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It seems that according to the Express Netweather charts show a bitter Icelandic snow storm is about to strike us- backed up by Netweather forecast.....

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WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is on course for a bitterly cold snap as an Icelandic snow system heads towards the UK, according to the latest...

 

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With state of the art technology and the latest info available at the flick of a switch I fail to see why the public should have to put up with out of date forecasts. In this fast moving situation its

I've only gone and done it. This went to the Press Complaints Commission this morning....         1i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often mild and westerly. Strong winds at times.

_________________________________

Wednesday 11 November – Sunday 15 November

Very mild for mid-November. Wettest in north-west

A massive area of high pressure has developed across most of continental Europe over recent days. It's not expected to be move too far over the next few days. The UK is positioned on the very mild western side of this high pressure area, with winds from south-westerly direction. Over recent days, temperatures have peaked at 16C or 17C.
More very mild weather will feature during the rest of this week.

However, a few changes will occur that will allow episodes of wetter and windier weather to extend a bit further east over England and Wales than we have seen recently.
This will start on Wednesday 11th, when a deeper area of low pressure over Ireland and western Scotland will drive a squally band of heavy rain and strong winds slowly east across the UK by the end of the day. Eastern areas will have a lot of dry weather for most of the day, with the squally rain band arriving during the first half of Wednesday night.

Thursday will offer a drier and sunnier day for many areas, especially across the southern half of the UK, as a transient high pressure ridge scoots from west to east. However, before the day is out, more cloud, wind and rain will advance eastwards over western Scotland and Northern Ireland. The weekend will be very changeable, but often quite windy, as another Atlantic low pressure area gets close to the UK. The most sustained wet weather will be across the north and west.

Monday 16 November – Sunday 22 November

Mild conditions continuing. Wettest in north-west.

The most likely outcome during this week is for a huge area of high pressure to remain situated across much of continental Europe. The UK will once again be located on the milder western side of this high pressure ridge. Atlantic fronts running into western and northern fringes of the UK. Milder than average conditions will continue, including a very mild night on Tuesday 17th into Wednesday 18th. The risk of frost is very low, even in Scotland. A distinct north-west to south-east split in rainfall totals and wind speeds.
The south and east again experiencing less rainfall and wind than would typically occur in mid-November.

Towards the end of this week, high pressure is expected to decline over the near continent and low pressure areas will start to intensify close to Scotland. Westerly winds strengthening more widely over the UK, with periods of heavy rain making their presence felt across many parts by the weekend of 21st and 22nd. After the very mild weather for much of the week, don't be surprised if a brief blast of cold winds from the north-west races into Scotland during the weekend.

Monday 23 November – Sunday 6 December

Often windy and quite wet. Short cold snaps.

The latest forecast signals for the end of November and into December continue to suggest that the threat of a widespread and sustained cold spell over the UK is low and seems unlikely. Deep areas of low pressure frequently passing eastwards across the north Atlantic, between Scotland and Iceland, and then into southern Scandinavia will prevent a sustained period of cold Arctic winds from firmly establishing.

Brisk westerly winds and fast moving frontal systems racing across the UK will feature, with short-lived periods of drier, brighter and sunnier weather between them. Wettest over western areas, especially western Scotland. Some very strong winds are possible on a few days, perhaps leading to some disruption. High pressure will be closest to Wales and the southern and western half of England, so a few drier and less windy days are most likely here.

Although it will often be quite mild, the low pressure track will occasionally dip southwards over central Europe towards the Alps and Italy. This will pull in winds from the north or north-west into the UK, leading to colder snaps, with night frosts and squally wintry showers. The greatest likelihood of snowfall will be over the hills in the north and west, especially in Scotland. A couple of these short cold snaps might be expected to occur during the course of this two week period. But they will not last more than about 2 or 3 days, before the mild westerlies return.

Further ahead

We'll update on the threat of strong and damaging wind events and short cold snaps during late November and early December, and see if the chance for these has increased or decreased.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild weather less sustained. Short cold snaps.

_________________________________

Saturday 14 November – Sunday 22 November

Very mild until middle of next week. Unsettled.

The weekend of 14th and 15th November will be very unsettled over the UK, due to a large low pressure area from the north Atlantic passing slowly eastwards overhead. Saturday will feature overcast skies for nearly all of us, with bands of rain pushing north-eastwards. Some heavy and prolonged in western and south-western areas.
Fresh to strong south-westerly winds for us all, helping to remove quite a few more autumn leaves. Turning more showery on Sunday, with a few sunny intervals between the showers. Staying windy, especially across the south. Some of the showers will contain hail and thunder as they pass over the southern and western coasts and hills of the UK.

The first half of next week will be very mild, as we see yet another surge of south-westerly winds, transporting warmth and moisture towards us from the sub-tropical Atlantic.
Temperatures peaking at 12 to 15C widely on Tuesday, locally 16C in some northern and eastern areas, downwind of hills and mountains. Tuesday night will be extremely mild too, with temperatures falling no lower than 12C or 13C in some southern locations. Wet weather will especially affect the north and west, heavy and prolonged for a time, but this will clear the UK late on Wednesday.

A change by Friday, as winds swing into the north-west. Colder air moving in for a couple of days, so the threat of some frost in the north and some wintry showers. More wet weather will sweep east across England and Wales on 21st and 22nd.

Monday 23 November – Sunday 29 November

Less mild than recent weeks. Staying unsettled.

