Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled end to March. Drier weather in April.

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Saturday 20 March – Sunday 28 March

Turning more unsettled as the week goes on.

As high pressure sits over the UK this weekend, the weather is likely to be settled, but rather cloudy with just occasional sunny spells here and there. Temperatures will tend to run a little above average expect for the Southeast, where some slightly cooler air is expected to linger. A very weak cold front should slowly make its way southwards later on Saturday, clearing south by Sunday morning. This will bring a few patches of drizzle or light rain to some, but mainly serve to keep things cloudy for much of the weekend.

Some clearer skies are likely Sunday night. This could lead to a crisp Monday morning for central and eastern areas. Next week, we expect a gradual pattern shift as high pressure slides away to the east. The storm track will then return with weather fronts spreading in from the west beginning around Tuesday. The unsettled weather will then be with us for the rest of the week. Temperatures will likely be a bit changeable, but there are some good signals for a warm middle of the week for the southern half of the country. This comes as southwest winds bring in some sub-tropical Atlantic air.

From Friday and into next weekend, it will likely turn a bit stormier as low pressure drifts nearer to the country. This will bring some stronger winds and scattered showers with a few pulses of heavier rain. Wintry showers are likely for parts of Scotland too as some colder air from Iceland arrives from the northwest.
Confidence is high for the broad weather pattern next week. Although as is typical with the nature of low pressure systems, the daily specifics may shift around slightly.

Monday 29 March – Sunday 4 April

Wet at times early in the week then turning drier.

For the final few days of March and start of April, including the Easter bank holiday weekend, the unsettled pattern is expected to continue. This is due to high pressure building away to our southwest near the Azores and to the east from Turkey into Russia. As we are sat between these two high pressure systems, lower pressure is expected for the UK and the storm track is likely to remain influential over Northwest Europe. This means it will likely continue to be wet and windy as weather fronts sweep in from the west or northwest.

As such, western and northern areas will bear the brunt of the weather. Southern and eastern areas will run a bit drier, although not completely dry! Temperatures will also continue to be fairly changeable, fluctuating around the seasonal average as fronts come and go. Southwest winds associated with warm fronts will bring some milder days. Cooler northwest winds behind cold fronts will bring colder but drier weather. Confidence again is high on the broad pattern, but medium on the extent of how influential high pressure will be on our weather.

There is a roughly twenty-five percent risk that high pressure to the east is much more amplified, keeping weather fronts off to our west. This pattern would also be warmer as southern winds bring air in from Spain and North Africa. But this pattern is a bit more typical of summertime. So despite the computer models suggesting this, it is more likely to be an alternative scenario.

Monday 5 April – Sunday 18 April

Possibly settling down again later in April.

The first half of April is shaping up to see an ever-increasing influence from the high pressure system building over the Atlantic. There are strong signals in the computer models as well as our statistical analogues (where we look at previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns) for this to develop. In addition, unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic will heavily favour high pressure development there as we head deeper into spring. What this means for the UK's long-range forecast is that, April will become drier and more settled as we head towards the middle of the month.

High pressure will build to the west and eventually start dominating the weather for West Europe. There is some uncertainty on the weekly specifics here as things like temperature and precipitation are highly sensitive to how strong and how near the high is at any given time. However, in general as the high builds closer we will likely have a period of northwest winds bringing cooler air from near Iceland. Later a surface high pressure system will brings in some milder sub-tropical air from the southwest. Confidence is perhaps medium in the large-scale pattern across the North Atlantic and Europe.

However, it will be low on the expected weather for the UK due to the sensitivity to the exact high pressure centre placement. Models are struggling with this and it will likely be difficult to pin down much more than 10 days ahead of time. The main risk scenario is that the high will stay too far to the west to block weather fronts, and the first half of April will remain unsettled. There is roughly a thirty-five percent chance of this pattern developing instead.

Further ahead

A closer examination of the first half of April will be in store, with fresh data to hopefully pin down where high pressure will lurk.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Australia flash floods: 18,000 evacuated and hundreds rescued as floodwaters cut off communities

"Hundreds of people have been rescued and around 18,000 evacuated as record rain brought more extreme flooding to Australia's east coast. Emergency services fear up to 54,000 people could be displaced, with rain forecast to continue until Wednesday.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison told parliament that 35 communities in northern New South Wales had been isolated and emergency services had conducted more than 700 flood rescues.

"We are grateful at this point that no lives have been lost so far," Mr Morrison said. "But weakened foundations for buildings, for roads and trees, they all create risk, as do downed power lines and rising water levels."

A year ago, vast swathes of the state were hit by unprecedented wildfires, but now some of the same areas are experiencing levels of rain only seen every 50 to 100 years."

Australia flash floods: 18,000 evacuated and hundreds rescued as floodwaters cut off communities

NEWS.SKY.COM

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Emergency services fear up to 54,000 people could be displaced with more rain forecast.

 

[Summer Sun]

UK weather: Britain could see record high temperature next week as COVID lockdown is eased... but prepare for a white Easter

"A mini heatwave could enable the UK to break its record March temperature of 25.6C (78F) next week. A southerly air flow will bring conditions similar to those in southwest France and southern Spain on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures are forecast to get very close to the record figure, set in Mepal, Cambridgeshire, in 1968. London is most likely to see such unseasonal March conditions, along with areas just north of the capital.

The warmth will be relatively widespread, however, with temperatures reaching the early 20s Celsius for many parts of England and Wales."

UK weather: Britain could see record high temperature next week as COVID lockdown is eased... but prepare for a white Easter

NEWS.SKY.COM

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The UK will enjoy conditions similar to those in southwest France and southern Spain early next week, but a cold snap will follow.

 

[Climate Man]

Brian Gaze and the Express don't know the difference between surface temperature and 850s. Headlines show -12 and highlighted by 850s chart 

[Climate Man]

7 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Brian Gaze and the Express don't know the difference between surface temperature and 850s. Headlines show -12 and highlighted by 850s chart 

UK weather forecast: 'Insane depth of cold' to end spring heat as -2C to blitz the south | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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BRITAIN is bracing for an "insane depth of cold" air to strike over the Easter weekend as a forecaster has claimed temperatures could plunge to a bitter -2C in southern England.

Ah, added 10 degrees to headline figure. Added an explanation of 850s too. Wonder who spotted the issues....

Edited March 28, 2021 by Climate Man

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold and changeable outlook

_________________________________

Wednesday 31 March – Sunday 4 April

Warm start with a cold, largely dry finish

Wednesday and Thursday will continue to see some warmer weather in southern areas, but the weather front in Scotland and Northern Ireland will begin to slowly advance southward. The further south it moves, the weaker it will become so most of England and Wales will likely stay dry with an increase in cloud cover.

