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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and often wet, but less cold later.

_________________________________

Wednesday 13 November – Sunday 17 November

Unsettled, cold at times, with frequent rain

Low pressure is likely to be near or over the UK, especially across the south, throughout the rest of this week and the coming weekend. From Wednesday, low pressure will slide across Ireland and bring outbreaks of rain to the Southwest and Wales, as well as Northern Ireland later. Eastern England and Scotland will stay mostly fine and dry, but a few isolated showers in northern Scotland may bring some hail to a few spots.

On Thursday, this low pressure system will head into the English Channel, bringing a slow-moving and weakening front over the south. Although the front is fairly weak, some northerly winds on the northern side will help bring outbreaks of heavy rain into the Midlands and East Anglia. Through the evening and overnight the front will drift northwards into southern parts of northern England, but heavy rain will tend to ease. There is a risk of a some areas in the Midlands, especially the East Midlands, seeing flooding from more heavy rain where river levels are already high.

The end of the week and start of the weekend will see this low pressure linger to the southeast of the UK and drifting into the North Sea. This will keep much of England and Wales wet and windy, while Scotland stays drier with a brisk northerly wind. There is a chance of some locally heavy downpours in the East on Saturday, with further flooding risks. However, by Sunday a ridge of high pressure will build in from the west, bringing a respite to the wet weather. It will turn cooler with brisk northerly winds bringing in some cold, polar air.

Monday 18 November – Sunday 24 November

Cold start but turning milder then wetter

For the last full week of November, little change is expected to the overall weather pattern for the UK. We are likely to still see low pressure overhead or nearby keeping things unsettled and a bit cooler than normal. This low will have some slow-moving and weak fronts at times, and these will bring some longer outbreaks of rain for some parts of the country while elsewhere there are some lengthy dry spells and fine, sunny days.

As the low pressure centre shifts around, there is a chance that we may occasionally see a weak ridge of high pressure creep in. On Monday 18th one of these highs looks like it will move in from the west. With low pressure to the east bringing in some colder polar air from the north, the high pressure will make Monday night feel very cold with widespread frost across the country. Low pressure returning for the rest of the week will see things stay a bit milder and unsettled, with a risk of some locally heavy rain. This will likely trigger some localised flooding.

For the end of the week and weekend, we should start to see a gradual shift in the weather pattern as low pressure becomes more entrenched to the west and southwest of the UK. This will keep things unsettled and wet at times, but it will also shift the winds to a more southerly direction and tap into some milder Mediterranean air. Temperatures should tend to be closer to normal, for the time of year by the weekend, bringing some relief from the recent colder weather.

Monday 25 November – Sunday 8 December

Gradually shifting to more typical winter weather

Towards the end of November and through the first week of December, we expect there to be a gradual shift from the wet and unsettled conditions seen so often during October and November to a more typical winter scenario. This will see high pressure to the east, across Russia and Scandinavia weaken and allow Atlantic weather systems to return into North Europe, bringing more active fronts. These fronts will be faster-moving and bring brief outbreaks of heavy rain and strong winds at times.

The main change is that warm fronts and high pressure to the southwest will tend to send more tropical air into the UK, lifting our temperatures from below average to near or a bit above average. Overnight frosts and hill-snow will gradually become less likely, but there may be a few crisp days and nights. There is a risk that weather systems may bring some very strong winds as well. There is a chance that this strong high pressure over Russia will stick around further into December. If this happens, things will stay cooler with some longer outbreaks of rain and lighter winds. As the days continue to shorten, the chances of snow will increase in the hills and even for lowlands, mainly for Scotland.

Further ahead

How's the weather shaping up as we move closer to Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Monday 18 Nov - Wednesday 27 Nov

A frosty start to Monday with some patchy mist or freezing fog. The rest of the day will be cold and cloudy with some showers across eastern areas, staying largely dry in the west. Despite low confidence in this period, the start of next week should be drier and brighter for many but it will be cold. There is a possibility of rain in the west, which may fall as hill snow at times. By the end of next week, there may be a switch to relatively milder conditions with winds becoming more southerly. Further rain and strong winds look to continue in western areas initially with a risk of snow on higher ground. Meanwhile further east, drier and more settled weather is expected.

Thursday 28 Nov - Thursday 12 Dec

The start of the period will see some settled weather in the east with rain, strong winds and possible gales in the west. Through early December, confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This would bring drier conditions for many through the day with a chance of frost and fog developing overnight. Temperatures look to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Snow weather warning: Hazardous driving conditions reported

Quote

 

Heavy snow has stranded vehicles and made some roads impassable in mid and south Wales. A Met Office yellow weather warning for snow was issued for 11 of Wales' 22 counties but ended at 10:00 GMT. A second yellow warning for rain covers 13 counties and is in place until 23:45 on Thursday.

