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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often mild and settled days

_________________________________________

Wednesday 13 February—Sunday 17 February

Mostly mild and dry. Some rain in the northwest.

The rest of this week will be often dry and mild for many but north-western parts of the UK will stay breezier with some rain at times. On Wednesday, much of England and Wales will be dry with bright or sunny spells. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudier at times and breezy with spots of rain in places. It will be quite mild for much of the UK with highs of typically 9 to 13 Celsius.

Through Thursday and Friday, large parts of the UK will be dry and settled with some periods of sunshine. South to south-westerly winds will bring mild conditions with highs mostly in the range of 10 to 14 Celsius. A few sheltered spots are likely to reach 15 Celsius, perhaps with north-east Wales experiencing the highest temperatures. However, later on Friday, rain may reach northwest Scotland along with Northern Ireland.

This weekend the mild theme continues. However, western and north-western areas of the UK are likely to become cloudier with patchy rain as fronts edge closer from the Atlantic. The east and south-east of England should remain dry and settled throughout.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February

Damp and breezy initially, then drier and settled

The first few days of next week are likely to become a little less mild with westerly winds freshening for a time and patchy rain spreading eastwards. Rain is most likely in the west and north but some should get through to eastern and southern areas for a time as well. For the second half of next week, it is expected to become calmer and drier as high pressure moves nearer again. There should be some fine and mild days but one or two chilly nights can be expected as well with a touch of night frost in places.

The main uncertainty is over the extent of any rain in the first half of the week - there is a slight chance that high pressure persists, keeping conditions dry and settled throughout.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 10 March

Dry and settled at first, then wetter later.

Indications are that the remainder of February will see a continuation of often dry and settled conditions, thanks to a nearby area of high pressure. There should be some fairly mild days but the nights could be chilly at times with patchy night frosts. No significant cold weather appears likely. However, there are chances that high pressure moves further north than we expect, which could draw in somewhat chillier winds from the east or south-east. In this scenario, temperatures would likely stay nearer to normal for the time of year.

Into early March, high pressure could become replaced by low pressure areas, bringing an increase in rainfall and wind. Wetter and breezier conditions appear to be most likely to develop in the north and west. Central and eastern areas of England could stay relatively dry and calm. It is expected to stay rather mild with a lack of any significant or prolonged cold weather.

Next Update

We will take another look at early March to see if our relatively calm and mild weather is likely to break-down for a time then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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5 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Calgary is experiencing its coldest spell of Winter weather in 21 years....

https://globalnews.ca/news/4946862/calgary-cold-weather-streak/

Given its latitude and continental climate, that is something.

Looks like the SSW worked from some.

the whole of Alberta is ..here in Edmonton we broke the same record yesterday.

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Next 10-days

Not much rain
High pressure
Very mild this week

Outlook

Largely dry and mild by day
Wind direction crucial
Frost and fog possible

 

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'Pineapple Express' dumps rain, snow and wind on US west coast

A so-called "Pineapple Express" is carrying rain, snow and winds to America's west coast over the next two days as forecasters warn of more chaos and destruction. An "atmospheric river" of warm air loaded with moisture is heading east from near Hawaii and is the wettest storm on the US west coast this season. Cars have been under several feet of water and vineyards flooded, forcing hundreds of Californians to evacuate their homes to escape the threat of mudslides.

https://news.sky.com/story/pineapple-express-dumps-rain-snow-and-wind-on-us-west-coast-11637222

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild, settled end to February; unsettled in March

_________________________________________

Saturday 16 February—Sunday 24 February

Rain in some areas at first, but turning drier.

High pressure will be close to the UK this weekend and much of England and Wales will be dry with some sunshine. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see rain at times thanks to a passing low pressure system. It could become quite windy across the north and west of the UK with Scotland and the Northern Isles seeing very brisk winds on Sunday. However, it will be a relatively mild weekend in all areas.

The first half of next week will also see rain affecting the north and west of the country at times with showers on Monday and Tuesday and perhaps a spell of more widespread rain on Wednesday. The south and east could also see some rain on Monday but will otherwise be largely fine and dry. The rest of the week will see high pressure building across all areas.
This will mean that the weather becomes settled and dry. Winds will be mainly from the south or south-west, so after a cool start to the week, temperatures are expected to be above normal for the time of year. Some mild days are likely, and there will be a reduced risk of overnight frosts, although the odd chilly night is still likely.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 3 March

Damp and breezy initially, then drier and settled

High pressure is expected to stick around for the last few days of February, so we expect a continuation of the dry, settled and mild weather to end the month. There is some uncertainty regarding the forecast for the start of March, but it is most likely that we will see the ridge of high pressure slowly declining to the south and east. This is likely to be a gradually process, so don't expect a sudden change to stormy weather. We will more likely see an increasing risk of rain in the north and west of the country, mainly for Scotland and Northern Ireland and it is likely to become a little windier.

However, on the whole the last days of February and first days of March are likely to be relatively dry, mild and calm. The most likely alternative to this slight shift to less settled weather is for the ridge of high pressure to remain close to the UK into the start of March, with little change to the dry, calm and mild weather. There is only a very small chance of any cool weather, and we don't see any significant indications of any cold weather at this stage.

Monday 4 March—Sunday 17 February

Briefly unsettled, then high pressure returns.

The transition from settled, calm weather to more unsettled conditions is expected to continue in early March. It is likely that we will see much more of a westerly pattern developing, with our weather most coming in from the Atlantic. This will mean wetter, windier weather for most parts of the country, although central and eastern England may avoid the worst of it. Temperatures are likely to be near normal or a little above normal for most areas, although there is a slight chance that it could become relatively cool for the time of year if winds turn more north-westerly.

The unsettled spell is likely to be relatively short-lived as we're already seeing indications that high pressure will start to build across north-west Europe around the middle of March.
In fact, there is a roughly 20% chance that the high pressure ridge could build in sooner than we expected, limiting the unsettled spell to just a few days.

Next Update

We should be able to give a bit more detail on the unsettled spell in March, and the prospects of a return to more settled weather after mid-month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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UK weather: February set to remain mild with 'above average temperatures'

Britain can expect another week of above-average weather for February after a mild beginning to the month, according to the Met Office. It comes after the unseasonably mild weather resulted in the warmest Valentine's Day in more than 20 years, meaning the UK was hotter than Spain. On Friday, a reading of 17.5C (63.5F) in Rhyl, northeast Wales, was recorded as the highest so far this month and the fourth warmest February temperature since 2008

By Friday, it will feel more like spring, with very mild air spreading in from the south and temperatures rising to 14C (57.2F) to 15C (59C) in the South East and South West, with a maximum temperature of 17C (62.6F). This year's February average is 9.8C (49.64F) so far, higher than the usual average of 8.2C (46.76F)

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-february-set-to-remain-mild-with-above-average-temperatures-11640723

 

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK weather: February set to remain mild with 'above average temperatures'

Britain can expect another week of above-average weather for February after a mild beginning to the month, according to the Met Office. It comes after the unseasonably mild weather resulted in the warmest Valentine's Day in more than 20 years, meaning the UK was hotter than Spain. On Friday, a reading of 17.5C (63.5F) in Rhyl, northeast Wales, was recorded as the highest so far this month and the fourth warmest February temperature since 2008

By Friday, it will feel more like spring, with very mild air spreading in from the south and temperatures rising to 14C (57.2F) to 15C (59C) in the South East and South West, with a maximum temperature of 17C (62.6F). This year's February average is 9.8C (49.64F) so far, higher than the usual average of 8.2C (46.76F)

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-february-set-to-remain-mild-with-above-average-temperatures-11640723

 

A late update from UK Met office from Friday 15th Feb top temperature of 18.2C, Rhyl,Colwyn Bay 65F

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40 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

A late update from UK Met office from Friday 15th Feb top temperature of 18.2C, Rhyl,Colwyn Bay 65F

That breaks the daily record which was 18.1c set in 1998

Edited by Summer Sun

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

That breaks the daily record which was 18.1c set in 1998

we'll see what the rest of this month's warmth can do with the Feb. records. FEBRUARY UK - 17.8C N.Ireland 17.9C Scotland 18.6C Wales and the hefty 19.7C from 1998 Greenwich

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

That breaks the daily record which was 18.1c set in 1998

oddly enough, Friday didn't feel anywhere near as warm as Sat and Sun here

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Warming up this week

Quote

 

Despite some recent media reports warning of cold weather ahead for the UK, temperatures will climb into the mid to high teens by the end of this week, says the Met Office. A large area of high pressure centred over continental Europe will extend across the UK this week, bringing increasingly settled conditions with dry and sunny weather for many as we head towards the weekend. 

This in combination with milder, southerly winds means temperatures will gradually rise day by day to around 15 to 18 °C for parts of the country on Friday and Saturday. Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Steve Willington, said: “By the weekend we could see temperatures almost 10 degrees higher than what we might normally expect at this time of year, so there will certainly be a spring-like feel in the air across the country. 

Looking beyond next week, Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Chris Tubbs, said: “Although temperatures next week may not be as high as what we’re expecting this weekend, it looks like temperatures will stay on the mild side for the rest of February.”

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/february-warmer

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sounds good SS, he says its still winter, I wouldn't say so

Had to laugh when he said temperatures might 'only be 13c to 15c' on Sunday if it's cloudy

 

 

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