A low pressure track near or overhead the UK is very likely during the final week of November. So we can all expect some more rain, alongside some blustery winds. However, the fine detail for this particular week has been tricky to pin down over the last few days, with forecast computer models showing a lot of variability in where they expect the focus of the low pressure track to be.

The most likely outcome is that high pressure will only occasionally influence the weather over the far south and south-west of the UK. So the best chance for a few drier and brighter days will be here. Low pressure areas from the Atlantic should extend their influence widely on many days. The trend in the computer models has been wetter and windier weather more widely. There will also be some cold air digging in from the north for a few days too.

Temperatures variable, but the week will probably end up close to average as the mild spells cancel out the colder days. After the very mild mid-November period, there is a greater likelihood of some frost in places and some wintry showers over northern hills.

Monday 30 November – Sunday 13 December

Often windy and quite wet. Short cold snaps.

A severe and sustained cold spell over the UK in the first half of December currently seems unlikely. Deep areas of low pressure frequently passing eastwards between Scotland and Iceland, into Scandinavia, will prevent a sustained period of cold Arctic winds from firmly establishing. Nevertheless, we should be wary of a couple of short-lived cold snaps, when winds swing into the north for a few days.

This weather pattern most recently occurred in December 2017. There were several dramatic swings in temperature during that month, from very mild to colder than average in just 2 or 3 days. For example, on 7th December 2017, temperatures across the southern half of England were very mild and widely above 10C. Just 3 days later, midday temperatures over Wales and the Midlands were hovering around freezing, with 15-20cm of snow lying on the ground!

While this is a dramatic example of how UK weather patterns can flip during winter westerly spells, don't be too surprised to see swings in temperature during this December, rather than sustained mild conditions. Sharp frost and scattered sleet and snow showers are possible on a few days, especially over northern areas. The silver lining with westerly Decembers is that they can actually be quite sunny! This is especially true over southern and eastern parts of the UK when the monthly averaged wind direction is a little to the north of west. Rain bearing weather fronts tend to be fast moving, with sunny breaks between them.

December 2011 was a very westerly month over the UK and sunshine amounts were above average quite widely in the east, despite it also being quite wet.
Winds from the south and south-west in December often result in much more extensive cloud cover, mist, hill fog and periods of prolonged rain and drizzle.

Further ahead

Getting a fix on the timing and magnitude of any upcoming cold snaps will remain our key focus, especially as November has been very mild so far!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled conditions continuing. Short cold snaps.

_________________________________

Wednesday 18 November – Sunday 22 November

A short cold spell on Thursday. Otherwise mild.

Wednesday will be another unusually mild mid-November day, with maximum temperatures climbing to 16C, perhaps even 17C in a few areas. After a dry and locally bright start over eastern England, it will be windy and unsettled again, as another low pressure area moves in. Wednesday night will see winds peak in strength across the UK, with gusts of 55-65mph over exposed western and northern areas. Even across sheltered inland parts of England, maximum gusts will get close to 40mph.

A significant change in temperature will occur during Thursday, as a colder north-westerly wind sets in. But there will also be widespread sunny spells for many of us, and only a few showers. In northern Scotland, the showers will be heavy and frequent, falling readily as sleet and snow as a cold Arctic blast arrives. Some local snow accumulations are likely, even at low levels. Widespread clear spells and winds easing on Thursday evening will lead to the coldest night since early November. Eastern areas will see a frost. A new frontal system will push cloud, rain and milder air raidly into many western and northern areas during the second half of the night. Snow for a time over the Scottish high ground before it turns milder.

The rest of the week will be mild and windy, as a deep Atlantic low pressure area returns strong westerly winds. Wettest over western Scotland, Cumbria and north-west Wales, while the south and east of the UK will have some drier weather with a few sunny intervals.

Monday 23 November – Sunday 29 November

Milder than average. Wet and windy.

A low pressure track near or overhead the UK is very likely during the final week of November, so we can all expect some more rain coupled with blustery winds. The fine detail for this particular week has been tricky to pin down over the last few days, with forecast computer models showing a lot of variability in where they expect the focus of the low pressure track to be.

The most likely outcome is that high pressure will be quite extensive over the near continent, more than we predicted in the previous update. This high pressure influence will help to steer the jet stream and its associated Atlantic low pressure areas just to the north and west of the UK on many days, with winds often blowing in from a mild south-westerly direction.

This means that cold snaps are less likely and mild weather patterns should predominate, even at night. If we do see a cold snap it will just be for one or two days and most likely over northern and eastern areas of the UK. Further bands of heavy rain and brisk south-westerly winds will feature. Gales are possible in the north during the second half of the week. North-western areas will be wetter than average, while rainfall amounts across the south and east will be closer to average, with most of the rain falling in the second half of the week.

Monday 30 November – Sunday 6 December

Westerly winds and unsettled. Brief cold snaps.

The latest forecast guidance continues to indicate that winds from a westerly direction will dominate the first half of December. This means that UK temperatures will be close to, or a little above the seasonal average for this 2 week period as whole. The prospect of a sustained and very cold weather pattern, with severe frosts and widespread lowland snowfall, as we saw in December 2010, is very unlikely.

Nevertheless, we should be wary of a couple of short-lived cold snaps, when winds swing into the north for a few days. This weather pattern most recently occurred in December 2017. There were several sharp swings in temperature during that month, from very mild to cold in just 2 or 3 days. For example, on 7th December 2017, temperatures across the southern half of England were mild and widely above 10C. Just 3 days later, midday temperatures over Wales and the Midlands were hovering around freezing, with 20cm of snow lying on the ground! While this a rare and dramatic example of how UK weather patterns can flip during winter westerly spells, don't be too surprised to see a few sharp swings in temperature during this December, rather than sustained mild conditions. Sharp frost and scattered sleet and snow showers are likely on a few days, especially over northern areas.

