Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Decemberof2010]

4 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I think the point to remember here is that the contingency planners forecast was probably written based on stuff from at least a few days ago. Models can and do change quite suddenly and that new state of affairs is what Fergie is telling us about. No doubt the contingency planners will be advised of such changes . So actually its because they do have clue that they have spotted the chance of an SSW having increased greatly.

Fair point I'll get my coat

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 5 February—Sunday 11 February

Mainly cold, often dry, but with snow at times!

Monday will begin on a frosty note, but through daylight hours, most regions will enjoy plenty of dry weather, light winds and brighter spells. The exceptions will be southeast of England, where a raw northeasterly breeze will blow in wintry showers that will leave some accumulating snow on the hills of Kent, and a few light flurries of snow that may feed in from the east across central areas.

On Monday night, an Atlantic weather front will push into Northern Ireland and make progress southeastwards towards Scotland, northern England, Wales and the Midlands by Tuesday morning. The front will impinge on the cold air further east, meaning that many northern areas can expect snowfall. Further southeast on Tuesday, most parts will enjoy a fine, cold day, and only later will the weather front introduce the some patchy and mainly light evening snowfall.

Through the week, the Azores High (an anticyclone anchored over the Azores) is expected to extend towards the UK, influencing our weather, Indeed, on Wednesday pressure looks likely to build in again across most parts, resulting in another cold yet mainly dry day with just the odd flurry of sleet of snow for some coastal areas of eastern England and also around Irish Sea coasts.

Wednesday night into Thursday is expected to yield another Atlantic weather front that will round the top of the Azores high, bringing some snow to the northwest, but as the weather front sinks southwards towards the rest of the UK through Thursday, the influence of the high pressure will likely fragment any precipitation across southern areas. Later on Thursday, brighter, colder and showery weather is expected to once again feed in from the northwest.

Throughout the rest of the period, it looks likely that conditions will remain cold, with the influence of the Azores high continuing to be temporarily interrupted by incursions of weak Atlantic weather fronts moving across the UK from the northwest, bringing the risk of further wintry weather.

Monday 12 February—Sunday 18 February

If you love cold weather, happy days ahead!

Sometimes the middle of February can bring an unexpected theme of romance, and if you like your weather cold, you might fall in love with the forecast for this period!

The usual forecasting computer models are showing a reasonable levels of agreement that this period will begin on a similar theme to how the first half of February ended - namely that the Azores high will greatly influence the UK's weather. The position on the high pressure system will tend to mean that winds are initially dominant from the north or northwest much of the time. This will likely mean that weather conditions will often be cold, with a good deal of dry weather for most areas too, with a propensity for frosty nights. At times though, we are likely to see further Atlantic weather systems temporarily interrupt the influence of the Azores high, bringing briefly milder and wetter interludes. Such milder interludes will always bring the risk of snowfall as the milder air associated with fronts runs into the cold air that will so often be found over the UK.

Later in the period, models are also increasingly showing signs that the high pressure system centred over the Azores may interact with high pressure positioned over Scandinavia. Such an eventuality would result in further cold and often dry weather, with frosty nights. The intensity of the cold will likely become greater with time though as very cold, continental air filters in over the UK driven by biting easterly winds. Snow showers may also become prevalent across mainly eastern regions of the UK at times.

Monday 19 February—Sunday 4 March

Still cold, but possibly turning drier for all?

As we move through the last few days of winter and into early spring, weather forecasting models are indicating that pressure will likely remain high across the UK, and at this time of year, such a configuration will result in cold, predominantly dry days and frosty nights, with the risk of occasional sleet and snow showers near windward coats. The exact position of the high will be crucial in determining the amount of cloud cover we can expect, and at this stage is rather uncertain.

The predictions offered by the standard weather forecasting models are also backed up by other specialised forecasting models, increasing confidence in the aforementioned outcome.

One such model is involved in predicting the behaviour of the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere directly above troposphere, the latter being where we live - at the surface of the Earth! On occasion, certain polar regions of the stratosphere can become anomalously warm.During such an occurrence, the jet stream in the troposphere that drives low pressure weather systems our way can be caused to slow and meander huge distances from the poles the the tropics and back. Such an eventuality can lead to what meteorologists sometimes refer to as a 'blocked pattern', in effect bringing slow moving areas of high pressure in the vicinity of the UK. At time of writing, the model in question was predicting a localised warming of the stratosphere which will likely result in high pressure dominating the UK weather in the closing weeks of winter.

All the evidence is pointing towards a cold end to February and start of March!

Next week

In next week's edition we will take a look further into March. We already suspect that March won't exactly roar 'in like a lion' - rather there'll most likely be a weak murmur of cold and icy weather. We might be closer to asking whether March will move out like a lamb though! Find out next week...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[bluearmy]

Meteogroup now responsible for beeb online content - where are they getting the data for the 14 day automatic output ?? ( and more importantly who sanctioned such nonsense?)

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Meteogroup now responsible for beeb online content - where are they getting the data for the 14 day automatic output ?? ( and more importantly who sanctioned such nonsense?)

They use a mix of ECM, UKMO, GFS, hirlam & WRF for data

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

They use a mix of ECM, UKMO, GFS, hirlam & WRF for data

Did they offer a 13 day service under met Office control ?

[Summer Sun]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Did they offer a 13 day service under met Office control ?

10 I think they extended it to a few year back but that only had morning and evening data not this silly hourly stuff they have now recipe for disaster IMO

Edited February 5, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Derecho]

The new graphics were really bad in my opinion.

The forecast itself though I found much harder to read, which parts were cloud and which were snow??

Also it seemed as though the UK was smaller and showers were just vague blobs in contrast to previous forecasts.

I prefer the old metoffice graphics to be honest, I really liked them.

[Snowmadsam]

I wasn’t a fan of the new graphics! Weatherscape did the job fine, to me Scotland looked too small and the motion looked too sickly.

Theres all differences between a UK view and a regional view which means features on a micro scale won’t be seen nationally.

[crazysnowcatz4]

Just saw the new graphics for the first time. The map is too small, the font size has been reduced but the names now take up more space i.e. Birmingham occupies all of Wales, mostly costal towns are shown, no where in the middle. Same is true of the local forecast.

Map is washed out and unclear , I suppose it might look better on a huge TV but who knows.  As for the website it is laughable, the forecast is completely inconsistent with the metoffice weather warnings which are still underneath .Now there is a big difference between the metoffice and bbc forecast. For example I have snow forecast by the Metoffice from 3-6 am but none at all from BBC/Meteo but all most all day according to Netweather. Will be interesting to see who is right..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Haven’t the Daily Express posted a headline - “coldest February in 100 years” yet ? ?

[Summer Sun]

UK set for weeks of HEAVY SNOW as rare Arctic phenomenon ‘delays Spring’

A RARE surge in temperatures over the North Pole is set to trigger WEEKS of brutally cold winds and heavy snow across the UK.

Meteorologists today confirmed the onset of a ‘major’ Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event above the Polar ice cap.

The phenomenon, which last happened five years ago, led to the coldest March in the UK since 1962 with significant snowfalls lying on frozen ground for a month and brought below-average temperatures until summer.

https://www.express.co.u...ther-warning-winter-2018

[Ice Man 85]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK set for weeks of HEAVY SNOW as rare Arctic phenomenon ‘delays Spring’

A RARE surge in temperatures over the North Pole is set to trigger WEEKS of brutally cold winds and heavy snow across the UK.

Meteorologists today confirmed the onset of a ‘major’ Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event above the Polar ice cap.

The phenomenon, which last happened five years ago, led to the coldest March in the UK since 1962 with significant snowfalls lying on frozen ground for a month and brought below-average temperatures until summer.

https://www.express.co.u...ther-warning-winter-2018

Well there you go, folks; the last nail in the coffin. I can imagine Sydney digging his nuts up already.

Edited February 10, 2018 by Ice Man 85
typo

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Saturday 10 February—Sunday 11 February
Changeable but at times unsettled weather

Following a cold and frosty start in the east, it will turn wet and windy from the west today as a deep low pressure area circulates just to the north west. Associated heavy rain pushing east accompanied by a fresh and strong southwesterly wind, with high rainfall totals across northern and western regions, will give the risk of localised flooding. There will also be snow over northern hills early in the day before milder air moves through. Winds are then expected to strengthen across England and Wales through the evening and night, with a risk of 50mph gusts for many regions and perhaps >60mph across exposed coasts and hills in the west. As the rain clears east, it will turn colder from the west with wintry showers, these most numerous across western Scotland.

Sunday will be a cold and windy winter's day with sunny spells and wintry showers, along with a significant wind chill. There will be snow accumulations mainly to the hills of Wales, northern England, western Scotland and Northern Ireland with >5cm in places, perhaps locally >10cm. A small covering at low levels in the north west, but snow will struggle to settle through the daytime across more southern and eastern regions. Westerly winds gusting close to 45mph across western coasts, perhaps over 50mph for more exposed coasts of north west Wales and western Scotland. Little change overnight with further wintry showers in the north west, and it will be cold with a fairly widespread frost.

