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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

"Scorching Azores plume for the weekend"

 

 

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WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

HOT WEATHER will make a fierce return in the UK as temperatures soar into the high 30s this week.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Some hot weather at times, but lows threaten

_________________________________

Monday 10 August – Sunday 16 August

Hot conditions, but thunderstorms likely

This weekend, high pressure will continue to build across the UK, bringing plenty of dry, sunny weather. A northeasterly breeze with take the edge off the heat a little, but highs will be into the 30s Celsius across southeast England. It will rather humid too, making for some rather uncomfortable nights, with temperatures still in the low 20s Celsius overnight for parts of England and Wales. Over the weekend, there is a risk of some showers and thunderstorms developing, but this risk heightens as we head into the new working week.

Monday and Tuesday could see clusters of thunderstorms pushing up from the south, with heavy downpours and frequent lightning a distinct possibility. On Wednesday, further showers and thunderstorms look possible, most likely across southern England, with an additional risk of downpours and frequent lightning. The risk of thunderstorms should then shift away into the near continent into the second half of the working week, as the ridge of high pressure shifts eastwards. This will allow temperatures to moderate heading into the end of the working week as winds shift, but it will still be on the warmer side of average.

For next weekend, high pressure should build in from the southwest, bringing largely dry and fine weather, and temperatures slightly above average.

Monday 17 August – Sunday 23 August

A chance of another hot spell or heatwave

Around this period, high pressure is likely to be near to the British Isles, or out to the northeast over Scandinavia. This should bring plenty of dry and settled weather, perhaps with multiple sunny days for many parts of the UK.

Whilst high pressure is likely to be towards the northeast, there is the potential for low pressure to become situated out to the west of the UK. This set-up can lead to intense warming across the UK, as warm air tends to plume up from the south. As a result, there is the chance of another hot spell or heatwave during the week. After the heatwave conditions earlier in August, further hot weather could see temperatures trending much warmer than average for August as a whole.

However, with low pressure out to the west, fronts may creep into Northern Ireland and Scotland, bringing some wet spells of weather here. There is also the risk that low pressure is instead more influential right over the British Isles, bringing unsettled weather more widely across the UK.

Monday 24 August – Sunday 6 September

Wetter in the north, mostly dry in the south

Through late August and early September, areas of low pressure are expected to track over Iceland and near to the north of the UK, with fronts glancing Scotland and occasionally Northern Ireland at first. Gradually as we head into September, associated fronts will extend across the UK, with wet and breezy spells of weather looking likely for most. Rainy periods will probably be most frequent across Northern Ireland and Scotland, whilst England and Wales may only see fleeting spells of wet weather as fronts come and go. Southeast England will likely be the driest spot, with only the odd patch of rain likely.

In fact, a strong northwest-southeast split in the weather looks probable for this period. High pressure may ridge in from Europe to give lengthier periods of dry and warm weather over the southeast, whilst fronts pushing into the northwest will give frequent wet spells and fluctuating temperatures.

Since the UK is sat on the periphery of the two weather regimes mentioned above, there is considerable uncertainty by this point, as one weather type may dominate over the other for an extended period. There is a risk that low pressure areas track further south than expected, which would bring above-average rain to the south instead. By the same token, high pressure ridging may be more persistent and extensive over the UK, which would bring drier, warmer weather more widely across the country. Another complicating matter is that by late-August the Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to become rather active, and this can lead to large swings in the weather for the UK.

Further ahead

We will examine the complicated pattern for next few weeks and see whether there's a possibility of any further hot spells of weather across the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun ,Snow and Cold
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains

I find it really annoying when the BBC forecast is harping on about England and Wales will be hot and sunny but NI and Scotland will be cooler with cloud , well guess what I live in England and yesterday was cloudy all day and today is similar,there is no heatwave across England , it's localised in the south

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Fresher air but an unsettled pattern persisting

_________________________________

Saturday 15 August – Sunday 23 August

A fresher, cooler pattern with showers at times

Over the weekend, high pressure will sit to the north of the UK bringing a cooler wind for the northern half of the country. However, this will come with some low cloud off the North Sea, making for some dull days in the area. Meanwhile, a weak trough of low pressure in southern areas will bring cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain along with a few isolated thundery showers for some. Sunday and early next week will see high pressure shifting to the north, allowing a low pressure system to move into the UK from the Bay of Biscay. This low will bring heavy showers and a risk of thunderstorms again to much of England and Wales.

