Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled start with drier, colder weeks to follow

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Saturday 30 January – Sunday 7 February

Unsettled start to February; turning colder

This weekend will see a weak ridge of high pressure over Scotland and the North Sea keeping northern and eastern areas drier. A set of weather fronts will cross the southern half of the UK, bringing heavy rain and hill snow to Wales, the Midlands, and South England on both Saturday and Sunday. A colder air from the north will lead to a sharp frost for Saturday night and Sunday morning. Sunday will generally feel noticeably colder than Saturday for many. Next week, as the colder air lingers over the country from Sunday into Monday, there will be a more widespread risk of lowland snow Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

This is due to yet another advancing front from the west bringing bands of snow and cold rain. The front will also bring in some milder Atlantic air, so temperatures will recover to a bit above normal for southern areas. From midweek through the end of the working week, lows will weaken and drift away to the south with bands of rain or wintry precipitation easing for most. It will also slowly turn colder with temperatures dropping to near or a bit below average. High pressure is expected to build over Scandinavia as we head into the weekend. This will lead to the development of a strong easterly wind on Saturday and Sunday. This will bring a sharp cold air from Russia into the UK and may well bring some wintry showers to eastern areas. There is some uncertainty on the magnitude of the cold at the moment, which is highly sensitive to the exact strength of the high (and easterly winds through North Europe).

Monday 8 February – Sunday 14 February

Colder start to the week but less cold later

In mid-February, high pressure is expected to remain over Scandinavia at least for the first half of the week, keeping things rather cold. This setup is similar to the classic "Beast from the East" from 2018. There is potential for some heavy snow showers for eastern areas for the first few days of the week. However, this is very sensitive to the strength of the high to the northeast, and a minor shift will see the easterly winds fail to transport the coldest air from Russia all the way to us in the UK. We have high confidence that the high pressure system will develop, and it will turn colder than normal, but lower confidence on exactly how cold (and the potential for snow showers). Later in the week, the high in Scandinavia is expected to shift a bit further south and southeast, nearer to Belarus or western Russia.

This shift would kill off any easterly winds through the North Sea, shifting them more southeast. This is still a cold flow for us in this setup, but much less cold than the first half of the week is expected to be. This weather pattern is also drier for the UK, so some crisp afternoon sunshine is expected. The main risk for the mid-February forecast is for the easterly winds to linger for longer into the second half of the week if the high pressure system stubbornly remains over Scandinavia. This would make for a very cold, windy week across the country, but more so for eastern areas where it will feel very raw outside.

Monday 15 February – Sunday 28 February

Gradually turning drier but colder

For the second half of February, the drier and colder pattern from mid-February is expected to continue for the third week of the month. High pressure is likely to remain strong to the north of Europe and into Northeast and East Europe. This will result in some colder air sticking around for the UK as low pressure systems travel south into the Mediterranean. There is a chance for some very cold days to develop if high pressure lines up an easterly wind to transport the very cold air from Russia into the UK, but these would only last for 2-3 days at most at any one time. For the final week of February, high pressure to the north of Europe is expected to slowly decline and shift further away.

This will allow the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, to return to North Europe. This pattern would allow Atlantic weather systems to bring wetter but milder air in from the sub-tropical Atlantic as cold air becomes increasingly confined to Russia and Scandinavia. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the pattern shift though, and these cold winter highs tend to be rather tenacious and slow to decline. The main risk for late February is that high pressure and colder air stick around through the end of the month and into early March, making for a cold but somewhat dry February overall.

Further ahead

With the latest model data we will hopefully be able to pin down the magnitude and length of the cold outbreak in early-to-mid February with greater accuracy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Colder through mid-February but largely dry

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 February – Sunday 7 February

Unsettled week with a colder weekend

From midweek through to the end of the working week, a low pressure system is expected to linger over the UK and bring quite a lot of unsettled weather. Heavy snow is expected most days for Scotland, generally above 200m, and occasionally into northern England too. Heavy rain is expected in the north and northeast as well with the low pressure centre often sat in the Midlands. Southern areas will be a bit more variable with occasional rain mixed with some sunny spells at times.

This weekend though, we are in for a change as high pressure builds to the north of Europe. This will gradually push the weak low over the UK southwards towards France. As the low moves south, a cold easterly wind will develop, first in Scotland and then spreading south through Saturday and Sunday.

The high will be bringing colder air from northwest Russia through the Baltic and North Seas and into the UK. As the colder air crosses the relatively warmer North Sea, heavy showers are likely to develop and move into eastern and central parts of Britain. With the colder polar airmass, these showers may fall as snow even to low levels, possibly as low as sea level. Western areas will tend to remain dry but cold once the low clears away to the south.

Confidence is reasonably high for the rest of this week, but there is still some uncertainty on how quickly the low will clear away to the south and it may linger through the weekend. The risk is for a milder and wetter weekend for southern areas.

Monday 8 February – Sunday 14 February

Colder, potentially snowy start to the week

In mid-February, high pressure is expected to remain over Scandinavia throughout the week, keeping things rather cold. This setup is similar to the classic "Beast from the East" from 2018, and there is potential for some heavy snow showers for eastern areas for the first half of the week. This is very sensitive to the strength of the high to the northeast, so it is still a bit too early to accurately predict snow amounts, but the greatest chances are in the eastern and central parts of Britain. We have high confidence that the high pressure system will develop, and it will turn colder than normal. The coldest days will tend to be around midweek as the air from Russia finally arrives in force.

Later in the week, the high in Scandinavia is expected to shift slightly further south and southeast, nearer to Belarus or western Russia. This shift should kill off any easterly winds through the North Sea, shifting them more southeast. This is still a cold flow for us in this setup, but much less cold than the first half of the week is expected to be. This weather pattern is also drier for the UK, so some crisp afternoon sunshine is expected. Without a cold flow over the relative warm North Sea, the risk of lowland snow showers is also lower.

The main risk to the mid-February forecast is for the easterly winds to linger for longer into the second half of the week if the high pressure system stubbornly remains over Scandinavia. This would make for a very cold, windy week across the country, but more so for eastern areas where it will feel very raw outside.

Monday 15 February – Sunday 28 February

Cold, dry middle of the month; milder later

For the second half of February, the drier and colder pattern from mid-February is expected to continue for the third week of the month. High pressure is likely to remain strong to the north of Europe and into northeast and eastern Europe, resulting in some colder air sticking around for the UK as low pressure systems travel south into the Mediterranean. There is a chance for a few brief mild spells to break up the cold as weak fronts find their way into the UK from the southwest, but these are expected to be short-lived 1-2 day events.

For the final week of February, high pressure to the north of Europe is expected to slowly decline and shift further away, allowing the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, to return to northern Europe. This type of pattern allows Atlantic weather systems to bring wetter but milder air in from the sub-tropical Atlantic as cold air becomes increasingly confined to Russia and Scandinavia.