The colder air mass behind the front will bring a stark difference from the warm, tropical air it replaces, with afternoon highs dropping as much as 10 Celsius is some places! This air will originate from nearer to Iceland instead of Morocco, so a fresher feel is in store throughout the country.

Heading into the Easter holiday weekend, the weather will likely be a few degrees colder than the average for the time of year but largely dry with patchy cloud at first. From Sunday and into next week the weather may turn much more unsettled, with a stronger cold front arriving from the north bringing polar air from the Arctic. This may only reach Scotland by Sunday with some uncertainty on the exact timing.

Monday 5 April – Sunday 11 April

Staying cold and rather unsettled

The cold air we're expecting is thanks to a large, strong area of high pressure that is beginning to build in the North Atlantic. Our long-range computer models have been hinting at this strong high for almost a month now, so we have reasonably high confidence it will indeed develop and stick around for the first half of April. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, will favour high pressure development. However, the big question is whether this high pressure system will be near enough to western Europe to keep things dry for the UK.

Our computer models are heavily suggesting that this will not be the case, and a trough of low pressure will extend from Scandinavia. This will help a deep low pressure system develop around Easter Monday and linger for much of the week, keeping it unsettled and windy but also keeping the colder air in place.

The combination of colder air and unsettled weather from fronts means there is a risk of some lowland snow, which may be heavy in places. Pinning down the location of the fronts is, unfortunately, not possible at this range, but we have higher confidence that it will tend to be unsettled rather than dry.
The only caveat to this is that our computer models have been very keen to shift high pressure in the North Atlantic towards Greenland, and they might be overdoing this. The risk scenario, which around a 25% chance of occurrence, is that the high pressure remains nearby and keeps things dry, but still rather cold.

Monday 12 April – Sunday 25 April

Settled and cool, turning more unsettled later

Through the middle of April, we expect the large high pressure system to the west will drift closer to Western Europe, forming a blocking high nearby. These are called "blocking highs" because they act as a roadblock in the storm track, blocking or diverted weather fronts from reaching the UK. In this case, it is blocking them completely as a weak area of low pressure develops near Spain and Morocco. This means we likely will not see weak weather fronts in northern areas from a storm track displaced into the Arctic Ocean.

Instead, it will tend to be settled, dry, and a bit colder than normal for mid-April. The high centre is expected to drift a bit closer and may become lodged overhead, which will send the coldest northerly winds into Scandinavia. It will still be below average temperature-wise, but less so than the first week of the month is expected to be.

Later in April, the high should begin to move around and we think the most likely scenario is that it shifts westward. This will allow the storm track to return from Scandinavia. The weather is expected to become more unsettled and changeable but tend to remain a bit below average overall. Any warm spells should be short-lived, lasting no more than two or three days.

Confidence becomes low by late-April as our computer models and historical statistical forecasts are offering some competing outlooks. The most likely risk scenario, with perhaps a 30% chance of panning out, is that high pressure shifts east into mainland Europe and the blocked high holds firm throughout April. This would bring dry conditions with a greater chance of southerly winds.

Further ahead

Are we likely to see more warmth develop through April?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold outlook with changeable weather.

_________________________________

Wednesday 7 April – Sunday 11 April

Cold returning by the end of the week.

Nobody really needs reminding that the Easter period saw a big change in the weather. Cold north-westerly winds brought snow showers, with temperatures dropping well below normal everywhere. A weak and transient ridge of high pressure will bring drier conditions for a while on Wednesday. Winds will back more westerly, so it will become less cold for Thursday, although not warm by any means.

Bands of rain will slowly move across the UK from the northwest as a low pressure system passes just north of Scotland. There will be stronger winds for a while, especially across Scotland and Northern Ireland. The front will weaken as it moves farther southeast, and the south of the country could stay dry and fair for longer.
But there will be some rain on Friday. Behind this front there will be colder air returning, and that will cause snow showers to come back to northern Scotland and Northern Ireland during Friday and Saturday.

Some of the snow will drift southwards into southern Scotland and northern parts of England and Wales, although these should be few and far between. However, the cold air might not get all the way south, and southern England should be less cold with a little rain possible at times. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week with north to north-easterly winds. There will be showers scattered around, mostly rain across South Wales and central and southern England.
There will also be sleet and snow for North Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Southeast England could see some more persistent rain lingering, thanks to the proximity of a low pressure system sliding from northern France through the Low Countries to northern Germany.

Monday 12 April – Sunday 18 April

Becoming less cold but still unsettled.

Unusually cold air will linger into start of next week, with low pressure to the north and northeast bringing in Arctic air. Southern areas will be less cold with respect to average than the north. It will remain unsettled, with scattered showers of sleet and snow, most of them in northern and eastern regions. Isolated flurries will be possible almost anywhere. Some showers will mix with rain, though, especially in the east and south.

The brisk and cold winds will ease, as we head into the second half of next week. Temperatures will be nothing to write home about, though, staying just below average, or near normal at best. Low pressure will move farther way to the northeast and a high pressure ridge looks like it could develop, extending northwards from France. This should bring some drier conditions for a while, with chances that it will grow into a somewhat stronger area of high pressure over the UK by the end of the week. This would steer low pressure systems away, bringing calmer and drier conditions by the end of next week.

It would stay a bit chilly, though. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on this and the model guidance is split with a large divergence. Some ensemble forecasts support this scenario while others paint a very different picture, showing a developing low pressure system moving in from the southwest. That would bring rain right across the country with stronger winds but also milder air, and this has about a 35% chance of being realised.

Monday 19 April – Sunday 2 May

Settled for a while then changeable later.

The latter part of April most likely starts with high pressure lingering and producing a rather quiet spell of weather. It should be cool for the time of year, or even chilly, but not close to being as cold as the first half of April. It will also be dry for much of the time with relatively light winds in most areas and some sunshine, although overnight fog will be a risk. This high pressure should block the path of any low pressure systems and tend to steer them more towards the Arctic, although trailing fronts might just bring some rain to Scotland at times.

Meanwhile, low pressure could also develop towards Spain and the western Mediterranean, and perhaps nudge northwards across France. This might cause some rain to move towards southern parts of the UK now and then. Later in April, however, it looks like the high will be on the move, most likely drifting westwards into the Atlantic. This will also bring the return of low pressure systems and more unsettled weather by the end of April and into early May. There should be some warmer periods, but most likely only lasting two or three days, with very variable temperatures, and cooler-than-normal conditions otherwise. Confidence is low, though, with continuing disagreement between models and with statistical forecasts.

An alternate scenario would be for high pressure to shift eastwards into mainland Europe rather than westwards, opening the door to Atlantic low pressure systems. These would bring much wetter and windier weather. There will also be milder conditions with winds more likely to come from the south and southwest. This has about a 30% chance of developing.

