Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[bluearmy]

From Bloomberg

Siberian Snow Theory Points to an Early and Cold US Winter

By Brian K Sullivan - 23 Nov 2016, 10:01:01

 

For those cursing the unseasonable November chill, there’s an ominous sign up north. It suggests this winter will be long and cold, according to one eminent scientist.

He’s the father of the “Siberian Snow Theory.” In a nutshell, he argues that the more snow covering the ground in northern Eurasia, the colder we can expect it down below. Sadly, Siberia is looking pretty white already.

Judah Cohen, a renowned MIT climatologist, has been working on this theory for 17 years, despite skepticism from some U.S. government weather experts. Cohen, who figures his theory has been right 75 percent of the time, spies all the makings of an early, cold winter.

“This year, we have had this very textbook situation,” Cohen said.

The first blast of Siberian-spurred cold could come in December this year, instead of the usual January, according to Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research,a unit of Verisk Analytics, which works with governments and financial-services and insurance companies.

While it isn’t certain where the frigid air will land -- North America, Asia or Europe -- Cohen is predicting cold will envelop more of the U.S. than government forecasters expect. Cold, rain and snow could extend from the upper Great Plains to Florida.

Holiday travelers will hope he is wrong, as will retailers who rely on last-minute shoppers who could be deterred by snow and slush. But those who make money from natural gas, whose price dropped because of warm weather, may be in for a treat.

“If he is right that would be terrific,” said Teri Viswanath, managing director for natural gas at Pira Energy Group in New York. “I hope he’s right."

Conflicting Forecasts

Viswanath isn’t betting on it because of conflicting weather models. For example, the Tuesday forecast for Dec. 2 to Dec. 6 called for much of Canada and the eastern U.S. to be warmer than normal, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

Since he was a graduate student, Cohen, who grew up in Brooklyn, has explored the connection between snow in Siberia and weather throughout the temperate regions of the northern hemisphere.  

Cohen charts a kind of chain reaction. Climate change melts ice in the Arctic Ocean, resulting in more moisture in the atmosphere. That leads to more snow covering Siberia, which reflects sunlight -- and warmth -- from the terrain.

This chill sends energy toward the Polar vortex, the vast weather system that traps cold air in the Arctic. As a result, the vortex breaks down, sending cold air south, as if a refrigerator door had opened.

1998 Fail

Stephen Baxter, a meteorologist and seasonal forecaster at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, isn’t convinced. In a conference call last week to discuss federal forecasts, he called the correlation between Siberian weather and the U.S. "weak."

On the commercial forecasting side, Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC, brings up the inconvenient fact of 1998. Blame El Nino, the periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that often wreaks havoc with global weather.

That year, after that disruption, snow piled up in Siberia -- but the U.S. winter was warm. Last year -- the warmest winter on record in the contiguous 48 states, Cohen’s theory missed again because of El Nino.

“So I think his Siberian-based prediction could work out, but a 1998 fail is still a huge risk,” Rogers said.

[mountain shadow]

Tokyo has just had its first November snow since...............

1962!!!!!!

[FetchCB]

49 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Tokyo has just had its first November snow since...............

1962!!!!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38088036

I've seen several references to 1962 in the model and Strat thread so far this Autumn.............

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 28 November—Sunday 4 December
December to begin on a high

This week will get off to a quiet start, quite different from the very wet and windy weather we saw last Monday. High pressure will dominate our weather throughout this week keeping a lot of dry and settled conditions. The early part of the week will be characterised by cold, sunny weather in many places with a widespread severe frost on Monday night, the coldest night of this autumn across England and Wales. Further north, the frost will be more patchy with cloudier skies edging in across Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Some rain here during Tuesday and Wednesday. This less cold weather with grey skies will edge across England and Wales during Wednesday and Thursday. The rest of the week and over the weekend will continue mostly dry and rather cloudy with just a little light rain in the west. The best of any brighter skies by day and patchy frosts at nights will be over more sheltered eastern parts of Scotland and England.

Monday 5 December—Sunday 11 December
Keep an umbrella handy

As we move further into December, it does look as though we will all experience a more unsettled spell of weather. High pressure will give way to an area of low pressure which will bring rain and stronger winds across the country from the west. There is a possibility of the rain being preceded by snow over hills in the north. Rain in western parts will be heavy at times and will be accompanied by stronger winds but the rain will be lighter and patchy in eastern areas. The more unsettled interlude is expected to be short lived with drier, brighter weather expected to follow later in the week and into the weekend. This will mean a return to drier weather with some sunshine but also sharp overnight frosts and freezing fog patches.