There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the pattern shift though, and these cold winter highs tend to be rather tenacious and slow to decline. The main risk for late February is that high pressure and colder air stick around through the end of the month and into early March, making for a cold but somewhat dry February overall.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Next 10 days

Turning colder for all
Some heavy snowfall
Risk of significant disruption

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55895894

 

[Jo Farrow]

Imagine the glum faces at The Express 

even Nathan Rao is back. "BUT IM TELLING THE TRUTH this time

it is going to snow lots, there will be half a metre of snow. PLEASE believe me

don't bump me for Boris

Edited February 4, 2021 by Jo Farrow

[Summer Sun]

Cold and snowy to start next week hints of milder air trying to push in later next week

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Turning very cold across the UK this weekend with disruptive snow for some. Signs of milder air trying to return later next week.

 

[Summer Sun]

'Beast from the East Two' to bring snow, ice and floods

"People are being urged to check in on the elderly and vulnerable as snow, ice and floods threaten disruption. Amber warnings of heavy snow that could cause severe disruption to transport and utilities cover much of northern Scotland on Saturday.  They are also in place in parts of south-east England where Storm Darcy could bring winds and snow on Sunday. 

Met Office weather expert Steven Keates said there will be "many similarities" to the Beast from the East in 2018.  Asked whether he thinks it was fair to call it the Beast from the East Two, he said: "I think so. The air mass is not quite as cold as it was then, so it's not quite as extreme, but nonetheless this is probably the coldest weather we'll see across the UK as a whole since then."

 

'Beast from the East Two' to bring snow, ice and floods

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The cold snap will not be as extreme as in 2018, forecasters say, but will cause disruption this weekend.

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often staying cold through the rest of February

_________________________________

Saturday 6 February – Sunday 14 February

A bitterly cold, in places snowy week ahead.

This weekend will mark the start of what will turn out to be a very cold and, in places, quite snowy week as we head into mid-February. As a weak low pressure system drifts south across the UK on Saturday and Sunday, a strong easterly wind will develop on the northern side of the low. This is in response to high pressure building in Scandinavia, which is helping to send very cold air our way from Russia. As this very cold air crosses the (relatively) warmer North Sea, it will generate showers that will spread into eastern and central parts of Britain. These showers will fall as snow, even to low levels, and may be quite heavy at times.

By Sunday and into the first half of next week, the heaviest snow will shift from eastern Scotland to south-east England, which will see a brisk easterly wind accompanying it. 10-20cm of new snow is possible in some places in the east, and with the stronger winds there may be blizzard conditions in parts of the south-east, especially around the Thames Estuary. Scattered blustery snow showers will frequent eastern shores and drift into central Britain throughout the week, but the south-east may see occasional drier days as showers largely stay north of Lincolnshire.

In addition to the snow in the east, the strong easterly wind will bring a bitterly cold air in from Russia. Temperatures will widely be well below average, and some days it may struggle to get much above freezing for many. Northern Scotland may dip below -15C in places overnight. There is a chance (roughly 20%) that low pressure systems will bring some milder air into western areas by next weekend, but that will only happen if the high weakens more than we think it will.

Monday 15 February – Sunday 21 February

Another cold, largely dry week for most

Through the middle of February there are some decent signals that we will continue to see high pressure to our north or northeast, similar to the week before. This means that colder, drier weather is expected to continue for the UK, and winds will often be out of the east or southeast. However, we may see extensions of the high build south into Northwest or Central Europe. This is still a cold pattern for us, but these ridges will kill off the cold winds and ease the chances of any wintry showers. Scotland will feel the influence of these ridges of high pressure more often, so it is expected to be largely dry through the week for them. England may see occasional days with scattered wintry showers in the east and central areas, while Wales and Northern Ireland stay largely dry and cold. Some sharp overnight frosts are likely most nights.

Computer models have been loathe to keep high pressure to the north and instead want to move it from Scandinavia into east Europe. Historically when these large, cold high pressure systems develop, they don't tend to move much. We expect this one to be no different, and it will likely persist into late-February and remain mainly north of us.

There is a chance if the high is slightly too far east or southeast, low pressure systems from the Atlantic will be able to reach western areas (and potentially further east at times). This would be a milder, wetter pattern, and with the stark difference in temperatures between the airmasses, this could lead to a very large daily temperature swing despite the large-scale weather pattern only shifting slightly. Therefore, confidence in the daily temperatures is low, but confidence is medium that overall, the week will be below average.

Monday 22 February – Sunday 7 March

Cold with a chance of unsettled weather later.

Towards the end of February and into the first week of March, the forecast becomes trickier to pick out. There are a lot of signals from teleconnections (large-scale atmospheric patterns that can influence UK weather from afar) that we may continue to see a colder, drier pattern through this period as high pressure lingers north of us. One such pattern is called the Arctic Oscillation, or AO for short, and it is currently strongly negative. This means that there's higher pressure than there should be over the Arctic ice cap. Historically, when this pattern has occurred in January and early February, it continues through late February and early March. High pressure north of the UK leads to a colder pattern for North Europe, but also a lot of drier than normal weather too with some crisp, sunny afternoons.

Computer model skill at this range for this particular pattern is expected to be rather poor this month, so we are leaning more on these historical precedents which can prove quite useful for our long-range forecasts. However, it does mean confidence is rather low, and there is a good chance that high pressure will weaken enough to allow Atlantic weather systems to return. If this pattern pans out, it will be milder, wetter, and windier (more like a typical late-winter for the UK).

In short, cold and dry weather is expected to persist through the rest of February, and potential into early March as Arctic high pressure dominates our weather patterns.

Further ahead

We will examine late-February and early-March with the latest data and hopefully be able to glimpse the end of winter and early signs of spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Weekend

Forecast hangs in balance
Cold continental air
Milder Atlantic air

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55971690

[Frosty_wsm]

Latest weather forecast on news 24 still going for cold winning out, that was the 11am forecast, would they not be using the latest data by now from the ECM? Or are meteogroup seeing something the models we get to look at aren't? 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Milder for a time but cold likely to return later

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 February – Sunday 14 February

A bitterly cold and, in places, snowy week ahead

As "the Beast from the East" developed early this week, temperatures plummeted well below average while eastern and central parts of Britain saw heavy snow showers. Further west, although it stayed mostly dry, hard frosts developed overnight.

From midweek and through to mid-February, high pressure is likely to build into the north of the UK and the North Sea, putting an end to the strong easterly winds, but not to the cold.

This large area of high pressure is likely to extend from Scandinavia south through the North Sea and into Central Europe, staying to the east of the UK. Winds will be light and shift south east, which will still bring in some colder than normal air from Germany. However, the biggest difference will be that heavy snow showers from the North Sea will ease.

By the end of the working week and into the weekend, low pressure systems and weather fronts to the west will attempt to get into the UK while high pressure to the east blocks them. We will end up under a battleground of two very different air masses for a few days, but as the high shifts eastwards the milder air will eventually filter through the country. This will bring a risk of a band of snow for many as a milder weather front moves over the colder air from the east.

