Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Summer Sun]

The met office response to the nonsense above

 

the Met Office suggest cold spell later next week should be fairly short-lived ahead of return to W/SW flow & settled weather

 

Curtsey of Ian on twitter

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office’s outlook for UK winter

 

There are some headlines in the media today which suggest the Met Office is warning of exceptionally cold weather for three months. However, the Met Office hasn’t issued a warning along these lines and we have not highlighted months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather ahead. If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings. The news stories are based on information taken from our three month outlook for contingency planners, so let’s take a closer look at that.

 

What does our three month outlook say?

 

This outlook is not like our other forecasts because, as we have discussed previously, it’s not currently scientifically possible to provide a detailed forecast over these long timescales. Instead, the outlook assesses the level of risk connected to five different scenarios for both temperature and rain/snowfall. It’s a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race. The current outlook for December-January-February says the chance of the coldest scenario happening is between 20 and 25% and the chances that the period will fall into the warmest scenario is between 10 and 15%.

 

So while uncertainty is quite large, below average temperatures are more likely than above average (for note, average maximum temperatures for the UK in winter are about 6.6C and average minimum temps are about 0.9C). However, as with any horse race, it’s always possible that the favourite won’t win – so these probability scenarios have to be used in the right context. This is why they’re useful for contingency planners who plan ahead based on risk, but not that useful for the general public.

 

So what will winter be like?

 

Obviously there’s always a lot of interest to know what winter will be like – how cold will it be, how much snow will we get and where and when will it fall? The Met Office is working with research partners around the world to improve longer range forecasting, but it’s not currently possible to forecast snow or exact temperatures three months ahead. However, our 30-day outlook (under the text forecast tab) provides a look ahead to the general type of weather we’re likely to see in the UK. Currently it says that after today, we’ll see settled weather and fairly normal temperatures into the first of December before the chance of some colder, more changeable weather towards the end of next week. This may last a few days before giving way to milder and unsettled weather.

 

For the mid to latter part December, there are indications that temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average for the time of year, but otherwise fairly normal conditions for early winter are most likely. With regards to forecasting snow, because there are so many factors involved, generally that can only be discussed in any detail in our five day forecasts. If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/the-met-offices-outlook-for-uk-winter/

Edited November 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Early indications suggest Scotland is on course for its sunniest November in 84 years

 

For the UK in general November was generally colder, drier and sunnier than normal

[mikeocarroll]

The calm reason of the Met Office... what a delightful way of saying to the daily express "nope - still swearing off with your nonsense"

The calm reason of the Met Office... what a delightful way of saying to the daily express "nope - still swearing off with your nonsense"

 

Haha not fair that the swear filter picks up when you have ***s in it.

Edited November 29, 2013 by mikeocarroll

[Coast]

THREE months of exceptionally cold weather are on the way, 

 

 

Last week they were headlining six months of exceptionally cold and snowy Winter all the way to May. At this rate, come Christmas it will be Summer weather and Turkey on the BBQ.......

[Smiler1709]

The met office would never put such early warnings out because of two reasons 1 it could go wrong and they would look like idiots as they have so many times in the past, 2 it would create massive panic buying something the government try's to keep a lid on. If they could see that weather coming they still wouldn't tell us about it till 3 or 4 days before.

[Methuselah]

The met office would never put such early warnings out because of two reasons 1 it could go wrong and they would look like idiots as they have so many times in the past, 2 it would create massive panic buying something the government try's to keep a lid on. If they could see that weather coming they still wouldn't tell us about it till 3 or 4 days before.

The other reason is that neither they nor anyone-else can do much more than guess...

 

Edit: by 'guess', I mean that the signal gets lost in the noise...

Edited November 29, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Summer Sun]

And now the Daily Star and Daily Mail are copying the Express

 

Three months of winter hell will see coldest Christmas on record

 

BLIZZARDS will batter frozen Britain for the next three months, weather experts warned last night. Some forecasters are even predicting the coldest Christmas on record as temperatures plummet. The threat of extreme temperatures has already sparked fears of transport chaos, school closures and a flu epidemic. And yesterday councils were put on high alert after the Met Office issued its latest three month forecast for emergency planners. The report will send a chill down the spine of many Brits. It predicts a higher probability of below-average temperatures over the period. A Met Office spokesman said the prediction would be used by local authorities and other services to make plans, such as gritting icy roads. He said snow was forecast from today over higher ground, with temperatures plunging towards the end of next week.

