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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The extreme weather and an outbreak of heather beetle, which has decimated food supplies in the Scottish Highlands, has been blamed for the decision to cancel all grouse shooting on Her Majesty’s estate in Aberdeenshire.

“The torrential rain has put a stop to fly fishing on the River Dee so there it not much to do up in Balmoral at the moment.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/08/12/grouse-shooting-cancelled-balmoral-due-shortage-birds/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Cauliflower shortages as extreme weather kills crops

Britain is experiencing a cauliflower shortage after extreme weather killed off much of this year's crops. Heavy rainfall in June destroyed crops in Lincolnshire, and alternative European supplies wilted in last month's heatwave. Cauliflower prices have soared and some farmers have suffered financial losses after the destruction of their crops.

The shortages were described as "very concerning" by a spokesman for the Brassica Growers Association.

Other brassica - including cabbage, broccoli and Brussels sprouts - are also in short supply.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49330210

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet initially, then drier and calmer

_________________________________

Wednesday 14 August – Sunday 18 August

Unsettled at times and rather cool

An unsettled outlook for the remainder of this week with low pressure areas bringing rain and brisk winds at times from the Atlantic. On Wednesday, large parts of the UK are likely to have an unsettled and decidedly cool day as a low pressure area moves in from the west. Outbreaks of rain, some heavy, will spread eastwards over many areas, accompanied by brisk winds in the south. However, southeast Scotland and the far north of England may escape with something drier with only patchy rain there. A chance of thunder, too, within the heavier spells of rain over central areas of England.

Thursday will be breezy and showery for a while with brisk westerly winds but also sunshine at times. Later in the day, the showers will tend to fade from most areas and the winds should ease, thanks to a high pressure ridge approaching from the west. However, the drier weather will be short-lived with further wet and breezy weather then sweeping eastwards across the country on Friday. This weekend is also set to be wet and windy at times with scattered showers or more prolonged spells of rain. A risk of strong winds over England and Wales on Sunday, with gusts perhaps strong enough to bring some branches down from trees.

Monday 19 August – Sunday 25 August

Turning calmer and less wet than recently

A breezy and showery start to next week is likely. Some of the showers could be heavy on Monday, particularly in the north and west. It will feel cool, too, in the brisk winds. However, there are indications for a change in the weather as the week progresses, associated with a weakening of the jet stream. The jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds at around 8 to 11km above the earth's surface and this has recently been driving rain and wind-producing low pressure areas across the UK.

As the jet stream weakens we should see conditions becoming calmer and less wet than recently although there will still be occasional rain. Temperatures should slowly tend to recover after a cool start to the week. Most areas should have spells of sunshine, perhaps with the best of these later in the week.
There is a slight chance, though, that the wet and breezy conditions persist longer than expected through the week.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 8 September

Rather warm with some fine days likely

The end of this month should continue the trend to drier and calmer conditions thanks to a weaker jet stream and higher pressure than recently. There could be occasional spells of rain but most places will be much drier than recently with some fine and bright days likely. In any lengthier spells of sunshine, it is likely to feel pleasant and temperatures are expected to rise above the seasonal average for most.

For the start of September, which marks the start of the meteorological autumn, we should continue to see less wet and less windy weather than recently. The weather is likely to be fairly mixed with occasional rain but some decent periods of drier and settled weather too. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above the seasonal average. However, there is a risk that wetter and windier could return from the west, with this risk highest for northern areas.

Further ahead

After autumn-like weather at times so far this month, we should finally see a change to some lengthier dry and calmer spells of weather in the coming weeks. We will take another look at the risks of any wet and windy weather returning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

NOT OVER YET: UK weather forecast – Heatwave to return as Asian super-storm sends heat blast our way in 10 days

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9721972/uk-weather-forecast-heatwave-met-office-2/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Met office 10 day trend

Next 5 days

Low pressure
Rain at times
Breezy and cool

Days 6 - 10

High pressure
Drier
Sunnier

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Bank Holiday weather: Blustery showers and no heatwave in sight

Quote

 

Further blustery showers are forecast for the next few days across the UK and forecasters have dampened hopes of a Bank Holiday heatwave. This weekend will see more sunshine than in recent days with maximum temperatures set to be 21C (69F) in the South about around 19C (66F) in the North.