Monday 12 December—Sunday 25 December
Will Christmas be white?

The weather into the second half of December and the lead up to Christmas is looking very different to what we saw last year. December 2015 saw severe flooding in many parts of the country with generally mild conditions. This was as a result of a series of active weather systems coming in from the Atlantic and crossing the British Isles. This blocking weather pattern and weaker jet stream discussed earlier looks set to still be in place during the second half of December with only slow changes in our weather. There are signs that high pressure will build close to the British Isles with some settled conditions. This will again bring sharp overnight frosts and freezing fog patches which will be slow to clear by day. There will be some unsettled interludes but they will be fairly limited and not as severe as we saw last December. However with below average temperatures, there is a chance of snow during any unsettled spells, more especially over high ground in the north. So in summary, the consensus from the various weather models is for the unusual autumn weather to carry on into early winter with colder and drier weather expected compared with normal December conditions.

Next week

Will the year end on a chilly note?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Summer Sun]

Good job the models don't follow when the Russian Bewick’s swans arrive

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3980708/Have-swans-predicted-mild-winter-Late-arrival-Bewick-species-Russia-indicate-shorter-warmer-season.html

[jvenge]

53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good job the models don't follow when the Russian Bewick’s swans arrive

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3980708/Have-swans-predicted-mild-winter-Late-arrival-Bewick-species-Russia-indicate-shorter-warmer-season.html

I had a read of that this morning. I'm not even sure the author can follow what he/she wrote. Just mindless drivel.

[Nick B]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

I had a read of that this morning. I'm not even sure the author can follow what he/she wrote. Just mindless drivel.

Their accuracy can be summed up in the last sentence:

'December 1 marks the beginning of meteorological winter, which lasts until February 1.'

I don't think so...

[Summer Sun]

Snow in paradise? Up to a foot of snow forecast in Hawaii

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hawaii-snow-mauna-kea-winter-weather-warning/

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Unusually heavy snow down to low lying areas in Hawaii. A sign of things to come later down the line for us?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38199730

Edited December 4, 2016 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 5 December—Sunday 11 December
Becoming unusually mild.

The high pressure which has delivered cold conditions for the very beginning of winter, quickly gives way to low pressure this week. This change is going to allow warmer air to move in from the Atlantic. Though Monday morning starts cold and frosty for many, mild air moves in slowly from the far south west on Monday morning, spreading to all parts by late on Tuesday. As temperatures creep up, mist and fog is expected to develop widely, with murky conditions expected for many particularly on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday, wet and windy weather arrives in Northern Ireland and Scotland and gradually moves south, with clearer, cooler conditions following in behind on Thursday. Another spell of wet and windy weather arrives in the west on Friday and crosses all parts before clearing to the east of the UK on Saturday leaving Sunday relatively dry and bright.

Monday 12 December—Sunday 18 December
Keep an umbrella handy

As we move into mid-December, unsettled conditions are expected to continue. The wettest and windiest weather will tend to be in the north and west, with southern and eastern areas seeing drier and brighter weather. This somewhat changeable weather is then likely to be replaced by more settled conditions as pressure builds by the end of the week. Temperatures return to something closer to normal, which is chilly as we approach the shortest day of the year.

Monday 19 December—Sunday 1 January
Will Christmas be white?

Whilst there is some uncertainty surrounding this period, I'm sure you're keen to know if we're expecting a white Christmas! Currently, it is most likely that the pressure will continue to build toward the end of December, leading to a continuation of settled conditions. If the pressure does build then we can expect it to be drier than average for most areas with light winds. Temperatures are also then likely to be below average with sharp frosts and some fog around in the morning where skies clear overnight. There will also be plenty of crisp winter sunshine by day. There is the potential for some unsettled weather, but this looks less likely. So, although the Christmas period looks likely to be cold, it's unlikely to be white, but things could still change, so keep an eye on the forecast.

Next week

Will it be a frosty start to 2017?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[snowtimenow]

Wasn't sure where to ask this but a coronal hole is about to strike on the 8 th Dec, could it have an effect on our weather ?

[Summer Sun]

Peter Gibbs is leaving the BBC

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Terminal Moraine]

10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Peter Gibbs is leaving the BBC

 

Definitely one of the best forecasters/presenters on the t.v. He will be greatly missed.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Dull and damp Countryfile forecast presented by a dull man, I'm afraid. 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 12 December—Monday 19 December
Remaining mild

We'll see something a little fresher and cooler for Monday morning across the north and east, mild air will be once again making steady progress across the south west and it could well be a foggy start for many across south Wales and many parts of England.