Monday 15 February – Sunday 21 February

Milder and more unsettled for a while

Through the middle of February our weather (and the weather for all of northern Europe) will be at the mercy of a large area of high pressure, often referred to as a "blocking high". It gets this nickname because it acts as a large road block for incoming low pressure systems from the Atlantic. This means it will tend to be drier and colder for areas influenced by the blocking high.

However, that doesn't look like it will include the UK next week. We are right on the edge of the high, which is expected to take up residence in the Baltic Sea and Germany, but it looks like it will be just far enough away that will be see Atlantic weather fronts move in from the west and south west.

This means that, at least for next week, we are likely to get a break from the cold. The weather fronts will be moving into the UK from the Azores, dragging sub-tropical Atlantic air with them. Temperatures will go from bitterly cold in places this week, to several degrees above average next week, making for quite a change. This will come with wetter and windier conditions too, these most frequent in southern and western areas.

Our forecast is very sensitive to the exact strength and position of the high, and some minor shifts could see the blocked pattern move over us. If the high is a bit further east, weather fronts will tend to be stronger and more frequent, leading to an even windier and wetter outlook. If we do get some cold filter back in from the east, it is likely to hit only eastern areas and not be nearly as frigid as we have experienced in recent days.

Monday 22 February – Sunday 7 March

Cold patterns return and may linger into March

Towards the end of February and into the first week of March, the forecast becomes trickier to pin down. There are a lot of signals from teleconnections (large-scale atmospheric patterns that can influence UK weather from afar) that we may see a return of a colder, drier pattern as high pressure edges back into northern Europe.

One such pattern is called the Arctic Oscillation, or AO for short, and it is currently strongly negative. This means that there is higher pressure than normal over the Arctic ice cap. Historically, when this pattern has occurred in January and early February, it continues to dominate through to early March.

High pressure north of the UK leads to a colder pattern for North Europe, but also a lot of drier than normal weather too with some crisp, sunny afternoons.
In addition, "La Nina" is currently cooling the water in the equatorial East Pacific, and this tends to favour more frequent Atlantic weather fronts for the UK. This signal is mostly being overpowered by the Arctic Oscillation but should begin to dominate later in March.

Computer model skill at this range for this particular pattern is expected to be rather poor, so we are leaning more on historical precedents which can prove quite useful for our long-range forecasts. However, it does mean confidence is rather low as well, and there is a risk that high pressure will weaken enough to allow Atlantic weather systems to dominate (as La Nina favours). If this pattern pans out, it will be milder, wetter, and windier (more like a typical late-winter/early-spring for the UK).

In short, cold and dry weather is expected to return and persist into March as Arctic high pressure dominates our weather patterns.

Further ahead

Peering ahead into mid-March we will see if there are better signals for a return of weather fronts and an end to the cold, dry winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[78/79]

33 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Milder for a time but cold likely to return later

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 February – Sunday 14 February

A bitterly cold and, in places, snowy week ahead

As "the Beast from the East" developed early this week, temperatures plummeted well below average while eastern and central parts of Britain saw heavy snow showers. Further west, although it stayed mostly dry, hard frosts developed overnight.

From midweek and through to mid-February, high pressure is likely to build into the north of the UK and the North Sea, putting an end to the strong easterly winds, but not to the cold.

This large area of high pressure is likely to extend from Scandinavia south through the North Sea and into Central Europe, staying to the east of the UK. Winds will be light and shift south east, which will still bring in some colder than normal air from Germany. However, the biggest difference will be that heavy snow showers from the North Sea will ease.

By the end of the working week and into the weekend, low pressure systems and weather fronts to the west will attempt to get into the UK while high pressure to the east blocks them. We will end up under a battleground of two very different air masses for a few days, but as the high shifts eastwards the milder air will eventually filter through the country. This will bring a risk of a band of snow for many as a milder weather front moves over the colder air from the east.

Monday 15 February – Sunday 21 February

Milder and more unsettled for a while

Through the middle of February our weather (and the weather for all of northern Europe) will be at the mercy of a large area of high pressure, often referred to as a "blocking high". It gets this nickname because it acts as a large road block for incoming low pressure systems from the Atlantic. This means it will tend to be drier and colder for areas influenced by the blocking high.

However, that doesn't look like it will include the UK next week. We are right on the edge of the high, which is expected to take up residence in the Baltic Sea and Germany, but it looks like it will be just far enough away that will be see Atlantic weather fronts move in from the west and south west.

This means that, at least for next week, we are likely to get a break from the cold. The weather fronts will be moving into the UK from the Azores, dragging sub-tropical Atlantic air with them. Temperatures will go from bitterly cold in places this week, to several degrees above average next week, making for quite a change. This will come with wetter and windier conditions too, these most frequent in southern and western areas.

Our forecast is very sensitive to the exact strength and position of the high, and some minor shifts could see the blocked pattern move over us. If the high is a bit further east, weather fronts will tend to be stronger and more frequent, leading to an even windier and wetter outlook. If we do get some cold filter back in from the east, it is likely to hit only eastern areas and not be nearly as frigid as we have experienced in recent days.

Monday 22 February – Sunday 7 March

Cold patterns return and may linger into March

Towards the end of February and into the first week of March, the forecast becomes trickier to pin down. There are a lot of signals from teleconnections (large-scale atmospheric patterns that can influence UK weather from afar) that we may see a return of a colder, drier pattern as high pressure edges back into northern Europe.

One such pattern is called the Arctic Oscillation, or AO for short, and it is currently strongly negative. This means that there is higher pressure than normal over the Arctic ice cap. Historically, when this pattern has occurred in January and early February, it continues to dominate through to early March.

High pressure north of the UK leads to a colder pattern for North Europe, but also a lot of drier than normal weather too with some crisp, sunny afternoons.
In addition, "La Nina" is currently cooling the water in the equatorial East Pacific, and this tends to favour more frequent Atlantic weather fronts for the UK. This signal is mostly being overpowered by the Arctic Oscillation but should begin to dominate later in March.

Computer model skill at this range for this particular pattern is expected to be rather poor, so we are leaning more on historical precedents which can prove quite useful for our long-range forecasts. However, it does mean confidence is rather low as well, and there is a risk that high pressure will weaken enough to allow Atlantic weather systems to dominate (as La Nina favours). If this pattern pans out, it will be milder, wetter, and windier (more like a typical late-winter/early-spring for the UK).

In short, cold and dry weather is expected to return and persist into March as Arctic high pressure dominates our weather patterns.

Further ahead

Peering ahead into mid-March we will see if there are better signals for a return of weather fronts and an end to the cold, dry winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Cold and dry will do me just fine thanks very much, they can shove their wind and rain.

[Summer Sun]

Outlook

Cold this week
Changes next week

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Staying cold for the rest of this week, but with a switch to milder conditions this weekend and next week. Darren Bett has the details.

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Milder, but turning colder later.

_________________________________

Saturday 13 February – Sunday 21 February

Milder, wetter start turning cold again later.

After a very cold (and in places, snowy) week across the country, this weekend will gradually bring a change to the weather that will stick around into next week.