Forecasters say there will be a "gradual improvement" in the weather over the next week but it is unlikely next weekend will see temperatures soaring.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/blustery-showers-and-no-bank-holiday-heatwave-in-sight-11787117?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming less unsettled

_________________________________

Saturday 17 August – Sunday 25 August

Changeable with spells of wet and windy weather

After a fairly windy and wet weekend for some areas of the country, next week is likely to start on an unsettled note as low pressure remains nearby. Monday will be breezy with showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain, although it doesn't look as wet or as windy as recent days. A weak ridge of high pressure building across the UK means that Tuesday will be drier and calmer with widespread sunny periods and just a few scattered showers. Wednesday will start dry for many areas, but an Atlantic low will push cloud and rain across many areas of the country by the end of the day, with winds also likely to pick up across the north of the UK.

Thursday also looks unsettled and showery as the low pressure system remains nearby. In our last update it looked likely that high pressure would build across the UK bringing drier, warmer and calmer weather to most areas in time for the weekend. Whilst that pattern still looks possible, it now seems more likely that we will see low pressure continuing to be the main influence on our weather, and the unsettled conditions persisting into the weekend. It is worth noting that there is greater than normal uncertainty in the forecast for the end of next week, so we may yet see a drier and sunnier weekend.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 1 September

Probably drier and warmer, but a chance of rain

The last few days of August and first day of September should feature some relatively fine and dry weather as high pressure has more of an influence on the weather across north-west Europe. However, there will be the chance that the low pressure which featured in the previous week lingers into this period, or that we see low pressure systems moving southeastwards from Iceland across the UK as they head into Central Europe.

The most likely picture is for the UK to be drier and calmer than normal, with a decent amount of sunshine and with temperatures a little above normal in most areas. If low pressure remains nearby or pushes in from the NW, then we could see it remaining wetter and windier, and temperatures would be near or perhaps a little below normal for the time of year in many areas. There is continuing uncertainty over the forecast at this range, so confidence is generally low compared to normal for this period.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 15 September

Little more unsettled but some fine weather likely

The ridge of high pressure we expect to be across North West Europe at the end of August should drift eastwards towards Scandinavia and North East Europe during the first couple of weeks of September. That means that the relatively calm, dry and warm weather is likely to give way to something more changeable, with rainfall probably returning to near normal in most areas. It should still be a little warmer and a little less windy than normal though.

Compared to the usual patterns, it looks as though the south and west of the UK is more likely to see unsettled weather than the north and east, mainly due to the proximity of high pressure over Scandinavia. However, for the UK as a whole it conditions shouldn't be too far from 'average'. Whilst confidence was below normal for the forecast for the end of August, it actually increases the further we head into September. This is due to a number of factors, but one of the main things we see is better agreement between the various forecasting techniques used to predict the weather at this range.

Further ahead

We'll take another look at the weather for the end of this month and start of next month to see if the forecast for the end of the summer looks any more certain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • A change in the weather
  • Warm and sunnier spell
  • Early September uncertainty

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/16/john-hammond-month-ahead-summers-coming-back/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warmer than normal and drier than of late

_________________________________

Wednesday 21 August – Sunday 25 August

Becoming warmer and less unsettled for many

A couple of unsettled days to come before the weather starts to settle down for many parts of the country as we head towards the weekend. Most places will have a dry morning on Wednesday, but a deep Atlantic low pressure system will push showers and outbreaks of rain into some north-western parts of the country, where it will also become rather breezy. Wednesday afternoon will see more widespread and occasionally heavy rain moving across Scotland and Northern Ireland into northern England and north Wales. Central, southern and eastern parts of the country should remain dry but will become cloudier and breezier.

Thursday will be a changeable day, with showers and longer spells of rain for many areas. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to be the wettest parts of the country on Thursday with south east England most likely to be driest. It will be another breezy day for all areas. Friday should see the start of a spell of drier, calmer and warmer weather. High pressure will keep most of England and Wales dry with sunny spells and light winds. Scotland and Northern Ireland, will probably see showers or rain, particularly northern Scotland, but there is a good chance of some drier and brighter spells. The weekend should also see a lot of dry weather across the UK with just the chance of a few showers. It looks as though it will be warm for the time of year across many areas too. For example, temperatures could reach the mid-twenties Celsius in many areas on Saturday, perhaps a little warmer in the South East.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 1 September

Warm, even hot for a time. Chance of rain later

Most of next week is expected to be warmer than normal for the time of year as broadly southerly winds bring continental air to most parts of the UK next week. The first half of the week will probably be warmer than the second half of the week, and there is a chance we will see temperatures rising significantly above normal for a time. By coincidence, this would fit into the pattern of the summer so far, which has seen spells of very warm or hot weather at the end of each June and July.