But these thunderstorms may not be as numerous or severe as seen in recent days. By midweek, a deeper Atlantic low pressure system will arrive from the west, with a warm front spreading into England and Wales. This warm front will bring one or two days of some slightly warmer than average air to southern areas, especially the Southeast. However, this will not be anything like the magnitude of the heatwave we just experienced. Instead, it will be a few days of temperatures into the mid-20s under mostly cloudy skies. The low pressure system will then spread into the UK by the end of next week and into the following weekend, bringing more wet, windy and generally unsettled weather. Cooler Atlantic air will flow in causing temperatures to move below normal for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Confidence is high for this weather pattern next week with no signals for any prolonged heat.

Monday 24 August – Sunday 30 August

Unsettled and cooler weather to continue

The Atlantic low pressure system towards the end of next week will herald a more permanent pattern shift for the final full week of August. Low pressure tracks are expected to remain over the UK and bring unsettled weather across the country. Therefore, August will later be cooler but wetter contrasting the dry and very hot start. The lows will be more frequent for northern areas making conditions in Scotland and Northern Ireland wetter and windier more often. England and Wales will see some dry spells, but with occasional bands of rain as fronts move through.

High pressure will tend to be well off to the southwest, keeping tropical air far away from the UK. Similar to next week, there are no strong signals for any prolonged heat in the UK. Temperatures are likely to be a tad below normal for northern areas, but nearer to normal in the south. Southern areas will see brief warm spells associated with warm fronts followed by a cooler couple of days as a cold front sweeps through. An already active Atlantic hurricane season is expected to become even more so by late-August. This may have an impact on the weather across the Europe.

Monday 31 August – Monday 14 September

Staying unsettled but turning drier for the South

Low pressure will persist as we continue into September and the start of meteorological autumn. This means that unsettled weather will remain, and it will tend to be wetter and windier than normal. Temperatures will be near normal for northern areas. Meanwhile, southern areas may see some warmer more frequently. This is due to high pressure beginning to build back into southwest and central Europe. As warm fronts move in from low pressure systems, the southwest breeze will be able to drag some of this tropical air into the UK, but likely only for the southern half of the country. By mid-September, high pressure will build more strongly in the Atlantic to the southwest of the UK.

This will help shift the winds to a more northwest direction. Atlantic air will tend to move into northern areas, while tropical air occasionally makes its way into the south. Low pressure will be to the north, bringing frequent wet conditions to northern areas with some lengthy dry spells for the south. September is the peak month for Atlantic hurricane activity historically. The National Hurricane Centre in the United States is forecasting an extremely active year this year, so we can expect several of these storms to develop in the Atlantic. This will likely impact our weather more in September, so confidence is lower still. However, there is some evidence that in active hurricane years, the UK sees more extensive low pressure in September. So at the moment all arrows are pointing away from any dry and settled patterns.

Further ahead

We will see if things continue to look unsettled into the start of meteorological autumn, or if any long sunny or hot spells are lurking ahead?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Officials are waiting to verify if the hottest temperature record has gone as Death Valley have reported a temperature of 54.4c.

Makes our 34c of last week look a bit tame in comparison 

C.S

Edited by cheshire snow
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Posted
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
  • Weather Preferences: Something good in all four seasons
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
On 17/08/2020 at 12:39, cheshire snow said:

Officials are waiting to verify if the hottest temperature record has gone as Death Valley have reported a temperature of 54.4c.

Makes our 34c of last week look a bit tame in comparison 

C.S

Presumably that is a shade temp.  /  in a proper weather station / Stevenson screen ?
Wow  !

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times. Occasional warmth

_________________________________

Monday 24 August – Sunday 30 August

Wet and windy at times. Temperatures near average.

This weekend, much of the UK will be showery and rather windy. Some of the showers are likely to be heavy and locally thundery. However, there will also be sunny intervals, with the best of these in the south. Temperatures will be near to the late August average albeit with the wind making it feel rather cool. On Monday, most areas look like seeing cloud and showery rain spreading from the west. Feeling cool under any rain.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the UK is likely to experience unsettled weather as a deep low pressure area moves in from the west. There is the potential for widespread and rather heavy rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds in places. The second half of next week should see a gradual change in the weather. Indications are for showery and breezy conditions to slowly give way to drier and calmer weather as high pressure approaches from the west. However, it is unlikely to become particularly warm with temperatures near or slightly below average. Confidence in the forecast falls rather low by the end of the week. There is a risk that wet and breezy conditions persist.

