weather is no longer a mug’s game - it’s a social one. David Kenny, the king of US weather forecasts talks to Geoffrey Macnab.

Superstorm Sandy is likely to be looked back at as the first major storm to hit the United States in the age of social media.

What has become apparent this week – as roofs are blown off houses, gigantic cranes are split apart and flooding hits New York – is that Twitter and Facebook, tablets and mobile devices, are helping to save lives. It is also clear that the level of meteorological information we now all have at our fingertips is infinitely more sophisticated than it has ever been before. This is the point of view pushed this week by David Kenny, chairman and chief executive of The Weather Company, which owns The Weather Channel. "We can't stop it," he says of freak weather, "but we can certainly get people to move more quickly."

With just a touch of smugness, Kenny explains that The Weather Company saw superstorm Sandy coming. It's all very well being able to communicate with more than 100 million Americans, but you need to make sure that you're not having any Michael Fish moments. (The BBC weatherman never quite lived down his blithe assurance to the nation 25 years ago that we didn't need to worry about storms a few hours before the worst gales in centuries hit the South of England.) "The story begins a week ago," Kenny says. The Weather Company's army of forecasters knew by then that the perfect storm was a very real possibility. They started issuing their first warnings. "By Friday, it was pretty clear we were right."

In 1987, the British public was relying primarily on BBC and ITV broadcasts about the "Great Storm". New Yorkers in 2012 have far more choice. Old media still plays its part. The flagship Weather Channel "goes into every home in America", Kenny says proudly. "We have many ways to get the message out." In the run up to Sandy, downloads of The Weather Company's apps on mobile devices shot up sharply. "People are preparing that, if they lose power, this is the way that they are going to be able to stay in touch."

During the superstrom, cable and satellite companies have agreed to allow The Weather Channel to be "live streamed" to mobile devices. Meanwhile, the firm has collaborated with Facebook on "My Friend's Weather", a service that allows friends and family affected by "breaking weather news" to see who's at risk and to alert them to the danger. Through Google, The Weather Channel's TV coverage has been available directly on YouTube. There are also the company's own weather sites, weather.com and weather underground. Meanwhile, Weather Channel savants are tweeting incessantly, warning America about every little quirk of the storm.

You can't blame Kenny for using Sandy to thrust weather forecasting in the digital era right in our faces. As he acknowledges, a big storm like this is just what is needed to put the company in the spotlight. The business, owned by NBC Universal and private-equity groups Bain Capital (co-founded by Mitt Romney and The Blackstone Group), isn't a charity bringing Americans forecasts out of a sense of public service. Then again, Kenny says the number of tornado-related deaths has "fallen precipitously" in the last two years. Weather forecasting saves lives – and it doesn't seem like a business you'd go into out of a cut-throat desire to make money.

Grumbling about the weather is one of Britain's favourite pastimes. Weather affects everyone. Alongside your health and your favourite football team, it's a staple of daily conversations the world over. Certain celebrities are known to be weather obsessives. (It's no surprise that Woody Allen frets about the elements and is constantly checking global forecasts.)

For neurotics and for those who simply like to have a good chat about high pressure, low pressure and precipitation, these are golden years. We have more raw data about the weather at our fingertips than at any other time in human history. "I don't know if it's a change in the human need but I do see a greater level of engagement in weather stories," Kenny says. Weather, Kenny says, is one of the most popular categories on smart phones. Half of all owners of smart phones check the weather on it every day. "The smart phone is also very connected with social networks which means that people are talking about the weather more and sharing it with each other. I think that conversation just naturally leads to more interest." The public is growing more aware of climate change. This, in turn, stimulates more conversation about weather patterns.

Of course, there is a huge difference between low-level murmuring on whether the sun is going to shine this weekend and the reaction to a huge storm like Superstorm Sandy convulsing the East Coast of the US on the eve of a presidential election.

Hurricane Sandy is bound to have an impact on everything from commerce to transportation, from insurance to the way people vote – or even if they're able to vote at all. The difference now is that the Americans are better prepared. But Kenny doesn't rub his hands with glee whenever a storm like Sandy comes along: "It's mixed feelings. There will be suffering from this. No one likes to see people lose their homes and businesses and communities facing real hardship. On the other hand, we live for the challenge of always having the best forecast… we feel tested and we feel we are rising well to the occasion."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/online/a-media-storm-why-the-way-we-talk-about-the-weather-has-changed-forever-8269766.html

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UK FACES ICY BLAST AS SANDY BLOWS IN SNOW

HURRICANE Sandy is set to trigger an Arctic blast in Britain this weekend, bringing bitter gales and snow.

The superstorm has caused a shift in weather systems, allowing freezing air from the North Pole to flood in.

The Met Office warned Scotland will get snow flurries today. North Wales, the Pennines and Cumbria face a dusting tomorrow on high ground.

It will be England’s second snowfall this autumn.

Spokesman Dan Williams said the rest of this month is expected to be colder than average.

He said: “The pattern for the next few days is looking quite unsettled with some strong winds expected from Friday, rain and the chance of thundery showers and hail.

"Clear skies mean temperatures will drop overnight. Over high ground there could be snow showers in Scotland

and parts of North Wales. It is looking like this into Saturday and Sunday.â€

Leon Brown, meteorologist at The Weather Channel, said Hurricane Sandy had reinforced high pressure, which was helping block our usual mild Atlantic flow.

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said the rest of the month is likely to be hit by bitter winds, frosts and snowfall with unsettled weather until December.â€

The Met Office has forecast “slightly below average†temperatures until the end of January.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355619/UK-faces-icy-blast-as-Sandy-blows-in-snow

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Thunderstorms and gale-force winds set to batter Britain on this side of the Atlantic bringing strong seas and heavy rain

Thunderstorms, hail, and gale-force winds are set to batter Britain on this side of the Atlantic over the next few days.

Winds as strong as 55mph and intensifying heavy rainfall will hit swathes of the country while the remnants of Superstorm Sandy die a death across the other side of the ocean.

Blustery winds will be strong enough to cause rough seas - with waves already beginning to build in parts of southern England.

Forecasters predict a wintry flavour to the stormy weather with snow and wet sleet expected to fall this morning in northern England and Scotland.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2Axnsj5iR

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Thunderstorms and gale-force winds set to batter Britain on this side of the Atlantic bringing strong seas and heavy rain

Thunderstorms, hail, and gale-force winds are set to batter Britain on this side of the Atlantic over the next few days.

Winds as strong as 55mph and intensifying heavy rainfall will hit swathes of the country while the remnants of Superstorm Sandy die a death across the other side of the ocean.

Blustery winds will be strong enough to cause rough seas - with waves already beginning to build in parts of southern England.

Forecasters predict a wintry flavour to the stormy weather with snow and wet sleet expected to fall this morning in northern England and Scotland.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2Axnsj5iR

Wet sleet is a pain but you know, its nothing compared to that dry sleet we get so often.

Really wish tabloids would get people who know what they're talking about to write these articles, as opposed to the current crop of morons who so elegantly pull this boll....balls out of their backside.

SK

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Thunderstorms and gale-force winds set to batter Britain on this side of the Atlantic bringing strong seas and heavy rain

Thunderstorms, hail, and gale-force winds are set to batter Britain on this side of the Atlantic over the next few days.

Winds as strong as 55mph and intensifying heavy rainfall will hit swathes of the country while the remnants of Superstorm Sandy die a death across the other side of the ocean.

Blustery winds will be strong enough to cause rough seas - with waves already beginning to build in parts of southern England.

Forecasters predict a wintry flavour to the stormy weather with snow and wet sleet expected to fall this morning in northern England and Scotland.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2Axnsj5iR

I know it's only the Daily Mail but, how could Britain get battered on the other side of the Atlantic?

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UK Weather: Warning Over Flooding Risk After High Rainfall Over Summer

Britain is at a high risk of flooding this autumn and winter after a washout summer, the Environment Agency and Met Office have warned.

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The record-breaking rainfall from April to June, followed by more wet weather, has left river levels full, the ground saturated and groundwater exceptionally high. A house in Dura Den in Fife was almost swept away by the weight of the flood water after almost 36 hours of rain in October.

Householders and emergency services are being advised to be prepared for flooding, which with saturated conditions, could occur with relatively small amounts of rain. Paul Mustow, head of flood incident management at the Environment Agency, said: "This year our flood defences have protected over 119,000 properties, but we cannot prevent flooding entirely. The floods washed away material around the foundations as a waterfall surged through the backgarden at a block of flats in Newcastle in October. "With one in six homes at risk of flooding, the most important step people can take in protecting themselves from the worst impacts is to find out if they are at risk, and sign up to the Environment Agency's free flood warnings service.

"As winter approaches we'd encourage everyone to take this one step to help protect themselves from what is recognised as the country's number one natural hazard."

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The Environment Agency and Met Office are warning that:

The South West of England is of particular risk of flooding from rivers in November and December with northern and western parts of England at Wales at increased risk after recent heavy rainfall.

Unseasonably high groundwater levels mean there is increased risk of flooding in the south and east of England with Devon, Dorset and Hampshire particularly at risk. Flooding from surface water, where the amount of rainfall overwhelms the drainage network, is more likely as the ground is already saturated. The risk of coastal flooding also increases at this time of year, especially during periods of high spring tides from November 12-18 and and December 12-18.

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Sarah Jackson, the Met Office's chief adviser to the Government, said: "We are heading into the winter period which is traditionally the wetter period of the year in the UK. "Because the ground is so wet, if we do have any prolonged heavy rainfall in any part of the country, there is going to be heightened risk of flooding. "We recommend that everyone keeps up-to-date with the latest forecasts and warnings in periods of wet weather to be prepared."

More than 1.1 million people are signed up to receive Environment Agency flood warnings - which can be sent by email, text, or a message to a landline or mobile phone. This summer, 100,000 households were warned of potential flooding, giving people essential time to protect their homes and possessions. Households and businesses can check their flood risk and sign up to receive free flood warnings at www.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/11/02/uk-weather-flooding-rain-wet-warning-_n_2062347.html

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although i don't agree whith piers c's forecasts i must say i'm glad that he is sticking to his guns about the globle warming crap that every1's trying to force down our throte. I for1 don't beleave in man made gw and never will. How ever i do beleave in climate change and they r 2 different thing.

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HERE COMES THE SNOW: SUPERSTORM TO BRING UK ARCTIC BLAST THIS WEEKEND

BRITAIN is braced for a bitter Arctic blast to send temperatures plunging to below -5C (23F) this ­weekend.

Forecasters warned that most of the country faces freezing winds and harsh frosts with snow likely on high ground.

People waking up in Scotland, Wales, northern England and the South-west were yesterday greeted with wintry scenes after the second snowfall of the year.

Experts say the fallout from Hurricane Sandy in the US has triggered a shift in weather ­systems allowing freezing air to flood in from the North Pole.

They said the rest of this month is likely to be a straight run of wintry gales, snow and below-average temperatures kicking in today.

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: “It is going to be a bit of a shock to the system this weekend.

“We are going to draw in northerly wind from the Arctic with overnight frosts and snow on higher ground of Scotland, Wales and England.

“The rest of the month and even as far ahead as December is looking colder than average with more snow and bitter winds on the way.

“This weekend we are looking at some freezing temperatures, possibly sinking below -5C.â€

Areas that escape the snow are likely to be battered by strong winds and torrential rain, bringing the risk of flooding.

Netweather warned that gusts of 60mph will hit the North today, with much of the country getting a hammering over the weekend.

Forecaster Paul Michaelwaite said: “Friday will have sharp showers, becoming more widespread as the day moves on.

http://www.express.c...st-THIS-weekend

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HERE COMES THE SNOW: SUPERSTORM TO BRING UK ARCTIC BLAST THIS WEEKEND

BRITAIN is braced for a bitter Arctic blast to send temperatures plunging to below -5C (23F) this ­weekend.

Forecasters warned that most of the country faces freezing winds and harsh frosts with snow likely on high ground.

People waking up in Scotland, Wales, northern England and the South-west were yesterday greeted with wintry scenes after the second snowfall of the year.

Experts say the fallout from Hurricane Sandy in the US has triggered a shift in weather ­systems allowing freezing air to flood in from the North Pole.

They said the rest of this month is likely to be a straight run of wintry gales, snow and below-average temperatures kicking in today.

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: “It is going to be a bit of a shock to the system this weekend.

“We are going to draw in northerly wind from the Arctic with overnight frosts and snow on higher ground of Scotland, Wales and England.

“The rest of the month and even as far ahead as December is looking colder than average with more snow and bitter winds on the way.

“This weekend we are looking at some freezing temperatures, possibly sinking below -5C.â€

Areas that escape the snow are likely to be battered by strong winds and torrential rain, bringing the risk of flooding.

Netweather warned that gusts of 60mph will hit the North today, with much of the country getting a hammering over the weekend.

Forecaster Paul Michaelwaite said: “Friday will have sharp showers, becoming more widespread as the day moves on.

http://www.express.c...st-THIS-weekend

I must have missed this forecast for this weekend, the one I saw didn't mention blizzards. Oh well it must be right because Jonathan Powell says so.Posted Image

Edit; I replied to the wrong post.Posted Image

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Edited by Seven of Nine
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Ah I see the BBC is also running the story for more major flooding this Winter. Luckily we don't have the memory of a Goldfish and in March the predictions were for stand pipes everywhere and a contining dry theme. What happened was a sudden switch from dry to very wet. There is of course a very good chance of flooding with average or above average rainfall this winter. There's also a possibility the weather will do a reverse and become dry again.

Disappointed to see the Beeb seeming to express surprise that a family living near a water course could well get flooded again. The house was a flood plain so it shouldn't be unexpected.

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Which way will the wind blow? Snow falls in the Pennines as Britain braces itself for weekend of hail, thunder and, yes, more flooding

Snow fell in the Pennines for the first time this winter today as Britain braced itself for a chilly weekend of hail, showers and yet more floods. Areas in County Durham were dusted white in a reminder of what could be a tough few months ahead. Meanwhile, the Environment Agency has issued 26 flood alerts for East Anglia, the Midlands, the North West and South West over fears houses could be affected by overflowing rivers.

This has been caused by exceptionally high levels of rain between April and June, which left the ground saturated. The South East, South West and North West may also be hit. Emergency services have been warned even a small volume of rain could create a crisis. Forecasters say most of the snow this weekend will be limited to the highest areas of the country including the Peak District, Cumbria and parts of Scotland and Wales.

But the winter weather took its first serious grip on southern England today with police reporting that a car skidded on ice and ended up in a ditch in Devon. The smash at Lynton Cross, near Ilfracombe, happened shortly before 8am today as people battled the freezing conditions to get to work and school. Police said the 29-year-old driver from Tiverton was shocked, but unhurt in the crash 200 yards from the On-a-Hill Garage. Officers closed one lane of the B3230 at 7.55am to enable recovery of the blue Ford Focus. The road was reopened at 8.50am.

Meanwhile, an 18-year-old youth who died when the Porsche sports car he was driving was involved in a Halloween smash in stormy weather was named today as Tom Chubb, the son of East Devon district Councillor Iain Chubb. Tom was fatally injured when his black Porsche was in collision with a white Peugeot van at Trill, near Musbury, as torrential rain and strong winds swept southern England on Wednesday night. His father is a Conservative who represents the Newbridges ward and lives with his wife Eve at Abbey Gate, Axminster.

Tributes to their son, a former Axe Valley Community College student, have flooded in today. One, on his social networking page, reads 'Rest in peace angel, you will be truly missed by everyone. You were such a kind-hearted person who didn't have a bad word to say about anyone. You didn't deserve this. We love and miss you - sleep tight.'

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2B5vx0qAN

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Thanks Rybis when will it snow in Carlisle ?

Jasmine, you must forgive old Pete... It's an old joke in here to ask 'when will it snow in Carlisle?'

:)

In answer to your question... No one knows yet, but a decent easterly is often good!

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Back into the freezer on the 15 of November as the winds swings the the north ,then swings to the Ne direction , The forecast comes from a swearword on this site but the last 2weeks he"s been spot on a month ahead.Posted Image

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