Further ahead

There should be a little more clarity on next week's developments - high pressure developing as expected, or will it be wiped out but a developing Atlantic low? And what about the later month? Which way will the expected high pressure shift?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cold easing with a changeable pattern expected.

_________________________________

Saturday 10 April – Sunday 18 April

Unsettled but turning less cold than recent days.

This weekend and the following week will see some changeable weather conditions across the UK as high and low pressure systems jostle for control over northern Europe. This weekend, a weak low will track across northern France and into Germany, bringing some cloudy and wet weather to the south-east on Saturday.
The rest of the country will still be under the influence of some Arctic air coming in from the north. It will be mostly sunny skies, but feel cold with scattered afternoon wintry showers. Sunday the colder air will spread into the southeast with some heavy afternoon wintry showers likely for England.

High pressure will then move across the country for the start of next week. This will keep things cold for a few days, but also bringing dry weather for the many. Scotland and Northern Ireland are the main exception here with some patchy rain and hill snow for western areas. A few showers are possible in western England and perhaps North Wales too. By Thursday high pressure will begin to shift into Scandinavia, causing our winds to shift to more southerly by Friday. This will moderate things from our cold start to April, finally bringing the temperatures back to near normal.

However, as the high moves away it will allow low pressure systems to return from the west. These will bring bands of rain and generally unsettled weather to most of the country along with some cooler air from the Atlantic. The good news is that although this air is colder than normal it does not originate on the Arctic ice sheet, so it won't feel quite as cold as it did for the start of April.

Monday 19 April – Sunday 25 April

Drier for some with changeable temperatures.

Unfortunately, as we head into late April the forecast gets a little trickier. The computer models have been particularly poor at pinning down high pressure in early April, and they are continuing this trend later in the month. This is largely due to the models struggling to resolve high pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic and bringing colder air. The good news is that we also use statistical forecasts based on historical weather patterns to help us produce the forecasts.

These are where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we have now to see what happens across Europe. For late-April, many of these forecasts are pointing in a similar direction, with good signals for high pressure to remain nearby or to the north. Following along from high pressure shifting northeast next week, we expect that in late April this high in Scandinavia will linger and begin to build north of Europe slowly. Meanwhile, the storm track will be in the North Atlantic and occasionally reach western and northern areas with weak weather fronts. The temperature and precipitation forecasts are tricky in this pattern and very sensitive to the high pressure.

But generally we expect a changeable week with the wettest weather in the northern half of the country and some dry, mild spells for southern areas. This isn't exactly a surprising forecast given that we are in the middle of spring. Confidence is low in the forecast and the details are likely to shift around a bit in future updates. But we have some encouraging signals for what to expect from the large-scale weather pattern at least.

Monday 26 April – Sunday 9 May

Slowly turning more settled and warmer.

The tail end of April and first part of May will be at the mercy of high pressure that should often find itself to the north or west, and low pressure to the south near Spain. The UK will be caught between these two large-scale pressure systems, so we will likely continue to see changeable weather. Again, we see some very poor performance from the computer models, so we are leaning a bit more than usual on our statistical guidance today. As we head into May we expect the weather to become increasingly more settled, dry, and warm.

One reason for the consistency in the statistical models comes from the strong signals from both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and how that relates to the weather pattern across the entire northern hemisphere. Some very warm sea surface temperatures near Japan have helped build a large, strong area of high pressure. Despite this high being on the other side of the planet, it is helping to create a wavy pattern in the storm track that extends across North American and the Atlantic Ocean.

This pattern will promote high pressure in the Atlantic to the west of Europe, where we have our own unusually warm waters around the Azores. So even though we have very low confidence for early May, there are some good signals that high pressure will continue to be a big player in the weather pattern. There is a risk (with a roughly 30% likelihood) that the high builds more into the western Atlantic closer to North America, which would tend to keep things unsettled for us throughout May.

Further ahead

Hopefully we will get some better performance from the computer models and increase our confidence a bit for the late April and early May outlook.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Climate Man]

Well the Express say it will be 42 deg F above average in a week. Translated deg Celsius above average to the F equivalent of that temperature. 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning gradually more settled and warmer

_________________________________

Wednesday 14 April – Sunday 18 April

Mostly dry and cold, but milder this weekend.

In a change from the previous forecast, the colder air that has been with us for most of March and April isn't quite finished yet and is likely to remain for the rest of this week. This is coming with high pressure though, so while it is colder than normal for mid-April, it's also mostly dry and settled too. Afternoons will see clouds develop for many with a slight chance of showers in a few spots, but most of the country will stay dry. Weak fronts nearby will keep Northern Ireland and western and northern Scotland mostly cloudy through Friday.

This weekend, high pressure overhead will begin to shift away into Scandinavia and decline. This will allow the weakened weather fronts from the Atlantic to slowly move into western parts of the UK, bringing cloudier skies, patchy rain, and also moderate the temperatures a little. We still expect temperatures to be below average this week, but it will be only slightly cooler than normal rather than several degrees below normal.

The big question is whether the patchy rain will spread much into England and Wales later in the weekend. A weak ridge of high pressure will extend into Southeast England from the North Sea, and this may be strong enough to keep the rain off to the west and north. Even if the weakened weather front pushes further east, any rain will be very light and patchy, leaving most places dry.

Monday 19 April – Sunday 25 April

Drier and settled with fresh Atlantic air

The computer models have become better aligned for late-April. They are also in agreement with our historical analogues (where we examine previous years since 1950 with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing now) so confidence has increased. High pressure is still expected to be in charge across northern Europe at the end of April and this will keep things dry, settled, and not nearly as cold as of late for the UK.

The temperature forecasts are tricky in this pattern and very sensitive to the area of high pressure, but generally we expect temperatures to be close to average for the time of year or perhaps a touch below and more settled weather. Weak weather fronts from the Atlantic may be able to clip northern or western areas at times, so it may not be completely dry and settled everywhere. Eastern and southern areas may not see much in the way of rain apart from the occasional light shower during the afternoons.

Confidence has improved to medium for the forecast with the strongest signals for high pressure to be the dominant weather feature. Confidence is a bit lower with regard to temperatures and there is roughly a 25% chance that it ends up cold again. If high pressure is too far northwest and closer to Iceland, northerly winds will transport Arctic air into the UK for the third time this spring. There is less support for this in the latest computer models, but we still need to keep an eye on it as the cold has been rather tenacious this year.

Monday 3 May – Sunday 16 May

Slowly turning more settled and warmer

The tail end of April and first part of May will be at the mercy of high pressure that should often be to the north of Europe while low pressure lingers to the south near Spain. The UK will be caught between these two large-scale pressure systems so we are likely to continue to see changeable weather as the weather systems jostle for control.

