Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    BBC monthly outlook

    Summary

    Unsettled at times with some warm, dry spells.

    _________________________________

    Friday 28 May to – Sunday 6 June

    A warm, sunny weekend with showers next week.

    A warm and largely sunny bank holiday weekend is in store to close out the final few days of what has been a very cold meteorological spring. The warmth looks set to continue into next week for a while as high pressure lingers nearby to our east. However, low pressure developing south of us will bring some increased chances of heavy showers or thunderstorms through the middle of next week. Towards the end of the week and into the following weekend, some fresher Atlantic air and unsettled weather is set to return if high pressure to our east clears away.

    Monday 7 June to – Sunday 13 June

    Changeable weather, turning cooler and wetter.

    Early June is likely to be marked by some changeable weather patterns for the UK as high pressure to the southwest battles with low pressure to the north or northeast. The best signals for cool, wet weather are east of us in Germany and Poland, but the best signals for warmer, drier weather are south of us in Spain and France.

    The UK is caught up between the two weather systems and will likely see a mix of the two. Low pressure should be nearby to start the week off, leftover from the cooler trends towards the end of next week. But high pressure from the southwest will begin to build back towards the UK and push lows away to the east.
    The biggest uncertainty in the forecast for early June is over just how strong this high pressure system will be. If it is stronger and pushes further north and east, the UK will see very dry and even warm weather.

    If it is a little weaker, low pressure will remain near enough to give some wetter weather to eastern areas and keep the temperatures a little below average. At the moment, we are slightly favouring the latter, with low pressure close enough to keep the winds more northerly or north-westerly and maintain the fresher-feeling Atlantic air. Western and southern areas will tend to be the driest, while northern and eastern areas will have the best chances for rain. We have medium confidence on the forecast, but low confidence on the temperatures due to the extra sensitivity to the exact location of the high. Warmer weather is possible if the high shifts too far east. We have high confidence that it will not be nearly as cool as the second half of May was.

    Monday 14 June to – Sunday 27 June

    Drier in mid-June but more unsettled later.

    The second half of June is expected to keep the changeable large-scale weather pattern in place with more influential high pressure in the middle of the month gradually giving way to lower pressure later. The best chances for some summer-like dry, sunny, and warm weather will be around mid-June when high pressure extends into the British Isles from the southwest.

    This would drag warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic into Northwest Europe along a gentle southwest wind, displacing the cooler North Atlantic air towards Iceland and East Europe. Later in June there are still some compelling signals for high pressure to decline and shift away to the east, allowing the storm track to return from Iceland into the UK. This is a wetter and colder pattern with lows bringing in the North Atlantic air along with some occasional weather fronts. High pressure nearby to the southwest will likely occasionally reach in and give us some drier and more settled days.

    The much cooler Arctic air is not except to reach this far south, so even though it will be cooler than normal it won't be nearly as cool as May turned out to be and likely still feel like summer. Confidence is medium on the forecast of a changeable weather pattern and alternating warm, dry and cool, wet periods. However, we have low confidence on the specifics for each week as timing out the pressure systems can be notoriously difficult in these patterns. For the whole month of June, we anticipate a slightly cooler and wetter than normal month broken up by occasional settled, warm spells.

    Further ahead

    We will use the latest data to re-examine our chances for any prolonged summer warmth as we kick off meteorological summer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 6.6k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    With state of the art technology and the latest info available at the flick of a switch I fail to see why the public should have to put up with out of date forecasts. In this fast moving situation its

    I've only gone and done it. This went to the Press Complaints Commission this morning....         1i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including

    Some more images from London this morning  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    BBC monthly outlook

    Summary

    A chance of showers mixed with warm sunshine.

    _________________________________

    Wednesday 2 June to – Sunday 6 June

    Warm and dry through mid-June. Wetter later.

    A low will drift in from the south around midweek and bring some heavy or thundery showers to southern areas. High pressure building in from the southwest towards the end of the working week will tend to bring some settled and drier weather. However, there is still a chance of showers or thunderstorms in eastern areas. High pressure building in the North Sea this weekend will see a lot of sunshine, but rain chances will persist in western areas. Temperatures staying above average, but it will be slightly less warm towards the start of the weekend.

    Monday 7 June to – Sunday 13 June

    Generally warm and dry with a chance of showers.

    Early June is likely to be marked by some changeable weather patterns for northern Europe as high pressure to the west battles with low pressure to the east. The best signals for cool, wet weather are east of us in Poland and the Balkans. But the best signals for warmer, drier weather is south of us in Spain and France. The UK is caught up between the two weather systems, but there are good signals that high pressure will tend to dominate through the middle of June. This will push lows far enough off to the east to bring a lot of settled weather.

    With high pressure overhead or just east of us, warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic will be able to feed into the UK more frequently. There are no strong signals for any northerly winds bringing in fresher Atlantic air. This means temperatures will tend to stay above average, although we may see a brief cool spell around the middle of the week as high pressure builds in. The best chances for rain throughout the week will be in northern parts of Scotland, which may see occasional weather fronts. In addition, for the first few days of the week there is a chance of afternoon heavy or thundery showers for Wales and England.

    Although many areas will stay dry with plenty of sunny spells. Confidence overall is high for this week on the large-scale weather pattern. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on the specifics in the day-to-day weather and as such the confidence in the whole forecast is medium. Rain chances may increase in southern areas if high pressure is a little too far to the north, and there is roughly a 25% chance of this developing.

    Monday 14 June to – Tuesday 27 July

    Drier in mid-June but more unsettled later.

    The second half of June is expected to keep the large-scale weather pattern in place with more influential high pressure through the middle of the month gradually giving way to lower pressure later. The best chances for some summer-like dry, sunny, and warm weather will be around mid-June when high pressure lingers over the British Isles and brings a lot of sunshine and calm winds. High pressure overhead would also tend to suppress the chances of afternoon showers, so this week will likely be a bit drier than the previous one. Later in June there are still some compelling signals for high pressure to decline and shift away to the east, allowing the storm track to return from Iceland into the UK.

    This is a wetter and colder pattern with lows bringing in the North Atlantic air along with some occasional weather fronts. High pressure to the southwest will likely reach in and give us some drier and more settled days. The much cooler Arctic air is not except to reach this far south, so even though it will be cooler than normal it won't be nearly as cool as May turned out to be and likely still feel like summer. Confidence is medium on the forecast of lingering high pressure slowly giving way to cooler, unsettled weather in late June. Warmer weather looks more likely for the first half of the month, with some cooler air later. There is roughly a 35% chance that high pressure lingers overhead and keeps things dry and warmer than normal. There is a growing risk of hurricanes far away in the tropical Atlantic later in June which may disrupt things.

    Further ahead

    We will take our first look into early July as well as try to pin down a return of some cooler, wetter weather later in June.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...