There should be a good deal of dry weather too, although with winds coming from the south there will be the chance of some heavy and thundery showers moving in from the continent. Thunderstorms are probably more likely later in the week, when we see more of a chance of weather systems starting to move in from the west. The main alternative to our expected pattern for next week is for low pressure to be more of a feature to the east of the UK, close to or over Scandinavia. If this happens, then cooler west to north-westerly winds would be more likely, so it wouldn't be as warm as we expect it to be, although the cooler weather may only be a feature later in the week.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 15 September

Unsettled at first but drier towards mid-month

Low pressure is expected to be the main feature across northern Europe at first, this expected to bring more unsettled and cooler weather to the UK. The first full week of September is likely to be a bit wetter and windier than normal for the time of year. There are signs of a change of pattern as we move towards mid-month. The most likely scenario is for the low pressure affecting northern Europe to be replaced by high pressure. This would bring drier and calmer weather to the UK, and it should become warmer too, although it is too early to say how much warmer than normal it will become.

One thing we have seen over recent weeks is that weather patterns have been a little slower to change than expected. As a result, there is a chance that the spell of unsettled weather could last a little longer into September than we expect it to. That would also mean that the drier and calmer weather hangs on a bit longer around the middle of the month, reducing the chances of another spell of wet and windy weather to around a 30% chance.

Further ahead

We should be able to give a bit more detail on the chances very warm or hot weather next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Meanwhile, further afield in Colorado a severe weather warning has been issued for flying mattresses...

Apparently the beds were set up for an outdoor cinema event in the evening. Can only assume the movie was gone with the wind...

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Hot start
  • Soon turning cooler
  • September uncertainty continues

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/23/john-hammond-month-ahead-summers-last-blast/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Very warm at first, then unsettled for a time

_________________________________

Saturday 24 August – Sunday 1 September

A hot weekend for some; more unsettled next week

The weather for the weekend and the start of next week will feature a lot of very warm, perhaps hot weather, especially for central, southern and eastern England. We are expecting above normal temperatures in most areas, with the hottest places likely to reach 30 Celsius or perhaps a little higher. It should be largely dry this weekend and on Monday, although a few scattered showers are possible across Northern Ireland and western Scotland on Saturday. There could also be a few showers for England and Wales on Sunday and Monday, and rain could move into western Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland on Monday evening.

The warm weather is expected to give way to cooler and more unsettled weather next week. There is some uncertainty over the exact timing of this transition, but it is likely to take place sometime around the middle of the week as a cold front passes south-eastwards across the country. There may be some thundery showers before this front arrives. It looks like the second half of the week will be cooler than the first half, although for many areas temperatures will remain near or perhaps above normal for the time of year. It does look likely to become more unsettled with showers and rain moving in from the west to affect some areas. However, the south of the country may avoid most of the showers as high pressure centred over mainland over Europe remains nearby. That said, there is a chance that this high pressure area moves further south, and all areas of the UK become more unsettled by the end of next week.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 8 September

Unsettled with some wet and perhaps windy weather

Low pressure is expected to be the main feature across northern Europe through most of the first full week of September. This suggests that the weather will remain unsettled, with showers and longer spells of rain for many, and a chance of some spells of breezy or windy weather with temperatures near normal. Some parts of the country could end up wetter than normal for the time of year, although at present we don't see any signs of very wet weather. There tends to be an increasing level of uncertainty in the forecast the further into the future we look. This time of year also sees an added amount of uncertainty introduced into the forecast as the North Atlantic hurricane season picks up.

Forecasting models don't always handle the impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms consistently, so generally confidence in the forecast tends to be a bit lower in September than at other times of year. The main uncertainty for the start of September is how extensive low pressure is across northern and north-western Europe. There is a chance that the weather could be wetter and windier than we expect, and it would probably be cooler than expected too. However, it is worth noting that there is still a slight chance that we will see high pressure building across western Europe at times, and the weather being calmer and drier at times.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 22 September

Turning drier and warmer than normal in most areas

The run up to mid-month should see high pressure becoming established over north-eastern Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems tending to be deflected into western and south-western Europe. This should mean that the UK sees the weather becoming less unsettled and there should be some good spells of drier weather for many areas, although the south and west of the UK could see some rain at times. Temperatures may well pick up a little above normal too. The main risk is that the low pressure systems track a little further north, bringing a continuation of the unsettled weather from earlier in September.

A slight change in pattern looks likely after mid-month, with high pressure to the south and east of us and low pressure to the north-west. This is fairly similar to the typical pattern we see for the UK, although there are signs that high pressure will be more of a feature than low pressure. The upshot of this is that the weather should be drier than normal for most areas, and there is a chance of some warmer weather developing too. The main alternative to our expected weather pattern is for low pressure to remain more of an influence i.e. windier and wetter weather for the UK with temperatures around average. This alternative has a roughly 25% chance of occurring.

Further ahead

Are there any signs that the warmth we expect to develop after the middle of September will persist towards the end of the month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

September brings sporadic high-pressure

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 August – Sunday 1 September

A return to more seasonal weather

Wednesday will be a cooler day for all areas, with west-to south-westerly winds blowing from the Atlantic delivering cooler air. However, it will still be warm in the south-east, which should see a good deal of dry and bright weather in the afternoon. Cooler elsewhere, with some patchy rain affecting Wales, Scotland and northern England. In general, most areas should become drier with some clear spells overnight, although it will become breezier in north-western areas with a front bringing further outbreaks of rain to Scotland during the day on Thursday. Meanwhile, expect a dry day with sunny spells elsewhere; rather warm in the east but cloudier with a few spots of rain edging into western areas.

Friday will be rather breezy, particularly the further north and west you go, with a front continuing to bring a lot of cloud and further outbreaks of rain to northern Britain. Meanwhile, there should be a good deal of dry, bright and warm weather across south-eastern areas. Increasingly persistent rain will edge into Scotland and Northern Ireland overnight, and the associated area of low pressure will bring heavy rain and brisk winds here on Saturday. Further rain looks to edge into Wales and western England too, although the far south and south-east should remain dry and warm with rather hazy sunshine. As the first day of Meteorological Autumn, Sunday will certainly be a shock to the system, with temperatures falling below average for most under a keen north-westerly breeze, which will bring frequent heavy and thundery showers.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 8 September

A chilly start but warming up later

Monday will perhaps be even cooler than Sunday, with a west to north-westerly flow continuing for many areas, bringing further showers also. These could bring a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon, even though temperatures may struggle to climb out of the mid-teens Celsius for many areas. The showers should tend to become less frequent later in the day and may fade entirely overnight. Confidence lowers somewhat from Tuesday to Thursday, when high pressure is expected to build back across the UK from the south-west.

As a result, lower pressure is likely to lift north of the country, allowing a more widespread return to drier and calmer weather by the second half of the week. However, it is the timing of the transition which is rather uncertain, and there could be an extended period of more unsettled conditions for a time. By the end of the week though, there is reasonable agreement that a more extensive high pressure area will extend across the country from the south-west, and although the week will start on a chilly note, it is likely to end on a warmer one.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 22 September

High pressure waxing and waning

The second week of September looks to start where the first week left off. High pressure could remain fairly close to the UK for a time, maintaining a few days of rather calm and settled weather, with temperatures rising above average for most places. The warmest weather looks likely across central, southern and south-western Britain, as winds should be lightest here. Occasional breezier and damp conditions may edge into Scotland at times. Confidence is lower as we head towards the middle of the month due to a lack of agreement between the computer models, although occasional wetter and windier bursts of weather look more likely to extend further south across the country.

These could bring a few cooler days with gusty winds and a risk of more widespread showers too. Scotland and north-east England would be most favoured to see any persistent rain. However, such conditions would only be temporary, as high pressure and more settled weather is never likely to remain too far away to the south-west. This should break-up any unsettled conditions with brief periods of dry and fine weather. In general, temperatures look to be around normal, although parts of England and Wales should experience the lion's share of any warmer days. Beyond mid-month, we anticipate high pressure to become more extensive across the UK and surrounding areas once again. This should provide a more extended period of largely dry and settled weather, with the early Autumn sunshine and light winds allowing temperatures to climb above average for all. However, the far north and north-east could occasionally be brushed by the odd weak front moving down from the north-west. Occasional spots of rain are possible here, although it looks to remain largely dry elsewhere.

Further ahead

Will high pressure remain close-by as we go through September?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Japan floods: Three people dead as heavy rains pound south

Three people are reported to have died as heavy rains pound south-western Japan. Authorities have asked almost one million people to evacuate, warning "unprecedented" levels of rain fall could cause the flooding of rivers, trigger landslides and submerge houses. "It is a situation where you should do your best to protect your lives," the weather agency said.

Japan's southern island of Kyushu has seen weeks of heavy winds and rain. Authorities there had initially issued a level five warning - the highest - and advised more than 800,000 people to leave their homes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49492706?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Cool start to September
  • Eyes on ‘Dorian’
  • Surprises later in the month?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/30/john-hammond-month-ahead-taste-early-autumn/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often most unsettled in the north and west

_________________________________

Saturday 31 August – Sunday 8 September

Rather unsettled and cool and times

On Saturday, an active front will bring heavy rain to western Scotland in the morning, with further rain for much of England and Wales through the day, while the far south-east will see some dry, bright and warm weather for a time. A chilly night will follow, with frequent showers for western Scotland and Northern Ireland, and lengthy clear periods elsewhere. Sunday will be a cool day for all, with frequent showers and thunderstorms developing across north-western areas, while the south will be driest and sunniest. Many areas will be dry on Sunday night, although it will be particularly chilly as temperatures fall away under lengthy clear spells.

For much of next week, high pressure will remain to the south or south-west of the UK. On Monday, a front will bring further cloud and rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland, while the rest of the country will be dry with lighter winds and sunny spells. A warmer day in the south and south-east on Tuesday, where there will be a good deal of dry and bright weather, while it will remain wetter and cloudier in the west and north. A band of patchy rain will slide south-east overnight, leaving Wednesday as a cooler day with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, perhaps bringing a few rumbles of thunder. Thursday looks to be particularly chilly, with further heavy showers moving in on a north-westerly flow.

By Friday and next weekend, it looks more likely that an area of low pressure will impact the country. This will bring cooler, cloudier weather with a risk of rain for many areas on Friday and Saturday, although Sunday may see more widespread dry and calm weather.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 15 September

A few chilly days, but high pressure close-by

The following week may start off with high pressure lingering close to the UK, bringing a calm, largely dry and settled start to the week, perhaps with some overnight mist and fog. However, this isn't likely to last - with high pressure most often lingering to the west or south-west of the UK. As a result, northern and north-western Britain are most likely to see occasional north-westerly bursts of cooler air bringing some showers from the Atlantic, and could occasionally catch the odd frontal system, bringing more general cloud and outbreaks of rain.

Elsewhere, lengthier periods of dry and fine weather seem more likely, although they could occasionally be broken up by cloud and spots of rain approaching from the north-west. These sporadic bursts of cooler air are likely to keep temperatures slightly below normal across the north and north-east, and it will feel particularly chilly here in areas exposed to the showers and breeze.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 29 September

Pressure slowly rising across the country

It looks like high pressure will gradually become more extensive across the country from the south-west after mid-month, although this will be a rather slow process. During the third week of September, low pressure areas are perhaps more likely to impact Scandinavia than the UK, although they could occasionally extend their influence westwards towards our shores. While confidence is rather low on the exact timing and extent of these episodes, they could bring some cooler, cloudier and wetter weather at times, with blustery showers or outbreaks of rain perhaps more likely to impact northern and eastern areas. However, the proximity of higher pressure means some lengthy drier, sunnier and warmer interludes, with these perhaps becoming more frequent later in the week.

By the final week of September, it looks like high pressure will have a lengthier stay across the UK, and this should encourage more widespread dry, warm and fine conditions to develop as breezes more frequently come from the south-west. Areas of low pressure could quickly move east across the Atlantic, mainly close to Iceland, although some rather wet and breezy weather could linger across northern and north-western Britain. However, much of the country should still experience a dry and rather warm end to the month. Forecasting the British weather at this time of the year is made especially tricky by the development of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, and there is about a 40% chance that we will see a wetter, windier and cooler pattern lingering across the UK by the end of September.

Further ahead

Will the end of September remain as a reliable source of fine, warm and settled weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Hurricane Dorian: UK set for summer blast as monster US tempest sweeps towards Britain

BRITAIN could be in for a late blast of summer warmth thanks to the knock-on effects of a monster hurricane about to smash the United States.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1172353/Hurricane-dorian-tracker-news-florida-uk-weather-forecast-latest-summer

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at first with calmer weather later

_________________________________

Wednesday 4 September – Sunday 8 September

Rather unsettled with some chilly days

Overnight rain in the South will clear away early Wednesday morning, leaving things mostly dry and bright for the afternoon. However, a different story will play out further north were a low pressure system will drift into Scotland from the northwest, bringing heavy and thundery showers with some very strong wind gusts to the western coasts. As the low heads into the North Sea on Thursday, heavy showers will spread into South Scotland and North England. The Midlands and further south will likely escape any of the heavy or thundery showers, as well as the strongest winds.

Winds will ease Thursday as a weak front brings cloudy skies and patches of light rain or drizzle to most in the morning, although the driest conditions will be in the Southeast. A drier and brighter afternoon for all, but by Friday a cold front will move in from the northwest, bringing showers to most of the country, lingering the longest in the South. Further scattered showers are expected behind the front in West Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the odd rumble of thunder is possible here.

The weekend generally looks a bit more settled with high pressure building in behind the cold front, although a brisk north wind will keep things feeling rather cold on the east coast on Saturday. A few scattered light showers are likely through the weekend, mainly in the north, while mostly cloudy skies persist across the UK. However, things will trend a bit drier and warmer into Sunday afternoon, especially for England and Wales, with some longer sunny spells expected.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 15 September

Unsettled with some dry spells in the South

The brief settled spell from high pressure that is expected over the weekend may well come to a speedy end on Monday as the high weakens and shifts further south, allowing a frontal system to push in from the northwest. A cold front sweeping across the country will likely bring widespread wind, at times heavy, to most places, although the Southeast should at least see some drier weather for a time. The brisk northerly winds behind the front will make for a rather chilly night with lows widely in single figures.

This will then become the trend for the rest of the week with several fronts pushing in from the west keeping the weather unsettled and breezy for most. High pressure is expected to remain nearby, however, usually to the southwest or south, and this will mean that between fronts there will likely be some drier and calmer spells. These will occur more often in the southern half of the UK, which Scotland and Northern Ireland likely staying mostly cloudy and wet consistently.

Confidence is fairly high on the overall pattern, but there is a lot of potential variability on the day-to-day specifics. A frontal system expected mid-week is associated with the remains of Hurricane Dorian, and some major chances are likely if the storm makes landfall in the United States. There is a risk, about 30%, that high pressure will actually become more extensive, pushing fronts off to the north and bringing in some warmer and drier air from the south.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 29 September

Rain gradually clearing to the north

It currently looks like high pressure will gradually become more extensive across the country from the southwest after mid-September, although this will be a rather slow process. During the third week of September, low pressure areas are perhaps more likely to impact Scandinavia than the UK, although they could occasionally extend their influence westwards towards our shores. While confidence is rather low on the exact timing and extent of these episodes, they could bring some cooler, cloudier and wetter weather at times, with blustery showers or outbreaks of rain perhaps more likely to impact northern and eastern areas. However, the proximity of higher pressure means some lengthy drier, sunnier and warmer weather is in store as well, with these perhaps becoming more frequent later in the week.

By the final week of September, it looks like high pressure will have a lengthier stay across the UK, and this should encourage more widespread dry, warm and fine conditions as breezes more frequently come from the south-west. Areas of low pressure could quickly move east across the Atlantic, mainly close to Iceland, although some rather wet and breezy weather could linger across northern areas of Britain. However, much of the country should still experience a dry and rather warm end to the month.

Forecasting the British weather at this time of the year is made especially tricky by the development of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic which can have a large impact on the weather pattern here. There is about a 40% chance that we will see a wetter, windier and cooler pattern lingering across the UK by the end of September.

Further ahead

Just how unsettled, or not, might the end of September be and will autumn hold off into October?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Ex-‘Dorian’ brushes by
  • Warmer spell after mid-month
  • Cooling after the Equinox

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/09/06/john-hammond-month-ahead-feeling-ripples-dorian/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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