Traffic analysts Inrix warned of hazardous driving conditions on some roads in Powys, Ceredigion and Neath Port Talbot. No school closures have been reported.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50376070

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UK weather: Flooded parts of England prepare for 'danger to life' rain

 

Quote

Parts of the East Midlands and Yorkshire have been warned that they could see further devastating floods. The Met Office has issued a warning that there could be a danger to life in parts of the region that are still recovering from floods which began last week. A yellow weather warning for rain is in place for areas around Nottingham, Sheffield and Doncaster from 9am today.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-flooded-parts-of-england-prepare-for-danger-to-life-rain-11860683?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Milder than recently but staying wet and breezy

_________________________________

Saturday 16 November – Sunday 24 November

Often unsettled but slowly turning milder

This weekend, much of the UK will see a lot of cloud together with showery outbreaks of rain. The best of any lengthier periods of dry weather will be over Northern Ireland, western Scotland and southeast England where a few brighter intervals are possible. Temperatures will be close to average for many areas this weekend but Scotland will be rather cold. Drier and brighter but chillier weather is likely to develop for a time early next week as a high pressure ridge topples in from the north-west. A widespread frost is possible on Monday night

A slow recovery in temperatures is then expected through the middle to latter part of next week as chilly northerly winds give way to milder south or south-easterlies. However, it is likely to become more unsettled again with outbreaks of rain spreading from the west. It looks like western and south-western parts of the UK will have the most prolonged rainfall with a risk of localised flooding. Further east and north across the UK, there should also be some rain at times but with lower rainfall totals.

There is a slight risk that colder air lingers or returns to northern areas of the UK but, at present, we expect milder air to make inroads northwards through the week.

Monday 25 November – Sunday 1 December

Wet and breezy at times but quite mild

November is expected to end on a damp and breezy theme. Low pressure areas are likely to be often centred somewhere to the west of the UK, bringing bands of rain and showers at times. Brisk southerly winds are expected at times too. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be above average, with western areas wettest and windiest. Temperatures should be often near or a little above the seasonal average. Therefore, the risk of snow looks to be quite supressed. Night frosts should be infrequent. There is a slight chance that high pressure ends up being nearer to the east of the UK than expected, which would bring a drier week for the east.

Monday 2 December – Sunday 15 December

Quite mild but wet. Potentially turning windy

Indications are for the first half of December to be influenced by low pressure systems. These low pressure areas likely to bring wet and breezy conditions at times, initially most frequent over western parts of the UK. By the second week of December, there are signs of more widespread wet weather with the potential for strong winds at times as low pressure areas pass to the north of the UK. However, it should stay fairly mild with temperatures often alternating between average and above average. However, there is a chance that high pressure remains nearer to the south of the UK than expected, which would bring drier and calmer conditions to the south and east, in particular.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see whether confidence has increased for an unsettled but milder outlook. Will the weather stay wet and breezy for the General Election week?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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UK weather forecast: Danger to life warning for ice as temperatures drop to -9C

 

Quote

Forecasters have issued a danger to life ice warning as temperatures plummet to as low as -9C tonight. If the mercury drops to -9C it will be the coldest night of the season so far, the Met Office said. An ice alert for the Highlands, Orkney and Shetland islands is in force today, with the worst of the weather expected to end by 10am.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-forecast-danger-to-life-warning-for-ice-as-temperatures-drop-to-9c/ar-BBWUPB2?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Where? - no warnings at all.

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WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

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There were warning issued last night:

Quote

 

-!- Irssi: Met Office Warnings: Yellow Warning of Ice affecting Scotland (Orkney & Shetland)
-!- Irssi: URL: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=OS&from=rss&sn=d4338e6e-5284-4c94-8333-461a38152f8a
-!- Irssi: Description: Yellow Warning of Ice affecting Scotland (Orkney & Shetland) : Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands valid from 2300 Sun 17 Nov to 1000 Mon 18 Nov

-!- Irssi: Met Office Warnings: Yellow Warning of Ice affecting Scotland (Highlands & Eilean Siar)
-!- Irssi: URL: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=HE&from=rss&sn=d4338e6e-5284-4c94-8333-461a38152f8a
-!- Irssi: Description: Yellow Warning of Ice affecting Scotland (Highlands & Eilean Siar) : Highland valid from 2300 Sun 17 Nov to 1000 Mon 18 Nov

 

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and breezy at times but turning milder

_________________________________

Wednesday 20 November – Sunday 24 November

Turning milder. Wettest in the southwest

Wednesday will see a lot of dry weather for many with bright or sunny periods but a brisk southeasterly wind will make it feel chilly. The far west and southwest of the UK will be cloudier, though, with patchy rain. Chilly in the north and east on Wednesday night with a patchy frost. Thursday and Friday will be cloudier at times and breezy with a brisk southeasterly wind and some increasingly patchy rain gradually spreading from the southwest to the northeast.