The main culprit of the cold in early February has been a large area of high pressure in North Europe. This weekend, that high is gradually shifting into eastern Europe. The further east it goes, the less it will dominate our weather here in the UK. This means we will see more Atlantic weather fronts bringing windier, wetter, but also milder air from the southwest. Saturday will see one such front, which will bring a risk of snow and ice for northern areas as it arrives overnight into Sunday.

These fronts will be the main feature for our weather through until Thursday at least, and a few systems, such as the one on Sunday, may be strong and bring some disruptive winds to western or northern coasts. As is typical with this type of pattern, the day-to-day specifics are subject to change, but expect things to be milder then normal, windy, and often quite wet.

From Friday and into next weekend, the forecast gets trickier. The run-to-run consistency (how a computer model compares with its own forecast from the previous day) has been very poor. This is due to the models struggling to pin down where high pressure to our east will end up. We expect the most likely scenario is for the high to drift north into Scandinavia again. This would bring some drier weather for us and some colder flows again as well. However, it looks like winds will be more southeast from the near-continent rather than a brisk easterly from the Baltic Sea, so it will likely be less cold than the week we just had.

Monday 22 February – Sunday 28 February

Colder air more likely to persist

For the final week of February, high pressure is expected to continue to be the main driver in the weather pattern across Europe. However, there is some uncertainty on where exactly it will end up. As the high shifts through north-east and eastern Europe, this will tend to keep things colder and drier than normal for us in the UK. The main issue is that if the high pressure centre is too far east, low pressure will be able to creep in from the southwest, bringing mild and wet weather.

There are three possible scenarios we think could play out. The first is that high pressure is nearby in Scandinavia and keeps things drier and colder than normal with winds mainly from the continent out of the east or south-east. The second is for high pressure to still be north-east or east, but too far away to influence us. This would be similar to the coming week in mid-February, with milder, wetter weather throughout the UK. The final pattern is that we end up in a battleground between the colder and milder air, with western areas noticeably warmer and wetter than the dry, cold conditions in the east.

Based on the computer model long-range forecasts and our historical statistical analysis of similar patterns in previous years, we expect the first scenario is the most likely, while the second scenario is an alternate outlook with perhaps a 35% chance of occurrence. The third scenario would only happen if the high is in exactly the right spot, so while possible, isn't too likely.

Monday 1 March – Sunday 14 March

Unsettled and mild weather to develop eventually.

The first half of March, which is also the start of meteorological spring, will likely see a gradual shift in the weather pattern. We expect the colder, more blocked weather pattern with abundant high pressure to stick around for at least the first week of March. This will keep things colder and drier than normal, but there is still some uncertainty on the position of the high. If conditions line up perfectly, as they did in early February, we could see a return of a very cold easterly blast. It's still too early to call at this time, but we will monitor the pattern closely for any signals of a return of the 'Beast from the East'.

As we head into mid-March, high pressure will likely begin to ease. This is due to the conditions in the Arctic ice cap, which have been unusual so far in 2021 due to a displacement of the polar vortex. The polar vortex is a circulation of winds in the stratosphere (about 10-20km up) that helps keep the very cold Arctic air locked over the poles. In January and February, the vortex shifted into Europe and North America, which brought the cold outbreaks we are seeing now. However, the vortex has returned to normal levels over the ice cap in mid-February and is expected to stay there through March.

This means the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere should begin to return to "normal" although this often lags behind what the polar vortex does by 2 to 4 weeks. Normal for this time of year means low pressure systems from the Atlantic and with changeable weather along with mild air. Timing the breakdown of the blocking high pressure is tricky, so the main risk is that the high lingers into mid-March and keeps things cold.

Further ahead

We will see if we can pin down the timing of the cold pattern in late-February and early-March with more certainty and check up on the risks of very cold days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Likely often quite mild but cold lurks nearby

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 February – Sunday 21 February

A milder, wetter pattern persisting

After a bitterly cold start to February, the second half of the month is shaping up to be noticeably milder throughout the country. For the rest of this week, high pressure will stay well to the east and south. This will allow Atlantic weather systems to move into the UK, mostly from the southwest and drag milder sub-tropical air over us from the Azores.

Weather fronts will frequent the UK through the rest of this week and the weekend, often keeping things quite wet for many, but especially in the west and north. Between fronts there will be brief lulls in the wind and dry, clear spells. One of these looks like it will line up with the overnight hours on Thursday night, so central and eastern England may see a crisp Friday morning with frost on some hills. Overall though, temperatures will tend to be well above average and even getting into the mid-teens for southern areas by the end of the week.

By the weekend, we may begin to see more extensive high pressure building into the UK from the south or southeast, keeping weak fronts in western and northern areas and making for a mild, sunny, and dry weekend for most of England (and eastern Scotland).

This was our alternative scenario from the previous forecast, but over the past weekend it has become increasingly likely that high pressure will be too far away to keep the Atlantic weather fronts out. So this is one of those situations where the alternative scenario became more likely and at the same time, our forecast confidence as increased!

Monday 22 February – Sunday 28 February

Staying mild but also dry and sunny for many

Following on from the milder forecast this week, next week (and the final week of meteorological winter) looks to continue the mild trend, at least through the bulk of the working week. However, it will also trend drier for most of the country as high pressure tries to build in from the southeast. This high will push the weather fronts from the Atlantic to the north and west, so southern and eastern parts of the country will see some mild, sunny, and dry days. Western and northern coasts may continue to see the odd weak weather front keeping things cloudier and wetter, but overall it will be drier than normal for late-February.

These dry, sunny days in the South will make for some decidedly spring-like weather through the middle of the week as highs climb into the mid-teens. Heading into the weekend though, we should see high pressure slowly begin to shift west into the North Atlantic. This will be a gradual process, but northerly winds will begin to develop for Central Europe and bring some colder air in from Iceland. We expect that this will stay east of us throughout the weekend, but there is a chance it could arrive early, making for a colder end of February.

Confidence has increased for the forecast from last Friday and the performance of the computer models have shown some significant improvement recently. But we aren't quite done with winter just yet...

Monday 1 March – Sunday 14 March

Unsettled and mild weather to develop eventually

The first half of March is likely to still be heavily influenced by the presence of a large area of high pressure in northwest Europe which we expect to gradually head west into the Atlantic. As the high shifts west of Ireland in early-March, northerly winds will be able to bring some colder Icelandic air into the UK. This will be colder than normal, but not nearly as cold as the middle of February was! This is because the air in Iceland isn't as cold as the frigid air sitting in Russia.

As we head into mid-March, high pressure will likely begin to ease and head even further west, too far away to influence our weather. As it moves away, a trough of low pressure will develop over western Europe, keeping things unsettled and quite changeable. Temperatures and precipitation will likely be quite variable throughout the week as Atlantic weather fronts frequent the country. Warm fronts should be able to tap into sub-tropical Atlantic air from near the Azores, leading to some mild, spring-like days. Meanwhile, cold fronts will drag air in from Iceland, leading to crisp but sunny days too.

Confidence again is higher than it was on Friday, with a lot of our forecasting tools telling us the same thing (which is always an encouraging sign!). The main risk to the forecast is that it stays more high pressure-dominated into the middle of March, keeping things a bit cooler and drier than normal.

Further ahead

We will peer deeper into March and have a closer look at just how spring-like the first month of meteorological spring will be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Timmytour]

2014 - 2019 - 2021

Ain't it typical....... you wait ages for a once-in-a-generation freeze and then 3 come long at once!      I blame Global warming!!!!! 

 

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Ballsy tweet from the Sun...

 

UK weather - Britain set for 72 hour Arctic blitz next month as temperatures due to plummet AGAIN to -1C

WWW.THESUN.CO.UK

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BRITAIN is set to plummet into a 72-hour Arctic blitz next month as temperatures are expected to drop AGAIN to -1C. Recent weather maps forecast an Arctic weather front approaching the UK in the la…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Very mild end of February, changeable in March.

_________________________________

Saturday 20 February – Sunday 28 February

Very mild with heavy rain for some areas.

The end of the week will be very mild with plentiful rain for western and northern areas and rather strong winds. The heaviest rain on Saturday will be in Northern Ireland, Wales, and western England before spreading across Scotland. Eastern and southeastern England will be drier and sunnier. Sunday will be drier, but feel a bit fresher as the main fronts move away. Southern areas will turn cloudy and drizzly in places. While this is the last week of meteorological winter, it will feel more like spring instead. Temperatures will rise into double figures for most of the country, except northern Scotland. The warmest locations will be in east, central and southern England, where there will be the most sunshine.

High temperatures will approach the mid-teens Celsius, and on Wednesday potentially even the mid to upper teens in eastern England. As far as rain is concerned, there are some indications of southern and eastern England turning wet for a while during Monday. Meanwhile, other parts of the UK will have a drier interlude with some sunshine. However, the emphasis will shift back to northern and western regions, where bands of rain are expected to come from the west during Tuesday and Wednesday. It could be just chilly enough in northern Scotland for some sleet to mix in over the Highlands, but no significant snow. A few scattered showers could follow after midweek. But the weekend will be largely dry as high pressure builds near the UK. It will cool down a bit, though, with chilly nights and a risk of fog.

Monday 1 March – Sunday 7 March

Mostly dry and sunny but becoming cooler.

High pressure looks like being the dominant feature of the first week of March. It will likely be centred over Northwest Europe and near the UK, but there is some uncertainty over its exact positioning. This is rather significant to the forecast. Most likely, the dry and relatively calm weather will continue for a while. Temperature will fall to near normal or slightly below by the end of the week. Nights will become chilly and potentially foggy with crisp but fine, largely sunny days. The high pressure should tend to drift westwards towards Ireland and the East Atlantic. There is low confidence on how quickly this will occur.

But it's more likely towards the end of the week, when it might serve to draw in chillier air from around Iceland. Thus, we feel that risks of below-normal temperatures might start to become apparent by the end of the first week of the month. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure fails to begin to shift westwards, remaining overhead or even drifting eastwards into Germany. This will keep things feeling near or a bit above average for temperatures as colder flows stay east of us. There is a very small chance for some sharp cold to develop later in the week. But there is less and less support for this as we get closer to March.

Monday 8 March – Sunday 21 March

Becoming a little milder and more unsettled.

Heading through mid-March and beyond, high pressure is expected to recede farther into the Atlantic. Its influence on the UK's weather will recede. This would allow a trough of low pressure to develop over western and north-western Europe, leading to more unsettled and changeable conditions. Precipitation will likely be quite variable as Atlantic frontal systems potentially move through. Similarly, temperatures will likely be quite variable as well, but there will be plenty of mild spells as fronts arrive followed by colder snaps between fronts. Which temperature trend wins out is still uncertain at the moment, but we favour the milder days to slightly outnumber the colder ones. The later we head in March, the more dominant low pressure systems will become for the UK.

This means we should have a gradual increase in unsettled weather and day-to-day variability in precipitation and temperatures. There are not any strong signals at the moment for any prolonged sharp cold (such as another Beast from the East) or any prolonged warmth. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure stays more dominant throughout. This means cool and dry conditions would be possible for most of the month. This is more likely if the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that directs weather fronts, is stronger than expected in the Atlantic. That could happen is major cold outbreaks persist in the United States, so we will keep an eye on the temperature forecasts there as well.

Further ahead

A closer look at developments through March, and whether we can look forward to conditions typical of early spring. In like a lion and out like a lamb, or otherwise?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Dry and sunny at times, becoming more unsettled

_________________________________

Thursday 25 February – Sunday 28 February

Drier as high pressure arrives.

Wednesday's cold front will finally push away to the southeast on Thursday, with high pressure building in behind it. This will dry things out for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but there might be some patchy rain on Thursday for England and Wales. The cold front will bring some fresher Atlantic air into England, easing the very mild temperatures from the first half of the week. Winds will gradually ease as well, becoming light and variable across most of the UK, although northern coasts may cling on to a moderate breeze for a few more days.

By Friday and into the weekend, high pressure will become the dominant weather feature, bringing dry and often sunny weather with temperatures near-normal, for the time of year. There are also likely to be some crisp mornings following chilly nights with frost in places. Fog will also become more likely over the weekend with light winds and clear skies overnight.

Monday 1 March – Sunday 7 March

Often dry and sunny to start meteorological spring

High pressure will remain the dominant feature for the first week of March but there is some uncertainty over its exact positioning, which is rather significant to the forecast.

It is most likely that the dry and relatively calm weather will continue throughout the week with temperatures falling near-normal or slightly below by the end of the week. Nights will tend to be chilly and perhaps foggy with crisp but fine and largely sunny days. Scotland will tend to be a bit cloudier but will also see plenty of sun at times too.

The high pressure should drift westwards towards Ireland and the East Atlantic eventually. There is lower confidence on how quickly this will occur, but it is more likely to happen towards the end of the week as we draw in chillier air from the North Atlantic. As a result there is a risk of below-normal temperatures by the weekend as winds shift to a northerly or northwesterly direction.

If high pressure remains where it is, temperatures could remain slightly above average as colder airflows stay to the east. There are no signals for any sharp or prolonged cold in the models, or indeed any prolonged warmth as we reach the end of February.

Monday 8 March – Sunday 21 March

Cooler for a time before turning unsettled again

For the second week of March, high pressure will begin to shift away to the west. This will allow the colder flows from northeast Europe to move in, bringing fresher Atlantic air from the north or northwest. Temperatures will tend to dip below average, but it will still be drier than normal with high pressure close enough to keep any strong weather fronts away to the north. However, it won't be quite as dry as the first week of March, and some rain is likely at times.

Heading through mid-March and beyond, high pressure is expected to move away, allowing an area of low pressure to develop over western and northwestern Europe, leading to more unsettled and changeable conditions. Temperatures will also vary, with plenty of mild spells followed by colder snaps. It's uncertain which temperature trend will win out at the moment, but we favour milder days to slightly outnumber the colder ones.

Further ahead

Will high pressure stay with us and how will it influence the UK forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning more unsettled after a dry start.

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 March – Sunday 7 March

Mostly dry but turning cold for the weekend.

With high pressure overhead, the first week of meteorological spring has so far been a very dry. Low cloud is developing over the North Sea and slowly drifting into England and Wales, as well as eastern parts of Scotland. The further north and west you go, the better your chances are of more consistent sunshine. The weather gets slightly complicated on Wednesday and Thursday, as a weak low pressure system tracks across southern England. This will bring some scattered sharp showers (and perhaps even one or two rumbles of thunder) to southern areas before it clears away.

The Midlands and further north will escape any rain, but will likely stay dull with low cloud moving in from the east. From Friday and through the weekend, the weather pattern will shift slightly with high pressure building into Ireland. This will bring a brisk northerly wind and a weak cold front into the country from the northeast. The weak front will mostly bring rain, but some snow flurries are possible on hills in Scotland. Temperatures over the weekend will fall well below average for a few days.

There will be widespread frosts overnight. However, with high pressure nearby it will be mostly dry. By Sunday afternoon and evening, the next frontal system will begin to push in from the northwest. This may bring some late-weekend rain or hill snow to northern areas. The timing of this front is still a bit uncertain, and it may hold off until next week if high pressure remains strong.

Monday 8 March – Sunday 14 March

Cooler, unsettled, and perhaps very wet.

For the second week of March, high pressure is expected to be much less influential as it builds over the Azores - a more typical spot for it to be this time of year.
As it moves further away, a large-scale trough of low pressure is expected to develop over Northwest Europe. Low pressure systems will move through from the west or northwest throughout the week as this large-scale trough deepens. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that directs weather fronts, will tend to be just south of the UK through the week.

This means we can tap into polar air from near Iceland more easily. Therefore, temperatures will tend to be near or a bit below average, especially for Scotland.
Warm fronts will still bring some milder air in at times. But these will tend to be mainly for the southern parts of the country and only last around one day or two.
There are some signals in the computer models for a potential stormy weather during the middle of the week. This comes with a risk of some heavy rain and strong winds. Timing the low pressure system at this range is still a bit tricky. Everything will have to line up perfectly in the atmosphere to get the stormiest conditions.
At the moment, we expect an unsettled week with rainfall and winds a bit above normal.

Frequent weather fronts will sweep through the UK. There is a chance that high pressure sticks around too close to Western Europe and instead sends all these weather fronts into Scandinavia. This will keep us dry and a bit colder than normal. This has perhaps a 25% chance of panning out, with stronger signals for the changeable and wet pattern to develop.

Monday 15 March – Sunday 28 March

Staying rather unsettled and changeable

The second half of March is shaping up to be locked into a fairly consistent large-scale weather pattern for Northern Europe, including the UK. We are expecting high pressure to be a dominant feature in the Central Atlantic. This will occasionally extend into Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Meanwhile, low pressure will persist near Greenland and Iceland as well as close to Scandinavia and Western Russia. This will send weather fronts through Northern Europe frequently.
This will bring unsettled and changeable temperatures, which is pretty typical for a British spring.

Computer models are still showing some signals for high pressure to be more tenacious and stick around in Western Europe throughout the entire month. We do not expect this to occur, but the signals in the computer models are too strong to ignore completely. There is perhaps a thirty-five percent risk that we end up more in a high pressure "blocked" pattern. These are called "blocked" pattern due to the high pressure acting as a roadblock to incoming fronts, keeping them off in the Atlantic.

As such, this is a dry and mild pattern for us. There aren't any strong signals for widespread cold or warmth in late March. Temperatures will likely be changeable day-to-day. However, if that large-scale low pressure system we expect in Scandinavia instead drifts over us, temperatures will tend to be more consistent and a bit below average (while still being unsettled). To summarise, March should trend more spring-like as we head to the later part of the month. There will be unsettled and changeable pattern locking in by mid-month.

Further ahead

We will try and pin down some specifics on just how storm things might turn next week, and see if any light can be shed on the unsettled pattern for the rest of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?at_custom1=[post+type]&at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=bbc_weather&at_custom4=718022D6-7C38-11EB-A1AD-5E280EDC252D

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and occasionally stormy start to spring.

_________________________________

Saturday 6 March – Sunday 14 March

Cold weekend with an unsettled week ahead.

This weekend we will see high pressure overhead keeping things largely dry and calm. It will also be rather cloudy and cold. Cloud will tend to be variable with some areas staying dull all weekend and others seeing better sunny spells. The best of the brightest weather is likely along the western and southern coasts. Eastern coasts and middle part of England may have a greater chance of prolonged dull weather. At the same time, temperatures will be below normal with a risk of some very sharp frosts, where there are clear skies overnight. Next week, we will see the weather pattern change as high pressure declines over Northwest Europe.

This will shift away to the west in the Atlantic allowing low pressure systems to move in by Tuesday. This will create a stormy weather by the middle of the week. We may see a pair of low pressure systems between Tuesday and Thursday that will bring some heavy rain and potentially strong winds for some. There is still uncertainty on exactly where the strong winds will end up. However, confidence is high for a very wet few days at least.

At the same time, the lows will bring in some milder sub-tropical air from the central Atlantic, so temperatures will briefly rise above average. Towards the end of the week and following weekend, low pressure will linger nearby or overhead, keeping things unsettled and breezy. However, it will be less wet and windy than the stormy middle of the week. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that directs weather fronts, will tend to be nearby or just to the south. That means temperatures will be near or a bit below average, with the coldest weather in northern areas.

Monday 15 March – Sunday 21 March

Staying unsettled but turning a bit less wet.

The second half of March will continue to be unsettled as Atlantic weather fronts are frequently able to get into the UK. However, around the middle of the month, high pressure in the Atlantic will briefly shifts into the eastern parts of North America. Meanwhile, low pressure area over the UK will shift away to the northwest and be nearer to Iceland. This is still an unsettled pattern for us, but it likely won't be as stormy as next week with high pressure lurking nearby to the south. Temperatures are also likely to be a bit less cold as winds are more westerly or south-westerly and the jet stream is perhaps slightly north of us.

Colder conditions are most likely to be in Scotland with more frequent weather fronts. However, there should still be some changeability throughout the week as one or two fronts are powerful enough to reach across the entire country. An alternate scenario for this week could see high pressure becoming a bit more influential over the UK. This would create a drier pattern for the country with temperatures lingering a bit above average, although not especially warm. Computer models are keen on this pattern, but there is not much support for it in our historical analogues. These are statistical forecasts where we examine previous years that saw similar weather pattern to what we have observed in the past few months.

Monday 22 March – Sunday 4 April

A typical British spring looks to be in store.

For the end of March and first part of April, the unsettled pattern is expected to continue. While we saw the large-scale low pressure area shift to the northwest in the middle of the month, it looks like the low will return later in the month. As this low pressure centre drifts back towards Europe, conditions are expected to become wetter across the country with more volatility in the temperatures. There is greater potential for some stronger weather fronts to push in from the Atlantic.
This may bring in some stormy days again during the week. It is likely to be a similar pattern to what we expect for next week's weather.

Therefore, it will be unsettled with temperatures near normal, but with some variability as fronts move in. Pinning down the timing of fronts at this range is not something that is within our ability to accurately forecast. However, there is reasonable support for the unsettled pattern. Computer models are struggling with the position and strength of high pressure, so in these situations it is often useful to look at our larger scale statistical forecasts. Strong signals for Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies in the tropics as well as expected anomalously high tropical rainfall in Africa in mid-March all support a more unsettled outlook for the next month in the UK. Similar to the middle of the month, the main risk scenario for the end of March and start of April is more dominant high pressure. This would be a drier pattern for the UK with temperatures a bit above average. There is perhaps a thirty percent chance of this pattern developing instead.

Further ahead

We will examine the second half of March with fresh data and hope to pin down any potential for a respite in the unsettled pattern.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy then calmer mid-month

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 March – Sunday 14 March

Unsettled, wet and windy for the rest of the week

The rest of this week will remain unsettled and often very wet and windy, even stormy, with a succession of Atlantic low pressure systems pushing energetic fronts and troughs across the UK. This set-up could bring a risk of localised flooding, as well as potential for disruptive winds.

On Wednesday, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be drier for a while with just a few showers scattered around, wintry over high ground in Northern Scotland. However, a new band of rain will soon start to move across Northern Ireland from the southwest and then continue into Scotland. Meanwhile, England and Wales will have rain through most of the day, easing in the evening. Winds will strengthen everywhere, with gusts of 50-55 mph possible inland and 60-70mph over exposed coasts and hills, especially in the west and northwest. Rain will continue over Scotland and Northern Ireland overnight but change to scattered showers in England and Wales.

Thursday will be less wet with further showers rather than widespread rain, most of them in northern and western areas. Some will be wintry over high ground in the north, chiefly in Scotland, and in all areas there will be a risk of isolated hail and thunderstorms. Strong winds will continue into the morning but gradually ease through the afternoon and evening. Friday and Saturday will be similar, with blustery showers, mainly in the north and west, some of them heavy with a risk of hail and thunder, while northern high ground has further wintry showers. Southeast England will have fewer showers and more sunshine. Overnight there is a chance of more widespread rain for a while, and on Sunday another band of rain could pass through.

Monday 15 March – Sunday 21 March

Drier and less windy for a while

Rain or showers could linger into Monday but indications are for a change in the pattern early next week. Although timing is uncertain, it looks like a ridge of high pressure will build by Tuesday and linger through midweek into the second half of the week. The position of this ridge will be crucial to the weather type but there is moderate confidence that it will at least cut off the path of Atlantic low pressure systems and steer them farther north.

Scotland and Northern Ireland might still be susceptible to a couple of bands of frontal rain but for most areas this high pressure should mean a drier few days with more sunshine and much less wind, although fog could be possible overnight. An alternate scenario has the high a little farther south which would mean risks of occasional rainfall moving southwards. This is about a 30 per cent chance and has some support from similar setups in the past. One model pushes the expected high pressure centre farther north, which would induce colder north to north-easterly wind flows and bring a risk of wintry showers, mainly to northern and eastern areas but this looks to be a low risk at the moment. More likely, colder air will stay away to the east.

The end of next week has low confidence. High pressure could weaken and slip away but just where it moves to will dictate the weather pattern. Most likely it will shift into the Atlantic and allow cooler west to northwest flows to develop and bring occasional ran bands west and southwards. This change could hold off until the following week, while there is also still a minor risk that a colder north to northeast flow develops for a couple of days.

Monday 22 March – Sunday 4 April

A typically unsettled spring period is expected

For the end of March and first part of April, an unsettled pattern is expected with the main low pressure track shifting back southwards. This will probably bring wetter conditions back across the country with occasional stronger winds and greater fluctuations in temperatures ahead of and behind these systems. There is greater potential for some stronger weather fronts to push in from the Atlantic, so although there can be no specifics this far ahead, there will at least be potential for some stormy days to return.

Temperatures should be near normal averaged through the week but with fluctuations as frontal systems come and go, and some temporary chillier northwest winds are possible in between. Of course, there is no way to identify timing of fronts this far ahead but this broadly unsettled pattern has support from both models and similar past setups. High pressure reasonably close by could occasionally extend a ridge across the country and allow some temporary drier and calmer spells.

Position and strength of that nearby high pressure remains uncertain in model outlooks, so larger scale statistical forecasts come into play. Strong signals for Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies in the tropics as well as higher-than-normal tropical rainfall in Africa in mid-March tend to point towards the unsettled outlook for the UK.

Like the middle of March, the main alternate scenario would be for high pressure to be more dominant and closer to the country, potentially right overhead, which would mean drier and calmer conditions through late March and into early April. This has about a 30% probability.

Further ahead

Will March go out like a lamb as the proverb says? Or more like a lion as the forecast indicates? We will see if it starts to bare its teeth.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning drier then wet again. Drier April

_________________________________

Saturday 13 March – Sunday 21 March

Unsettled for a while longer then becoming drier

Saturday will have blustery showers, mainly across the north and west, some of them briefly heavy with a risk of hail and thunder. Northern high ground will have sleet or snow showers. Southeast and eastern England will be drier with sunny spells but a few isolated showers are possible. On Sunday, a new frontal system will move across from the northwest, bringing rain to all areas. This will be followed by scattered showers during the evening and night, although becoming confined to northern and western areas, with the gusty winds easing.

Monday should be largely dry with just the odd isolated shower as a ridge of high pressure topples across the UK. However, this will be a rather weak feature, and a new frontal system will move towards Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing rain during the evening with some sleet or snow for the Highlands. Overnight, rain will also spread across Wales and England, although it might not quite reach eastern and southernmost England.

During Tuesday, rain will reach all areas and it should linger across the eastern half of the country through to the evening. Northern Ireland, Wales, western Scotland and southwest England will become drier with some sunshine developing through the afternoon.

Wednesday onwards will be drier with some sunshine as high pressure builds. Any patchy drizzle should die away and there will be some sunshine for most also a chance of overnight frost and fog patches. High pressure should gradually weaken, though, which might allow some rain to start moving in from the northwest on Sunday or Sunday night. An alternate scenario takes high pressure farther northwest, inducing colder north-easterly flows with wintry showers in the east, and this would be a 20-30% chance.

Monday 22 March – Sunday 28 March

Wet at times early in the week then turning drier

For the end of March, an unsettled pattern is expected as high pressure recedes back to the Atlantic. This will allow the main low pressure track to shift back southwards, with systems moving across the country from the west or northwest and bringing periods of rain and showers with occasional stronger winds. In this sort of set-up, most rain and strongest winds would be expected in northern and western regions. This will also mean greater fluctuations in temperatures ahead of and behind frontal systems. There is higher potential for some stronger systems to develop as the week wears on, and so potential for some stormy days to return but this cannot be pinpointed this far ahead.

Temperatures should be near normal averaged through the week but with fluctuations as frontal systems come and go, and some temporary chillier northwest winds are possible in between. High pressure reasonably close by could occasionally extend a ridge across the country and allow some temporary drier and calmer spells. Confidence is not high on this period of weather because we are seeing some discrepancies in the medium and long range models. Although a return to unsettled weather is the most likely outcome, an alternate scenario could be for that high pressure to build more strongly across the British Isles and maintain more settled, drier and less windy conditions. This is about a 30% chance.

Given the contradictions in the numerical models, larger scale statistical forecasts can be useful. A positive Arctic Oscillation in February often indicates the general dominance of low pressure in the second half of March. Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies in the tropics also tend to point towards the unsettled outlook for the UK.

Monday 29 March – Sunday 11 April

Possibly settling down again for a while

Moving into April, the outlook is very uncertain. While models tell one story the statistical indications are for another. Looking at the models first, both of the major global models suggest a re-build of high pressure, bringing a return to generally settled weather by the end of the first week of April, with less wind and rain than normal during this part of the springtime. Temperatures would most likely be close to normal during the day but the nights could be rather chilly in places, and perhaps foggy.

However, models are struggling with the possible position of this high pressure, and there will always be chances of frontal systems brushing past from time to time, so it will not necessarily be completely dry. Scotland and Northern Ireland would be more likely to see rain from these systems, and an alternate scenario indicates weaker high pressure with chances of unsettled weather returning to a wider area. This is about a 35% chance.
Interestingly, another alternate but lower-risk scenario, around a 15% probability, has high pressure shifting farther north with low pressure developing over the near-continent. This would mean chances of rain and even thundery outbreaks in the south rather than in northern and western areas.

The exact alignment of this expected high pressure is therefore clearly crucial to the outcome and explains the high level of uncertainty through early April.

Further ahead

April showers or a drier start to the month? We will see if models continue to indicate the latter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable end to March. Drier, settled in April

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 March – Sunday 21 March

Drier for most with a cooler weekend in the South

From Wednesday onwards this week the weather will turn drier for most with some sunshine as high pressure builds. However, eastern areas may be clipped by some patchy rain or drizzle moving southwest through the North Sea, especially on Thursday. These winds will bring in some colder air from Scandinavia too, but only in the south-east of the UK. High pressure will remain in place throughout the rest of the working week and the weekend, keeping things mostly dry but with plenty of cloud around at times.

A north-south temperature contrast is likely to develop into the weekend, with the south and south-east of England seeing below average temperatures while the rest of the country is near or a bit above average. Clearer skies and calm winds in the south will lead to some widespread frost overnight on the weekend mornings. Meanwhile, cloudier skies and a warmer air mass in Scotland will keep things above freezing, leading to a peculiar situation where London is likely to freeze while Glasgow stays well above zero!

There is potential for a weak weather front to push into western areas late on Saturday or perhaps Sunday, bringing some patchy rain. This is dependent on the strength of high pressure overhead, which may well keep this front offshore to the west.

Monday 22 March – Sunday 28 March

Wet at times early in the week then turning drier

For the end of March, an unsettled pattern is expected as high pressure recedes back to the Atlantic. This will allow the main low pressure track to shift back southwards, with weakened weather systems moving across the country from the northwest. In this sort of set-up, most rain would be expected in northern and western regions, while eastern and southern areas see lighter, patchier rain, if any. However, high pressure is likely to return from the middle of the week, bringing drier conditions and milder air from the southwest again. This high will keep moving eastwards in contrast with the high from this week that will be largely stationary, so the dry weather will be shorter-lived.

Temperatures should be near normal averaged through the week but with fluctuations as frontal systems come and go, some temporary chillier northwest winds are possible early on. Confidence is not high on this period of weather because we are seeing some discrepancies in the medium and long-range computer models. Although we expect the weather to be unsettled with some lengthy dry spells, there is a possibility that high pressure will be much more dominant and keep things very dry, cloudy, and a bit colder than normal. This is about a 30% chance.

As is typical every spring, the computer models are really struggling with pressure patterns as we head into April, which is hampering our forecast confidence. This happens because the mid-latitude regions are beginning to warm up from their winter state, and this warmth gives weather systems more energy. The energy boost causes them to be a bit more unpredictable in the long-range.

Monday 29 March – Sunday 11 April

Possibly settling down again later in April

Moving into April, the outlook is very uncertain. While models tell one story, our statistical forecasts (where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe) are for another. Looking at the computer models first, they suggest a re-build of high pressure, bringing a return to generally settled weather by the second week of April, with less wind and rain than normal during this part of the springtime. Temperatures would most likely be close to normal during the day, but the nights could be rather chilly in places, and perhaps foggy. The computer models have been consistently forecasting a very dry, high pressure dominated pattern all through March which has so far failed to materialise. There are some encouraging signs that this will eventually develop later in April, so perhaps the adage that a broken clock is still right twice a day has some merit here.

However, models are struggling with the possible position of this high pressure, and there will always be chances of frontal systems brushing past from time to time, so it will not necessarily be completely dry. Scotland and Northern Ireland would be more likely to see rain from these systems, and an alternate scenario indicates weaker high pressure with chances of unsettled weather returning to a wider area. This is about a 35% chance.

Interestingly, another alternate but lower-risk scenario, around a 10% probability, has high pressure shifting farther north with low pressure developing over the near-continent. This would mean chances of rain and even thundery outbreaks in the south rather than in northern and western areas.

Further ahead

We will be able to examine early April for more detail and perhaps pin down the likelihood of a drier middle of spring versus some proverbial April showers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Schnee]

Beware the Arctic Dome xD! This cropped up in Leeds Live and Yorkshire Live yesterday......

 

 

'Arctic dome' set to hit UK today with snow warning and freezing temperatures expected 'until Easter' - YorkshireLive

WWW.EXAMINERLIVE.CO.UK

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We may have seen the last of the recent warm weather

 

[Timmytour]

 

32 minutes ago, Stelmer said:

Beware the Arctic Dome xD! This cropped up in Leeds Live and Yorkshire Live yesterday......

Brian Glaze....the Doctor Harold Shipman of meteorologists!

In the article

Quote

The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze said earlier: “It will feel more like winter than spring, with polar air expected in coming weeks.

In this article two weeks ago....

UK weather forecast: Britain to bask in balmy 20C heat as chart turns orange - new maps | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

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BRITAIN could bask in 20C heat this month, a forecaster has claimed, as weather maps show the country turn orange in the balmy temperatures.

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It comes as Brian Gaze at the Weather Outlook said the "strengthening sun" could mean temperatures even reach 20C, although it is still too early to confirm.  He told Express.co.uk: "At the present time I'm expecting an increasing chance of milder periods developing during the second half of March. "The strengthening sun and longer days mean there is the potential for it to feel quite warm, especially in the south. "The warmer conditions are most likely to come from the south or southwest. "I wouldn't be surprised to see 20C (68F) reached during this period."