Monday 12 February—Sunday 18 February
Chilly and unsettled, with wintry showers at times

Next week will see an active jet stream meandering over the North Atlantic, in turn diverting low pressure areas close to the UK. Associated fronts are likely to bring periods of heavy rain and strong winds, interspersed with cold and showery interludes. In essence, it will be a week where there will be a high degree of day-to-day variability in the weather, with temperatures oscillating around normal. Snow will be an ongoing risk for northern areas, chiefly to high ground during the passage of Atlantic fronts, but also to lower levels in the colder/showery interludes. Occasional wintry precipitation not to
be ruled out further south, but the potential is lower. Winds are also projected to be strong on several days, perhaps reaching near gale force at times across the more exposed locations (north and west through the early part of the week then south and west after midweek). Significant cumulative snowfall for the West Highland region of Scotland.

Monday 19 February—Friday 9 March
Increasing risk of cold with snow possible

After mid-month, there continue to be signs from a range of forecasting guidance for a more significant pattern change across Europe. One of the sources that meteorologists are currently monitoring closely is the strength of upper level winds in the stratosphere, which are forecast to weaken considerably from mid-February and could lead to significant consequences for surface weather patterns. In past years when such an event has occurred, it has at times led to a greater incidence of high pressure over northern Europe and vastly reduced the typical westerly air flow that often characterises the European winter. The potential impacts from such a development would be perhaps a greater frequency of cold outbreaks, but such conditions may only begin to occur through the final week or so of February into early March. Wind and rainfall are also expected to be below average with a lack of energetic Atlantic lows crashing into the UK, but should the wind direction swing easterly at times then this would bring the threat of wintry showers from the North Sea.

Next Week

The main question will be how long will high pressure persist for over northern Europe and thereby maintaining the cold threat.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[danm]

 

[Summer Sun]

Ex-Hurricane Gita could hit New Zealand Tuesday and Wednesday next week bringing the potential for as much as 300mm of rain in places

 

[Summer Sun]

THE BIG FREEZE Polar vortex to bring ‘wild’ freezing weather to Britain AND the US after splitting in two over the Arctic

The weather phenomenon known as a 'Sudden Stratospheric Warming', makes air above the North Pole incredibly warm, pushing bitter conditions southwards

https://t.co/UFfQMzwm9l

UK weather to freeze Britons as snow and bitter Siberian winds make it feel like -11C

UK weather forecast maps suggest Britain could be facing the coldest start to spring for five years as bitter Siberian winds sweep the nation later this week.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/920521/uk-weather-forecast-news-snow-met-office-latest-map-time-today-ice-warning

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary
Colder weather expected to develop.

We're now halfway through February, which is the last and often the coldest month of the winter. This is due to the sea temperatures around the UK approaching their minimum values, allowing any cold wintry weather to really take hold. Indeed, there looks to be the threat of colder weather and perhaps sleet/snow through the final week of February into early March as winds predominate from the east at times. A return to somewhat milder, wetter and breezier weather is then possible around or just before mid-March.

Monday 19 February—Sunday 25 February
Mild and wet start. Turning colder towards weekend

A fairly mild start to next week as the remnants of Sunday's slow-moving front continues to give outbreaks of rain, these generally quite light although there could be some heavier bursts in the west overnight. Snow possible over the mountains of Scotland and perhaps northern Pennines.

Towards the middle part of next week (Tuesday to Wednesday), a transition should occur as high pressure extends from near south-western parts of the UK northwards, allowing precipitation to ease and introduce a generally drier spell of weather. Winds should also be either gentle to moderate, but there could be frosty conditions in places by night.

The second half of next week is proving to be a highly challenging period to forecast due to ongoing significant disagreement between various weather models. It is clear that the models are struggling to resolve the synoptic impacts across Europe from a recent major circulation change in the stratosphere, with the forecast perhaps only becoming clearer by the start of next week. Nonetheless, there is the expectation for an increased risk of cold weather developing through the second half of next week as high pressure builds over Scandinavia and induces an easterly air flow. Assuming this is the correct evolution, it would also bring the threat of wintry showers from the east, but also perhaps more widespread sleet/snow should an Atlantic front push in from the west and meet the cold air over the UK. The main alternate risk to our forecast, as suggested by some weather models, is for a milder and wetter set-up as low pressure areas over the Atlantic deliver a more 'westerly' pattern. Confidence is therefore low for this period.

Monday 26 February—Sunday 11 March
Cold with snow risk. Milder towards mid-March.

Late January into early March, there continue to be for a 'blocked' synoptic set-up due to a greater incidence of high pressure over northern. The primary impact from such a development is for a greater frequency of cold outbreaks, these perhaps evolving in a succession of cold air masses from
the east. Wind and rainfall are also expected to be below average with a lack of energetic Atlantic lows crashing into the UK, but should the wind direction swing easterly at times then this would bring the threat of snow showers from the North Sea.

The main question mark is how long high pressure will be influential over northern Europe, with suggestions from latest longer-range weather models that high pressure will slip west over the North Atlantic towards north-eastern parts of Canada through the second week or so of March. If this does occur, then this could signal the onset of a less cold and more unsettled period of weather for the UK with perhaps a focus for the wettest and windiest conditions across more southern regions.

Next Week

How influential could the return of Atlantic low pressure areas be by mid-March? Will we experience stormy conditions again in the next month or will there be another late burst of wintry weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Jo Farrow]

There are going to be some top notch quotes coming up "A rare North Pole phenomenon called a polar vortex"  The Mirror

[Deep Snow please]

It's all been confirmed apparently, no need to check the models anymore until next week 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/921055/UK-cold-weather-forecast-snow-BBC-Met-Office-weather-freeze

 

UK weather models confirm HISTORIC FREEZE as Scandinavian and Siberian systems hit

UK weather models have in the past few hours confirmed a lengthy and possibly historic big freeze is about to grip the nation. Bone-chilling winds from Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Russia will sweep country from the middle of this week.

 

[Banbury]

Sadly the Beeb and Susan Powell think next week will be dry ...................interesting  that is massively at odds with the Met Office ..............unless there has been a huge change in the orientation of the HP and its going to sit right over us

Edited February 20, 2018 by Banbury

[Purga]

11 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Sadly the Beeb and Susan Powell think next week will be dry ...................interesting  that is massively at odds with the Met Office ..............unless there has been a huge change in the orientation of the HP and its going to sit right over us

Really? I listened to Susan just a while ago on Radio 4 at 12.55 today and she didn't mention anything specific about it being dry. She did say that it would turn much colder after the weekend with very cold winds from Siberia and temperatures likely to be below freezing even during the day over many parts of the country.

I felt that it was a pretty bullish endorsement of what the charts are showing and what we are all hoping for - particularly at this range. I wouldn't expect METO or any proper weather presenter to make any specific comments about snow this far out for sure!

Edited February 20, 2018 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Purga said:

Really? I listened to Susan just a while ago on Radio 4 at 12.55 today and she didn't mention anything specific about it being dry. She did say that it would turn much colder byafter the weekend with very cold winds from Siberia and temperatures likely to be below freezing even during the day over many parts of the country.

I felt that it was a pretty bullish endorsement of what the charts are showing and what we are all hoping for - particularly at this range. I wouldn't expect METO or any proper weather presenter to make any specific comments about snow this far out for sure!

Yeah BBC 1 just before 13:30

 

[Banbury]

18 minutes ago, Purga said:

Really? I listened to Susan just a while ago on Radio 4 at 12.55 today and she didn't mention anything specific about it being dry. She did say that it would turn much colder after the weekend with very cold winds from Siberia and temperatures likely to be below freezing even during the day over many parts of the country.

I felt that it was a pretty bullish endorsement of what the charts are showing and what we are all hoping for - particularly at this range. I wouldn't expect METO or any proper weather presenter to make any specific comments about snow this far out for sure!

Yes really ...............not one mention of snow , she said it will be a shock and feel pretty cold. It seems she put more info into the R4 forecast than the TV one..........I take your point about not mentioning snow but equally she was very very confident of it staying dry

Edited February 20, 2018 by Banbury

[Purga]

20 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Yes really ...............not one mention of snow , she said it will be a shock and feel pretty cold. It seems she put more info into the R4 forecast than the TV one..........I take your point about not mentioning snow but equally she was very very confident of it staying dry

Don't doubt you just surprised at them making such a 'rash' prediction in the face of the model output & the METO text updates today!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

BBC need to take responsibility as the nation would continue as normal booking flights, etc for next week without the knowledge of possible disruption thinking dry and above freezing temperatures.

Edited February 20, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover