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Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

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6 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Not forecast related but just funny - couldn't find a better place to stick it

 

Same with this one,bizzare this is.

 

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CNN really are making a meal out of Hurricane Florence...catastrophic hurricane...all due to climate change etc etc etc ...now correct me if im wrong but there have been numerous far worse storms to have hit the states well before global warming was a thing...was it that bad? c'mon

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37 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

CNN really are making a meal out of Hurricane Florence...catastrophic hurricane...all due to climate change etc etc etc ...now correct me if im wrong but there have been numerous far worse storms to have hit the states well before global warming was a thing...was it that bad? c'mon

A piece of the puzzle not fitting , so lets hammer it in anyway!

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Damage estimates before landfall $150-200bn. Damage estimates now $20bn+. It's still a lot of damage. 20-40,000 cars are estimated as needing replacement. (Houston was 600,000 but Houston roads are designed to be lower than housing and act as a flood drain network  - they did not tell us that when showing photos of extensive road flooding, or that Houston is sinking into a bowl due to water extraction and sheer weight on a clay flood plain).  If they keep exaggerating these storms then people will stop taking any notice of the warnings. (A bit like our phantom motorway warnings!)

Edited by Aleman

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21 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

CNN really are making a meal out of Hurricane Florence...catastrophic hurricane...all due to climate change etc etc etc ...now correct me if im wrong but there have been numerous far worse storms to have hit the states well before global warming was a thing...was it that bad? c'mon

And there were far more land hits of hurricanes as and more damaging in the 1950s....AGW pseudoscience propaganda...my opinion and not targeted...but I stick with it all the way

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

And there were far more land hits of hurricanes as and more damaging in the 1950s....AGW pseudoscience propaganda...my opinion and not targeted...but I stick with it all the way

 

BFTP

And now confirmation from NOAA that Hurricanes are not currently more numerous -

 

 

Quote: 

E. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

 

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups.

Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).

We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, and medium confidence that they will be more intense (higher peak winds and lower central pressures) on average. In our view, it is uncertain how the annual number of Atlantic tropical storms will change over the 21st century. All else equal, tropical cyclone surge levels should increase with sea level rise as projected for example by IPCC AR5. These assessment statements are intended to apply to climate warming of the type projected for the 21st century by prototype IPCC mid-range warming scenarios, such as A1B or RCP4.5.

The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to our tropical cyclone projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence on tropical cyclones at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

 

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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HEAVY SNOW warning: UK faces COLDEST winter for DECADE - shock long-range weather forecast

BRITAIN is facing the coldest and harshest winter for almost a decade with heavy, early snowfall threatening to blanket the nation by Christmas.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1021047/UK-weather-long-range-forecast-Britain-heavy-snow-cold-winter-2018-Met-Office

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And, from the recent exchanges in this thread, we have learned that the difference between what the scientists actually say and what the know-nothings in the media say they say remains as stark as ever...

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I would not dismiss winter scaremongering quite so readily this time. The sharp hot/cold temperature pattern over North America and the North Atlantic this year has been quite persistent and seems to have intensified of late. It has already brought early snows to Canada, Iceland and Norway,and dustings to the highest Scottish mountains. Things could always change abruptly but this pattern has been present more or less since February. (All of the UK got on the wrong side of it in March!) I would not be surprised if it lasted a few more months, in which case the UK's start to winter could be very interesting. We have already seen sharp temperature changes a few times this year, with England mostly warmer and Scotland mostly cooler but sometimes flitting between with bigger swings than normal. With Canada getting even colder and the North American and Atlantic boundary between hot and cold creeping south slightly of late, we could be setting up for something quite unusual in the UK - unless someone can tell me why this pattern might break down sometime soon. (The images are the latest week and the year to date.)

ncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman

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Must be a quiet news day if Madden is featuring in the Sun...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7320236/uk-weather-britain-could-be-hit-by-four-months-of-snow-in-coldest-winter-for-a-decade-after-heatwave/

I'm sure his wild and over the top predictions are getting earlier and earlier! 😁😉

 

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Quote

A Swiss-owned business information provider will emerge this week as the mystery buyer of MeteoGroup, the weather forecasting giant which supplies data to the BBC and British Airways.

Sky News has learnt that TBG, which is based in Zurich, will fund the purchase of MeteoGroup through DTN, a company it acquired last year from the industrial powerhouse Schneider Electric.

The takeover will follow a troubled period for MeteoGroup under the ownership of ‎General Atlantic, which initially invested in it in 2013.

Sources close to the deal, which is expected to be announced in the next couple of days, said it would enable TBG to expand its presence in the growing market for weather information services and technology.

MeteoGroup, which employs more than 100 meteorologists, has been a rare poor investment for GA, which has been a serial backer of technology‎ 'unicorns' such as Buzzfeed and Uber.

1

https://news.sky.com/story/deal-changes-outlook-for-bbc-weather-forecaster-meteogroup-11506750

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Back in the day when newspapers were written in Fleet Street, a young, inexperienced reporter was despatched 'oop north' to dredge up something newsworthy during the quiet summer recess of parliament. At the time, The Yorkshire Post used to run a column called ' Wacky Weekend' in which they'd publish all sorts of oddities. This column was picked up on by the young lad from London, unfortunately he mistook the local dialect for a spelling mistake when reporting back to his boss, thus the wacky oddity he'd read was published incorrectly.  Mad'un became Madden and being a canny chap, ever since he's made the best of the cards that life dealt him.

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UK weather: Met Office says 'four months of snow' will not happen and autumn temperatures actually likely to increase

Quote

Forecasters are predicting a balmier than normal autumn this year, shooting down reports of spell of snow lasting as long as four months.

A Met Office spokeswoman said today that from September to November, the weather is likely to be warmer than average - not colder.

It comes after Exacta weather gave a chilling warning of the coldest winter in decades with snowfall lasting up to four months.

Met Office forecaster Helen Roberts said precise predictions can only sensibly be made weeks or perhaps a couple of months ahead at most. 

She said the likelihood of a colder than average autumn was about 5%, and the likelihood of a warmer than average autumn was around 40%.

1

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-met-office-says-four-months-of-snow-will-not-happen-and-autumn-temperatures-actually-a3942831.html

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34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK weather: Met Office says 'four months of snow' will not happen and autumn temperatures actually likely to increase

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-met-office-says-four-months-of-snow-will-not-happen-and-autumn-temperatures-actually-a3942831.html

While the above clearly puts the likes of Excretaweather in their place, it also contains the claim that 'precise' forecasts can be made for up to two-months' ahead... Well, I don't know about you guys, but I've never seen any forecast, by anyone, for a two-month period, be anywhere near to what I'd call 'precise'. Even after umpteen Corbynesque, retrospective rewrites!🤔

 

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On 24/09/2018 at 12:14, Summer Sun said:

UK weather: Met Office says 'four months of snow' will not happen and autumn temperatures actually likely to increase

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-met-office-says-four-months-of-snow-will-not-happen-and-autumn-temperatures-actually-a3942831.html

Just like September was meant to be warmer than average 😳

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41 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Just like September was meant to be warmer than average 😳

The Met men were hardly the only 'experts' to make that claim, PSL?

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Of course they will be correct that the 4 months of snow wont happen, I mean 4 continuous months of snow didn't even happen in winter 63 or 47 and probably not even in the maunder minimum so what chance in Autumn 2018, but given that September hasn't exactly been hot and that counts towards Autumn, and they are saying much drier than average, you would say that its a very dangerous prediction to assume that it will mean warm, I mean high pressure slap bang over us for the whole of November would mean a well below average month.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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I wish James Madden would be right though, imagine our winters since 2010 if he had been right, he forecasted record breaking cold in every one and claims he is an accurate forecaster in his self appraisal, so therefore we would have needed to break the CET record in the maunder minimum and kept on breaking the record we had just set the next year, so we would have had some last 10 years for cold and snow I tell you.

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