Again, we see some very poor performance from the computer models, so we are leaning a bit more than usual on our historical guidance. There are some strong signals for high pressure to stick around nearby or overhead, so as we head into May we expect the weather to become increasingly settled, dry, and warm. The low near Spain will tend to send North African and Mediterranean air into France, and this is likely to reach southern areas of the UK too.

One reason for consistency in the statistical models comes from the strong signals in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and how that relates to the weather pattern across the northern hemisphere. Some very warm sea-surface temperatures near Japan have helped build a large, strong area of high pressure. Despite this area of high pressure being on the other side of the world, it is helping to create a wavy pattern in the storm track that extends across North America and the Atlantic Ocean. This pattern will promote high pressure in the Atlantic where we have unusually warm waters around the Azores.

So even though there is still low confidence for early May, there are some good signals that high pressure will continue to be a big player in the weather pattern.

Further ahead

Can we expect warmer and settled late-spring weather to develop through May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly dry and settled, uncertain temperatures.

_________________________________

Saturday 17 April – Sunday 25 April

Dry and settled for most, slightly cool.

High pressure that has been overhead throughout the past week will begin to weaken and shift away to the east this weekend. This will allow temperatures to moderate. This will also let a weakened cold front into western and northern areas, bringing some patchy but mostly light rain.

Southern and eastern areas, and most of England, will tend to have mostly sunny and dry weather this weekend, although the sun may be hazy at times. Early next week as high pressure finally slides off to the east, the weak front will pass through southern and eastern areas too. However, by this point the front should be so weak that there will be hardly any rain on it at all.

What happens next, from Wednesday, is where things get a little bit tricky. A second high pressure system is expected to build in from the Atlantic, bringing more dry and settled weather to the UK for the rest of the week and following weekend. However, the temperatures are still pretty tricky to pin down, even at this relatively short range. This high is likely to grab some air from near Iceland and the North Atlantic. Therefore, temperatures are likely to dip below average for at least a few days.

How far east the high pressure shifts will determine how cold it gets into the weekend. Right now, the latest computer model guidance is suggesting a third Arctic blast with temperatures falling well below average again. However, there is stronger support for things to be cool, but not overly cold. The computer models are likely overestimating the magnitude of cold by developing a brisk northerly wind. Confidence for next week is medium overall, with low confidence on the temperatures but high confidence on dry, settled weather.

Monday 26 April – Sunday 2 May

Likely dry and settled with cool Atlantic air.

For the end of April and start of May, the temperature forecast doesn't get any easier to pin down. High pressure is expected to be a major player in the weather pattern for northern Europe. But we are having trouble working out exactly where it will end up. There are strong signals for high pressure to be nearby in both the computer models and our historical analogues (where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe to what we are seeing now).

We are leaning a bit more on the historical analogues given the recent very poor performance from the computer models. These analogues suggest nearby high pressure, so we have reasonably high confidence in a settled and largely dry pattern. The temperatures will be extremely sensitive to where the high is and what sort of air the winds will blow into the UK.

If the high is mainly to our west, we will get colder Atlantic air from near Iceland, so temperatures will tend to be below average. This is the outlook we prefer, which has some support for computer models too. If the high is too close to Iceland to our northwest, we will get Arctic air and temperatures will be well below average.

If instead the high shifts east and over Scandinavia, we can tap into Spain or Mediterranean air and temperatures will climb above average. This pattern would also be a bit wetter for southern areas with some heavy rain showers from France. These temperature shifts can happen if the high centre moves by as little as 500 miles, which might seem like a long way for us, but it's a very short distance for a continent-sized weather system! Confidence for temperatures remains very low.

Monday 3 May – Sunday 16 May

Settled for a time, perhaps more unsettled later.

The first half of May should bring further high pressure for a time, leading to some drier weather with changeable temperatures as the high centre shifts about. This is again supported by some of the computer model outlook and a many of our historical analogues. Similar to the previous weeks though, we can't pin down where exactly the high centre will be. The temperature forecast is extremely sensitive to the location being precise.

What we can tell you with some reasonable confidence is that May should start out largely dry and settled with perhaps a bit brief spells of rain for some.
As we head towards the middle of the month, high pressure may shift away for a time and allow the storm track to strengthen and return to northwest Europe. This would bring more unsettled weather back to the UK after a lengthy dry spell along with milder temperatures as warm fronts drag in sub-tropical Atlantic air. This pattern is more likely to develop later in May, and we will have to wait for the large high pressure in northern Europe to ease first. Overall, confidence is low for this range.

Spring is traditionally a difficult period for weather forecasts to capture the long-range patterns, and this year is proving to be no exception to that rule.
The risk scenario is that high pressure remains strong nearby, keeping things settled and making for a largely dry month of May, after a very dry April for England at least.

Further ahead

We will have some fresh data to re-examine our forecast through mid-May and hopefully will be able to shed more light on the temperatures we can expect.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly dry and settled, uncertain temperatures.

_________________________________

Wednesday 21 April – Sunday 25 April

Dry, settled, often sunny, but cooler than normal.

A tenacious area of high pressure from early in the week finally shifted east enough to allow a weakened cold front to cross the UK. By Thursday, this front will be clearing away into the continent as a second area of high pressure builds overhead from the west. This high is bringing some colder air from the north into the UK, although the coldest air from the Arctic should stay away to our east. Temperatures are still expected to dip a few degrees below average again after a milder start to the working week. The colder air will stick around for the rest of the week, but this will come under a stubborn area of high pressure that will also linger through the weekend.

Mostly sunny skies are expected with some afternoon cloud in places. We will also see little, if any, rainfall across the entire country. With it being late April, we can enjoy a higher sun angle in the afternoon that will help things feel warm while stood in direct sunlight, and a bit cool in the shade. Overnight rural and hilly areas may see frosts that will make for some crisp mornings. One thing to keep an eye on is a low pressure system later this week and weekend to our southwest. It should remain well offshore, but Southwest England and South Wales may see some cloudier skies for a few days. There is a chance of light rain as well, but only a small chance. Confidence is high on the large-scale pattern bringing dry, settled, but colder than normal weather through the weekend.

Monday 26 April – Sunday 2 May

Likely dry and settled with cool Atlantic air.

For the end of April and start of May, the temperature forecast remains pretty tricky to pin down. High pressure is expected to be a major player in the weather pattern for northern Europe. But we are still having trouble working out exactly where it will end up. Our historical analogues (where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe to what we are seeing now) suggest we will continue to see high pressure in the Atlantic or north of Europe into early May. This is backed up by the latest computer models, so confidence is a little higher than last week for the dry, settled, and cooler than normal pattern to continue. We are leaning a bit more on the historical analogues given the recent very poor performance from the computer models.