The silver lining with westerly Decembers is that they can actually be quite sunny! This is especially true over southern and eastern parts of the UK when the monthly averaged wind direction is a little to the north of west. Rain bearing weather fronts tend to be fast moving, with sunny breaks between them. December 2011 was a very westerly month over the UK and sunshine amounts were above average quite widely in the east, despite it also being quite wet.

Further ahead

The lead up to Christmas will soon be in the forecast range! We'll be focussing our attention on pinning down the detail for December and identifying the most likely time for a pre-Christmas cold snap.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Continued westerly pattern, through to December

_________________________________

Saturday 21 November – Sunday 29 November

A similar week to the one we are just ending!

A deep Atlantic low pressure area will pass eastwards close to northern Scotland this weekend. Its warm front crossed the UK on Friday daytime, and brought all of us some wet weather, but also a return to milder air, after the short cold snap on Thursday night. A narrow band of rain, the cold front, will move south-east during the day.
But there will be a few sunny intervals over eastern England ahead of it and sunny spells and scattered showers in its wake.

Sunday will be a less windy day in the south, with sunny spells. Scattered showers across the north, where brisk westerly winds will continue. Next week is actually looking very similar to the week just gone! Very mild south-westerly winds between Monday and Wednesday will bring rain to all parts, heaviest in the north and west, while the south-east has much less rain. A change to cooler air on Thursday, but lingering showery rain will affect southern and eastern England for a time, as it did last Thursday. A brief colder snap on Thursday night with some frost, before wet and windy weather sets back in by next Friday evening and the weekend.

Monday 30 November – Sunday 6 December

Wet and windy spells. Squally showers.

High in the atmosphere around the North Pole, a belt of strong westerly winds is predicted to become very strong during this week. Each autumn a 'Stratospheric Polar Vortex' develops, as the column of air above North Pole receives less and less daylight and then no daylight at all for a few months, so it rapidly cools. The polar vortex forms around the edge of this mass of cold polar air, but it can vary in strength and sometimes breakdown. The changes in its strength can have some influence on our weather during the winter.

When the Polar Vortex becomes stronger than average in the winter, it can help to intensify the low pressure track across the north Atlantic and facilitate its longevity. This process occurred last winter, in February 2020, when the UK was bombarded by frequent wind storms in. And it seems to be occurring again at the start of this winter. Expect to see frequent, deep Atlantic low pressure areas moving eastwards near to the UK, pushing rain bands eastwards at regular intervals. Short-lived 'shots' of cold polar air will occasionally sweep out of Greenland and over the UK, especially Scotland. This will bring cold and showery days, with some hail, sleet and upland snow in the north and west.
But milder winds from the west and south-west will be most frequent, keeping many days of this week slightly warmer than the long term average.

Monday 7 December – Sunday 20 December

Westerly pattern will continue, stormy at times.

The latest forecast guidance continues to indicate that winds from a westerly quadrant will continue throughout mid-December. The prospect of a sustained and very cold weather pattern, with severe frosts and widespread lowland snowfall, as we saw in December 2010, is very unlikely. Nevertheless, we should be wary of a couple of short-lived cold snaps, when winds swing into the north-west for a few days, before flicking back around to a milder south-westerly direction. These rapid changes in temperature and forecast hazards certainly keep the forecasters on their toes, but they can also be hazardous for travelling.

A very wet spell, followed by a couple of cold and frosty nights means that even after the roads and pavements have been treated with salt, water running off from nearby saturated fields can dilute the salt or sometimes even wash it off. This can lead to an increased risk of some ice by the end of the night. This changeable mild to cold weather pattern most recently occurred in December 2017 - a mild westerly month overall. But still with some cold snaps and a couple of locally heavy snow events that led to some disruption. The most likely weather hazards during this period will be strong winds and heavy rainfall, especially during the week of Monday 13th to Sunday 20th. The latest forecast models predict a higher probability of stormy conditions. Already there are some strong signals in the forecast guidance for gales to feature in December.

Further ahead

The lead up to Christmas is getting into forecast range! We'll be focussing our attention in getting the detail for December correct and identifying the most likely times for hazardous weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable with occasional colder interludes

_________________________________

Wednesday 25 November – Sunday 29 November

Turning drier and calmer. Patchy fog and frost.

The first half of this week has seen mild air across the UK, with winds from the south-west. While the northern and western half of the UK has seen the majority of the heavy rainfall, a weakening cold front will move slowly eastwards across the UK during Wednesday 25th. This promises a dull, damp and grey day in the southern and eastern half of the UK. The north and west will brighten up and it will feel less mild than of late, especially by evening when temperatures will dip sharply.

The rest of the week will see a large area of high pressure shifting east across the county, influencing the UK's weather. Winds will much lighter than during the past couple of weeks, especially over northern and western areas, where strong south-westerly winds have been very sustained. Overnight frost and locally dense patches of fog will become the primary hazards through the rest of the week, with Thursday night into Friday especially prone to both of these hazards. A little more breeze from the south-east on Friday and Saturday will reduce the threat of overnight frost and fog, but Sunday night is looking frosty again, particularly in the south. A lot of dry weather to come from Thursday onwards, but occasional rain in the far north-west this weekend.

Monday 30 November – Sunday 6 December

A settled but chilly start. More unsettled later.