Monday 31 August – Sunday 6 September

Wet and windy spells. Occasionally calmer.

The first week of September marks the start of meteorological autumn and some of us can expect distinctly autumnal weather. Current indications are for low pressure areas to move in from the Atlantic; these lows are expected to bring wet and breezy weather at times to the UK. Wettest and breeziest conditions are favoured to be in the west and north, the south-eastern quarter of England should be a little less wet with nearer-average rainfall.

However, if we see the remnants of one or two tropical storms or hurricanes approaching the UK, some widely very wet and windy weather is possible. Most areas should also see occasional drier, brighter and calmer periods of weather, in-between the low pressure areas. Temperatures are likely to alternate around the seasonal average.

Monday 7 September – Sunday 20 September

A changeable outlook. Warm and calmer for a time.

Changeable weather conditions appear likely through the middle part of September. There are signs of a temporary change to drier and warmer weather just before mid-month, this is because high pressure may expand northwards from the Azores for a time. England and Wales are likely to see the lengthiest of any drier, calmer and warmer periods of weather. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland are favoured to become less wet and less windy for a time with nearer-average rainfall.

After mid-month, a return to wetter and windier weather is favoured. A low pressure track should bring above-average rainfall again for some, most likely in the north and west of the UK. Temperatures should remain near or slightly above average. The breezy conditions should keep the nights often mild.

Further ahead

September is currently shaping-up to be wet and windy at times. We will take another look at the prospects for any ex-tropical storms or hurricanes to approach the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

"Wall of water"..."freezing temperatures"......."Gale force winds"........

 

OR, a 'Bank Holiday weekend' as we call it.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1326566/bbc-weather-carol-kirkwood-latest-forecast-storm-met-office-update-weather-warning

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed bag of weather for the month ahead.

_________________________________

Wednesday 9 September – Sunday 13 September

Wet at times in the north. Driest in the south.

The northern half of the UK will be wet and windy at times through the remainder of this week. The south will have the lengthiest periods of dry weather. Wednesday will see a band of cloud and patchy rain spreading south-eastwards. The patchy rain will give way to cooler but brighter weather in its wake. Much of the UK will see some sunshine developing through the afternoon. However, Scotland and northwest England will remain windy with a scattering of showers. On Thursday, after a chilly start in places, England and Wales will be largely dry with bright or sunny intervals.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will be mostly dry and bright at first. But, it will become cloudier and windier through the day with rain arriving in the west later as fronts approach from the Atlantic. On Friday and Saturday, the northern half of the UK will be cool and windy with showers or rain. Western Scotland has the potential for heavy and prolonged rain on Friday.
The southern half of the UK will have bright spells and only sporadic rainfall with temperatures mainly near average. By Sunday, high pressure should bring more extensive drier and sunnier weather over the UK. However, strong winds and rain may linger over parts of northern Scotland.

Monday 14 September – Sunday 20 September

Very warm for a time. Drier in the north.

Next week, there are signs of a brief return to summer for parts of the UK. A day or two of sunnier and much warmer weather is favoured early in the week as we import air from the Mediterranean. There is uncertainty over the northern extent of this warmth. However, parts of England and Wales could easily experience highs into the mid to locally high 20s Celsius for a time. From the middle part of next week, confidence in the forecast becomes much lower. This uncertainty is partly due to a conveyor belt of tropical storms or hurricanes that look like developing between western Africa and the Caribbean.

Weather models can struggle with how the remnants of these tropical features will interact with the weather nearer to the UK. Currently, we favour warmth to moderate but with high pressure remaining near to the UK. Therefore, any rain or showers should be interspersed by some lengthy periods of dry and settled weather. The north of the UK, in particular, looks like being generally drier compared to this week. However, there is a considerable risk that the high pressure area moves away more quickly than expected, which would bring a return to wetter and breezier conditions.

Monday 21 September – Sunday 4 October

Changeable conditions. Wet and cool at times.

Late September and the start of October are likely to see changeable weather conditions. Wet, breezy and cool conditions are likely to be interspersed by some drier and brighter days.
However, overall, late September is favoured to be wetter than average over the UK. Sustained periods of warm and dry weather currently appear unlikely. Into the start of October, there are signs that the low pressure track will push a bit further south.

Therefore, England and Wales look like still having episodes of wet, cool and windy weather. The best of the drier and brighter periods of weather by then are slightly favoured to be in Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, here we could start to see one or two night frosts under any clearer skies.  Confidence in the forecast details remains lower than usual. Weather models will continue to struggle to resolve the weather pattern over the UK and Europe at times, while an active Atlantic hurricane season continues.

Further ahead

We will be keeping an eye on the tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean. This tropical activity could have impacts on the jet stream and our weather forecast for the month ahead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather with long-range uncertainty

_________________________________

Saturday 12 September – Sunday 20 September

Briefly warm and dry, but rain likely later.

As a ridge of high pressure begins to build in eastern Europe this weekend, a couple of frontal waves will move across Scotland and Northern Ireland. This will bring some heavy rain for western Scotland along with strong winds at times. Further south though, it will be a mostly fine and dry weekend with some sunny spells and light winds.

By Monday, the high to the east will build enough to shift the winds for the UK to a southerly direction and push fronts off to the north. The result: a warm, dry, and mostly sunny couple of days. The warmth will likely peak on Tuesday in the south-east, with highs reaching into the upper-twenties. Although 30 Celsius is not completely out of the question, a lot of factors would all need to line up to get that warm.

As we start Wednesday, the high pressure to the east will begin to decline and shift away further east into Russia. This will cause us to lose our warm southerly winds and the temperatures will begin to moderate. At the same time, a cut-off low to our south-west will be able to drift slightly closer and will likely bring some rain later in the week to southern and south-western areas. By the following weekend, temperatures will have moderated to near-normal, but perhaps a touch cooler than normal for Scotland with north-east winds developing.

Monday 21 September – Sunday 27 September

Drier for most with rain at times in the south.

As we enter the last full week of September, we should see a large-scale pattern shift in the weather across northern Europe. High pressure is expected to build across the north of the continent, including the UK, which will keep things more settled and drier. However, temperatures will stay near or a bit below normal with an easterly or north-easterly breeze across the North Sea. Expect some cloudier conditions on eastern coasts at times too, especially in Scotland.

While we expect the high pressure to stick around throughout the week, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast since the UK is sat right on the edge of the high. Low pressure in France and Spain will occasionally bring some rain into southern areas during the week, but this will likely be more an exception than the rule. However, there is a risk that high pressure will be further east and low pressure could become more dominant.

The strong high is in part due to plenty of warm air from tropical storm Paulette, currently in the tropical Atlantic. This is contributing to the high degree of uncertainty in the forecast, so confidence is low for this week.

Monday 28 September – Sunday 11 October

Changeable weather, but often unsettled.

By the end of September and into October, the forecast becomes trickier. In recent weeks, the computer models have been unusually poor at this range. This is mainly due to the extremely active Atlantic hurricane season this year, as these storms are so large and powerful, they can have downstream effects on the weather pattern over Europe, thousands of miles away!

In general, we expect the high pressure from late September to gradually shift east and allow low pressure to become the more dominant feature into October. However, high pressure will often be lurking nearby in the Atlantic or central Europe, so the wettest and windier weather will tend to be in the northern half of the country. Occasional fronts will still bring some rain to everyone though, but southern areas will likely be a bit drier than normal.

The downside is that all this comes with the rather large caveat that if any tropical cyclones from the Atlantic influence our weather pattern, high pressure becomes more likely. So again, confidence is quite low at the moment, with a chance that a high pressure system could develop to the west or overhead and bring some drier weather. Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September and October, so we will likely continue to see storms well into mid-October.

Further ahead

As we continue to watch Atlantic hurricane activity, next week we will have a closer look into high pressure and drier weather for late September.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wettest and windiest in the north

_________________________________

Wednesday 16 September – Sunday 20 September

Largely dry and settled. Easterly wind in south

Extensive high pressure over central and eastern Europe, along with a slow moving area of low pressure to the west of Portugal have brought summery weather to England and Wales in recent days. We have seen temperatures close to 30C in south-eastern England. However, a change in location of high pressure is set to occur during the rest of this week, pulling in winds from a less warm north-easterly direction. We say goodbye to the impressive warmth of recent days, but there will still be a great deal of dry and settled weather across the country.
After the prolonged heavy rain over western Scotland last week, the second half of this week will see plenty of dry and calm weather.

Low pressure will deepen over France and Spain by Friday and Saturday, pushing some cloud and a few isolated showers northwards into southern England. This low pressure area will also strengthen easterly winds over the southern half of the UK, especially during the weekend. Temperatures will still reach the mid-20Cs over southern England on Wednesday.
But for the rest of the week, the maximum temperatures will be in the low 20Cs in the south and the high teens in the north.

Monday 21 September – Sunday 27 September

Westerly winds returning, with rain for all of us

As we enter the last full week of September, Monday 21st should be dry, calm and settled in many areas. High pressure over the UK and a low pressure area over France will slip away taking any showers with it. The brisk easterly breeze across southern England will have eased. A significant change to the weather pattern is expected by the middle of next week. An intensifying jet stream over the north Atlantic, fuelled by the remnants of Hurricane Sally, over the south-eastern USA, will sweep in a new round of low pressure areas.

This is similar to the weather pattern during late August and early September, when the westerlies were strong and sustained over northern parts of the UK. Once again, the wettest weather and strongest winds will affect the northern half of the UK, particularly Northern Ireland and Scotland. There is the possibility for a burst of gale force westerly winds here on Tuesday and Wednesday, although the detail will need to be refined as we get nearer the time. A dip in temperature is expected after mid-week as well, as winds flick around to the west and north-west, pushing the warmer air in the south away into France. While the south will see some rain or showers during the middle of the week, it does seem that by the weekend of September 26th and 27th, a ridge of high pressure will build in from the south and bring a return to drier, sunnier, calmer conditions.

Monday 28 September – Sunday 11 October

Changeable weather. Wettest and windiest in north

By the end of September and into October, the forecast becomes trickier. In recent weeks, the computer models have been unusually poor at this range. This is mainly due to the extremely active Atlantic hurricane season this year. As these storms are so large and powerful, they can have downstream effects on the weather pattern over Europe. The most likely weather pattern for much of the time will be for a conveyor belt of low pressure areas to track close to Scotland and then into Scandinavia. As a result, further drier than average conditions seem likely over southern parts of the UK, especially southern England and south Wales.

The north will have some drier interludes, as transient high pressure ridges move eastwards. But overall, we can expect some spells of rain and brisk westerly winds to also be in the mix. Temperatures will be variable. One thing that needs watching out for is the prospect of an ex-hurricane from the Atlantic tropics making its way towards the UK, as a potent autumn wind storm. Such systems can introduce severe gales and heavy rain, especially over northern and western parts of the UK. We saw this with ex-Hurricane Ophelia in October 2017, which brought very strong and damaging winds to parts of Ireland.

However, on the flip side, if the track of an ex-Hurricane remains well to the west or south-west of the UK, we will see a large area of high pressure building up over the UK for a week or so, perhaps even longer. The days can be warm and fine, but it can turn distinctly chilly overnight, with some localised air frost. This was a common occurrence in October 2016, which was a very dry and calm month across the country.

Further ahead

We will see if the recent rash of Atlantic Hurricane activity will continue into October and how this may shape the October weather pattern over the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A wet & windy late October. Cold snaps in November

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 October – Sunday 1 November

Very wet in the west. Windy, but turning milder

A barrage of Atlantic fronts and low pressure systems will continue to dictate our weather this week. As we predicted in the previous forecast update, Ex-Hurricane Epsilon has now formed a deep low pressure area over the north Atlantic. This produced a spell of wet and windy weather over all of the UK on Tuesday 27th, with extensive cloud cover throughout the day over central and eastern parts. On Wednesday, sustained fresh to strong westerly winds over the UK will push showers across, but there will be sunny spells between them. The heaviest and most frequent showers will be over southern and western coastal counties of England and the hills and mountains of Wales. Risk of hail and thunder in the heaviest ones.

A new set of Atlantic fronts will push north-east on Thursday and Friday, bringing copious rain to parts of the north and west, but allowing very mild air to extend across England and Wales from the south-west. Temperatures peaking at 18C (perhaps 19C) on Friday and Saturday in eastern and south-eastern England. The weekend will see further rain bands and brisk winds sweeping the country. There will be drier and brighter episodes between the rain bands, so it won't always be dull and wet.

Monday 2 November – Sunday 8 November

Drier and calmer conditions extending northwards

Monday 2nd November will start as the previous week left off, with low pressure and active fronts bringing windy and wet conditions to most of the UK. The remnants of Ex-Hurricane Zeta may be contained within Monday's low pressure area. Mild in the south and east of England. This low pressure will clear by Tuesday, leaving a colder wind from the north-west and a few showers racing across the country. Winds ease by mid-week as a big high pressure ridge moves in from the west. The threat of a frost on Tuesday and Wednesday night, so gardeners please take note!