However, the temperatures will be extremely sensitive to where the high is and what sort of air the winds will blow into the UK. If the high is mainly to our west, we will get colder Atlantic air from near Iceland, so temperatures will tend to be below average but not overly cold. This is the outlook we prefer. If the high is too close to Iceland to our northwest, we will get Arctic air and temperatures will be well below average. There is also a growing chance of rain, mainly for western areas, through the week with some weak low pressure systems drifting in from the northwest. This should miss us, but we will need to keep our eye on their development. These temperature shifts can happen if the high centre moves by as little as 500 miles, which might seem like a long way for us but it's a very short distance for a continent-sized weather system.

Monday 3 May – Sunday 16 May

Dry and cool, perhaps warm and unsettled later.

The first half of May should bring further high pressure for a time, leading to some drier weather with likely cooler-feeling air as the high centre linger to the west.
This is again supported by some of the computer model outlooks and many of our historical analogues. Similar to the previous weeks though, we can't pin down where exactly the high centre will be with any sense of accuracy at the moment, and the temperature forecast is extremely sensitive to the location being precise.
What we can tell you with some reasonable confidence is that May should start out largely dry and settled with perhaps a bit brief spells of rain for some.

As we head towards the middle of the month, high pressure may shift away for a time and allow the low pressure to strengthen and return to Northwest Europe.
This would bring more unsettled weather back to the UK after a lengthy dry spell along with warmer air as winds shift to be more southerly. This pattern is more likely to develop later in May, and we will have to wait for the large high pressure in northern Europe to ease first. Overall, confidence is low for this range. Springtime is traditionally a difficult period for weather forecasts to capture the long-range patterns, and this year is proving to be no exception to that rule. The risk scenario is that high pressure remains strong nearby, keeping things settled and making for a largely dry month of May, after a very dry April, for England at least.

Further ahead

With better support for the colder than normal air to linger into May, we will have a look at timing when we might transition to a more typical late spring pattern of rain and warmth.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Arctic Hare]

Interesting snippet from the 26/4 to 2/5 section of that latest update:

"We are leaning a bit more on the historical analogues given the recent very poor performance from the computer models."

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Met Office and Microsoft to build weather-forecasting supercomputer | UK weather | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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System will be among top 25 supercomputers in world and twice as powerful as any other in Britain

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and cold at first. Turning warm later

_________________________________

Wednesday 5 May – Sunday 9 May

A cool, showery week and warmer weekend

The remainder of the first week of May will see cooler than normal weather persist through the working week as winds slowly ease. Scattered showers are expected in the afternoons, and these may bring hail and rumbles of thunder to some areas. In Northern Scotland, showers may be wintry too. As we head into the weekend, another low pressure system will approach from the west, but this will bring a significant change to the temperatures. Saturday and Sunday will see much warmer air move in from the south as bands of rain push into western and northern areas.

Monday 10 May – Sunday 16 May

Staying cool and showery for a time

The very warm air is not likely to stick around for too long, with a cold front bringing temperatures back below normal early in the second week of May. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will tend to be nearby or just to the south as high pressure retreats into the tropical Atlantic. Low pressure should be more dominant throughout the week, although we do expect high pressure to build back into the UK later on, towards mid-May.

As the high builds in from the south, northwest or north winds will develop on the northern edge of it, and this will continue to feed a polar air mass into the UK. Temperatures will stay a bit below normal for the time of year throughout the week, but around mid-May we should begin to see some drier conditions. This is due to the high pressure system from the south pushing the jet stream north of the UK, which will take the weather fronts with it.

The one potential hang up in the forecast is over high pressure to the northwest of the UK. If this high instead builds stronger to the north of us, it will set up a drier pattern with warmer air feeding in from the south. This would likely create a distinct north-south split, as Scotland and surrounding areas are still feeling the polar air while southern England and Wales get tropical Mediterranean air. There is perhaps a 25% chance of this developing instead.

Monday 17 May – Sunday 30 May

Dry weather at first; warmer and wetter later

The second half of May will increasingly be dominated by a strong area of high pressure from the southwest. This high, often called the "Azores high" due to its tendency to strength near the island chain, is a prominent feature in the Atlantic in late spring and summer as the northern hemisphere warms. This year there is also unusually warm sea surface temperatures in both the Pacific and Atlantic which helps promote high pressure development around the Azores and west of Europe.

Our computer models are not having a very successful time forecasting the long range pattern this month, so we are leaning a bit more on the historical analogues. These are statistical analyses of previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing now. Many of these historical analogues suggest high pressure will have a frequent presence in western Europe, but they differ on exactly where and how extensive it will be.

For the forecast over this fortnight, we expect a lot of dry weather with high pressure nearby or overhead. Temperatures will likely moderate and even begin to warm up as there are some encouraging signals for the high to finally shift eastwards towards the end of the month. This would also come with some wetter weather as low pressure develops to the west of Ireland. The main risk for this forecast, with perhaps a 35% chance of developing, is that colder air continues to feed in from the north with a more unsettled pattern returning later in the month.

Further ahead

With better signs for a warmer, but wetter, end of the month, we will look into early June to see how the start of meteorological summer is trending.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and cold at first. Turning warm later

_________________________________

Saturday 8 May – Sunday 16 May

Stormy weekend followed by a cool, showery week.

A stormy weekend is in store for the UK as a low pressure system pushes in from the west, bringing heavy rain and some strong winds. The warm front is also bringing some very warm air into southern and eastern areas, but only on Sunday. By Monday, low pressure will drift overhead as the cold front heads east, bringing colder Atlantic air back into the UK. This low will stick around throughout the rest of the week. This will keep the weather showery and feeling a bit below average, but not as cold as the week just gone was.

Monday 17 May – Sunday 23 May

Staying a bit cool but drying out later.

Heading into late May, we expect low pressure overhead to gradually get pushed away to the north and northeast for a time. High pressure building in from the southwest will tend to dry things out, but also promote more northerly winds. These winds will tend to keep thing temperatures a bit below average, so we aren't quite finished with our unusually cold spring. This pattern change should be gradual, so the start of the week may still be a bit unsettled with some scattered afternoon showers as low pressure remains nearby.

However, the end of the week is expected to trend drier with the cooler air lingering as high pressure builds in. We have medium confidence in the large-scale pattern, but lower confidence on the exact temperatures, which are still proving a bit tricky to pin down. We do think it is more likely to be below average than above, but how much below average we are is uncertain. If low pressure drifts east early and stays nearby a little too long, we may see a colder end to the week than expected. Additionally, there is a chance, perhaps 30%, that high pressure instead builds north of Europe, allowing a low to develop to the south. This would bring some warmer, wetter weather to southerly areas. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely be colder than normal in either scenario, so confidence is a little higher for them.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 6 June

A more unsettled start to summer, but also warmer.