A rather complex and changeable week of weather. The computer forecast models have been struggling for consistency on the details, especially the timing of a significant mid-week pattern change. It is recommended to stay up to date with the very latest forecast information each day, as the exact timings of this forecast could change. Despite this uncertainty, the overall trend to see a shift from a mostly dry, calm, chilly pattern early in the week to a more unsettled regime later in the week seems likely.

High pressure ridging will still be extensive over England and Wales on Monday and Tuesday, even as some weak fronts edge southwards into the far north of Scotland. Chilly evenings, nights and mornings with some frost and patchy fog are expected, with locally sharp frosts over sheltered inland areas. There will be a lot of dry weather and a few bright or sunny spells will break through from time to time. The most likely outcome for the second half of the week is for Atlantic low pressure areas to encroach from the north-west. A milder, windier and wetter couple of days around Thursday and Friday is most plausible, although don't be surprised if the high pressure and chilly, dry weather hangs on for a day or two longer. By the end of the week, there is a reasonable chance of colder air returning from the north, with some night frosts and scattered wintry showers.

Monday 7 December – Sunday 20 December

Changeable conditions. A few cold snaps.

Compared with our previous updates last week, the main change to the mid-December outlook is that areas of low pressure are more likely to track southwards across the UK and down into France, Spain and Italy. This will offer the UK a break from a relentless conveyor belt of Atlantic low pressure areas and allow temporary high pressure ridges to build across the country.

The reason for the forecast change appears to be a huge low pressure circulation across the far north Pacific ocean, which looks like it will go nowhere for a few weeks. This will help to set up a wavy jet stream, with large north to south loops, across the north Atlantic and Europe, encouraging low pressure areas to track southwards over western Europe at times.

All of this suggests that a changeable weather pattern is on the way for mid-December, with mild, wet and windy spells alternating with a few colder and less wet interludes. A couple of very wet and windy days are still on the cards, as deep low pressure areas roll across, but the prospect of a succession of deep winter storms and frequent days of widespread heavy rain is less likely. Wintry showers and perhaps even some lowland snowfall are now more likely in the north. High pressure will occasionally offer some drier, calmer and sunnier days, with night widespread night frosts and some more fog patches.

Further ahead

December promises some rather changeable and challenging weather conditions to predict! Keeping up with the latest trends in the guidance and identifying the times when cold or stormy spells are more likely will be our main priority as we look towards Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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We're all going to die....etc

 

1364636.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is bracing for a big freeze to grip the nation as bitterly-cold -5C air risks bringing the coldest night of the season, according...

 

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23 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

We're all going to die....etc

 

1364636.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is bracing for a big freeze to grip the nation as bitterly-cold -5C air risks bringing the coldest night of the season, according...

 

I don't want to acknowledge it by clicking on it but was it written by Nathan Rao per chance? 😁

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable conditions. Colder interludes

_________________________________

Saturday 28 November – Sunday 6 December

Calm and mainly dry at first, then more unsettled.

High pressure will be extensive over the UK this weekend, bringing gentle winds. A weak warm front progressing north across south-west England, the Midlands and Wales on Saturday 28th November will bring extensive cloud cover, mist, hill fog and some light rain and drizzle. Any lingering light rain on Saturday morning over northern and western Scotland will clear. Best of any sunshine will be over northern Scotland and the far south-east of England in the early afternoon. Most places dry on Sunday 29th, but sunny intervals will be limited, and it will be quite misty and murky.

Not as frosty in southern areas this weekend, as earlier this week. Early next week, a cold front will move south-eastwards, bringing a short spell of wet and breezy weather.
A cold end to Monday night with a local frost in northern parts by dawn. Central and southern areas will have a cold evening and night on Tuesday night, with frost and patchy fog. A more unsettled second half of next week, as low pressure deepens to the north-west of the UK and then tracks right overhead. At this stage, there is some uncertainty on the strength of the winds over southern areas on Wednesday night and Thursday. But there is good agreement that rain and then scattered showers will affect all parts.
Cold enough for some snow over the hills and mountains in the north and west by Friday. A rather cold and showery end to the week.

Monday 7 December – Sunday 13 December

Wettest and windiest in the south. Rather cold.

High pressure will often be positioned to the west of the UK, out over the north Atlantic, during this week. And there is also a strong signal for areas of low pressure to become slow moving over Spain, southern France, Italy and the Alps. This will bring plenty of cloud, wind, rainfall and mountain snow here. For the UK, it seems that at least a couple of low pressure areas will push south-eastwards during the week. But with some calmer, drier, brighter weather in between them. Back in November, we experienced long periods of very mild weather.

This was due to high pressure over the near continent and a sustained south-westerly flow of balmy air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. There was little in the way of cold air from the north. Mid-December promises to be different, as we should see the winds coming in from the north and north-west more regularly. Frosts will be more frequent and we are likely to see some wintry showers, perhaps even some heavy snow showers over the higher ground in the north. Low pressure areas tracking to the south of the UK mean that western Scotland and Cumbria tend to see less rainfall than average, with the wettest weather over southern England instead. The frequency of strong wind events and westerly gales will be lower than a typical December in Scotland. But southern areas will have the best chance of seeing a few very windy days.

Monday 14 December – Sunday 27 December

Variable temperatures. Wet weather shifting north.