This mild air will have spread across the UK by the end of Monday meaning that once again temperatures will be above average for this time of year, with relatively mild mornings too. In general it will be a cloudy week, with hill-fog around from time to time. Any rain will mainly be light and perhaps drizzly in nature though we could see some heavier and more persistent rain at times in the west between Wednesday and Friday, with stronger winds too. After Friday, high pressure will begin to move in from the south, bringing drier and sometimes brighter conditions.

Tuesday 20 December—Monday 26 December
Could we see a white Christmas?

As we move towards Christmas, it looks as though that high pressure will never be far away. Whenever high pressure takes charge the weather will be drier in general, with some sunny spells. Overnight, where the cloud breaks there could be some frosts. By day it's likely to be a little cooler than the very mild temperatures we've seen recently but not particularly cold. However, weather fronts are likely to try to push into the UK from time-to-time, bringing a risk of rain and strong winds to the west.

Tuesday 27 December—Monday 9 January
A battle between pressure systems.

As we approach the new year, it's unclear whether we will see high pressure continue to dominate or if low pressure will start to take charge. Whilst this battle between the two is underway it looks like north-western parts of the UK are most likely to see more unsettled weather with rain and stronger winds.

The unsettled conditions trying to edge in from the west will keep temperatures milder than average but further east, where high pressure clings on, we should see cooler, clearer and drier weather.

The further we go into January, the more likely it becomes that the high pressure will finally succumb to the advancing low pressure systems bringing more unsettled weather for everyone eventually.

Next week

Will it be a wet and windy or cold and crisp start to 2017?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Summer Sun]

Plane slides off runway as a snowstorm sweeps across US Midwest

http://news.sky.com/story/weather-warnings-as-snow-storm-sweeps-across-us-midwest-10693156

[Summer Sun]

Ian McCaskill has died aged 78

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/dec/12/ian-mccaskill-obituary

[Summer Sun]

The Express never fail to amaze me

SNOW BOMB: Wall of SNOW to SMASH UK as deadly blizzards hit in COLDEST freeze for 53 YEARS

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/742699/Snow-UK-weather-forecast-coldest-winter

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The Express never fail to amaze me

SNOW BOMB: Wall of SNOW to SMASH UK as deadly blizzards hit in COLDEST freeze for 53 YEARS

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/742699/Snow-UK-weather-forecast-coldest-winter

I was wondering if even the Daily Express had finally had enough of Nathan Rao....and he managed to  get a "science" journalto take him on!!!

http://principia-scientific.org/uk-hit-coldest-winter-freeze-53-years/

[Summer Sun]

13 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I was wondering if even the Daily Express had finally had enough of Nathan Rao....and he managed to  get a "science" journalto take him on!!!

http://principia-scientific.org/uk-hit-coldest-winter-freeze-53-years/

 

The best bit;

"Exacta Weather’s James Madden warned the mercury could dip to -20C by the end of the year triggering “snow event after snow event”.

He said: “December is now likely to follow a cold and snowy weather pattern across many parts of the country.

“Colder conditions will be accompanied by potentially countrywide snow events particularly around the periods of the 12th to the 17th and the 21st to the 29th of December."

Well it's the 13th today it's very mild and I see no snow anywhere in the UK forecast this week

 

 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The best bit;

"Exacta Weather’s James Madden warned the mercury could dip to -20C by the end of the year triggering “snow event after snow event”.

He said: “December is now likely to follow a cold and snowy weather pattern across many parts of the country.

“Colder conditions will be accompanied by potentially countrywide snow events particularly around the periods of the 12th to the 17th and the 21st to the 29th of December."

Well it's the 13th today it's very mild and I see no snow anywhere in the UK forecast this week

 

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Mac_SE]

The Express' 'SNOW BOMB: Wall of SNOW to SMASH UK as deadly blizzards hit in COLDEST freeze for 53 YEARS' headline, apart from just how utterly ludicrous it all is, just makes me laugh heartily each time I read it.

Rao's finest hour, surely.

Certainly brightened up my day.

 

[Summer Sun]

7 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

The Express' 'SNOW BOMB: Wall of SNOW to SMASH UK as deadly blizzards hit in COLDEST freeze for 53 YEARS' headline, apart from just how utterly ludicrous it all is, just makes me laugh heartily each time I read it.

Rao's finest hour, surely.

Certainly brightened up my day.

 

 

I still can't forget his 100 days of snow a few years back

[jvenge]

The Police should charge them both with inciting public disorder :-)