Temperatures will rise a little, with most places escaping a frost during the nights. This weekend will also be cloudy at times with a low pressure area passing to the south, bringing showery outbreaks of rain but with some drier interludes as well. A little milder than recently with most places escaping a frost during the nights. However, frost is still possible locally in western Scotland.

Monday 25 November – Sunday 1 December

Wet and breezy at times but quite mild

A damp and breezy end to the month. Low pressure areas are likely to be often centred somewhere to the west of the UK, bringing bands of rain and showers. Brisk southerly winds are expected at times too. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be above average, with western areas wettest and windiest.

It is likely to be milder than recently with temperatures often above the seasonal average. Therefore, any frost should be localised and infrequent. There is a chance that low pressure areas track further east at times later in the week. If this happens, it would remain showery and windy but temperatures would fall nearer to the average, with less mild west or northwesterly winds.

Monday 2 December – Sunday 15 December

Mild but wet. Potentially windy at times

The outlook for the first half of December indicates low pressure systems passing to the west and the north of the UK, dominating the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to bring wet and breezy conditions at times, with the wettest and windiest conditions likely to be over western and northern parts of the UK, where above average rainfall amounts are anticipated. It should be mild, with temperatures generally above the average for the time of year, thanks to prevailing southerly and westerly winds.

There are indications that the low pressure track could become stronger for a time around the second week of December perhaps bringing very wet conditions with the threat of some strong winds. However, there are chances that high pressure could stay close to southeastern Britain, which would lead to drier and calmer conditions there. Only a slight risk of significantly colder weather developing by mid-month. A mild outlook currently looks most likely.

Further ahead

Any signs of snow in the forecast in the run-up to Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Good grief that makes for really grim reading.

almost makes it sound like winter's over before it's even started! 

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Good grief that makes for really grim reading.

Hard to compare that forecast with current strat and trop output.

 

I notice the reference to "slight risk of significantly colder weather" so keep your eyes on that.

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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hard to compare that forecast with current strat and trop output.

 

I notice the reference to "slight risk of significantly colder weather" so keep your eyes on that.

I know what they are seeing, they are seeing extensive high pressure across Europe with a rampant Atlantic ..(+NAO)..

Obviously  i and many others hope the models will throw a curve ball..

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1207079.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is facing a colossal weather bomb that in a matter of days will bring brutal snow storms to the entire UK along with sub-zero chills which could paralyse the nation.
Quote

The latest weather maps from Netweather TV show Britain faces snow storms and biting temperatures on December 5 and 6.

Well at least they linked to Netweather TV....but still a little too much excitement expressed in their descriptive narrative of a bit of seasonal weather on the way.

Edited by dodge

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UK snow warning: Britain to be ENGULFED in brutal Arctic snow storms – new maps issued

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BRITAIN is facing a colossal weather bomb that in a matter of days will bring brutal snow storms to the entire UK along with sub-zero chills which could paralyse the nation.

The latest weather maps from Netweather TV show Britain faces snow storms and biting temperatures on December 5 and 6. On December 5, large sections of Wales and the Midlands are covered by red on the charts, forecasting a high snow risk of 75 percent or more.

Meanwhile, in the south parts of Devon and Cornwall as well as Hampshire, Buckinghamshire and Surrey face a snow risk of up to 75 percent. London and the south west coast will also suffer the effects of the freezing temperatures, according to weather maps from WXCharts for the same period. Wind speed will peak at 30mph, according to WXCharts, and snow depth will be up to 25cm in Inverness and Cardiff on December 6.

Elsewhere in Manchester, Newcastle and Liverpool snow depth will be between 5-10cm. Another shocking weather charts show a huge, angry, red and orange snow front barrelling towards the UK from the Arctic, on December 6.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1207079/UK-snow-warning-met-office-latest-snow-storms-map

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nearly p1553d myself!!!    a  huge red and orange angry snow bomb!!!

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