The middle of December will continue to see a strong ridge of high pressure over the north Atlantic. This will steer areas of low pressure south-east across the UK, France and then down into southern Europe. Spells of rain and brisk winds, especially over southern parts of the UK. It should be cold enough for some of the rain to fall as sleet and snow, especially over higher elevations, but not exclusively so. Some heavy wet snow falling to low levels cannot be completely excluded - we've seen it before in recent Decembers with a similar weather pattern, such as 2011 and especially 2017.

Once the low pressure areas track away to the south of the UK, there will tend to be two or three days with gentle winds, sunnier skies but also some cold air, with overnight frost. Patchy freezing fog is also possible when high pressure builds over the UK more intensely and we get some calm, clear nights. The Christmas week is now in the forecast range for the first time! It's too early to make a prediction of what the weather will be like over the UK on Christmas Day itself, but we can look at what the latest forecast guidance is suggesting for the week as whole. A consensus of the latest predictions suggest that high pressure will start to build over France, Germany and southern England.
Meanwhile, low pressure track starts to shift further north than earlier in December. This would suggest a trend to less cold weather, as winds over the UK come in from the south-west more often. North-western have the greatest chance of wet and windy weather, while the southern and eastern half of the UK will become drier and more settled, but with some mist and fog.

Further ahead

Now we have the festive holiday period within the month-ahead range, our subsequent updates will attempt to fine tune the details for the second half of December. We'll be keeping a close eye on the charts for any possibility of a white Christmas!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often on the cold side. Sleet and snow in places.

_________________________________

Wednesday 2 December – Sunday 6 December

Colder, windier and more unsettled. Hill snow.

On Wednesday a weak frontal system moves south east across the UK, bringing rain and then colder air. This front will be followed by a deepening low pressure system stalling over the UK between Thursday and Saturday. This will bring rather miserable weather on Thursday, grey and wet with rain for all areas as well as increasing winds, peaking in strength on Friday when there will be an uncomfortable wind chill.

There is the risk of hail showers for western regions, especially Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England, while the best chance of any sunshine on Friday will be across Wales and southern and western counties of England. It will become cold enough Thursday to Saturday for some snow to get mixed in, especially over northern and western hills but possibly to lower levels in Scotland at times. Some sleet or wet snow cannot be ruled out further south but looks unlikely to be disruptive.

By Sunday morning the low pressure system should be moving away southwards, leaving drier, sunnier, calmer but cold conditions. Frost, ice and fog patches on Sunday night. A few wintry showers will still be possible, especially for Northern Ireland and across northern and western areas of Scotland, Wales and England.

Monday 7 December – Sunday 13 December

Staying cold. Occasional rain. Upland sleet & snow

Monday will see a new area of low pressure moving in from the east, introducing extensive cloud cover to northern, central and eastern areas with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and hill snow moving west. Most snow of any consequence will be over the Pennines, Peak District and eventually southern Scotland. There will be a lot of dry and bright weather across the south-west of the country thanks to a weak high pressure ridge here. It will stay rather cold with a frost early and late in the day in some western areas.

Tuesday has low confidence on the behaviour of a new low pressure system expected to approach from the west. It looks like this will bring rain and wet hill snow or sleet to Wales and England, even possibly in the south of England (more likely sleet than snow here). Scotland will more likely miss most of the precipitation thanks to a high pressure ridge building to the north, which should push the low pressure system south-eastwards. Just a few scattered showers are possible. There is a slight chance that the low will track farther north, bringing rain and hill snow to Scotland, and milder but rainy conditions to the south.

On Wednesday and Thursday models suggest a better chance of a high pressure ridge across Scotland and Northern Ireland which may be expanding southwards a little. This should deliver a lot of dry, chilly weather with the possibility of a few showers towards eastern coasts and perhaps over the far south of England, and those areas could be rather windy. There is, however, a slight chance that this high pressure ridge will develop farther south, which would mean wetter and milder westerly wind flows, especially across the northern half of the UK. Further low pressure areas will then slide south-eastwards over the UK towards the end of the week, keeping the changeable and chilly pattern going.

Monday 14 December – Sunday 27 December

Christmas week will be unsettled but less cold

Through the middle of December, a transient high pressure ridge will extend from Scandinavia across the UK to join an extensive north Atlantic high pressure. The resultant weather will depend on the exact position of this ridge. Most likely there will be several dry and settled days during the middle of the month for many of us, with overnight frost and crisp winter sunshine. Occasional low pressure areas will still break south-eastwards through this ridge to maintain the changeable theme. These systems will initially struggle to introduce much milder weather. In fact, they may help to extend the chilly weather through mid-December as they pull in colder winds from the north and north-east. The threat of winter gales is rather low through the week of 14th to 20th December.

Eventually it looks like deeper areas of low pressure will start to track across the UK again, while high pressure systems dominate over Scandinavia and out in the north Atlantic. This should mean a return to more consistently unsettled conditions with periods of rain and occasionally stronger winds. Snow is still a threat in Scotland for a time but the low pressure track should be far enough north for milder air to get drawn across southern UK with temperatures most likely rising nearer normal.

So, at the moment the forecast guidance suggests that the chilly weather in the first half of December may start to relinquish its hold on the UK somewhat just before Christmas! It's too early to more specific yet, but the next couple of updates should offer a bit more detail on the week before Christmas.

Further ahead

Upcoming updates will hone the late December forecast to see what likelihood there is for snow over Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Here's Nathan Rao of the Daily Express with his annual snowmageddon "we're all going to freeze to death" overhyped winter weather story.... (the -12 refers to windchill and he's added a windchill chart for dramatic effect)

1367508.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

WINTER will roar in tonight unleashing snow and -12C temperatures as forecasters...