 

The icy blast is set to arrive weeks before the official start of winter on December 21. The cause is a band of polar air heading from the north. It comes after figures revealed last winter's deep freeze caused the deaths of 31,000 old people.

The latest news will renew fears that bitter conditions could cost more lives, with A&E departments already struggling. People have been advised to check in on elderly neighbours during the big freeze. And panic buyers are expected to clear supermarket shelves of grit, de-icer and ice-scrapers, and emergency food supplies.

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/353224/Three-months-of-winter-hell-will-see-coldest-Christmas-on-record

 

Freezing weather to last until March: Britain to be stuck under cold front 'for the next three months'

 

Britain will have to wrap up warm from next week as Arctic winds are expected to bring a cold front for the next month at least. Forecasters have warned temperatures in December and set to be lower than average for this time of year as the country is hit by northerly winds. While the temperatures are expected to remain mild throughout the weekend, a cold blast is due to start as we move through next week.

The warning comes as other long-term forecasters have suggested the temperatures could remain below the winter average until March, according to the Daily Express. The average temperature for December is 3.9C, but Met Office forecaster Charles Powell said next month was looking as if it is going to be 'colder than usual'. He did say however that it should remain slightly drier and more sunny than average.

 

He said: 'It looks as if we could be in for a colder spell as we go towards the end of next week, so Thursday to Friday and into the weekend is looking generally cloudy but a bit colder than we have seen recently. 'From the middle of the month for the rest of December it looks as if temperatures are going to remain near or slightly below average for this time of year, but otherwise pretty normal. 'So in terms of sunshine and rainfall there's nothing particularly signalling that there's going to be anything out of the ordinary.'  Mr Powell said some snow could even be seen in parts of Scotland today, a risk which could continue for the next few weeks. He said: 'All the way through this 30 day period we have got this recurring theme of scattered showers in the north while the south of Britain will remain cold but dry. 'It might be colder than average across parts of the UK but in terms of snowfall, I don't think it's going to be a blanket.'

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2515481/Freezing-weather-March-Britain-stuck-cold-months.html

[Froze were the Days]

Just shows you the stupidity of the journalist of these tabloids/papers - the Met Office issue a vague % winter outlook in terms of cold/warmth and it is totally misinterpreted by the papers. Doesn't help by Madden either whittling on with his usual winter armageddon forecasts. 

[Gael_Force]

Quite frankly, threads such as this don't help either. Every time SS posts a link to the trash, people will look at it and thereby generate traffic to the websites. The only way for it to disappear is for there to be no purchasers or visitors - doubt that's likely to happen but we can each do our little bit by not increasing the revenue of the offenders.

[Coast]

And now the Daily Star and Daily Mail are copying the Express

 

Three months of winter hell will see coldest Christmas on record

 

And yesterday councils were put on high alert after the Met Office issued its latest three month forecast for emergency planners. The report will send a chill down the spine of many Brits. It predicts a higher probability of below-average temperatures over the period.

 

Well unless the MetO forecast for planners is significantly different from that which has been released to the public (and as detailed above), I read:

 

Obviously there’s always a lot of interest to know what winter will be like – how cold will it be, how much snow will we get and where and when will it fall? The Met Office is working with research partners around the world to improve longer range forecasting, but it’s not currently possible to forecast snow or exact temperatures three months ahead. However, our 30-day outlook (under the text forecast tab) provides a look ahead to the general type of weather we’re likely to see in the UK. Currently it says that after today, we’ll see settled weather and fairly normal temperatures into the first of December before the chance of some colder, more changeable weather towards the end of next week. This may last a few days before giving way to milder and unsettled weather.

 

For the mid to latter part December, there are indications that temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average for the time of year, but otherwise fairly normal conditions for early winter are most likely. With regards to forecasting snow, because there are so many factors involved, generally that can only be discussed in any detail in our five day forecasts. If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings.