The forecast trend for the second half of the week is that ridges of high pressure will quickly become influential across most of the UK. A much drier and calmer weather pattern is expected. Cool nights, but the days should still be rather mild, especially in the sunshine. Over Scotland, especially the northern and western half, a strong westerly jet stream over the North Atlantic will still be close enough to trigger some wet and windy weather. However, these conditions will be less intense than the previous couple of weeks and the chance of another ex-Hurricane moving close to Scotland is lower. Indeed, the southern half of Scotland will probably join England and Wales with some drier and more settled weather, and lighter winds at times.

Monday 9 November – Sunday 22 November

Cold northerly plunges more likely after mid-month

This autumn, we have a La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean, which means much cooler than average sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern Tropical Pacific. Despite the Pacific Ocean being thousands of miles away from the UK, unusual conditions here can have a broad influence on global weather patterns, including over Europe. A La Nina event tends to increase the chance of the UK getting some decent cold snaps before Christmas, as we saw in both 2016 and 2017, when we last had a La Nina pattern. However, other factors can also influence the UK's weather in late autumn, too. This can include wind patterns high above the North Pole and the sea surface temperatures over the north Atlantic.

The most likely outcome before mid-November is for high pressure to remain close to, or overhead the UK. This will mean further dry and calm conditions on many days, with some overnight frost at times where winds are light and skies clear. It won't be especially cold during the day though, as winds will still be coming from the relatively mild source of the north Atlantic. If low pressure areas do move in, they will be weaker than back in late October and the wind and rain will be less intense. A change is likely after mid-November, when colder air from the Arctic and showery weather should extend southwards more often. Some heavy showers at times, falling as sleet, hail and even snow, especially over the mountains in the north. Colder by day and sharper frosts by night, on some nights.

Further ahead

Next Update: We will be assessing the latest forecast models for second half of November, to see if the chance of cold weather and an early taste of winter has increased or decreased.
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A wet & windy late October. Cold snaps in November

_________________________________

Saturday 31 October – Sunday 8 November

A transition from wet & windy to drier & calmer.

A barrage of active Atlantic fronts and deep low pressure systems will continue to dictate our weather through this weekend and into Monday. The remnants of ex-Hurricane Zeta and the associated extra warmth and moisture from the tropical Atlantic will help to fuel the intensity of some of the low pressure systems, leading to copious heavy rainfall in the west and frequent strong winds.

Saturday will be a windy day for us all, with the prospect of gales over western areas, with gusts over 60mph in exposed areas, locally around 70mph along the west Wales coast and some of the hills and headlands of western Britain and Ireland. A broad band of heavy rain will sweep eastwards over all parts, but sunnier skies will come into south-western parts of the UK in the afternoon, leading to a drier interlude.

More wet and very windy weather on Sunday and Monday too, with the heaviest rainfall focused again over western parts, and strong winds from the south-west. Sunday night into Monday will see widespread wind gusts over 45mph, even inland over southern England.

A change to a colder and more showery weather pattern on Tuesday, with brisk winds from the north-west. But then a dramatic change to calmer, drier and sunnier weather from Wednesday and Thursday onwards, as high pressure builds. Cold nights with some local frost and dense fog patches, but milder and still quite sunny weather towards next weekend, as southerly winds freshen.

Monday 9 November – Monday 16 November

High pressure overhead. A quieter side to Autumn.

Extensive ridges of high pressure are expected to remain influential across most of the UK, with a continuation of a drier and calmer than average weather pattern for November, especially in the south.

The days are short and the nights are long in November, with the sun increasingly low in the sky, especially in the early to mid-mornings and again by mid-afternoon.

With a lack of mild air flowing across the UK from the Atlantic, it can get pretty chilly under the high pressure ridges, especially at night. Frost is likely where skies are clear for a few hours overnight. Patchy fog is likely to form too, some rather dense. The weather will be pleasant at times, with some late autumn sunshine breaking through. Other days, blankets of cloud will spread in from the North Sea and sit across the UK all day, leading to overcast and rather dull and dank conditions.

Over northern Scotland, a stronger westerly wind flow could still be close enough to bring in some fronts and windier and wetter weather.
However, these conditions will tend to fade with time, as high pressure extends further north and west during the second half of the week.

Tuesday 17 November – Sunday 29 November

A greater chance of some cold air from the north.

In some of our recent updates, we have been mentioning the prospect of some cold northerly plunges occurring as we head deeper into autumn. With a La Nina event ongoing in the Pacific (a vast area of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean), then the UK can often see an increase in the frequency of northerly winds in late autumn and early winter.

But the latest forecast computer models are very opposed with regards to how the second half of the month will play out and this reduces the confidence in the forecast. In this situation we have to look for trends in the individual models over their last few updates. We also have to bear mind how skilful they tend to be at predicting certain weather patterns correctly, based on their past performance.

Our preference remains for there to be more extensive high pressure than we have seen for a few weeks over the north Atlantic and up across Iceland and Greenland. This help to steer Atlantic low pressure systems southwards over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, while pulling down colder air from the Arctic towards the UK. This increases the likelihood for some frosty nights, cold day and the potential for wintry showers.

However, we also don't think that there will be a solid 2 weeks of cold weather either. We saw this during the second half of November 2010, which led into the remarkably cold and snowy December of that year.

This November, we think the cold weather will come down from the north in several pulses. Brief interludes of milder and quite unsettled weather are expected between them, but sustained periods of unusually mild weather seem unlikely.

Further ahead

The second half of November is still very uncertain, with some conflicting signals in today's guidance. The update next week will assess whether there are more definitive indications of how the late November patterns will evolve.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning warmer through mid-November. Risk of cold

_________________________________

Wednesday 4 November – Sunday 8 November

Change from chilly to milder. Eventually wetter

A weak trough could bring a few showers across during Wednesday on a chilly north-westerly breeze. Less cold across Scotland where slightly milder air will accompany some frontal rain. High pressure starting to edge in from the west will then intensify and drift east across the UK through Thursday and Friday. This will mean some rather cold nights and mornings, and with rather calm conditions. There will likely be local frost and patches of thick fog. Aside from any lingering fog there will be generally sunnier conditions.

As high pressure drifts farther east it will bring some southeast flows. So it will still be cool Friday and Saturday, especially in the east where there could be some low cloud and mist. However, much milder air will then come in from the south, starting Saturday, as winds move more southerly. Sunday will become warm for the time of year, but with some bands of rain moving northwards across England and Wales along with a freshening of the wind. There will not be a repeat of the recent thoroughly wet and windy weather. Scotland will most likely be largely dry through the weekend although will take a longer to warm up.

Monday 9 November – Sunday 15 November

High pressure to the east. Becoming warmer & drier

The first half of next week will see a similar pattern, with warm with southerly flows pushing temperatures a few degrees above the early-November average. But further bands of rain moving across the country on frontal systems from the south and southwest. High pressure will persist to the east, and this looks likely to strengthen and build back westwards towards the UK. This will push those rain-bearing systems farther out into the Atlantic and delivering mostly dry conditions across the country by the end of the week.

Although, there will remain a chance of a little rain at times in northern and western regions. There is about a 20 per cent risk that the high will be less strong and positioned farther northeast across Scandinavia. This will allow Atlantic low pressure systems to creep closer to the UK and bring a greater chance of rain and stronger winds across northern and western regions. Under these circumstances it would also be a bit cooler but not significantly so, with temperatures still above normal for November.

Monday 16 November – Sunday 29 November

Warmth lingering then a chance of colder air later

Longer range models differ somewhat for the second half of November, but the most likely scenario is for warmer and drier than average conditions to continue across most of the UK. Occasional rain cannot be ruled, especially for the north and west. A change looks like coming later in the month as the high pressure system weakens and re-establishes westwards as a ridge over the Atlantic by the end of the month, inducing chilly flows from the north.

With a La Niña event developing in the Pacific, the UK can be more susceptible to northerly winds in late autumn and early winter. This might be aided by a weaker Polar Vortex, but it does not look like weakening sufficiently for any major cold outbreaks to be a concern. Confidence in the forecast is low given model contradictions but these climate drivers can help to steer us towards these possible colder outbreaks late month. Although they would be not be expected to be long-lasting.

With high pressure over the North Atlantic, low pressure systems should be steered southwards over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, pulling down pulses of colder towards the UK. This increases the likelihood for some frosty nights, cold days and the potential for wintry showers but brief milder, wet and windy spells in between. There are a couple of possible alternate scenarios. One is that the Polar Vortex remains strong and induces more of a westerly regime with low pressure systems bringing occasionally wet and windy but mild weather across the UK. This is about a 30 per cent chance. On the other hand, there is a very small risk, no more than 10 per cent, of high pressure building over Scandinavia and bringing much colder easterly winds.

Further ahead

With the second half of November still under a cloud of uncertainty, it will be interesting to see if the model disagreements resolve and allow for more confidence in late-month colder outbreaks, or if the opposite starts to look more possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild & drier for a time. A stormy late November.

_________________________________

Saturday 7 November – Sunday 15 November

Turning very mild. Dry in south and east.

After another chilly night, with some localised frost and patchy dense fog to start the day, Saturday 7th November will be dry for many parts of the UK, with high pressure leading to further sunshine. Cloud becoming more extensive across Wales as well as the southern and western half of England as the day progresses. There will be showery bursts of rain edging northwards into Devon, Cornwall and south Wales. Very mild in southern England and west Wales, with temperatures reaching 15C or 16C here.

During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, further bands of cloud and showery rain will spread northwards and a bit further eastwards across the UK. Some locally heavy pulses at times and the low risk of a crack of thunder. This is most likely over south-west England. Lowest rainfall amounts and best chance of sunny spells will be over eastern and north-eastern areas of the UK. Very mild by day and night, with maximum temperatures reaching 17C, perhaps 18C.

During the middle and end of this week, a similar weather pattern will dominate, with a huge area of high pressure over continental Europe. This will prevent Atlantic fronts from pushing eastwards across the UK. Instead, they will stall over western areas, with western and south-western Scotland predicted to see the highest totals. Brisk winds on a few days, more especially over Scotland. Much drier and less windy over central and eastern England. Mild, with winds from the south and south-west.

Monday 16 November – Sunday 22 November

Mild conditions continuing. Wettest in north-west.

The most likely outcome during this week is for a huge area of high pressure to remain situated across much of continental Europe. The UK will once again be located on the milder western side of this high pressure ridge. Atlantic fronts running into western and northern fringes of the UK before stalling. Milder than average conditions will continue, with the risk of frost quite low, even in Scotland. A distinct north-west to south-east split in rainfall totals and wind speeds.

We will see the south and east again experiencing less rainfall and wind than would typically occur in mid-November. The reverse is likely to be the case over western Scotland. However, during the first half of the week, there is a slight chance that high pressure extends its influence further west, leading to a calmer & drier period of weather, even over west Wales and western Scotland. Winds would turn south-easterly over southern and eastern parts of England, drawing in drier air from the near continent. While this drier air would lead to more sunshine and less cloud cover by day, overnight temperatures would fall sharply, with some frost expected.


Towards the end of this week, there is more of a risk that high pressure declines quite quickly over the near continent and low pressure areas start to intensify over the north Atlantic and near Scotland. Westerly winds strengthening widely over the UK, with periods of heavy rain making their presence felt across all parts. Such a scenario is more likely during the final week in November, than during the latter half of this week.

Monday 23 November – Sunday 6 December

Widely wetter and windier. Short cold plunges.

In some of our recent updates, we have been mentioning the prospect of some cold northerly plunges occurring as we get to late November. With a La Nina event ongoing in the Pacific (a vast area of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean), then the UK can sometimes see an increase in the frequency of cold northerly winds during November.

However, unusual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature patterns are not the only influence on the UK's weather in late autumn. In some previous years, an entrenched La Nina pattern fails to coincide with any sustained pre-Christmas cold weather over the UK. 2020 could be another of these years. This two week period should see a return to brisk westerly winds and fast moving frontal systems racing across the UK, with short-lived periods of drier, brighter and sunnier weather between them. Wettest over western areas, especially western Scotland.

Some very strong winds are possible on a few days, perhaps leading to some disruption. We saw such events during December 2011, 2013 and 1999, all of which featured a La Nina event over the Pacific. Although it will often be quite mild, there's good evidence that the low pressure track will sometimes plunge south of the UK, across France and the Alps. This will introduce north-westerly winds for a couple of days, leading to colder weather. There will be night frosts and scattered sleet, hail and even a few snow showers. These cold spells should be fairly short-lived, with most snow only settling over the hills and mountains in the north. Milder west or south-westerly winds will be more frequent.

Further ahead

We will look in more detail at the second half of November and start of December and assess the risk of there being some widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall during this time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

It seems that according to the Express Netweather charts show a bitter Icelandic snow storm is about to strike us- backed up by Netweather forecast.....

1358593.jpg
WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

BRITAIN is on course for a bitterly cold snap as an Icelandic snow system heads towards the UK, according to the latest...

 

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