 

Edited by Premier Neige
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, but less cold after mid-month

_________________________________

Monday 7 December – Sunday 13 December

Cold and often unsettled. Some hill snow

On Monday and Tuesday a couple of low pressure areas moving westwards across the North Sea towards Scotland and eastern England will bring more extensive cloud and showers, some wintry over the hills. The south of England will have the best of the dry weather.

A calm, dry and cold spell is expected during the middle of next week, as low pressure areas move away, leaving a temporary high pressure ridge. There is a chance of a locally sharp frost. From Thursday and Friday onwards, new Atlantic fronts will move in and bring an increase in cloud, wind and rain.

There is some uncertainty on exactly how quickly these fronts will move north-eastwards over the UK, but they bring the threat of a short period of sleet and snow as they move into the colder air. Turning milder in many areas by the weekend of 12th and 13th.

Monday 14 December – Sunday 20 December

Not as cold as the previous week. Changeable

This week is proving rather challenging to get the details correct. It is quite possible that we will see some changeable weather over the UK, as an intensifying low pressure track over the north Atlantic comes up against a stubborn high pressure ridge over Scandinavia.

Temperatures will be quite variable during the week, with the mildest weather expected early in the week and then some chillier conditions returning later on, for a few days.

At least a couple of low pressure areas will traverse the UK during the first half of this week, so wet and windy weather will be widespread for a time. These low pressure systems will slide to the south-east of the UK by midweek, allowing a high pressure ridge to build in later in the week. So, a wet and windy couple of days early in the week will be followed by a drier, calmer and less mild spell, with some frost and even a few fog patches.

The main risk is that the north Atlantic low pressure track is more dominant, and we see a milder, wetter and windier week overall. This is most likely over Scotland.

Monday 21 December – Sunday 3 January

Atlantic low pressure track intensifying

In our previous update we discussed the potential for the low pressure track across the North Atlantic to become more vigorous and to drive frequent wet and windy conditions into the UK. A consensus of the latest long range forecast models show higher confidence for this wet and windy pattern to feature during this time.

Looking back at weather records for the past 70 years, it's remarkable how common it is the Christmas period to be wet and windy. This was certainly the case in 2013 and 2015, with widespread rain, strong winds and some locally severe flooding. December 1997, 1998 and 1999 all saw a stormy Christmas period. Storm force winds on Christmas Eve 1997 and Boxing Day 1998 left parts of the UK without electricity.

One reason why this time of year can be unsettled is the rapid cooling of the polar regions as Arctic sea ice reforms. Meanwhile, the north Pacific and north Atlantic oceans remain comparatively warm. This north to south contrast in temperature can lead to the jet stream becoming very strong, intensifying areas of low pressure that then move over the UK.

So, a new umbrella, rain jacket or pair of wellingtons might make practical Christmas gifts this year. We will need to keep a close eye out for a few stronger low pressure areas crossing the country, threatening gales.
Now and again, there will be a break in the low pressure chain and we will see a high pressure ridge for a few days instead. This is most likely over southern areas. We should see a few days of drier, calmer and sunnier weather, but also with the chance of localised frost at night.

And could we see any snow on the big day? A long-lasting cold spell over Christmas with widespread lowland snowfall seems very unlikely, as winds will often be from a mild west or south-westerly direction. But as we have seen in recent days, if an area of low pressure dips just to the south of the UK and allows colder air to sneak down from the north, then snow can turn up for some of us. It's all a question of timing.

Further ahead

The detail for the second half of December still needs some refinement, as there is still some uncertainty on how widespread and frequent the wet and windy weather will be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild & wet during mid-month. A cold snap later.

_________________________________

Wednesday 9 December – Sunday 13 December

Frequently dull and wet. Milder nights.

Overnight frost and locally dense freezing fog patches have been a feature of the weather during the first half of this week, especially over England and Wales. But there have been a few sunny spells here too. Scotland turned wet on Tuesday and this will set the scene for us all later this week.

A narrow slither of dry and calm weather, with some wintry sunshine, will move east across many southern parts of the UK during Wednesday daytime. This is sandwiched between a decaying area of rain and drizzle over eastern and north-eastern areas on Wednesday morning and then wet weather arriving into the south-west by Wednesday evening.

Between Thursday and Sunday, at least three areas of low pressure and their associated fronts will cross the UK, pushing broad bands of thick cloud, rain and drizzle over all parts, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Initially, the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be across the south-western quarter of the UK on Thursday. All areas will see these conditions by Friday and the weekend.

The short mid-December days and low sun angle will be compounded by predominantly overcast skies, hill fog and frequent rain. Light levels will be low, even in the middle of the day. However, the threat of overnight frost will recede and temperatures will creep a little above average by Sunday.

Monday 14 December – Sunday 20 December

Mild, wet, windy first half. Perhaps drier later.

A deep area of low pressure parked across the north-east Atlantic will be the key feature of the weather during the early part of this week. Similar in many ways to the November weather pattern, mild south-westerly winds will reach all parts of the UK and temperatures will be much milder than average for mid-December. 12C or 13C is expected as a daytime high on Monday 14th, following overnight lows of 9C or 10C in parts of the south and west on Sunday night and into Monday.

Wet and windy weather will continue to be a feature, carrying on where the previous week left off. In fact, the rain bands will be heavy and frequent enough to bring the threat of localised flooding, especially across Wales and western England. Strong south-westerly winds too, with potential for gales around western hills and coasts.