For the last week of May we are leaning more on our historical analogues for guidance. These are forecasts based on a statistical analysis of previous years that saw similar large-scale weather patterns. These have been proving useful in recent weeks with the computer models having some very poor performances. One year that saw similar pattern was 2012, which ended up having a pretty wet and cool summer! We still expect that late-May will see high pressure shift north and east away from the UK, allowing low pressure to develop to the south of us.

These lows tend to bring some wetter conditions to southern areas and there is potential for some warmth too. Southerly winds can transport warmer air from Spain or Africa into the UK, but this will only happen if the low is further west. Again, we have medium confidence on the large-scale pattern, but low confidence on the temperatures. Early June, and the first week of meteorological summer, has some encouraging signs from the historical analogues for a westerly pattern to develop.

This would allow lows to move in from the west bringing unsettled weather but also warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. High pressure to the east and northeast would mean fronts would tend to stall nearby, so strong winds and stormy weather is less likely. The risk for this period is that high pressure instead remains nearby or overhead. This is a drier pattern but also a colder pattern as the high would promote northerly or north-west winds and continue to transport polar air into the UK.

Further ahead

We will have a look at the end of spring and start of summer to see how wet or warm things might get after a dry, cold spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

UK set for ‘summer scorcher’ as temperatures could reach 24C in August

"The UK is set for sizzling sunshine this summer as the latest long-range weather charts forecast highs of 24C. Rain, strong winds and stormy conditions are expected to dominate most of the UK over the next few days, as a new weather front sweeps across the UK.

But Brits hoping for some summer sunshine shouldn't have long to wait, as long-range weather maps indicate a 24C scorcher is also set to move in later on in the summer. "Ultra long-range" maps by the Weather Outlook, based on data from the Climate Forecast System, show a warm spell is set to sweep across the UK in August."

UK set for ‘summer scorcher’ as temperatures could reach 24C in August - Bristol Live

WWW.BRISTOLPOST.CO.UK

---

The start of the hot conditions is expected in just a few days

 

[jonboy]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK set for ‘summer scorcher’ as temperatures could reach 24C in August

"The UK is set for sizzling sunshine this summer as the latest long-range weather charts forecast highs of 24C. Rain, strong winds and stormy conditions are expected to dominate most of the UK over the next few days, as a new weather front sweeps across the UK.

But Brits hoping for some summer sunshine shouldn't have long to wait, as long-range weather maps indicate a 24C scorcher is also set to move in later on in the summer. "Ultra long-range" maps by the Weather Outlook, based on data from the Climate Forecast System, show a warm spell is set to sweep across the UK in August."

 

UK set for ‘summer scorcher’ as temperatures could reach 24C in August - Bristol Live

WWW.BRISTOLPOST.CO.UK

---

The start of the hot conditions is expected in just a few days

 

When did 24c become a scorcher?

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler, wet end of spring and start of summer.

_________________________________

Wednesday 12 May – Sunday 16 May

Cool often showery week. Occasionally cloudy.

The rest of this week is expected to continue much as it started, with a high pressure system in Russia preventing low pressure over the UK from moving away to the east. This means the weather will tend to be unsettled and cooler than normal, but also not particularly windy.

Afternoon showers will be likely most days with some thunderstorms mixed in too. A few days, namely Thursday and potentially Saturday, may see some longer spells of rain and cloudier skies. Although temperatures are a bit below average, afternoons will still feel warm with the higher sun angles of May.

Monday 17 May – Sunday 23 May

Cooler, showery, and unsettled weather.

Next week, and the final full week of May, we expect the high pressure system in Russia to linger, keeping a broad area of low pressure overhead. These highs are often called "blocking highs" since they act as roadblocks and prevent weather fronts from moving east. Instead, low pressure will remain in place and keep things unsettled and showery for the UK. In addition, the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will be displaced slightly to the south of us.

This is the main reason for the below average temperatures, as cooler air that is normally near Iceland is now over us instead. Around the middle of next week there is potential for a deeper low pressure system to send some weather fronts into the UK from the west. This would bring some widespread bands of rain and stronger winds for a few days. There is still some uncertainty on how far north the low will be. There's potential for some warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic to reach southern areas for a few days too, bringing temperatures briefly above average.

Confidence is medium for next week, mainly due to the low pressure system around midweek. We have high confidence it will be a cooler, wetter than normal week for most mixed with some sunny spells in the afternoons. The main risk for the forecast is that high pressure in Russia shifts too far west and reaches Poland or Germany. This would send warmer air into the UK from the south, and while it would still be wet it would also be much warmer with temperature a few degrees above average. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this developing.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 6 June

Staying rather cool and wet into early June.

For the end of May and early June, confidence is a bit lower, especially for temperatures. The computer model forecast skill is very poor at the moment due to the models struggling with high pressure in northern Europe. We expect the blocking high in Russia to tend to be a tenacious feature, but also gradually shift westwards with time. This will be a very slow movement and likely take weeks for the high to even reach eastern Europe. What this means for the UK is that low pressure troughs will tend to be nearby or overhead, keeping the weather unsettled and feeling cooler than normal for the start of meteorological summer.

We also expect to see occasional strong low pressure systems track in from the Atlantic. These will bring some wetter, windier spells with a chance for some brief warmth too. We are leaning more on our historical analogues for this range of the forecast. This is where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns to what we're seeing this year. 2001, 2012, and 1996 are proving to be useful years, with 2012 and 2001 being cool and wet while 1996 saw a brief heatwave in early June. 1996 highlights our main risk scenario, which is that high pressure shifts into Central Europe and send hot African air into the UK from the south. This could result in some well above average temperatures for several days. There is perhaps a 35% chance of this developing in early June.

Further ahead

We will consult some of the latest data to see if our risk of warmth in early June has increased and when we might break out of our cooler, wetter spring pattern.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler, wet end of spring and start of summer.

_________________________________

Saturday 15 May – Sunday 23 May

A cool, unsettled week with some heavy showers.

Through this weekend and next week, we will continue to see a broad area of lower pressure over northern Europe, which has lingered here for some time now.
A weakened low will bring some unsettled and showery weather this weekend and early next week. Some of these showers will turn heavy bringing thunder and hail in places. Later in the week, a low pressure system is expected to push in from the southwest, keeping things unsettled. Throughout the weekend and whole of next week, temperatures will be below normal, with the coolest conditions expected next weekend.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 30 May

Cooler than normal with a chance of showers.

For the final week of May, high pressure is expected to build strongly to the west of Europe. This should push the broad low pressure trough to our east. This pattern will bring a colder northerly wind and keep temperatures well below average. Normally when high pressure is overhead, it means the weather is more settled and drier. However, in this case, the high is expected to be a little too far away to prevent showers completely. Lows will tend to be further east in East Europe or Scandinavia, so we shouldn't see anything too wet either.

