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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A chance of showers mixed with warm sunshine.

_________________________________

Wednesday 2 June to – Sunday 6 June

Warm and dry through mid-June. Wetter later.

A low will drift in from the south around midweek and bring some heavy or thundery showers to southern areas. High pressure building in from the southwest towards the end of the working week will tend to bring some settled and drier weather. However, there is still a chance of showers or thunderstorms in eastern areas. High pressure building in the North Sea this weekend will see a lot of sunshine, but rain chances will persist in western areas. Temperatures staying above average, but it will be slightly less warm towards the start of the weekend.

Monday 7 June to – Sunday 13 June

Generally warm and dry with a chance of showers.

Early June is likely to be marked by some changeable weather patterns for northern Europe as high pressure to the west battles with low pressure to the east. The best signals for cool, wet weather are east of us in Poland and the Balkans. But the best signals for warmer, drier weather is south of us in Spain and France. The UK is caught up between the two weather systems, but there are good signals that high pressure will tend to dominate through the middle of June. This will push lows far enough off to the east to bring a lot of settled weather.

With high pressure overhead or just east of us, warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic will be able to feed into the UK more frequently. There are no strong signals for any northerly winds bringing in fresher Atlantic air. This means temperatures will tend to stay above average, although we may see a brief cool spell around the middle of the week as high pressure builds in. The best chances for rain throughout the week will be in northern parts of Scotland, which may see occasional weather fronts. In addition, for the first few days of the week there is a chance of afternoon heavy or thundery showers for Wales and England.

Although many areas will stay dry with plenty of sunny spells. Confidence overall is high for this week on the large-scale weather pattern. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on the specifics in the day-to-day weather and as such the confidence in the whole forecast is medium. Rain chances may increase in southern areas if high pressure is a little too far to the north, and there is roughly a 25% chance of this developing.

Monday 14 June to – Tuesday 27 July

Drier in mid-June but more unsettled later.

The second half of June is expected to keep the large-scale weather pattern in place with more influential high pressure through the middle of the month gradually giving way to lower pressure later. The best chances for some summer-like dry, sunny, and warm weather will be around mid-June when high pressure lingers over the British Isles and brings a lot of sunshine and calm winds. High pressure overhead would also tend to suppress the chances of afternoon showers, so this week will likely be a bit drier than the previous one. Later in June there are still some compelling signals for high pressure to decline and shift away to the east, allowing the storm track to return from Iceland into the UK.

This is a wetter and colder pattern with lows bringing in the North Atlantic air along with some occasional weather fronts. High pressure to the southwest will likely reach in and give us some drier and more settled days. The much cooler Arctic air is not except to reach this far south, so even though it will be cooler than normal it won't be nearly as cool as May turned out to be and likely still feel like summer. Confidence is medium on the forecast of lingering high pressure slowly giving way to cooler, unsettled weather in late June. Warmer weather looks more likely for the first half of the month, with some cooler air later. There is roughly a 35% chance that high pressure lingers overhead and keeps things dry and warmer than normal. There is a growing risk of hurricanes far away in the tropical Atlantic later in June which may disrupt things.

Further ahead

We will take our first look into early July as well as try to pin down a return of some cooler, wetter weather later in June.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly unsettled with a warm, dry spell later

_________________________________

Saturday 3 July to – Sunday 11 July

Unsettled and cool week with a few dry spells

Low pressure is set to move into the British Isles this weekend, bringing some heavy rain in places and chances for thunderstorms. A secondary low pressure system is expected to move in from the southwest early next week, making for a stormy few days for southern areas. Unsettled weather should persist throughout next week, although as the weather systems weaken later there may be a few sunny and dry spells mixed in too. Temperatures will tend to be near or a touch below average, with the coolest days expected around midweek.

Monday 12 July to – Sunday 18 July

More unsettled, cooler, and wetter weather

Through the middle of July, we expect that the most likely scenario is for a large-scale low pressure trough to persist over northern Europe, including the British Isles. This means that we should see a continuation of the cooler, wetter pattern as low pressure systems are often nearby or overhead. One complicating factor for the longer range forecasts this month is that the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that helps drive weather fronts, is rather weak at the moment. This is normal for summertime, but it also means that low pressure systems that tend to move through and head east will instead stall and sit in place, lasting much longer. However, it also means these lows will tend to be weaker, so it shouldn't be particularly windy.


Our best chances for warmer weather will be if the winds shift out of the southwest or south. There's little support for southerly winds through mid-July, but south-westerly winds are possible if high pressure builds into Germany. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure in the Atlantic may build stronger into northern Europe than we expect. This would be a drier pattern for southern and eastern areas although wetter weather would still be possible in the west and north. Temperatures would also be a little warmer, rising slightly above average especially for southern areas. Our shorter-range computer models are showing good support for this, but they have been tending to overestimate the extent of high pressure in Europe, so caution is needed. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this pattern developing instead.

Monday 19 July to – Sunday 1 August

Decent chance of a warm, dry spell later

For the second half of July the large-scale pattern may see a bit of a shake-up thanks to some tropical rainfall anomalies around Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Historically, this supports high pressure in the Atlantic to shift eastwards across northern Europe and head into Russia in the following weeks. In recent months this has been a useful forecasting aid and brought a couple of warm spells, such as the one we saw during the first half of June.

We think the best chances for a warmer and drier spell will be in late-July as high pressure shifts overhead from the southwest before continuing eastward into Russia. This period will likely last around a week or so and see some prolonged dry, sunny, and warm weather for the whole UK. This would be a more south-westerly wind carrying sub-tropical Atlantic air, which is warmer than normal but not overly hot. There is a chance that we could see a hot southerly wind for a few days as high pressure shifts into Germany, but confidence is low on that.

Towards the end of the month and into early August as the high moves further east, low pressure will likely return from the northwest. This will bring some fresher Atlantic air and more unsettled weather back to the UK. The cooler weather will likely be the norm for this summer, with only temporary deviations to warmer, drier spells. Confidence is low for the second half of July due to the potential for the tropical rainfall anomalies failing to develop, or to fail to link to the European weather pattern. In this case low pressure will linger throughout the month with only brief dry spells as weak highs move through. There is a 35% chance of this developing instead.

Further ahead

Any more signs of warm and dry weather in the forecast? How could tropical rainfall patterns influence the weather pattern through late July?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Met Office forecasts heatwave for July 19 lockdown exit

"Britons can look forward to a two-week heatwave coinciding with the July 19 ending of lockdown restrictions, the Met Office has said. And England’s footballers can expect good playing conditions for their Euro 2020 semi-final match against Denmark this evening.

The damp weather of the past few weeks is forecast to disappear from roughly the middle of this month when temperatures will rise to the high 20s. The heatwave currently languishing over Europe will push northwards across the Channel where it will remain for about two weeks or more, according to the Met Office.

Europe has recorded its second hottest June and temperatures in southern Spain are forecast to exceed 40C in the coming days. Finland’s national meteorological institute has registered its hottest June temperature"

 

%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F
WWW.THETIMES.CO.UK

Britons can look forward to a two-week heatwave coinciding with the July 19 ending of lockdown restrictions, the Met Office has said.And England’s footballers can expect good playing conditions for

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled, cooler weather. Drier later in August.

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 July to – Sunday 1 August

A cooler week with frequent showers or thunder.

Low pressure is expected to be in charge across northern Europe for the rest of this week and beyond. As we head toward the weekend though, the central low pressure is expected to drift more over Nordic countries to our east. This will provide a cooler northerly flow over the UK and keep temperatures a little below average for late July. High pressure to the west will struggle to move overhead, so scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most days across the country. There is a chance for some heavier rain in the Southeast near the end of the week.

Monday 2 August to – Sunday 8 August

Staying unsettled and changeable. Feeling cooler.

The large area of low pressure in place over northern Europe is expected to stick around through at least the first half of August as high pressure builds in the Atlantic and Central Russia. These two highs will tend to dominate the large-scale weather systems, meaning low pressure near us will become trapped over northern or north-eastern Europe. What this means for the UK is that we can expect a lot of cooler, wetter, and at times windier weather than what we typically see in the late summertime. The day-to-day weather will also be more changeable, with perhaps some dry, sunny breaks here and there.


There doesn't look to be any large changes in the weather pattern across the North Atlantic and Europe at least for the next few weeks, so we have high confidence that we will continue to see some cooler, unsettled weather into mid-August. As weather fronts move through from the west or northwest, we may get a brief ridge of high pressure, but this shouldn't last for more than a day. This is thanks to the sharper temperature contrast we anticipate will develop over Europe, with cooler air in the northwest and warmth in the southeast.

These temperature contrasts help strengthen the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. This in turn drives surface weather systems and makes them pass through us quicker. There is a slight chance these ridges are a little more frequent, especially later in the week, and we see some more consistently dry, sunny weather. This would likely still be cooler than normal, as northerly winds will bring in air from near Iceland, but it would be much drier. We expect perhaps a 20% chance of this alternative scenario.

Monday 9 August to – Sunday 22 August

Unsettled and cool but maybe drier in late August.

The big question heading into the longer-range outlook is just how long with this low pressure pattern be stuck over the UK? The answer is likely at least through mid-August, although high pressure is looking a bit more likely later in the month. Through mid-August we think the most likely outlook if for continued low pressure in northern Europe. More frequent Atlantic weather fronts will keep things changeable day-to-day, with some warmer and drier spells likely, although they may be fleeting. This is still a cooler pattern with more frequent north-west winds dragging in air from nearer Iceland and Greenland. Between fronts will be the best time for warmer and drier conditions with short-lived ridges of high pressure move in from the southwest and bring more tropical air.

Late in August the forecast become a little more tricky with a growing potential for high pressure to be more influential. The latest computer model guidance favours a continuation of low pressure over the UK through the end of August, but this is a bit at odds with some of the signals we're seeing from the northern hemispheric weather patterns. To complicate things further, the UK is sat on the boundary between expected low pressure and high pressure.

We expect that low pressure will be shifting more to the north of Europe later in August which should gradually allow for high pressure to dry things out and bring some warmer, sunny days for late August. This should be a slow process, but for the second half of the month we are forecasting a greater likelihood of some drier, sunnier weather.

Further ahead

We will examine late August and see if meteorological summer will end of a hot and dry or cool and wet note.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cooler weather giving way to a warm end of summer.

_________________________________

Wednesday 11 August to – Sunday 15 August

Unsettled, slightly cooler finish to the week.

A low pressure system pushing into the UK from the west this week will keep things unsettled and feeling a little cooler than normal for mid-August. For northern areas, the low pressure centre will bring some bands of heavy rain, strong winds even up to gales on some Scottish coasts, and chances for heavy, thundery showers. Southern areas will tend to be breeze with a stalling cold front keeping it cloudier with patchy rain. Towards the end of the weekend clouds should begin to clear as the low heads east into Scandinavia.

Monday 16 August to – Sunday 22 August

Wet and cool to start but turning dry and warm.

As we make our way into the second half of August (and the final few weeks of meteorological summer), low pressure is likely to become increasingly less influential throughout the week as it shifts away into Scandinavia. High pressure is expected to build in from the southwest, and for the first half of the week this means we will likely see some cooler northerly winds with the wettest weather in the eastern half of the country. From midweek and through the second half of the week, high pressure is expected to be more influential and shift overhead, bringing some increasingly dry, sunny, and warmer days. Temperatures will gradually climb a bit above average for most areas and as we approach late August we can expect some decidedly more summer-like weather for most.

The timing of the arrival of the high is still a little bit uncertain, and our computer models have recently been in some major disagreements on the exact day. However, we are starting to see some encouraging signals for high pressure to arrive in the second half of the week, with cooler, wetter weather for the first half. There is a roughly 30% chance of high pressure arriving a bit earlier, perhaps even as early the start of the working week. This would mean dry, sunny, and warm weather would be present throughout the entire week instead. Confidence is still medium overall due to the inconsistent signals for the timing of high pressure arriving, but we have high confidence that it will arrive eventually and be in place by the weekend.

Monday 23 August to – Sunday 5 September

Warm and dry for a time. Cooler into September.

High pressure is anticipated to arrive late August, and once it moves in, we should enjoy some more summer-like weather for a time. The high will be an extension of the sub-tropical high that lingers near the Azores through summer, so it will bring in some warmer air and sunnier skies. As it sits overhead for a few days, temperatures should quickly climb above average. This final week of August brings the best chances for a lengthy stay of high pressure and with it a slight risk of a heat wave. It's still a bit difficult to pin down the heat chances at the moment, largely due to the persistent inconsistencies in the computer models for this time frame.

In light of the poor performance of the computer models, for September we are leaning more on our historical analogues for guidance. These are where we look at previous years which saw similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe to what we are observing now. For the spring and summer months, some unusually warm waters in the North Pacific and North Atlantic have been proving to be a useful tool, and they support more low pressure systems and a more active storm track for the first month of meteorological autumn.

Therefore, we are anticipating that high pressure later this month will not tend to linger, but rather shift away after around a week or so and build in the Atlantic. This would send low pressure into Scandinavia again, so while this isn't a particularly wet pattern for us, it is still cooler with rain chances increasing in the north and east. September is likely to see more cooler, wetter weather develop later on, but the timing of the high's departure is the biggest uncertainty.

Further ahead

High pressure looks likely in late August, so we will try and determine the risk for late summer heat waves or early autumn rainfall and coolness with better confidence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
On 03/07/2021 at 11:30, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly unsettled with a warm, dry spell later

_________________________________

Saturday 3 July to – Sunday 11 July

Unsettled and cool week with a few dry spells

Low pressure is set to move into the British Isles this weekend, bringing some heavy rain in places and chances for thunderstorms. A secondary low pressure system is expected to move in from the southwest early next week, making for a stormy few days for southern areas. Unsettled weather should persist throughout next week, although as the weather systems weaken later there may be a few sunny and dry spells mixed in too. Temperatures will tend to be near or a touch below average, with the coolest days expected around midweek.

Monday 12 July to – Sunday 18 July

More unsettled, cooler, and wetter weather

Through the middle of July, we expect that the most likely scenario is for a large-scale low pressure trough to persist over northern Europe, including the British Isles. This means that we should see a continuation of the cooler, wetter pattern as low pressure systems are often nearby or overhead. One complicating factor for the longer range forecasts this month is that the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that helps drive weather fronts, is rather weak at the moment. This is normal for summertime, but it also means that low pressure systems that tend to move through and head east will instead stall and sit in place, lasting much longer. However, it also means these lows will tend to be weaker, so it shouldn't be particularly windy.


Our best chances for warmer weather will be if the winds shift out of the southwest or south. There's little support for southerly winds through mid-July, but south-westerly winds are possible if high pressure builds into Germany. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure in the Atlantic may build stronger into northern Europe than we expect. This would be a drier pattern for southern and eastern areas although wetter weather would still be possible in the west and north. Temperatures would also be a little warmer, rising slightly above average especially for southern areas. Our shorter-range computer models are showing good support for this, but they have been tending to overestimate the extent of high pressure in Europe, so caution is needed. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this pattern developing instead.

Monday 19 July to – Sunday 1 August

Decent chance of a warm, dry spell later

For the second half of July the large-scale pattern may see a bit of a shake-up thanks to some tropical rainfall anomalies around Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Historically, this supports high pressure in the Atlantic to shift eastwards across northern Europe and head into Russia in the following weeks. In recent months this has been a useful forecasting aid and brought a couple of warm spells, such as the one we saw during the first half of June.

We think the best chances for a warmer and drier spell will be in late-July as high pressure shifts overhead from the southwest before continuing eastward into Russia. This period will likely last around a week or so and see some prolonged dry, sunny, and warm weather for the whole UK. This would be a more south-westerly wind carrying sub-tropical Atlantic air, which is warmer than normal but not overly hot. There is a chance that we could see a hot southerly wind for a few days as high pressure shifts into Germany, but confidence is low on that.

Towards the end of the month and into early August as the high moves further east, low pressure will likely return from the northwest. This will bring some fresher Atlantic air and more unsettled weather back to the UK. The cooler weather will likely be the norm for this summer, with only temporary deviations to warmer, drier spells. Confidence is low for the second half of July due to the potential for the tropical rainfall anomalies failing to develop, or to fail to link to the European weather pattern. In this case low pressure will linger throughout the month with only brief dry spells as weak highs move through. There is a 35% chance of this developing instead.

Further ahead

Any more signs of warm and dry weather in the forecast? How could tropical rainfall patterns influence the weather pattern through late July?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Well then, if Summer 2021 has been bad for the models, it's nae been great for historical analogues, either?

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  • 5 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable, often wet weather for a time

Wednesday 8 September to – Sunday 12 September

Showers at first with a drier, cooler weekend

A wetter end to the week is in store for most of the UK eventually, with some thunderstorms and heavy showers moving through to close out the working week. Temperatures will quickly moderate from a very warm midweek, dropping to nearer the seasonal norm by the weekend.

Hurricane Larry, meanwhile, should help build a ridge of high pressure that will push in from the west over the weekend, sending lows into Scandinavia. This will bring some drier but cooler weather for much of the UK, but a chance of rain remains for the south and east of England.

Monday 13 September to – Sunday 19 September

Dry and cool start, rain chances growing later

Our alternate scenario from Friday's outlook is now the more likely forecast for next week, with Hurricane Larry tracking near Newfoundland before heading north to Greenland this coming weekend. This sends high pressure into the UK which should then travel slowly eastward into central Europe and eventually Scandinavia.

The UK should expect a largely dry but cool start to the week, with temperatures widely a few degrees below normal. This will bring some crisp, decidedly autumnal mornings, especially in rural areas. Later in the week, the forecast is still quite tricky. High pressure is likely to be lurking nearby to the east, with low pressure systems drifting slowly around western Europe. We could see a rather wet second half of the week if these lows are able to get into the country from the south and south west.

However, if high pressure wins out, we may stay mostly dry with temperatures near or a bit below average. At the moment we are favouring the low pressure moving in from the south-west, bringing some warmer air and a chance of rain to the southern half of the country. High pressure could become more likely to linger if we see a tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic early in the week. This is looking increasingly likely, but we are currently expecting this feature to be weak and bring minimal disruption.

Monday 20 September to – Sunday 3 October

Wet and cool for a time but potentially dry later

Closing out September and heading into October, we can expect large scale low pressure over north-west Europe for a while, bringing unsettled weather. High pressure in the Atlantic and Russia should tend to build in late September, and Atlantic high pressure may be aided by further tropical cyclones in the tropics.

After an initially unsettled, cool, and changeable pattern, weather fronts should become less frequent and weaker as October nears. The low pressure trough should be deflected to the north or east, taking the wettest and coolest weather with it. Weak fronts may still get into northern or eastern parts of the UK, especially Scotland, so it may stay cloudier and a bit wetter there. Eventually, high pressure is likely to build in from the south or west again, and there are some signs that early October may be a little drier and warmer than normal.

Confidence is still rather low in the forecast, thanks to an expected very active Atlantic hurricane season. We may see a bit of a lull in development over the next week or so, but by late September and into October more tropical cyclones are likely, and these could cause some disruption to our weather if they get too far north or east.

Our forecast is sensitive to the location of high pressure to our west, and tropical cyclones tend to cause this to move about more than it should normally. We could see a much drier and warmer end to September if high pressure is more influential, and this is more likely if we see hurricanes in the central or North Atlantic.

Further ahead

While keeping a close eye on Atlantic hurricanes, we will lift the veil for the first week of October and see if the drier, warmer pattern is set to persist.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, slightly warm start to October

____________________

Wednesday 15 September to – Sunday 19 September

Briefly dry with greater rain chances later

For the rest of the working week, the weather pattern will continue to shift away from high pressure towards more influential low pressure. A weak low will move away and allow for a mostly dry middle of the week before a cold front arrives and bring some rain to western areas. Over the weekend, this cold front is expected to slow down and weaken, eventually bringing some rain into the southeast. Meanwhile, another weak weather front will push in from the west and bring some rain to northern areas. Temperatures will likely stay just on the positive side of average.

Monday 20 September to – Sunday 26 September

Weather fronts with nearby high pressure

For the final full week of September, we expect high pressure to build in East or Northeast Europe with another high pressure system lingering in the sub-tropical Atlantic to our southwest. This will open the door for low pressure near Iceland, the aptly named "Icelandic Low", to displace nearer to the UK. An unsettled and rather changeable pattern is set to continue throughout the week, with weather fronts bringing spells of rain and cooler days while occasional ridges of high pressure mix things up with some dry, sunny breaks.


Temperatures will tend to fluctuate day-to-day but hover just above average. This is because low pressure systems will slow down as they approach Europe, thanks to high pressure to the east. As they slow, warmer southwest winds will feed some sub-tropical Atlantic air into the UK. Cooler spells will happen behind cold fronts as the North Atlantic air moves in from the northwest. Southern and eastern areas will tend to be a little drier overall, while western and northern areas see more frequent rainy days. The risk scenario is for a strong high pressure system to build overhead, either extending into the UK from the east, which is less likely, or building in from the southwest, which is a bit more likely. This would be a dry, largely sunny, and warm pattern as southerly winds bring air in from Spain and France.

Monday 27 September to – Sunday 10 October

Most likely staying unsettled with frequent rain

As we head into the first part of October, the forecast gets a little tricky. The main uncertainty is on the location of high pressure in northern Europe, and we are getting a lot of conflicting signals from our forecasting tools. We think the unsettled weather will continue through the middle of October and potentially even longer, with more frequent weather fronts and a wetter, windier outlook.

For early October, currently the most likely outlook seems to be that this low pressure dominated pattern persists for a few more weeks, as high pressure is favoured in eastern parts of Europe or Scandinavia. At the same time, high pressure will tend to linger and maintain strength in the Central Atlantic. This pattern helps strengthen the jet stream, which is a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems. A stronger jet stream means Atlantic fronts will continue to move in and give us plenty of wet weather with some day-to-day changeability.

Central Atlantic high pressure may occasionally build in overhead, bringing some drier, warmer spells to break things up. These could become more frequent later in October, and it's difficult to say which signals may win out at the moment. Our alternate scenario, which has a roughly 35% chance of occurring, is for a larger scale high pressure system to develop over northern Europe, including the UK. This is a consistently drier and likely warmer pattern, with those southerly winds again bringing in Spanish and French air. Our computer models are favouring this currently, but they are likely over-estimating high pressure building into the North Atlantic. While the rainfall pattern is starkly different, temperatures are more likely to be mostly above average, with no strong signals for prolonged cold in either scenario.

Further ahead

Unsettled weather is still looking likely for early October, but we will look a little deeper into October to see how long it may stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled, wet, and changeable for October

____________________

Saturday 18 September to – Sunday 26 September

Unsettled and gradually turning cooler

The start of the week should see some drier and sunnier skies for a time. High pressure will be shifting south across northern Europe and weakening, and by midweek a cold front will begin to push in from the northwest. This first front is likely to bring some rain to the northern half of the country, but by the end of the week and weekend, wet weather is expected widely. Temperatures at the start of the week will be slightly above average and gradually moderate, becoming slightly below average by the weekend.

Monday 27 September to – Sunday 3 October

Low pressure in charge keeping things unsettled

The large-scale weather pattern that develops over Europe next week is likely to stick around for some time, persisting into the middle of October at least. This should see high pressure systems in West Russia and the North Atlantic or Greenland, with low pressure between them near the UK and North Europe. With low pressure nearby or overhead, unsettled weather is likely to be the norm with frequent rain and often breezy days.

Temperatures are a little more tricky to pin down at the moment, and will be sensitive to the exact position of the low pressure system. If the low is east of the UK, northerly winds will make things feel cooler than normal, bringing some crisp autumn days. However, if the low is west or north of the UK, warmer air will feed in from the southwest. Temperatures are likely to shift around day-to-day as the low pressure system nearby moves around.

We may see high pressure build stronger to the west of Europe, extending north toward Iceland, forming a large block for incoming weather systems. If this happens, low pressure will tend to be pushed into Scandinavia, with a consistent northerly wind for the UK. This becomes a colder outlook with temperatures consistently below average with rain less frequent. This scenario, has perhaps a 30% chance of occurring.

Monday 4 October to – Sunday 17 October

Staying unsettled and changeable

Throughout the first half of October, we are seeing some encouraging signals that the large-scale pattern from late-September will continue without significant change. High pressure is likely to be a consistent feature in West Russia, which will be the main driving force for our weather. This high will tend to keep low pressure nearby or overhead and maintain the unsettled weather for the UK and North Europe. Temperatures will be around average but changeable.

Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to loiter to the southwest, occasionally building stronger and sending a brief ridge overhead between fronts. This high will control how many weather fronts we see streaming across the North Atlantic, and the weaker the high is the more weather fronts we will see. Later in mid-October, we may see this high pressure system consistently amplified to the north, increasing the chance of temperatures falling below average and reducing the number of weather fronts passing by.

Our risk scenario for the first half of October is that a strong high pressure builds overhead, pushing low pressure toward Iceland or Norway. This is a drier, warmer, and sunnier outlook which will become more likely if we see a strong Atlantic hurricane push too far north. This becomes less likely as we head further into autumn, but it will remain a risk worth keeping an eye on. There is roughly a 35% chance of this pattern developing.

Further ahead

With low pressure set to be in charge for much of October, we will take a closer look at the chance of some colder weather setting in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

 

......and we're off

 

1493998.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is set to be battered with gales and freezing rain as an Atlantic blast sweeps across the country.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

Quality ramping from The Sun 

>>>>>

UK weather: White Halloween on the way with snow to hit in just weeks as winter chill settles in after Indian summer (thesun.co.uk)

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
4 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

We're all going to die.....etc

 

image.thumb.png.abf6297f565c39801606afab0bcbbd04.png

How do they get "cold blast" from "Carol Kirkwood has forecast cooler conditions". I wish I could get a job making up "news" stories...

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled October, turning colder and drier later

____________________

Saturday 23 October to – Sunday 31 October

Warm but unsettled week to finish out October.

The final week of October will continue to be unsettled across the UK, but the large-scale pattern across Europe will be slightly different. High pressure is more likely to build in Southeast Europe through the week. This will trap low pressure to our northwest, keeping weakened weather fronts overhead for much of the week. In addition, this will shift winds to be out of the southwest, transporting milder sub-tropical Atlantic air, so temperatures will run above average throughout the week. We may see some very wet conditions as fronts stall overhead, but the Southeast could escape this, staying mostly dry.

Monday 1 November to – Sunday 7 November

Staying unsettled, colder Atlantic air moving in.

The first full week of November should see further unsettled conditions for the UK as low pressure remains in charge for Northern Europe. We anticipate that high pressure in Southeast Europe will decline, allowing weather fronts to pass through more easily. The wind direction will also shift from southwest to more westerly, bringing changeable temperatures and less warmth. As fronts move through more regularly, eastern and southern areas will become a little wetter, seeing rain more often than the final week of October.

As high pressure weakens in the Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic low pressure systems will be able to dip further south. This means some wetter weather for France and Spain, but also some more consistent cooler Atlantic air for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Temperatures there will likely run a little below average on most days, while southern England is more often near or slightly above average.

We may medium confidence in the early November outlook, mainly due to some inconsistent signals from the latest computer models on high pressure in East Europe. Instead, we could see this high remain, which would give us similar weather to late October. This is still an unsettled pattern, but the main difference will be temperatures as warmer air would be expected in the alternate scenario. There is a roughly 30% chance of this occurring instead.

Monday 8 November to – Sunday 21 November

Gradually turning settled but noticeably colder.

Through the middle of November, we are seeing some good signals for a development of a more blocked pattern. This is where a large area of high pressure sits nearby and quite literally blocks low pressure systems from moving in. These patterns tend to be long-lived, so once the high develops it should stick around for a few weeks.
The tricky part of this forecast lies in the timing of this block arriving. Mid-November will likely be a transition period as high pressure gradually shift into western Europe and the Atlantic, displacing low pressure troughs into Northeast Europe. During this transition, the weather in the UK will likely remain unsettled with temperatures trending near or below average for most places as winds shift more to the northwest.

As we head into the second half of November, we think the blocking high will be in place and linger just to the west of us. This means north westerly winds bring in colder North Atlantic air from Greenland, so temperatures should tend to be below average. However, weather fronts will be deflected east, so it should be dry and calm. Frost is likely overnight in these conditions, and any weak showers that reach into northern Scotland could turn wintry in the hills.

Further ahead

We will endeavour to pin down the blocking high in November and see when we might expect colder air to arrive bringing the opening salvo of the winter season.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A colder, slightly wet outlook for November.

____________________

Saturday 30 October to – Sunday 7 November

Drier and colder next working week for a time.

A very wet weekend is in store for much of the country as heavy rain sweeps across the UK. Low pressure is expected to remain nearby through much of the next week, but high pressure will also build to the west. This will cause winds to shift to the north and bring in some noticeably colder air, causing temperatures to dip below average through the working week. The nearby low will keep shower chances high for northern and eastern areas, but many will have a dry midweek. By next weekend, however, unsettled weather will likely return, bringing milder, wetter days.

Monday 8 November to – Sunday 14 November

Unsettled and changeable week, but often cool.

Heading into the middle of November, our confidence in the forecast has dropped a bit as computer models are really struggling with how strong high pressure will be. It is looking more likely now that we will see highs remain in Southwest Europe or the Mediterranean, keeping low pressure to the north of the UK and a cool, wet, and breezy pattern for us.


However, it will probably be quiet a changeable week due to the nearby high pressure. These pressure zones tend to dominate the weather patterns and push low pressure out of their way, so it is very likely we will see some occasional ridges of high pressure extend in from the south. This will bring some dry but colder spells as the ridges shift winds to the north. Dry spells should only last for a few days at a time though.


The risk to this forecast is that these ridges do not move away and instead build in and remain. This is a drier, cooler, less changeable outlook, as winds will tend to be out of the northwest and bring in colder air from Iceland. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this pattern developing instead, so confidence is a bit low. We do, however, have medium to high confidence that it will often be cooler than normal.

Monday 15 November to – Sunday 28 November

An often wet and cold second half of November.

Confidence has also dropped for the second half of November. Again, the computer models are really struggling with the large-scale pattern. In these situations, we can turn to our historical analogues for some additional guidance. These are models where we look at years since 1950 that saw similar weather patterns to those we are observing at the moment. One big signal is coming from a pattern called La Nina, which is cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.

Although far away from the UK, this trend can set up the large-scale weather pattern from North America stretching across the Atlantic and into Europe. Usually in November, we see high pressure near Iceland and Greenland, extending north of Europe into West Russia with a weak area of low pressure near the UK. We are expecting this to be the case for the second half of November this year, and there are signals in a few computer models that support this. This would be a colder than normal and slightly wet outlook for the UK with weak weather fronts often bringing outbreaks of rain.


The alternate scenario, which has some strong support in the computer models, is for high pressure to build overhead and remain in place, keeping things slightly cooler than normal but dry. The temperatures would be sensitive to the position of the high in this pattern, and the further east the high is the milder it will be. There is a roughly 35% chance of this developing instead, but we have higher confidence that in either pattern temperatures will tend to be on a cooler side of average.

Further ahead

Hopefully we can increase the confidence in the forecast with fresh data. We will also look at the risk for a potential cold outbreak of Arctic air in late November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A colder, slightly wet outlook for November.

____________________

 

Monday 8 November to – Sunday 14 November

Unsettled and changeable week, but often cool.


However, it will probably be quiet a changeable week due to the nearby high pressure. These pressure zones tend to dominate the weather patterns and push low pressure out of their way, so it is very likely we will see some occasional ridges of high pressure extend in from the south. This will bring some dry but colder spells as the ridges shift winds to the north. Dry spells should only last for a few days at a time though.

 

Who writes these!

PS: It's not the 'spin' I'm concerned about; it's the content: since when did anticyclones cause unsettled weather, quite is misspelt as 'quiet', and there was no proof-reading carried out. A bit lax for GB's premier public broadcaster?

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Signs of a colder November on the horizon

____________________

Wednesday 3 November to – Sunday 7 November

Cooler through the end of the week

As high pressure builds to the southwest, northerly winds will usher in a burst of below normal temperatures to the UK for much of this week. Low pressure to the north and east may allow spells of showers to occur the latter half of the week across northern and eastern areas while largely dry conditions develop across the south. A more potent low pressure system should pass between Scotland and Iceland this weekend. This will bring a wave of wet conditions to Scotland and Northern Ireland, along with increased winds and a return to milder weather.

Monday 8 November to – Sunday 14 November

An unsettled pattern returns for mid-November

The early part of the week should see milder air being drawn in across the UK from the southwest as high pressure shifts towards Central Europe. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to pass over or just to the north of the UK during the week. This will provide for periods of wet weather to develop along with breezy winds, especially across the north and west.

Later in the week a cold front is likely to move through, which will spread wet and windy conditions across the UK. In the wake of the front, high pressure will develop late next weekend allowing for drier and calmer conditions to return, but will cause temperatures to cool down. It is not likely to be anomalously cold though.

The main risk to the forecast for this week is that the ridge of high pressure in Central Europe becomes weaker and allows for the trough of low pressure in Scandinavia to extend southward across Western Europe.

This would result in colder northerly winds to become more entrenched across the UK, especially over the latter half of the week. This would also likely promote a drier pattern as the more active storm track shifts away from the UK and instead would favour Western and Central Europe. There is about a 25% chance of this pattern developing.

Monday 15 November to – Sunday 28 November

Late November cold

Moving into the second half of November, we should see an overall colder pattern begin to take shape. Model guidance continues to struggle with the large-scale pattern, so we have turned to our historical analogues to delve into what had occurred in similar situations in years past.

One important signal to consider is the La Nina that is currently developing. La Nina events occur when cooler than average ocean temperatures develop along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. While far away from the UK, La Nina is an important driver in setting up the large-scale weather pattern across North America towards the Atlantic and Europe. With a La Nina occurring in November, one common feature is high pressure forming near Greenland while a weak area of low pressure develops in Western Europe.

This is the pattern that is expected to take hold over the second half of November. The high pressure near Greenland will help direct colder air from the north towards the UK, leading to a period of below normal temperatures. As the Greenland high becomes more entrenched and occasionally extend towards Northern Europe, winds are likely to diminish. With low pressure still expected to be close by, this doesn't appear to be a dry pattern, but it is also unlikely to be an extremely wet pattern. A few of the computer models are beginning to support the solution indicated by the historical analogues.

The other scenario which has support in the computer models would be for high pressure to be more prevalent across Western Europe. This would still favour a cooler pattern, but temperatures would be more sensitive to the position of the high with a few brief shots of milder air possible. An overall drier pattern would also develop. There is about a 35% chance that this pattern ultimately prevails. Confidence is higher, however, regarding temperatures for the period falling on the colder side of normal.

Further ahead

We will continue to monitor the risk for a potential outbreak of cold Arctic air to develop late in November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
On 30/10/2021 at 11:51, swfc said:

The King of spin Ed

I can't believe that the BBC do not know the difference between quiet and quite, see the Bolded item above!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning colder and drier heading into winter

____________________

Saturday 6 November to – Sunday 14 November

A mild but unsettled week through mid-November

The weekend and coming week will be an unsettled one for much of the country, with weather fronts bringing frequent rain to western and northern areas. High pressure to the east and southeast will tend to weaken these fronts as they move eastward, so the southern and eastern parts of the UK will see rain much less often. In addition, high pressure to the east will generate south-westerly winds that tend to keep the temperatures above average, but some day-to-day changeability is likely as well.

Monday 15 November to – Sunday 21 November

Turning drier for most but also colder

Heading into the second half of November, we expect the weather to gradually shift away from the more progressive, unsettled pattern seen early in the month toward a more persistent, drier outlook. High pressure looks likely in the Atlantic to the west or south-west of the UK, and this will tend to push low pressure into Scandinavia. The result is a drier pattern, but also colder north-westerly or northerly winds, so temperatures will tend to fall below average.

There is likely to be a gradual change around the middle of the month, but once low pressure gets locked into eastern parts of Europe, we will tend to see the driest conditions in the west with the greatest chances of precipitation in the east. With a strong high in the Atlantic, the jet stream will be weakened. The jet stream is a fast-moving ribbon of air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather fronts, and if it is weaker that means fronts will be slower and carry less precipitation. So, any fronts that reach into eastern areas will tend to be weak.

The main alternate scenario heading into late November is that high pressure builds to the east instead, perhaps in Germany or Poland. This would still be a drier pattern, but winds would be out of the south-west instead of the north-west resulting in a milder outlook. Fronts would also be stronger but tend to only reach north-western areas such as Northern Ireland or parts of Scotland. There is about a 30% chance of this developing instead.

Monday 22 November to – Sunday 5 December

Mostly cold, dry with some mild breaks at times

The large-scale weather pattern for the North Atlantic and Europe is expected to be fairly consistent for a few weeks heading into early December. This should see high pressure building in the Atlantic to the west of Europe with another area of high pressure in Central Russia. Between them, often in eastern areas of Europe, will be a region of low pressure.

What this means for the UK is that we should expect a lot of drier, calmer weather with high pressure nearby, but winds will tend to bring in a polar air causing temperatures to fall below average. Lower temperatures with calm winds under high pressure can also lead to some sharp frosts this time of year, and the chances of these grow in early December.

However, this pattern does come with a caveat. We think there will be some temporary ridges of high pressure that shift eastward across Europe. These would tend to last for a few days at a time but would have the effect of shifting the winds southerly and bringing in milder air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. They may also briefly let in a weak weather front to break up the otherwise dry pattern.

These are expected to be transient features, but some of our computer models have them staying more long-lived in Central Europe, resulting in a consistently mild outlook. There's a 35% chance of this happening, so confidence is still a bit low for the long-range forecast, especially for the temperatures.

Further ahead

We hope to see some improvements in the computer models which would increase the confidence for a dry, cold start to the meteorological winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

The Express have unleashed James Madden for the Winter. We're all going to die !!!

 

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WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

AN early blast of savage winter this month threatens heavy snow and plunging temperatures as the sun goes into hibernation. Britons are being warned to dig out the thermals for an icy blast which...

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Colder temperatures are on the way.

____________________

Saturday 13 November to – Sunday 21 November

An unsettled but generally mild pattern.

A milder and relatively dry weekend is on tap across the UK, though a few pockets of rain showers may brush Northern Ireland and Scotland Sunday into Monday. A more organized cold front looks to spread increased rain and winds to the UK over the middle of the week, with some snow falling over the Scottish Highlands. Temperatures may briefly dip near or just below freezing in the wake of this front for a 18-24 hour period from late Wednesday into early Thursday. West-southwest winds will return late in the week, allowing for mild conditions to rebuild across the UK. Another low pressure system may split the UK and Iceland by next weekend. This would allow for another round of rain showers to pass through the UK to go along with a return of some cooler weather.

Monday 22 November to – Sunday 28 November

Drier and colder conditions arrive.

The pattern should begin to shift moving into the final ten days of November. The more unsettled pattern should wind down early in the week as high pressure becomes more established over the Atlantic to the west of the UK. This will help draw in colder Icelandic air from the north towards the UK that should build throughout the week. Evenings may become cool enough for sharp frosts to develop. Drier and less windy conditions should also evolve over the week, particularly across Northern Ireland and Wales.


There will remain a risk of a passing low pressure system across the North Sea early in the week before the threat should shift further towards the east. However, the Atlantic High will create some interference and impede any stronger systems. This would mean that any systems that do brush the British Isles will tend to be on the weaker side with relatively reduced precipitation.


The primary alternate scenario for this week would be for the Atlantic High to be centred further south and not extend quite as far north. The forecast still would lean a bit on the cool side for the week. However, with more periods of westerly winds as opposed to winds from the north, the risks for anomalous cold would not be as high. This also would provide an increased chance for wetter and windier conditions to develop across primarily Scotland. The overall chances for this scenario is about 30%.

Monday 29 November to – Sunday 12 December

Cool conditions continue into December.

High pressure in the North Atlantic will gradually expand towards Northwest Europe as the calendar flips over to December. The risks for extreme cold will not be quite as robust as the previous week. However, a pattern featuring cool, dry, and relatively calm conditions should continue through the first two weeks of December.


As high pressure occasionally builds across Western Europe, a transient shot of near to slightly above normal temperatures may occur on a sub-weekly basis as winds become more westerly. The greatest potential for this will be during the second week of December across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Any brief warm-ups look to be relatively short lived, with modest cool anomalies expected to return. While dry conditions remain favoured for the second week of December, the risk for a storm system clipping Scotland will begin to gradually increase. The better chances for a storm system to impact the UK do look to hold off until the third week of December, beyond the forecast window.


The main risk for this period would be for a stronger area of high pressure to remain stationed west of the UK and struggle to extend into Northwest Europe. This would allow for colder northerly winds to be a bit more persistent during the first portion of December. The overall dry and calm pattern should not be affected too much, though a weak system brushing through the UK may have to be watched for. There is about a 35% chance that this scenario develops.

Further ahead

We will see how model guidance evolves and hope that they will continue to shift towards our favoured December analogues.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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  • 9 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Hungary's weather chief sacked over wrong forecast

 

 

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WWW.BBC.CO.UK

A mistaken forecast saw the postponement of a huge fireworks display to celebrate a national day.

 

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