The second half of next week becomes less certain and confidence on the forecast reduces. The most likely outcome is for southern and eastern parts to become drier and less windy, while western areas stay more unsettled. But, over Scandinavia and north-western Russia, intense high pressure will start to usher in some colder air from the north-east. This cold plunge should stay away from the UK, but there is just a slight risk it could arrive into Scotland by Sunday 20th.

Monday 21 December – Sunday 3 January

A changeable outlook, with another cold snap.

A weather 'battleground' will develop across the north Atlantic and Europe during the Christmas week and the UK will be in the middle of it. Our last update suggested that a persistent and vigorous low pressure track across the north Atlantic would be the main driver of the UK's weather, delivering us all some mild, wet and windy weather through the Christmas period. This is still likely for some of the time, but there will probably be an interruption.

We can't ignore the prospect that the massive high pressure area over Scandinavia extends a bit further west for a time during the last 10 days of December. This would deflect low pressure areas near the UK further south, down over France and Spain. Cold air over Scandinavia and northern Russia would then find it much easier to flow towards the UK for a few days.

The longer range computer forecast models are struggling with which scenario will prevail during the final 10 days of December and there is a lack of agreement and consistency in the predictions. This of course reduces forecast confidence, but it does tell us that there is perhaps a greater chance for some changeable temperatures, compared with what was predicted last Friday.

With a low pressure track often close to the UK, an extended dry, calm and very cold spell still seems unlikely. But a short-lived cold intrusion, with frost, freezing fog and perhaps even some sleet and snow showers in a few areas, should make another appearance before the New Year. It's too early to be more specific on the exact timings yet, and crucially, if this colder weather will come in for Christmas Day.

Further ahead

The latest forecast guidance should start to show some clearer and more reliable predictions for what the weather during the festive period will be like.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Lots of rain to come, especially in south & west

_________________________________

Saturday 12 December – Sunday 20 December

Milder than recently but windy and very wet

Saturday 12th will start cloudy in many areas, as a weak area of low pressure shifts gently eastwards across the UK and away into the North Sea. Some residual showers or spells of drizzle, most persistent over northern areas. However, sunny spells and mostly dry conditions will develop across Wales and south-west England quite quickly in the morning, spreading north and east to reach much of the UK by mid-afternoon. Eastern coastal counties staying dull and damp all day. A cold night to come across central and eastern areas with a touch of frost possible before morning, under mainly clear skies.

Sunday 13th will see cloud, rain and strengthening south-westerly winds scything rapidly across the UK, leading to a very unsettled day. Heaviest rainfall over western hills. Turning milder from the south-west, leading into a much milder night than Saturday night.

Next week is looking very unsettled, as a conveyor belt of Atlantic low pressure areas track north-eastwards overhead the UK at regular intervals. Strong winds at times in the south, but not as windy as you might expect over Scotland in this unsettled spell. Temperatures mostly on the mild side.

Monday 21 December – Sunday 27 December

Mild start, perhaps colder later. Staying wet.

As we head into the Christmas week, there will be little change. While cold polar air may well start to encroach over Scandinavia, our weather will still be coming in from the west, with a seemingly never-ending supply of Atlantic low pressure areas.

Some unusually cold air for the time of year is likely over Canada during mid-December and this may linger into the Christmas week. Very cold air here, combined with the residual warmth of the north-west Atlantic ocean, helps to accelerate the jet stream. This is a high altitude belt of westerly winds above the north Atlantic. The jet stream will frequently be aimed straight at the UK, so this will help to steer the low pressure areas our way.

Temperatures in the lead up to Christmas will be near or above the long term average. Northern areas could get the odd chilly night with a touch of frost, between the fronts. Rainfall amounts start to become a concern, especially across Wales and the south-west of England. At the moment, no individual rainfall event looks especially severe. Rather, it will be the steady accumulation of rainfall and saturation of the ground during December that threatens some flooding by this time.

Could we see a white Christmas? For most of us this seems unlikely, but for the higher ground in the north there is a better chance than in the last couple of years. Some recent forecast computer models suggest cold air could push south towards the UK by 26th and 27th December, but the signal is still not conclusive. Widespread UK snowfall seems very unlikely on Christmas Day itself, but some higher areas in the northern half of the UK have a slight chance.

Monday 28 December – Sunday 10 January

Wet. Any cold snap should not linger into 2021

The final few days of 2020 are expected to stay rather unsettled. If we are to see some cold air coming down from the north, then late December offers the best chance. High pressure will still be located to the north of the UK, near Iceland and Greenland, helping to keep the Atlantic low pressure track either overhead the UK or a bit to the south. This favours southern England and Wales to be wettest, a risk that snow could fall over some northern hills, while western Scotland could end up a drier than average. We will continue to watch the trends for late December, as the detail is still open to change.

Into early 2021 and the latest computer predictions suggest the low pressure track over the north Atlantic will stay active but will probably start to shift a bit further north again with time, allowing milder conditions to return. Whether we see a pattern similar to mid-December, with the wettest and windiest weather in the south and west, or we see a more classical stormy westerly pattern, with Scotland wettest and windiest, is still open to question. An extended dry, calm spell is unlikely.

Any threat of cold and snow in January? A higher chance than last January, but we may have to wait until later in the month.

Further ahead

The detail for the festive period weather should become clearer in the next update. We'll focus on the threat of heavy rainfall and also the chance of a late December cold snap.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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"Any threat of cold and snow in January? A higher chance than last January, but we may have to wait until later in the month."

 

That bit is interesting. It would also tally with Roger J Smith's winter forecast

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild & wet for a time. Colder at Christmas!

_________________________________

Wednesday 16 December – Sunday 20 December

Windy and very wet, especially in the west. Mild.

Wednesday 16th will see a small but rather intense area of low pressure moving north across Ireland. This feature will already be producing widespread strong to near gale force south-easterly winds across the western half of the UK by dawn on Wednesday, combined with persistent and heavy rain. The rain will push rapidly north across all of Scotland by midday. But its eastwards progress across England will be much slower. East Anglia and the far south-east of England will stay dry until after dark. Most of the UK will have extensive cloud cover.

Thursday will be a much brighter day for most of the UK, with widespread sunny spells. These will be most prolonged of these over central and eastern England, where it will be a predominantly dry day. Scattered showers will affect southern and western coastal counties of the UK. These will be heaviest close to the Kent and Sussex coast and also over Wales, north-west England, Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Still windy in the north, but less so than on Wednesday.

Friday and the weekend will be influenced by a new large low pressure over the north-east Atlantic, moving slowly eastwards towards the UK. Extensive cloud cover on Friday, with intermittent rain and drizzle and hill fog over western hills and mountains. A broad band of heavy rain moving slowly east across the country on Friday night, with strong south-westerly winds. Brighter and showery conditions over the weekend, but staying windy, with brisk west or south-westerly winds.

Monday 21 December – Sunday 27 December

A mild & wet start. Turning colder by Christmas.

The first half of this week will continue in the same vein as the previous week, with additional low pressure areas continuing to track north-eastwards over the UK. Because we have relatively high pressure to the north of the UK, the north Atlantic low pressure track is displaced a bit further south than where it would normally be in December. This means that Wales and south-west England will continue to bear the brunt of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall, rather than western Scotland and Cumbria.

Milder than average conditions in the early part of the week, due to a combination of south-westerly winds, extensive cloud cover, rain and often windy weather. This will prevent a frost forming at night. However, there is a slight risk that Scotland and even northern England could get into some chillier air on Tuesday 22nd and Wednesday 23rd , if the low pressure areas fail to push up quite as far over the UK. Some forecast computer models support this risk. This would mean the chance of a slight frost at night here, and maybe some sleet and snow over the mountains of Wales and northern UK.

By Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, confidence is growing for at least a couple of days of colder and brighter weather, as winds change to a north-westerly direction and a ridge of high pressure then moves in from the west. Scattered wintry showers in this north-westerly flow may fall as snow, raising the possibility of a white Christmas in parts of the UK! Scotland and the hillier parts of northern England and Wales stand the best chance. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days. Some sunshine by day, but a frost is very likely at night for many places.

Additional fronts moving in at the end of week will bring some rain. A slight chance of this falling as snow for a time as the fronts move into colder air over the UK.

Monday 28 December – Sunday 10 January

Changeable, with cold & mild spells alternating

The latest long range forecast models are having a hard time finding some consistency and predictability during this period, with a lack of any robust signals for either sustained cold weather or sustained mild, wet and windy weather.

What seems fairly clear, though, is that the north Atlantic low pressure track should remain active and keep fronts moving towards the UK at fairly regular intervals. Transient high pressure ridges are predicted to shift over the UK from time to time, giving us a few days break from the rain, but a prolonged dry spell doesn't seem likely.

At the same time, there is also a signal for a large area of high pressure to remain over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and north-west Russia. This feature will help to steer low pressure areas to the south of the UK at times, allowing for less rain and wind over Scotland, but wet and windy weather over south-western UK at times.

Similar weather patterns over Europe in the recent past have resulted in a highly changeable weather regime over the UK. Even more so than usual. It's very likely that there will be another cold spell during this time, with the risk of some short-lived sleet and snow and overnight frost. This variable weather pattern will certainly keep long range forecasters on their toes!

Further ahead

Any updates to the festive season weather forecast will be covered, but we will start to look in more detail at the key trends for the first half of January 2021.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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US snow storm: New York and East Coast warned of 60cms in biggest snow storm in years

"America's east coast is about to be hit by what could be the biggest winter storm for years, with 50 million people in the path of the snow. Up to two feet (60cm) of snow is expected to fall along the eastern seaboard, stretching from North Carolina up through New England in the north east.

"For much of the area, right along the coast, we are going to have a mix of rain, snow and maybe some sleet and freezing rain," said Sarah Johnson, a weather service meteorologist in New Jersey.

"As you get farther inland, you will see more predominant snow." Mayor of New York City Bill de Blasio asked people to "take it seriously" in a message posted online. Mr de Blasio added there could wind gusts of up to 50mph and snow cover of 30cm, urging New Yorkers to take precautions ahead of the storm's arrival."

 

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NEWS.SKY.COM

Schools in New York City could close again - but rather than a snow day, pupils will be expected to take part in online learning .

 

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Japan: Snow traps 1,000 drivers in frozen traffic jam

"Rescuers are trying to free more than 1,000 vehicles which have been stranded on a highway for two days after a heavy snow storm struck Japan. Authorities have distributed food, fuel and blankets to the drivers on the Kanetsu expressway, which connects the capital Tokyo to Niigata, in the north.

The snow, which began on Wednesday evening, has caused multiple traffic jams along the road. It has also left more than 10,000 homes in the north and west without power.

A Kyodo News report said that there were multiple reports of congestion at different points of the Kanetsu expressway. The gridlock began when a trailer got stuck in snow on Wednesday night."

 

_116150438_hi064856701.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Heavy snow has left drivers stranded on a highway in Japan, some of them since Wednesday night.

 

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