The most likely scenario is scattered showers and occasional weak weather fronts mainly impacting northern and eastern areas. The risk of lowland frost will largely be gone as we are at the end of meteorological spring. The higher sun angles mean that any sunny spells in the afternoon will still feel warm despite the below average air overhead. We have high confidence on the temperatures being below average, but only medium confidence on the rainfall details for the week. High pressure will be nearby, and it is entirely possible that the ridge will push the vast majority of the rain into the North Sea or Scandinavia, resulting in a drier pattern.

This is also still a cooler pattern for the UK, but perhaps not quite as cold. Our risk scenario has a roughly 25% chance of developing, so we will have to keep an eye on how strong high pressure begins to build to the west of Spain next week. The computer models are very keen on high pressure shifting overhead and into Germany towards the end of the month, but they are had a very poor track record recently and are likely overestimating the strength of the high.

Monday 31 May – Sunday 13 June

A cool, unsettled start to meteorological summer.

The first half of June is expected to remain largely the same as the end of May: cooler than normal and wet. We expect in the first week of June high pressure will shift more into eastern Europe, allowing low pressure to return from the north. There may be a brief warm up as high pressure passes by, but cooler air will be quick to return as the low brings weak weather fronts in from the North Atlantic. The second week of June is still somewhat shrouded behind the fog of uncertainty.
Computer model skill is still quite poor, and they have done an exceedingly poor job forecasting the weather for May. For June, we are leaning more on some historical analogue forecasts. These are where we examine previous years that have had similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing this year.

The strongest signals are coming from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and Indian Ocean rainfall patterns. These weather pattern support a cooler than normal June with high pressure often being a feature west of Europe. We expect we may see high pressure rebuild to the west towards mid-June, bringing another shot of colder Atlantic air and some unsettled weather. The main alternative scenario is that instead high pressure builds over northern Europe and remains in place. This is referred to as a "blocking high" because the large pressure system acts as a roadblock, preventing weather fronts in the Atlantic from getting into Europe. In this case, it would be much drier and calmer with a lot of sunny days, but temperatures would still tend to be near or a bit below average. There is perhaps a 35% chance of this developing instead, so by mid-June confidence is low in the weather pattern.

Further ahead

We will closely watch the high pressure building near Spain to see if it will bring us a colder end to spring and start of summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler, wet end of spring and start of summer.

_________________________________

Saturday 15 May – Sunday 23 May

A cool, unsettled week with some heavy showers.

Through this weekend and next week, we will continue to see a broad area of lower pressure over northern Europe, which has lingered here for some time now. A weakened low will bring some unsettled and showery weather this weekend and early next week.

Some of these showers will turn heavy bringing thunder and hail in places. Later in the week, a low pressure system is expected to push in from the southwest, keeping things unsettled.Throughout the weekend and whole of next week, temperatures will be below normal, with the coolest conditions expected next weekend.

Monday 24 May – Sunday 30 May

Cooler than normal with a chance of showers.

For the final week of May, high pressure is expected to build strongly to the west of Europe. This should push the broad low pressure trough to our east. This pattern will bring a colder northerly wind and keep temperatures well below average. Normally when high pressure is overhead, it means the weather is more settled and drier. However, in this case, the high is expected to be a little too far away to prevent showers completely. Lows will tend to be further east in East Europe or Scandinavia, so we shouldn't see anything too wet either.

The most likely scenario is scattered showers and occasional weak weather fronts mainly impacting northern and eastern areas. The risk of lowland frost will largely be gone as we are at the end of meteorological spring. The higher sun angles mean that any sunny spells in the afternoon will still feel warm despite the below average air overhead. We have high confidence on the temperatures being below average, but only medium confidence on the rainfall details for the week.
High pressure will be nearby, and it is entirely possible that the ridge will push the vast majority of the rain into the North Sea or Scandinavia, resulting in a drier pattern.

This is also still a cooler pattern for the UK, but perhaps not quite as cold. Our risk scenario has a roughly 25% chance of developing, so we will have to keep an eye on how strong high pressure begins to build to the west of Spain next week. The computer models are very keen on high pressure shifting overhead and into Germany towards the end of the month, but they are had a very poor track record recently and are likely overestimating the strength of the high.

Monday 31 May – Sunday 13 June

A cool, unsettled start to meteorological summer.

The first half of June is expected to remain largely the same as the end of May: cooler than normal and wet. We expect in the first week of June high pressure will shift more into eastern Europe, allowing low pressure to return from the north. There may be a brief warm up as high pressure passes by, but cooler air will be quick to return as the low brings weak weather fronts in from the North Atlantic. The second week of June is still somewhat shrouded behind the fog of uncertainty.
Computer model skill is still quite poor, and they have done an exceedingly poor job forecasting the weather for May.

For June, we are leaning more on some historical analogue forecasts. These are where we examine previous years that have had similar large-scale weather patterns to what we are seeing this year. The strongest signals are coming from the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and Indian Ocean rainfall patterns. These weather pattern support a cooler than normal June with high pressure often being a feature west of Europe. We expect we may see high pressure rebuild to the west towards mid-June, bringing another shot of colder Atlantic air and some unsettled weather.

The main alternative scenario is that instead high pressure builds over northern Europe and remains in place. This is referred to as a "blocking high" because the large pressure system acts as a roadblock, preventing weather fronts in the Atlantic from getting into Europe. In this case, it would be much drier and calmer with a lot of sunny days, but temperatures would still tend to be near or a bit below average. There is perhaps a 35% chance of this developing instead, so by mid-June confidence is low in the weather pattern.

Further ahead

We will closely watch the high pressure building near Spain to see if it will bring us a colder end to spring and start of summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Methuselah]

That's odd, for the last two days, the Beeb have forecast 'light rain showers and sunny intervals' -- reality: thunderstorms! And, we're supposed to take their monthly 'forecasts' seriously?

Edited May 19, 2021 by Ed Stone
Speeling

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled and cooler than normal.

_________________________________

Saturday 22 May – Sunday 30 May

Winds calming down but staying cool, unsettled.

After an unseasonable stormy weekend in late May, next week is looking a bit more settled in terms of the wind speeds. High pressure is likely to build to the west of the UK through the week, pushing the Atlantic lows from the weekend into Scandinavia. A cool northerly wind will develop in their wake, and this will keep things feeling below average to continue the trend of a cool May. Scattered showers, sometimes thundery, are likely for northern and eastern areas. It's looking drier and sunnier for the bank holiday weekend, but still feeling cooler than normal.

Monday 31 May – Sunday 6 June

A growing chance of scattered afternoon showers.