 

 

So they are completely miss quoting the MetO from what I am seeing, or am I missing something that has been let slip to Council planners and not everyone else?

 

This is the sentence in the Star that really is tedious though:

 

The threat of extreme temperatures has already sparked fears of transport chaos, school closures and a flu epidemic.

 

 

No!!! the headlines you keep churning out will do that, it's the papers that are doing the threatening surely? When you read the statement from Met Office forecaster Charles Powell, he is pretty much talking about a standard British Winter!!!

 

/rant

Edited November 29, 2013 by Coast

[Man With Beard]

 

Oh dear the express are back

 

The BIG freeze: Get ready as sharp icy blast returns to last three months

 

THREE months of exceptionally cold weather are on the way, the Met Office warned last night. Temperatures are set to plummet and are likely to remain below the winter ­average right through until March. The big freeze will begin next week with snow in the North and an icy blast bringing an end to the brief mild spell in the South. That will be just the start of what one expert described last night as “a long, hard winterâ€. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “A significant change to much colder ­conditions is likely to develop next week. This ­wintry blast has all the ingredients to become a potentially widespread snow event. “This will give an appropriate feel to the weather at the start of what is set to be a long, hard winter with abundant snowfall. “January in particular could see temperatures hovering at several degrees below the seasonal average for a prolonged period of time.â€

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/445766/The-BIG-freeze-Get-ready-as-sharp-icy-blast-returns-to-last-three-months

 

 

I'm surprised the Met Office don't sue. It's a complete misrepresentation of what they actually said and will damage their credibility.

[Coast]

[Formula_1_Fan]

Just a guess but I think met office quote is because Madden will have told them that they are saying that. There was a comment by him on his Facebook a few days ago how the met are now predicting a cold winter 8 months after him. He has probably said this to the papers who have then just taken it as exactly what the met have said.

He has probably got this from the long range models that were hinting at slightly below average winter. I'm probably giving him too credit as I can't imagine him looking at anything based on actual science.

[Summer Sun]

Just a guess but I think met office quote is because Madden will have told them that they are saying that. There was a comment by him on his Facebook a few days ago how the met are now predicting a cold winter 8 months after him. He has probably said this to the papers who have then just taken it as exactly what the met have said.

He has probably got this from the long range models that were hinting at slightly below average winter. I'm probably giving him too credit as I can't imagine him looking at anything based on actual science.

 

Maybe this is what is used?

 

[WillinGlossop]

Bbc breakfast weather presenter showed what looked like an interpretation from the ecm saying cold artic northerly by the end of next week...

[Summer Sun]

Weather wars: Met Office denies predicting three months of exceptionally cold weather amid reports of Britain's 'coldest winter ever'

 

The Met Office has once again responded to reports that this winter could be the coldest ever after a rash of headlines warning of three months of record-breaking icy cold weather.  A number of newspapers this morning published articles warning of a 'killer three month freeze' that is expected to hit Britain in days. The reports also warned that the winter could be one of the 'worst in history'.  The reports cited a Met Office three-month contingency plan that states: “Indications are that December will most likely be colder than average.

 

“For December-January-February as a whole uncertainty is quite large but below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average."But also quotes forecasters other than the Met Office suggesting that this winter could see record breaking cold weather. In a blog posted today the Met Office sought to distance themselves from the report and explain once again why three month forecasts are not accurate.

The furthest afield they can forecast is 30 days - but stressed that if there is any sign of significantly cold weather, they will update the information given to the public accordingly.

 

The Met Office blog post said of its most recent outlook: "Currently it says that after today, we'll see settled weather and fairly normal temperatures into December 1 before the chance of some colder, more changeable weather towards the end of the week. This may last a few days before giving way to milder and unsettled weather. "For the mid to latter part of December, there are indications that temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average for the time of year, but otherwise fairly normal conditions for early winter are most likely." In a previous blog the Met Office explained the complexities related to providing detailed forecasts over the long-term. The blog explains that our weather is a "classic example of what is known as a chaotic system" being influenced as it is by a range of tiny factors that could have a huge impact.

 

They quoted one scientist as saying "one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever". Hence atmospheric 'chaos' means that long range forecasting is particularly difficult. The blog goes on to state: "Speculative forecasts appearing in the media and claiming to accurately and definitively forecast UK weather months ahead are therefore doomed to failure when analysed over a long period of time." Despite various experimental methods aimed at long-term forecasting it remains an inexact art. As for this winter the Met Office is saying that as things stand, December is set to be "fairly normal".

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-wars-met-office-denies-predicting-three-months-of-exceptionally-cold-weather-amid-reports-of-britains-coldest-winter-ever-8973755.html

 

Severe winter coming? Not necessarily, says Met Office

 

Britain’s official weather forecasters today poured cold water on media reports that the country was heading for one of the severest winters in years. The Met Office said that, although there was a chance of below-average temperatures over the next three months, it could also be warmer than normal.

 

http://www.grough.co.uk/magazine/2013/11/29/severe-winter-coming-not-necessarily-says-met-office

 

UK Weather: 'It Will Not Be Exceptionally Cold This Winter' Met Office Says

 

The Met Office has given a clear-as-mud weather warning, predicting that the next three months may or may not be exceptionally cold. In a blog post on Friday, the forecasters said Britain was more likely to see below-average temperatures than above-average temperatures - but noted that the "uncertainty is quite large". As things stand, December is set to be "fairly normal", however. The furthest afield they can forecast is 30 days - but stressed that if there is any sign of significantly cold weather, they will update the information given to the public accordingly.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/11/29/uk-weather-forecasts-uncertain_n_4359617.html

[Smiler1709]

I think the government should put a ban on the express for leaking this rubbish, not only does it affect the economy with people maybe panic buying, but if people plan ahead and they think there's a bad winter coming then they may cancel plans ie holidays, trips etc which then has a knock on affect on our economy. Also I think this point is massive they put fear into people... Worry about rising house bills, therefore can't afford heating, also the elderly who sadly have a higher chance of dying in such extreme cold. The express and it's followers need a long hard look at themselves and stop this scare mongering. If we have severe weather coming then report it and let the uk know then we can prepare, but these latest story's would even have some parts of Canada on alert.

[Jax]

I think the government should put a ban on the express for leaking this rubbish, not only does it affect the economy with people maybe panic buying, but if people plan ahead and they think there's a bad winter coming then they may cancel plans ie holidays, trips etc which then has a knock on affect on our economy. Also I think this point is massive they put fear into people... Worry about rising house bills, therefore can't afford heating, also the elderly who sadly have a higher chance of dying in such extreme cold. The express and it's followers need a long hard look at themselves and stop this scare mongering. If we have severe weather coming then report it and let the uk know then we can prepare, but these latest story's would even have some parts of Canada on alert.

I certainly think the media should be handed fines to make them think twice in the future to go with misleading headlines and articles that are plain wrong and serve only to try and drag in revenue, fine them and take it all back and make them think twice next time and maybe try and do some honest and truth Journalism instead.

[Frosty.]

Hot off the press..BBC NEWS 24 weather said a BIG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS DEFINATELY GOING TO HAPPEN    

[Summer Sun]

Have Exacta now disabled comments on their FB page, or is it just me?

 

It appears so even those who "like" the page can't comment

[UV-RAY]

It appears so even those who "like" the page can't comment

No doubt in anticipation for the numerous comments and thanks for the early warnings for the coldest winter ever, or............ Lol.

[Summer Sun]

No doubt in anticipation for the numerous comments and thanks for the early warnings for the coldest winter ever, or............ Lol.

 

Well you see anyone who replies and doesn't agree with him has the comment deleted so he's probably had enough of deleting them

[Summer Sun]

Hot off the press..BBC NEWS 24 weather said a BIG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS DEFINATELY GOING TO HAPPEN    

 

Still looks short lived Ian Fergusson has just tweeted this

 

Hopefully in-out of cold snap late next week pretty speedily, as @metoffice always suspected. No 3-month gig as progged by Express 'experts'

[UV-RAY]

Still looks short lived Ian Fergusson has just tweeted this

 

Hopefully in-out of cold snap late next week pretty speedily, as @metoffice always suspected. No 3-month gig as progged by Express 'experts'

Those tweets from Ian change as much as a daily GFS run.