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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

     

    32 minutes ago, Stelmer said:

    Beware the Arctic Dome xD! This cropped up in Leeds Live and Yorkshire Live yesterday......

    Brian Glaze....the Doctor Harold Shipman of meteorologists!

    In the article

    Quote

    The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze said earlier: “It will feel more like winter than spring, with polar air expected in coming weeks.

    In this article two weeks ago....

    1404503.jpg
    WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

    BRITAIN could bask in 20C heat this month, a forecaster has claimed, as weather maps show the country turn orange in the balmy temperatures.
    Quote

    It comes as Brian Gaze at the Weather Outlook said the "strengthening sun" could mean temperatures even reach 20C, although it is still too early to confirm.  He told Express.co.uk: "At the present time I'm expecting an increasing chance of milder periods developing during the second half of March. "The strengthening sun and longer days mean there is the potential for it to feel quite warm, especially in the south. "The warmer conditions are most likely to come from the south or southwest. "I wouldn't be surprised to see 20C (68F) reached during this period."

     

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    With state of the art technology and the latest info available at the flick of a switch I fail to see why the public should have to put up with out of date forecasts. In this fast moving situation its

    I've only gone and done it. This went to the Press Complaints Commission this morning....         1i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including

    Some more images from London this morning  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    BBC monthly outlook

    Summary

    Unsettled end to March. Drier weather in April.

    _________________________________

    Saturday 20 March – Sunday 28 March

    Turning more unsettled as the week goes on.

    As high pressure sits over the UK this weekend, the weather is likely to be settled, but rather cloudy with just occasional sunny spells here and there. Temperatures will tend to run a little above average expect for the Southeast, where some slightly cooler air is expected to linger. A very weak cold front should slowly make its way southwards later on Saturday, clearing south by Sunday morning. This will bring a few patches of drizzle or light rain to some, but mainly serve to keep things cloudy for much of the weekend.

    Some clearer skies are likely Sunday night. This could lead to a crisp Monday morning for central and eastern areas. Next week, we expect a gradual pattern shift as high pressure slides away to the east. The storm track will then return with weather fronts spreading in from the west beginning around Tuesday. The unsettled weather will then be with us for the rest of the week. Temperatures will likely be a bit changeable, but there are some good signals for a warm middle of the week for the southern half of the country. This comes as southwest winds bring in some sub-tropical Atlantic air.

    From Friday and into next weekend, it will likely turn a bit stormier as low pressure drifts nearer to the country. This will bring some stronger winds and scattered showers with a few pulses of heavier rain. Wintry showers are likely for parts of Scotland too as some colder air from Iceland arrives from the northwest.
    Confidence is high for the broad weather pattern next week. Although as is typical with the nature of low pressure systems, the daily specifics may shift around slightly.

    Monday 29 March – Sunday 4 April

    Wet at times early in the week then turning drier.

    For the final few days of March and start of April, including the Easter bank holiday weekend, the unsettled pattern is expected to continue. This is due to high pressure building away to our southwest near the Azores and to the east from Turkey into Russia. As we are sat between these two high pressure systems, lower pressure is expected for the UK and the storm track is likely to remain influential over Northwest Europe. This means it will likely continue to be wet and windy as weather fronts sweep in from the west or northwest.

    As such, western and northern areas will bear the brunt of the weather. Southern and eastern areas will run a bit drier, although not completely dry! Temperatures will also continue to be fairly changeable, fluctuating around the seasonal average as fronts come and go. Southwest winds associated with warm fronts will bring some milder days. Cooler northwest winds behind cold fronts will bring colder but drier weather. Confidence again is high on the broad pattern, but medium on the extent of how influential high pressure will be on our weather.

    There is a roughly twenty-five percent risk that high pressure to the east is much more amplified, keeping weather fronts off to our west. This pattern would also be warmer as southern winds bring air in from Spain and North Africa. But this pattern is a bit more typical of summertime. So despite the computer models suggesting this, it is more likely to be an alternative scenario.

    Monday 5 April – Sunday 18 April

    Possibly settling down again later in April.

    The first half of April is shaping up to see an ever-increasing influence from the high pressure system building over the Atlantic. There are strong signals in the computer models as well as our statistical analogues (where we look at previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns) for this to develop. In addition, unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic will heavily favour high pressure development there as we head deeper into spring. What this means for the UK's long-range forecast is that, April will become drier and more settled as we head towards the middle of the month.

    High pressure will build to the west and eventually start dominating the weather for West Europe. There is some uncertainty on the weekly specifics here as things like temperature and precipitation are highly sensitive to how strong and how near the high is at any given time. However, in general as the high builds closer we will likely have a period of northwest winds bringing cooler air from near Iceland. Later a surface high pressure system will brings in some milder sub-tropical air from the southwest. Confidence is perhaps medium in the large-scale pattern across the North Atlantic and Europe.

    However, it will be low on the expected weather for the UK due to the sensitivity to the exact high pressure centre placement. Models are struggling with this and it will likely be difficult to pin down much more than 10 days ahead of time. The main risk scenario is that the high will stay too far to the west to block weather fronts, and the first half of April will remain unsettled. There is roughly a thirty-five percent chance of this pattern developing instead.

    Further ahead

    A closer examination of the first half of April will be in store, with fresh data to hopefully pin down where high pressure will lurk.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Australia flash floods: 18,000 evacuated and hundreds rescued as floodwaters cut off communities

    "Hundreds of people have been rescued and around 18,000 evacuated as record rain brought more extreme flooding to Australia's east coast. Emergency services fear up to 54,000 people could be displaced, with rain forecast to continue until Wednesday.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison told parliament that 35 communities in northern New South Wales had been isolated and emergency services had conducted more than 700 flood rescues.

    "We are grateful at this point that no lives have been lost so far," Mr Morrison said. "But weakened foundations for buildings, for roads and trees, they all create risk, as do downed power lines and rising water levels."

    A year ago, vast swathes of the state were hit by unprecedented wildfires, but now some of the same areas are experiencing levels of rain only seen every 50 to 100 years."

    skynews-australia-floods_5313434.jpg?202
    NEWS.SKY.COM

    Emergency services fear up to 54,000 people could be displaced with more rain forecast.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK weather: Britain could see record high temperature next week as COVID lockdown is eased... but prepare for a white Easter

    "A mini heatwave could enable the UK to break its record March temperature of 25.6C (78F) next week. A southerly air flow will bring conditions similar to those in southwest France and southern Spain on Monday and Tuesday.

    Temperatures are forecast to get very close to the record figure, set in Mepal, Cambridgeshire, in 1968. London is most likely to see such unseasonal March conditions, along with areas just north of the capital.

    The warmth will be relatively widespread, however, with temperatures reaching the early 20s Celsius for many parts of England and Wales."

    skynews-weather-uk_4383540.jpg?202103261
    NEWS.SKY.COM

    The UK will enjoy conditions similar to those in southwest France and southern Spain early next week, but a cold snap will follow.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

    Brian Gaze and the Express don't know the difference between surface temperature and 850s. Headlines show -12 and highlighted by 850s chart 🤪

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    7 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

    Brian Gaze and the Express don't know the difference between surface temperature and 850s. Headlines show -12 and highlighted by 850s chart 🤪

    1416142.jpg
    WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

    BRITAIN is bracing for an "insane depth of cold" air to strike over the Easter weekend as a forecaster has claimed temperatures could plunge to a bitter -2C in southern England.

    Ah, added 10 degrees to headline figure. Added an explanation of 850s too. Wonder who spotted the issues....

    Edited by Climate Man
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    BBC monthly outlook

    Summary

    A cold and changeable outlook

    _________________________________

    Wednesday 31 March – Sunday 4 April

    Warm start with a cold, largely dry finish

    Wednesday and Thursday will continue to see some warmer weather in southern areas, but the weather front in Scotland and Northern Ireland will begin to slowly advance southward. The further south it moves, the weaker it will become so most of England and Wales will likely stay dry with an increase in cloud cover.

    The colder air mass behind the front will bring a stark difference from the warm, tropical air it replaces, with afternoon highs dropping as much as 10 Celsius is some places! This air will originate from nearer to Iceland instead of Morocco, so a fresher feel is in store throughout the country.

    Heading into the Easter holiday weekend, the weather will likely be a few degrees colder than the average for the time of year but largely dry with patchy cloud at first. From Sunday and into next week the weather may turn much more unsettled, with a stronger cold front arriving from the north bringing polar air from the Arctic. This may only reach Scotland by Sunday with some uncertainty on the exact timing.

    Monday 5 April – Sunday 11 April

    Staying cold and rather unsettled

    The cold air we're expecting is thanks to a large, strong area of high pressure that is beginning to build in the North Atlantic. Our long-range computer models have been hinting at this strong high for almost a month now, so we have reasonably high confidence it will indeed develop and stick around for the first half of April. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, will favour high pressure development. However, the big question is whether this high pressure system will be near enough to western Europe to keep things dry for the UK.

    Our computer models are heavily suggesting that this will not be the case, and a trough of low pressure will extend from Scandinavia. This will help a deep low pressure system develop around Easter Monday and linger for much of the week, keeping it unsettled and windy but also keeping the colder air in place.

    The combination of colder air and unsettled weather from fronts means there is a risk of some lowland snow, which may be heavy in places. Pinning down the location of the fronts is, unfortunately, not possible at this range, but we have higher confidence that it will tend to be unsettled rather than dry.
    The only caveat to this is that our computer models have been very keen to shift high pressure in the North Atlantic towards Greenland, and they might be overdoing this. The risk scenario, which around a 25% chance of occurrence, is that the high pressure remains nearby and keeps things dry, but still rather cold.

    Monday 12 April – Sunday 25 April

    Settled and cool, turning more unsettled later

    Through the middle of April, we expect the large high pressure system to the west will drift closer to Western Europe, forming a blocking high nearby. These are called "blocking highs" because they act as a roadblock in the storm track, blocking or diverted weather fronts from reaching the UK. In this case, it is blocking them completely as a weak area of low pressure develops near Spain and Morocco. This means we likely will not see weak weather fronts in northern areas from a storm track displaced into the Arctic Ocean.

    Instead, it will tend to be settled, dry, and a bit colder than normal for mid-April. The high centre is expected to drift a bit closer and may become lodged overhead, which will send the coldest northerly winds into Scandinavia. It will still be below average temperature-wise, but less so than the first week of the month is expected to be.

    Later in April, the high should begin to move around and we think the most likely scenario is that it shifts westward. This will allow the storm track to return from Scandinavia. The weather is expected to become more unsettled and changeable but tend to remain a bit below average overall. Any warm spells should be short-lived, lasting no more than two or three days.

    Confidence becomes low by late-April as our computer models and historical statistical forecasts are offering some competing outlooks. The most likely risk scenario, with perhaps a 30% chance of panning out, is that high pressure shifts east into mainland Europe and the blocked high holds firm throughout April. This would bring dry conditions with a greater chance of southerly winds.

    Further ahead

    Are we likely to see more warmth develop through April?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    BBC monthly outlook

    Summary

    A cold outlook with changeable weather.

    _________________________________

    Wednesday 7 April – Sunday 11 April

    Cold returning by the end of the week.

    Nobody really needs reminding that the Easter period saw a big change in the weather. Cold north-westerly winds brought snow showers, with temperatures dropping well below normal everywhere. A weak and transient ridge of high pressure will bring drier conditions for a while on Wednesday. Winds will back more westerly, so it will become less cold for Thursday, although not warm by any means.


    Bands of rain will slowly move across the UK from the northwest as a low pressure system passes just north of Scotland. There will be stronger winds for a while, especially across Scotland and Northern Ireland. The front will weaken as it moves farther southeast, and the south of the country could stay dry and fair for longer.
    But there will be some rain on Friday. Behind this front there will be colder air returning, and that will cause snow showers to come back to northern Scotland and Northern Ireland during Friday and Saturday.

    Some of the snow will drift southwards into southern Scotland and northern parts of England and Wales, although these should be few and far between. However, the cold air might not get all the way south, and southern England should be less cold with a little rain possible at times. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week with north to north-easterly winds. There will be showers scattered around, mostly rain across South Wales and central and southern England.
    There will also be sleet and snow for North Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Southeast England could see some more persistent rain lingering, thanks to the proximity of a low pressure system sliding from northern France through the Low Countries to northern Germany.

    Monday 12 April – Sunday 18 April

    Becoming less cold but still unsettled.

    Unusually cold air will linger into start of next week, with low pressure to the north and northeast bringing in Arctic air. Southern areas will be less cold with respect to average than the north. It will remain unsettled, with scattered showers of sleet and snow, most of them in northern and eastern regions. Isolated flurries will be possible almost anywhere. Some showers will mix with rain, though, especially in the east and south.

    The brisk and cold winds will ease, as we head into the second half of next week. Temperatures will be nothing to write home about, though, staying just below average, or near normal at best. Low pressure will move farther way to the northeast and a high pressure ridge looks like it could develop, extending northwards from France. This should bring some drier conditions for a while, with chances that it will grow into a somewhat stronger area of high pressure over the UK by the end of the week. This would steer low pressure systems away, bringing calmer and drier conditions by the end of next week.

    It would stay a bit chilly, though. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on this and the model guidance is split with a large divergence. Some ensemble forecasts support this scenario while others paint a very different picture, showing a developing low pressure system moving in from the southwest. That would bring rain right across the country with stronger winds but also milder air, and this has about a 35% chance of being realised.

    Monday 19 April – Sunday 2 May

    Settled for a while then changeable later.

    The latter part of April most likely starts with high pressure lingering and producing a rather quiet spell of weather. It should be cool for the time of year, or even chilly, but not close to being as cold as the first half of April. It will also be dry for much of the time with relatively light winds in most areas and some sunshine, although overnight fog will be a risk. This high pressure should block the path of any low pressure systems and tend to steer them more towards the Arctic, although trailing fronts might just bring some rain to Scotland at times.

    Meanwhile, low pressure could also develop towards Spain and the western Mediterranean, and perhaps nudge northwards across France. This might cause some rain to move towards southern parts of the UK now and then. Later in April, however, it looks like the high will be on the move, most likely drifting westwards into the Atlantic. This will also bring the return of low pressure systems and more unsettled weather by the end of April and into early May. There should be some warmer periods, but most likely only lasting two or three days, with very variable temperatures, and cooler-than-normal conditions otherwise. Confidence is low, though, with continuing disagreement between models and with statistical forecasts.

    An alternate scenario would be for high pressure to shift eastwards into mainland Europe rather than westwards, opening the door to Atlantic low pressure systems. These would bring much wetter and windier weather. There will also be milder conditions with winds more likely to come from the south and southwest. This has about a 30% chance of developing.

    Further ahead

    There should be a little more clarity on next week's developments - high pressure developing as expected, or will it be wiped out but a developing Atlantic low? And what about the later month? Which way will the expected high pressure shift?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    BBC monthly outlook

    Summary

    Cold easing with a changeable pattern expected.

    _________________________________

    Saturday 10 April – Sunday 18 April

    Unsettled but turning less cold than recent days.

    This weekend and the following week will see some changeable weather conditions across the UK as high and low pressure systems jostle for control over northern Europe. This weekend, a weak low will track across northern France and into Germany, bringing some cloudy and wet weather to the south-east on Saturday.
    The rest of the country will still be under the influence of some Arctic air coming in from the north. It will be mostly sunny skies, but feel cold with scattered afternoon wintry showers. Sunday the colder air will spread into the southeast with some heavy afternoon wintry showers likely for England.

    High pressure will then move across the country for the start of next week. This will keep things cold for a few days, but also bringing dry weather for the many. Scotland and Northern Ireland are the main exception here with some patchy rain and hill snow for western areas. A few showers are possible in western England and perhaps North Wales too. By Thursday high pressure will begin to shift into Scandinavia, causing our winds to shift to more southerly by Friday. This will moderate things from our cold start to April, finally bringing the temperatures back to near normal.

    However, as the high moves away it will allow low pressure systems to return from the west. These will bring bands of rain and generally unsettled weather to most of the country along with some cooler air from the Atlantic. The good news is that although this air is colder than normal it does not originate on the Arctic ice sheet, so it won't feel quite as cold as it did for the start of April.

    Monday 19 April – Sunday 25 April

    Drier for some with changeable temperatures.

    Unfortunately, as we head into late April the forecast gets a little trickier. The computer models have been particularly poor at pinning down high pressure in early April, and they are continuing this trend later in the month. This is largely due to the models struggling to resolve high pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic and bringing colder air. The good news is that we also use statistical forecasts based on historical weather patterns to help us produce the forecasts.

    These are where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we have now to see what happens across Europe. For late-April, many of these forecasts are pointing in a similar direction, with good signals for high pressure to remain nearby or to the north. Following along from high pressure shifting northeast next week, we expect that in late April this high in Scandinavia will linger and begin to build north of Europe slowly. Meanwhile, the storm track will be in the North Atlantic and occasionally reach western and northern areas with weak weather fronts. The temperature and precipitation forecasts are tricky in this pattern and very sensitive to the high pressure.

    But generally we expect a changeable week with the wettest weather in the northern half of the country and some dry, mild spells for southern areas. This isn't exactly a surprising forecast given that we are in the middle of spring. Confidence is low in the forecast and the details are likely to shift around a bit in future updates. But we have some encouraging signals for what to expect from the large-scale weather pattern at least.

    Monday 26 April – Sunday 9 May

    Slowly turning more settled and warmer.

    The tail end of April and first part of May will be at the mercy of high pressure that should often find itself to the north or west, and low pressure to the south near Spain. The UK will be caught between these two large-scale pressure systems, so we will likely continue to see changeable weather. Again, we see some very poor performance from the computer models, so we are leaning a bit more than usual on our statistical guidance today. As we head into May we expect the weather to become increasingly more settled, dry, and warm.

    One reason for the consistency in the statistical models comes from the strong signals from both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and how that relates to the weather pattern across the entire northern hemisphere. Some very warm sea surface temperatures near Japan have helped build a large, strong area of high pressure. Despite this high being on the other side of the planet, it is helping to create a wavy pattern in the storm track that extends across North American and the Atlantic Ocean.

    This pattern will promote high pressure in the Atlantic to the west of Europe, where we have our own unusually warm waters around the Azores. So even though we have very low confidence for early May, there are some good signals that high pressure will continue to be a big player in the weather pattern. There is a risk (with a roughly 30% likelihood) that the high builds more into the western Atlantic closer to North America, which would tend to keep things unsettled for us throughout May.

    Further ahead

    Hopefully we will get some better performance from the computer models and increase our confidence a bit for the late April and early May outlook.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

    Well the Express say it will be 42 deg F above average in a week. Translated deg Celsius above average to the F equivalent of that temperature. 🤪

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      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

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