High pressure over the bank holiday weekend will gradually begin to slide away to the southwest in early June. However, this might take a good part of the week, so a lot of drier and sunnier weather is expected to start. Low pressure from Scandinavia will eventually find its way to the UK from the east, turning things increasingly more unsettled. First in eastern areas, but eventually for most of the country. The rain will most often take the form of scattered afternoon heavy or thundery showers, rather than stormier weather with bands of rain.

With low pressure east of us and high pressure to the southwest, the large scale weather pattern helps promote northerly or north-westerly winds through the week. This will keep the temperatures below average, bringing in air from Iceland and the North Atlantic. Our best bet to get warmer, more summerlike temperatures will be if we can tap into sub-tropical Atlantic or African air, and to do that we need a south-westerly or southerly wind. The main alternate scenario for early June is that high pressure remains overhead instead of shifting away. This is still a cool pattern, but it would remain dry and settled throughout the week instead of turning showery. There is a chance sub-tropical air may filter into western areas, but this is thought to be unlikely. We have high confidence on the temperatures staying below normal, but medium confidence on showery weather later in the week as there is perhaps a 30% chance that high pressure remains in place.

Monday 7 June – Sunday 20 June

Staying cool with a changeable weather pattern.

Through the middle part of June, we expect a rather changeable pattern to emerge across the Atlantic Ocean and Europe. Changeable in the rainfall patterns around highs and lows, but much more consistent in terms of the temperatures. The general pattern of low pressure to our east and high pressure to our west or southwest is expected to remain. This will continue to promote northerly winds and below average temperatures throughout the month. The changeability comes from the high and low pressure systems jostling for control over the UK. There are no clear signals for either to be dominant for the entire month.

Instead, we expect broad low pressure from Scandinavia to bring unsettled, cool weather that will occasionally be broken up by high pressure building in from the southwest. When low pressure is in control, there will be a greater chance for some unseasonably windy days from Atlantic weather fronts. There will also be plenty of sunshine and shower days as well. When high pressure is overhead, it will be more settled, sunnier, and dry, but still feeling a little cool for June. Timing out when we might see high pressure is difficult, and the computer models are having a very challenging time with this. We have high confidence that temperatures will remain below average despite the shifting pressure systems.

The risk scenario is that high pressure remains firmly in charge throughout the month, keeping it dry and sunny. This also brings with it a growing, lesser risk of warmth later in the month. If high pressure shifts into Germany, we may be able to get southerly winds to tap into the hot African air. We expect a 30% chance of the drier, high pressure pattern, and only a 10% chance of the very warm southerly winds.

Further ahead

Although summer weather still eludes us, we will look more in depth at June and try and pin down our chances for some drier, sunnier conditions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Brits set to buy 42 million pints as forecasters predict weekend heatwave

"Brits are set to buy 42 million pints this bank holiday weekend as forecasters predict temperatures of up to 25C in some parts of England. Thousands have packed their bags and are heading to top getaway locations for the weekend, with long queues forming on motorways across the South and South West of England and Wales.

Saturday is set to be cloudy but Sunday will bring sunshine to thousands getting away for the first time in over a year - on staycations and seeing loved ones. The end of the bank holiday weekend could see temperatures rise as high as 25C in West London, the Met Office said.

Many will also head to the pub with friends for a drink indoors for the first time in months"

Bank holiday: Brits set to buy 42 million pints as forecasters predict weekend heatwave

WWW.LBC.CO.UK

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Brits are set to buy 42 million pints this bank holiday weekend as forecasters predict temperatures of up to 25C in some parts of England.

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at times with some warm, dry spells.

_________________________________

Friday 28 May to – Sunday 6 June

A warm, sunny weekend with showers next week.

A warm and largely sunny bank holiday weekend is in store to close out the final few days of what has been a very cold meteorological spring. The warmth looks set to continue into next week for a while as high pressure lingers nearby to our east. However, low pressure developing south of us will bring some increased chances of heavy showers or thunderstorms through the middle of next week. Towards the end of the week and into the following weekend, some fresher Atlantic air and unsettled weather is set to return if high pressure to our east clears away.

Monday 7 June to – Sunday 13 June

Changeable weather, turning cooler and wetter.

Early June is likely to be marked by some changeable weather patterns for the UK as high pressure to the southwest battles with low pressure to the north or northeast. The best signals for cool, wet weather are east of us in Germany and Poland, but the best signals for warmer, drier weather are south of us in Spain and France.

The UK is caught up between the two weather systems and will likely see a mix of the two. Low pressure should be nearby to start the week off, leftover from the cooler trends towards the end of next week. But high pressure from the southwest will begin to build back towards the UK and push lows away to the east.
The biggest uncertainty in the forecast for early June is over just how strong this high pressure system will be. If it is stronger and pushes further north and east, the UK will see very dry and even warm weather.

If it is a little weaker, low pressure will remain near enough to give some wetter weather to eastern areas and keep the temperatures a little below average. At the moment, we are slightly favouring the latter, with low pressure close enough to keep the winds more northerly or north-westerly and maintain the fresher-feeling Atlantic air. Western and southern areas will tend to be the driest, while northern and eastern areas will have the best chances for rain. We have medium confidence on the forecast, but low confidence on the temperatures due to the extra sensitivity to the exact location of the high. Warmer weather is possible if the high shifts too far east. We have high confidence that it will not be nearly as cool as the second half of May was.

Monday 14 June to – Sunday 27 June

Drier in mid-June but more unsettled later.

The second half of June is expected to keep the changeable large-scale weather pattern in place with more influential high pressure in the middle of the month gradually giving way to lower pressure later. The best chances for some summer-like dry, sunny, and warm weather will be around mid-June when high pressure extends into the British Isles from the southwest.

This would drag warmer air from the sub-tropical Atlantic into Northwest Europe along a gentle southwest wind, displacing the cooler North Atlantic air towards Iceland and East Europe. Later in June there are still some compelling signals for high pressure to decline and shift away to the east, allowing the storm track to return from Iceland into the UK. This is a wetter and colder pattern with lows bringing in the North Atlantic air along with some occasional weather fronts. High pressure nearby to the southwest will likely occasionally reach in and give us some drier and more settled days.

The much cooler Arctic air is not except to reach this far south, so even though it will be cooler than normal it won't be nearly as cool as May turned out to be and likely still feel like summer. Confidence is medium on the forecast of a changeable weather pattern and alternating warm, dry and cool, wet periods. However, we have low confidence on the specifics for each week as timing out the pressure systems can be notoriously difficult in these patterns. For the whole month of June, we anticipate a slightly cooler and wetter than normal month broken up by occasional settled, warm spells.

Further ahead

We will use the latest data to re-examine our chances for any prolonged summer warmth as we kick off meteorological summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook