Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

[Turnedoutniceagain]

"UK to be SMASHED by lightning"

 

UK weather forecast: Lightning and rain to SMASH Britain ‘bringing an end’ to 34C heatwave | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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TEMPERATURES look set to soar to highs of near-34C this week, but forecasters warn some parts of the UK could be hit by thunderstorms and heavy showers which...

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A showery and cool start to July, then warmer

_________________________________

Saturday 27 June – Sunday 5 July

Fresher than recently with blustery showers

This weekend will be noticeably cooler than recent days with fresh to strong westerly winds. Temperatures will be up to 10 degrees Celsius lower than recently. Much of the UK will see a mixture of sunny intervals and blustery showers through the weekend. The north and west, in particular, will see more prolonged rainfall at times. Some locations in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Cumbria are likely to see well over 50mm of rain. Some spots here could see close to a month's worth of rainfall within the weekend.

Next week, the cool and unsettled theme to the weather continues. Monday will see further showers or longer spells of rain, heaviest in the north of the UK. It will feel rather chilly with brisk westerly winds and temperatures staying a little below the seasonal average. However, Tuesday is likely to be less wet and less windy with showers easing. Temperatures are expected to be nearer the seasonal average by then.

Through much of the rest of next week, low pressure areas sweeping in from the Atlantic will keep the weather unsettled. There are likely to be further showers and bands of rain with temperatures near or a little below average. There will be some drier and sunnier interludes albeit rather short-lived.

However, by the very end of the week we may start to see somewhat calmer and drier weather.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 12 July

Turning drier, calmer and warmer again

After a wet and breezy start to July, the weather looks like turning drier and calmer again for some. Over England and Wales, a high pressure ridge is likely to extend from the south-west. Therefore, England and Wales have the highest chance of seeing a return to drier, calmer and warmer weather in the first half of July.

Scotland and Northern Ireland could still be influenced by low pressure areas at times. Therefore, a variable week of weather is more likely for Scotland and Northern Ireland with rain at times but also some drier and sunnier interludes. Overall, much of the UK should be less wet and less breezy than the preceding week.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 26 July

Warm and dry at first, showery later.

Mid-July is currently shaping up to be often dry and relatively calm with temperatures above average. Current indications are that high pressure will move further north across the UK. Therefore, dry, calm and warm weather should extend from England and Wales into Scotland and Northern Ireland as well. Strong sunshine can still be expected at times with high UV levels.

However, after mid-month, there are signs that high pressure will weaken. Therefore, we can expect an increase in the number of showery or even thundery days. It should still be warm or very warm at times, though, with a lack of cooling westerly or northerly winds.

Confidence in the forecast becomes low after mid-month. There are chances that high pressure stays nearer to the British Isles after mid-month. If high pressure does persist, it would end up staying much drier for many.

Further ahead

The weather currently looks changeable through the coming weeks. We will take another look to see if we can still expect a return of warmer weather through July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet, windy and cool in the north at times

_________________________________

Wednesday 1 July – Sunday 5 July

Fresh and windy, with low pressure always nearby

The month will start with a shallow area of low pressure overhead, and several fronts in the vicinity. Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly cloudy and fresh, with patchy light rain across Northern Ireland and Scotland, and showers across many parts of Wales and England. On Thursday night, a front will push in from the Atlantic and into Northern Ireland, bringing brisk winds and rather persistent rain here into Friday morning. Friday will be a wet day for many as the front tracks eastwards into Scotland and gradually into northern England and Wales later in the day. The exception will likely be for southeast England, where the front is unlikely to reach until Friday night, by which point the rain will become increasingly patchy. It will remain fresh and windy over the weekend.

Friday's front will linger over England and Wales on Saturday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and patches of light rain. On Sunday, an another area of low pressure will deepen as it heads in from the Atlantic and towards the northwest of the UK. Strong winds can be expected almost everywhere, but particularly for northern Scotland. There will be rain too, being more persistent and widespread for Northern Ireland and Scotland, whilst southeast England may avoid the rain entirely.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 12 July

Cool then wet and windy in the north from mid-week

The deep area of low pressure that will affect the UK over the preceding weekend will move away into Scandinavia on Sunday night. This will allow a northerly flow to develop over the UK for the first few days of the week. With cooler air feeding in from the north, it will turn fairly cool for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a scattering of light showers blowing in from the north, too. From mid-week onwards, a few low pressures are expected to track in once more from the Atlantic, bringing some rain and breezy conditions to the UK at times through the remainder of the week.

However, these unsettled periods may be largely confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst southern parts of England and Wales may stay mainly dry. This is because high pressure over western Europe is expected to extend into the south of the UK, forcing fronts in the north to weaken as they nudge in from the northwest. As a result, the wettest and windiest weather is likely to be across northern areas from mid-week through to the weekend, whilst Southeast England should see some dry and calm days.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 26 July

A north-south split; then drier and warmer later

A continuation of the previous week is expected as we head into the middle of the month, with a possible north-south split in the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to track close to or just to the north of Scotland, and so wet and windy spells look likely across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, high pressure should still be holding some influence over the southern half of the UK. This should largely keep fronts at bay, hence allowing for mainly dry and calm conditions across southern England and Wales. The south is also where there is the greatest chance of temperatures trending slightly above the seasonal normal. Meanwhile, in Scotland, temperatures are generally expected to be close to, or just below the seasonal norm, with banks of cloud impeding the Sun's warmth.

Deeper in July, a pattern change is expected. High pressure should build across the UK by the week of Monday 20th, and this should bring drier, calmer and warmer conditions more extensively, including to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For those looking for another heatwave, the latter part of the month has the greater chance of seeing one. Climatologically, late-July is indeed a favourable time for hot weather in the UK. In July 2019, after a few fairly mundane weeks of weather with temperatures mainly peaking in the low 20s Celsius, late-July entertained record-breaking heat. The UK's highest temperature ever recorded was set at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25th July 2019, with 38.7C. Though there are no tangible signs of any hot periods in July 2020 yet, late-July may be a reasonable candidate for one.

Further ahead

We will take closer look at the potential for widespread dry and hot weather in late-July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Turnedoutniceagain]

"A sizzling heatwave"

 

UK heatwave: UK to see SIZZLING 29C heat as hot weather sweeps Europe - latest maps | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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HEATWAVE conditions in June brought heat above 30C for many regions of the UK. Now, according to the latest weather maps, the hot weather could make...

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through much of July

_________________________________

Saturday 4 July – Sunday 12 July

Unseasonably strong winds, then rather cool

This weekend will feel more autumnal than summer-like, with dull and cloudy skies, and several fronts bringing outbreaks of rain and showers to much of the country. The jet stream will sit right overhead, and the jet will be responsible for the development of a deep area of low pressure, which will approach the north of the UK on Saturday night and track across northern Scotland through Sunday. This will bring unseasonably strong winds to much of the country, particularly across Scotland and northern England. With tree in full-leaf, fallen branches and damaged trees may cause some localised travel and power disruption.

The deep area of low pressure will move away to the northeast into Scandinavia on Monday. This will allow for a northwesterly flow to air to drive across the UK, introducing cooler air for Monday and Tuesday. There will also be showers blowing in from the north on Monday, but Tuesday should be a drier and sunnier day, with just a scattering of showers for the northern half of the UK. From Tuesday night onwards through the rest of week, there is a constant threat of low pressures moving in from the Atlantic. This seems most likely on Wednesday, when fronts will give rain and brisk winds, mainly to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

This should move through quickly though, allowing for a day or two of drier, calmer weather, around Thursday. The next low pressure area will threaten from the west later in the week, likely giving another unsettled spell of weather, mainly to Northern Ireland and Scotland once again. South and southeast England may avoid much of the rain, and it should turn slightly warmer here compared to further north.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 19 July

Alternating dry periods and wet, breezy spells

A continuation of the preceding week is expected as we head into the middle of the month, with a possible north-south split in the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to track close to or just to the north of Scotland, and so wet and windy spells look likely across the north of the UK. However, interludes of high pressure are expected in between the low pressures, bringing some drier, calmer days too.

High pressure will likely hold greater influence over the southern half of the UK, and this should largely keep fronts at bay, hence allowing for more dry, calm days across England and Wales. The south is also where there is the greatest chance of temperatures trending slightly above the seasonal normal. Meanwhile, in Scotland, temperatures are generally expected to be close to, or just below the seasonal norm, with banks of cloud and rain often impeding the Sun's warmth.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, but turning dry and warm into August

The changeable weather expected through early and mid July is forecast to persist into the fourth week of the month. This means there will likely be alternating spells of wet and breezy weather, interspersed with some dry, calm days. With low pressures mainly tracking near the north of the UK, Northern Ireland and Scotland will likely be wetter and windier than southern areas. Towards the end of July, a pattern change is expected. High pressure should build across the UK around the turn of the month, and this should bring drier, calmer and warmer conditions more extensively, including to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For those looking for another heatwave, the late-July into early-August has the greater chance of seeing one. Climatologically, late-July is indeed a favourable time for hot weather in the UK. In July 2019, after a few fairly mundane weeks of weather with temperatures mainly peaking in the low 20s Celsius, late-July entertained record-breaking heat. The UK's highest temperature ever recorded was set at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25th July 2019, with 38.7C. Though there are no tangible signs of any hot periods yet, late July or early August may be a reasonable candidate for one.

Further ahead

We will take the forecast into the final month of summer, and take a closer look at the potential for widespread dry and hot weather in late-July or early-August.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Turnedoutniceagain]

"We're all going to die....etc etc"

UK hot weather map: 30C highs to return after torrential rain soaks Britain | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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STRONG WINDS and heavy rain will dominate the forecast this week, before scorching highs of 30C return to the UK. Here is the latest forecast.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Surely it's not long now until the first 'Apocalyptic Winter' article from the Daily Express? Getting that time of year

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather for July with a few dry spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 8 July – Sunday 12 July

Wet in the south, drier in the north. Cool

The rest of this week will see a north-south split in the weather across the UK. Low pressure tracks will drift across southern areas and keep Wales and the southern half of England grey and wet through Friday. Lows will tend to be on the weaker side though, so it should not be too windy, and rain is not expected to be particularly heavy. Thursday and into Friday the weak low crossing the country will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard.

While the system in over England on Thursday it will be quite weak but bring plenty of rain to the Midlands and southern England. However, once it moves offshore into the North Sea on Friday it will pick up steam and bring some heavier showers and stronger winds for Friday afternoon to eastern England. At the same time southern areas are seeing a dull, wet end to the working week, northern areas will see sunny spells, light winds, and scattered afternoon showers developing over hilly areas.

On Friday as the remnants of Edouard move away, afternoon showers will likely turn heavy and thundery for some areas in northern England and Scotland. Across the UK this week, temperatures will be cooler than normal for July with a more polar airmass overhead. As we head into the weekend high pressure will build in from the southwest and dry things out for most. This will bring in a warmer, more tropical airmass as well, so temperatures will begin to recover. North-western and northern Scotland is the main exception here as a wetter weekend is expected due to a weak front.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 19 July

Alternating dry periods and wet, breezy spells

High pressure that builds into the UK over this coming weekend will persist through much of next week, keeping things dry and fine for much of the country. Temperatures will continue to recover from the cool spell this week and likely tend to be above average for the southern half of the country. A few weak fronts will flirt with the extreme northern fringes of Scotland at times, so it will be a bit cloudier and wetter here, but the vast majority of the UK will have a mostly sunny and dry week.

There is a risk that around midweek we could see some heat reach into the southern parts of England, especially the southeast. However, this is still only a risk at the moment and while we expect some warmer than normal weather, we do not expect a heatwave. Heading into the weekend high pressure will likely begin to break down and shift east, allowing some low pressure systems to reach into the UK from the northwest. Temperatures will begin to return to near normal, and perhaps become a bit cool for Scotland, while things turn wetter in northern and western areas. However, confidence is a bit lower than usual for the medium range as some tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are leading to some higher volatility in the computer models.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, but turning dry and warm into August

Confidence has dropped a bit for the forecast for late July as the long range computer models are struggling to handle the increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Overall, the pattern should see high pressure to the south and extending into Central Europe with low pressure tracks to the north of the UK and into Scandinavia. We expect some alternating wet and dry spells, but northern areas will tend to be more consistently wet and cloudy.

With high pressure nearby to the south, ridges will move in between fronts and provide a few dry and more settled days before the next front arrives. Southern areas will likely stay mostly dry with fronts off to the north. This will also bring in a warmer southerly flow to much of the UK, so temperatures are likely to be near or above normal for the warmest air in the south. Scotland, however, will likely be near or a bit below average with fronts more frequently bringing in cooler northwest winds.

As we head into late July and early August, we expect low pressure tracks will dip a bit further south while high pressure remains nearby to the south. This will be a windier patter most, and a wetter pattern for northern and eastern areas. Temperatures will tend to be near normal overall, but with a lot of variability day-to-day. Some records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation this year in the Atlantic, and these weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long range computer models.
The main risk to this forecast is that high pressure is more influential through late July, bringing some warmer and drier weather more consistently.

Further ahead

We will keep an eye on the tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and see if we can trust the computer models more next time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through July

_________________________________

Saturday 11 July – Sunday 19 July

A drier, finer weekend, but fronts threaten later

After a series of unsettled weekends over the past month, high pressure will finally give a few drier, finer days this weekend. Much of the UK should see some decent sunny spells, with just some fair weather cloud bubbling up through the day. However, Northern Ireland and Scotland will often be cloudier this weekend, with a front moving in from the west on Sunday.
This will bring some rain, mostly light, to Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland later on Sunday, before giving patchy rain to the rest of Scotland on Sunday night. This front will then progress southeastwards through Monday, introducing cloudier skies and some outbreaks of rain across the UK as it does so, though not reaching southern England until Monday evening or overnight, by which point the front will have just some patchy light rain on it.

Tuesday will then be a cloudy day across the board, with more frontal rain moving in from the northwest into Northern Ireland and Scotland. Beyond Tuesday, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast. Most likely is that there is a marked north-south split in the weather through the rest of the week and into next weekend. High pressure will often be overhead or nearby to the south, whilst low pressure will often be to the north of Scotland. This will bring some rain and breezy conditions to Scotland and Northern Ireland at times, whilst England and Wales should stay largely dry and settled. Meanwhile, with the high pressure over the south, there is a chance of a few warmer, sunnier days later in the week.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 26 July

Wet and breezy at times, mainly in the north

Heading deeper into July, a north-south split in the weather looks possible. In the north, it is likely that fronts will edge in from the Atlantic at times, bringing intermittent spells of wet and breezy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland. With cooler northwesterly winds following on behind the fronts, temperatures in Scotland will likely trend close to, or a little below, the seasonal average.

Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to be to the south of the British Isles through this period, and this should extend northwards into the south of the UK. As a result, southern and central parts of England and Wales should see many dry, settled days, and with temperatures close to, or slightly above, average. However, there is a risk of deeper low pressure systems tracking close to the UK, to give a more widespread wet and windy week across the board. This alternative scenario is partly dependent on the developments of tropical storms in the western Atlantic, which may help to bring low pressure systems towards the UK.

Monday 27 July – Sunday 9 August

Changeable, with alternating dry and wet spells

As we head into late July and early August, we expect low pressure tracks to dip a bit further south, whilst high pressure remains to the south of us. With the threat of low pressure systems, this period may well turn out cooler, wetter and windier than average for the time of year. Temperatures will tend to be near normal overall, but with a lot of variability day-to-day.
However, confidence in the forecast is rather low.

Records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this year, and these weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long range computer models. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure becomes more influential into August, bringing some warmer and drier weather more consistently.

Further ahead

We will take the forecast further into the final month of summer, and see if there are any signs of a prolonged period of dry, warm and sunny weather. Will August see the hottest temperature of the year?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Edited July 11, 2020 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

Well, after yesterday's forecast of 'sunny intervals and light rain showers', in reality produced no-less than two thunderstorms (so, spectacularly wrong, in only 12 hours!) I'll no' be taking the Beeb's LRFs all that seriously, from now on!

Not that I take anyone's LRFs seriously, anywho!

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through July and into August

_________________________________

Wednesday 15 July – Sunday 19 July

A north-south split with wet weather for Scotland

For the rest of the working week and into the start of the coming weekend the UK will see a bit of a north-south split in the weather. This is due to a ridge of high pressure that is building in from the southwest, bringing some drier and brighter weather to southern areas. However, a stronger-than-normal low pressure system for July will track near Iceland and bring some outbreaks of rain to northern areas. This will mainly impact Scotland and Northern Ireland.

As the ridge builds in on Wednesday and Thursday, a weak warm front will be pushed through Scotland and bring some bands of rain to northern areas and perhaps into the Midlands as well. Rain will tend to be light and patchy though. By Thursday night and into Friday, a cold front will stall over northern Scotland and just to the north of Northern Ireland, bringing some heavy rain for a time. Southern areas will stay dry and see some decent clear spells and some slightly warmer than normal air.

Into the weekend, high pressure will decline and retreat into the Atlantic, allowing the cold front to drift southeast into England and Wales. However, at this point, the front will tend to be a weak feature. Some patches of light rain are likely, but many areas will stay dry despite the front moving through on Saturday. Southeast England will likely have a mostly dry, warm day on Saturday with the front not arriving until the evening or overnight. Cooler northwest winds will follow behind for northern areas, bringing some scattered showers to the west.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 26 July

Northern areas more frequently wet, windy

As we head into late July, the north-south split for the weather will become much more of a persistent feature in the pattern. In the north, we expect fronts will edge in from the Atlantic at times, bringing intermittent but frequent spells of wet and breezy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland. With cooler northwest winds following on behind the fronts, temperatures in Scotland will likely trend a little below normal. Any dry spells between fronts will be fleeting.

Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to be to the south of the British Isles and into Central Europe during this week. As a result, southern and central parts of England and Wales should see many dry, settled days with temperatures close to, or slightly above, average. Fronts will move through occasionally, but rain is not expected to be frequent or particularly heavy. The best of the dry and bright weather will be in southeast England, where the week may be mostly dry.

The main risk to the forecast is that the high pressure to the south will tend to be stronger and more overhead throughout the week. This will mean the weather is much drier and calmer, even as far north as Scotland. This will also bring in some warmer than normal weather - but there are not any strong signals for heatwaves.

Monday 27 July – Sunday 9 August

Changeable, with alternating dry and wet spells

For late July and the first few weeks in August, we expect low pressure tracks from the North Atlantic will tend to continue to move into the UK. The main change we expect to see is a gradual reduction in the impacts from nearby high pressure. The result is that lows will move overhead more often, and even southern areas will tend to see more frequently wet and windy weather. There will still be some dry spells, especially in late-July and very early-August, and these will be longer lived in southern areas, but as a whole the country will see more unsettled weather.

However, confidence in the forecast is rather low, more so than normal for this range. Records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this year and a very active hurricane season is forecast. These weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long-range computer models, which struggle to see them coming more than a fortnight ahead. We expect that the model skill in forecasting the weather at the three and four week range is likely to be poor at the moment.

The main risk, similar to early weeks, is that high pressure becomes more influential into August, bringing some warmer and drier weather more consistently, along with a risk of heat for southern areas.

Further ahead

Next update: We will hopefully see some better signals for the weather story into early August from the models, but will another Atlantic tropical cyclone throw a spanner in the works?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[EMids WeatherWatcher]

Summers could become 'too hot for humans'

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Rising global temperatures could see summers that are too hot to work in.

I know a country where that wouldn't apply...any guesses?

Edited July 16, 2020 by EMids WeatherWatcher

[seaside 60]

Really the Express should be retired.
After getting daily its going to be 40c heatwaves and we are going to die updates on google news on my phone.

This morning I got the first ever that I can remember 40 days of rain.

Surely even for click bait no one clicks through.

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through July and into August

_________________________________

Saturday 18 July – Sunday 26 July

Some cooler days, before turning unsettled again

This weekend, a cold front will slowly track south-eastwards across the country. On Saturday morning, the cold front will be across Wales and northern England, bringing patchy rain here.
To the south of the front, Southeast England should remain dry and sunny, but it with cloud building later in the day. To the north of the front, Northern Ireland and Scotland will have a cooler day with some sunny spells, but also with scattered showers moving in from the west. The cold front will continue to track south-eastwards into Sunday, pushing into southeast England by Sunday morning and giving rain here. With a cooler northwesterly flow behind the front, the first part of the coming week will see temperatures slightly below normal for the time of year, despite there being sunny spells for many.

There will be some scattered showers too, but mainly across north and west Scotland. For Wednesday and Thursday next week, there will likely be a north-south split in the weather. In the north - especially Scotland - there will be some rain and breezy conditions, perhaps with some heavy bursts of rain in northwest Scotland. Meanwhile, the south should stay dry through Wednesday and Thursday, and temperatures will return to around normal, under some sunny spells between areas of cloud. On Friday and into next weekend, there is a reasonable chance of an area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic, to give wet and breezy weather widely across the UK. There is good support for this unsettled scenario, but there is still a slight chance that high pressure ridges I to keep it drier, calmer, warmer in the south.

Monday 27 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, with low pressures tracking nearby

No major pattern changes are expected as we head through the end of July and into August, with the changeable weather continuing. Low pressures systems are expected to track close to the north of the British Isles, bringing wet and windy weather to the north at times, but all parts of the UK will likely have some wet and breezy weather during this week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal, but with some sub-weekly variability as low pressure systems come and go.

However, high pressure should remain nearby to the southwest of the British Isles, and there is a chance that this high pressure extends into the UK to give some drier, finer weather. If it does, it is unlikely to hang around for too long, so it looks like any warm and sunny weather will only last a few days at best. With the UK being on the boundary of high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the north, confidence in the forecast is fairly low around this time. One weather type may take greater dominance over the weather type, to give very different feel to the week overall. However, a changeable pattern seems most likely.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 16 August

A north-south split, with wet spells in the north

The battle between two weather types will continue through early August: low pressure systems are expected to track near to the north of the UK, whilst high pressure will often be close to the south of the UK. Scotland will likely see wet and breezy conditions at times, particularly for the northwest of the country. Meanwhile, high pressure should keep it drier and warmer further to the southeast. However, confidence in the forecast is rather low - more so than normal for this range. Records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this year and a very active hurricane season is forecast.

These weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long range computer models, which struggle to see them coming more than a fortnight ahead. The main risk, similar to preceding weeks, is that high pressure becomes more influential into mid-August, bringing some warmer and drier conditions more consistently, along with a potential for some brief hot spells of weather in the south.

Further ahead

We will hopefully see some better signals for the weather story into early August from the models, but will another Atlantic tropical cyclone throw a spanner in the works?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Turnedoutniceagain]

"Temperatures will skyrocket......"

UK weather forecast: Summer heatwave returns as temperatures skyrocket | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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WET and cold weather will come to an end as Monday brings back scorching temperatures into the mid twenties.

 

[seaside 60]

NO no no,

what happened to the friday 40 days of rain. 

[mushymanrob]

On 08/07/2020 at 15:05, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather for July with a few dry spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 8 July – Sunday 12 July

Wet in the south, drier in the north. Cool

The rest of this week will see a north-south split in the weather across the UK. Low pressure tracks will drift across southern areas and keep Wales and the southern half of England grey and wet through Friday. Lows will tend to be on the weaker side though, so it should not be too windy, and rain is not expected to be particularly heavy. Thursday and into Friday the weak low crossing the country will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard.

While the system in over England on Thursday it will be quite weak but bring plenty of rain to the Midlands and southern England. However, once it moves offshore into the North Sea on Friday it will pick up steam and bring some heavier showers and stronger winds for Friday afternoon to eastern England. At the same time southern areas are seeing a dull, wet end to the working week, northern areas will see sunny spells, light winds, and scattered afternoon showers developing over hilly areas.

On Friday as the remnants of Edouard move away, afternoon showers will likely turn heavy and thundery for some areas in northern England and Scotland. Across the UK this week, temperatures will be cooler than normal for July with a more polar airmass overhead. As we head into the weekend high pressure will build in from the southwest and dry things out for most. This will bring in a warmer, more tropical airmass as well, so temperatures will begin to recover. North-western and northern Scotland is the main exception here as a wetter weekend is expected due to a weak front.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 19 July

Alternating dry periods and wet, breezy spells

High pressure that builds into the UK over this coming weekend will persist through much of next week, keeping things dry and fine for much of the country. Temperatures will continue to recover from the cool spell this week and likely tend to be above average for the southern half of the country. A few weak fronts will flirt with the extreme northern fringes of Scotland at times, so it will be a bit cloudier and wetter here, but the vast majority of the UK will have a mostly sunny and dry week.

There is a risk that around midweek we could see some heat reach into the southern parts of England, especially the southeast. However, this is still only a risk at the moment and while we expect some warmer than normal weather, we do not expect a heatwave. Heading into the weekend high pressure will likely begin to break down and shift east, allowing some low pressure systems to reach into the UK from the northwest. Temperatures will begin to return to near normal, and perhaps become a bit cool for Scotland, while things turn wetter in northern and western areas. However, confidence is a bit lower than usual for the medium range as some tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are leading to some higher volatility in the computer models.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, but turning dry and warm into August

Confidence has dropped a bit for the forecast for late July as the long range computer models are struggling to handle the increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Overall, the pattern should see high pressure to the south and extending into Central Europe with low pressure tracks to the north of the UK and into Scandinavia. We expect some alternating wet and dry spells, but northern areas will tend to be more consistently wet and cloudy.

With high pressure nearby to the south, ridges will move in between fronts and provide a few dry and more settled days before the next front arrives. Southern areas will likely stay mostly dry with fronts off to the north. This will also bring in a warmer southerly flow to much of the UK, so temperatures are likely to be near or above normal for the warmest air in the south. Scotland, however, will likely be near or a bit below average with fronts more frequently bringing in cooler northwest winds.

As we head into late July and early August, we expect low pressure tracks will dip a bit further south while high pressure remains nearby to the south. This will be a windier patter most, and a wetter pattern for northern and eastern areas. Temperatures will tend to be near normal overall, but with a lot of variability day-to-day. Some records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation this year in the Atlantic, and these weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long range computer models.
The main risk to this forecast is that high pressure is more influential through late July, bringing some warmer and drier weather more consistently.

Further ahead

We will keep an eye on the tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and see if we can trust the computer models more next time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Well this doesnt look like itll be accurate..

[Turnedoutniceagain]

"London will melt....etc"

 

UK weather forecast: Summer heatwave to melt Britain as scorcher hits London | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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BRITAIN is set to bask in the sun this week as a scorching one-day heatwave hits London.

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Remaining changeable heading into August

_________________________________

Wednesday 22 July – Wednesday 26 August

An unsettled end to the week

This week so far has been fairly dry and sunny across the south of the UK with temperatures getting into the low to mid-twenties Celsius in the warmest areas. Meanwhile, the northern half of the country has seen some showers and rain, and it this wetter weather will become more of a feature across the whole of the country during the second half of this week. Wednesday will see a low pressure system moving across the north of the country. This low will bring outbreaks of rain to many areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland with some more persistent rain possible over the West Highlands.

Some outbreaks of rain are also likely over northern England and parts of north Wales. Meanwhile, the Midlands, south Wales and southern England should escape with another dry and bright day with some nice sunny spells. Thursday will see showers and rain affecting many areas of the country as a cold front pushes southwards. A brief spell of calmer, drier weather looks likely to most on Friday, but the weekend promises another Atlantic low and another spell of wet and very breezy, locally windy weather. With regard to temperatures, it has been a little cooler than normal for the time of year this week and we've had some cool nights. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal over the second part of the week, perhaps remaining a little cooler than normal.

Thursday 27 August – Sunday 2 August

Changeable but with big regional differences

The weather looks fairly unsettled through most of next week as low pressure systems track close to or over the UK at times. However, high pressure lying over mainland Europe is likely to extend a little further north at times. As a result, we can probably expect similar conditions to that expected in the second half of this week i.e. some wet weather but interspersed with some drier and sunny spells interludes too. One of the main patterns we see is that there could be a notable split in the weather across the UK.

The north and west look likely to be wetter and windier than average for the time of year. Meanwhile, the south and east are more likely to see rainfall near normal with lighter winds. The south and east are also likely to see the best of any sunny weather and as a result should see temperatures nearest to normal, and perhaps a little above normal at times if we get any continental air feeding in from the south. The north and west will probably be a bit cooler than normal. Whilst the above doesn't look too much like summer weather, there is a chance that we'll see high pressure expanding further northwards across the UK than expected. If that happens then more of the country will see drier and sunnier weather, and there could be a spell of very warm weather too.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 16 August

Drier for a time but further unsettled weather to

The first full week of August should bring a bit of a break to the unsettled weather, but it looks to be only a temporary break with the weather turning more unsettled again heading towards mid-month. We currently don't see any sustained dry, sunny weather in August. Whilst low pressure systems are expected to be a major feature of the weather at the end of July and start of August, there are indications that as we move a little further into August, low pressure will become less of an influence. The UK should become less unsettled and there will be a better chance of drier, sunnier and warmer weather. However, we expect a return to more unsettled weather for the middle of the month.

Low pressure systems are again expected to track close to or over the UK, with the weather likely to be wetter, windier and cooler again. As with the end of July, there will be the chance of high pressure ridging up from the south to bring some spells of warmer and more settled weather to the UK. The south is most favoured to see any of this drier and warmer weather.
Whist confidence in the forecast has generally increased a little since our last update, we are still keeping a close eye on developments in the tropical Atlantic. Whilst it has been relatively quiet here in the last couple of weeks, there are still indications that this will be an active hurricane season. Tropical storms and hurricanes tend to make forecasting more than a week or two ahead a tricky job. That means that there is the chance that the forecast for the middle of August could change a fair bit over the next week or so.

Further ahead

Will the forecast for August still lack any sustained dry and sunny periods or will a tropical storm intervene?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable month of weather

_________________________________

Saturday 25 July – Sunday 2 August

Unsettled at first, then potentially hot for some

This weekend, much of the UK will be breezy with showers and some longer outbreaks of rain. One or two thunderstorms are possible, too, most likely during Saturday afternoon. However, there will be sunnier interludes as well, with the best of these during Sunday. Temperatures mostly near to the average although staying cool in the northwest.

The unsettled theme will continue into the early part of next week. Many areas will see further showers or longer outbreaks of rain with brisk winds at times. Staying cool for many, too, although the south-east may tap into some warmth at times.

A change in weather then appears likely from around Wednesday to Friday as an area of high pressure crosses the country from the west. Most areas should have at least two or three drier and somewhat calmer days. We are also likely to import warmer air from the near-continent by Friday.

There is the potential for one or two significantly hotter days around Friday and Saturday. The highest probability for a mini-heatwave appears to be in the southeast, where temperature may reach around 30C for a time. However, any strong heat should not last too long. Indications are for cooler, wetter and breezier conditions to return from the west by the end of the weekend.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 9 August

Cool, wet and breezy at times

The changeable weather conditions are likely to persist into the first full week of August. Low pressure areas passing to the north are likely to bring cool, wet and breezy weather at times. Most areas should have some showers or longer outbreaks of rain. Overall, rainfall amounts are favoured to be above average in most areas with temperatures near to a little below average.However, there should also be at least one or two drier and calmer days as high pressure areas briefly move over the country. The best chance for some drier and calmer weather currently appears to be later in the week.

Monday 10 August – Sunday 23 August

Gradually becoming a little drier and warmer

The changeable weather pattern looks like continuing into mid-August. We are likely to see further rain at times with occasionally brisk winds. However, transient high pressure ridges should also bring some drier, calmer and warmer days. Indications are that the drier and warmer days should become a little more numerous as we enter the second half of August. This is because we should see the track of low pressure areas lifting a little further away to the north of the UK. Rainfall amounts look like falling nearer average for many after mid-month and perhaps below-average over southern Britain.

However, confidence in the forecast becomes rather low as well after mid-month. There is a risk that low pressure continues to track over the UK, which would lead to a somewhat wetter and breezier outlook then. There is even a slight risk of one or two ex-hurricanes or tropical storms reaching our shores later in August. If this happens, it would bring the potential for one or two strong wind events in the north-west. However, this appears more of a risk as we enter autumn.

Further ahead

A changeable month of weather appears most likely through August. We will take another look to see if there are still signs of drier and warmer weather through the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Turnedoutniceagain]

"Battered" 

BBC Weather: Carol Kirkwood warns of gale force winds battering UK ahead of new heatwave | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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BBC Weather forecaster Carol Kirkwood warned Britons will suffer a wet and windy start to this week before high pressure will take control bringing sunshine and...

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable month of weather. Wettest in the north.

_________________________________

Wednesday 29 July – Sunday 2 August

Briefly hot, then fresher again this weekend.

Temperatures are set to rise through the next few days as we import very warm air from the near-continent. Much of England and Wales will have a lot of dry weather until Friday.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will have some fairly widespread rain though, for a time on Wednesday night, into Thursday. Temperatures are set to peak on Friday. Locally mid-30s Celsius in the south-eastern quarter of England.

Temperatures are set to peak nearer the mid-20s Celsius in the north and west of the UK. However, this heat will not last for too long as a cold front makes its way in from the Atlantic. Ahead of this cold front, one or two heavy showers or thunderstorms are possible late on Friday but these look like being 'hit and miss'. This weekend will then be fresher for most with brisk westerly winds at times. There is likely to be a scattering of showers, too; these will be most frequent in the west and northwest of the UK. However, most places should also see sunny intervals.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 9 August

Cool, wet and breezy at times

There are changeable weather conditions most likely next week. Low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic will bring unsettled weather at times. Through the early to middle part of next week, most of the UK is likely to see rain or showers at times. Occasionally brisk winds can be expected, too. The northern half of the UK is likely to be often cool. Variable temperatures are likely in the south. Late next week, there are signs of a high pressure ridge extending over parts of England and Wales. Therefore, rainfall amounts should decrease here, perhaps with somewhat calmer and warmer weather developing. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland are favoured to see further showers or rain at times with temperatures near average.

Monday 10 August – Sunday 23 August

Changeable weather for most. Wettest in the north.

A changeable weather pattern looks to continue into mid-August. We are likely to see further rain at times with occasionally brisk winds. This is because low pressure areas appear likely to track from the Atlantic towards, or near, northern parts of the UK. However, transient high pressure ridges should also bring some drier, calmer and warmer days for most areas. Any lengthier periods of dry weather are likely to be over southern and south-east England. Overall, England and Wales are expected to see near-average rainfall for the time of year. Scotland and Northern Ireland are more likely to have above-average rainfall. Confidence in the forecast is rather low by mid-August.

There does appear to be a risk that low pressure areas track further south than expected, which would bring above-average rain to the south instead. There is also a chance that we see one or two ex-tropical storms or hurricanes reaching near our shores through the month. This is because it has been a particularly active hurricane season in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The remnants of hurricanes would bring the risk of one or two very wet and windy days of weather, particularly for the far north-west of the UK. However, these features could also bring one or two short-lived spells of strong tropical warmth to the UK as well.

Further ahead

A changeable month of weather still appears most likely. We will take a look at whether we can be more confident with the forecast details from mid-August.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[syed2878]

Hi folks interesting article From the MetOffice I don't know if any of you read it? If you haven't then here is the piece.

Predicting the North Atlantic climate is a step closer following a major scientific breakthrough.

 

A?team of scientists, led by the Met Office, has?achieved a scientific breakthrough allowing the longer-term prediction of?North Atlantic pressure?patterns,?the key?driving force?behind?winter weather?in Europe?and eastern North America.?

 

Published in Nature, the study analysed six decades of?climate?model?data and suggests decadal variations in North Atlantic atmospheric pressure patterns (known as?the?North Atlantic Oscillation)?are?highly predictable,?enabling advanced warning of whether winters in the coming decade are?likely?to be stormy, warm?and wet?or?calm,?cold?and dry.?

 

However, the study revealed that this predictable signal is much smaller than it should be in current climate models. Hence 100 times more ensemble members are required to extract it, and additional steps are needed to balance the effects of winds and greenhouse gases. The team?showed that, by taking these deficiencies into account, skilful predictions of extreme European?winter decades are possible.?

 

Lead author?Dr Doug Smith, who heads decadal climate prediction research and development at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “The message from this study is double-edged: climate is much more predictable than we previously thought,?but there is a clear need to improve how models simulate regional changes.”?

 

Advance warning of severe winter weather?is?imperative to those?who?make risk-based decisions over longer timescales.??For example, better forecasts?can help the Environment Agency plan water management and flood defences, insurance companies plan for the changing risks, the energy sector to mitigate against potential blackouts and surges, and airports plan?for potential disruption.?

 

Improving model simulations?will enhance the UK’s response, resilience and security against the effects of?extreme weather and?climate change – influencing future policy decisions to protect people’s lives, property and infrastructure.?????

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/nao-predictability-paper

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A hot spell likely, but low pressure threatens

_________________________________

Saturday 1 August – Sunday 9 August

An unsettled few days; turning hot again later

After Friday's brief hot weather, a cold front tracking eastwards across the country will introduce less hot air overhead, bringing temperatures closer to the seasonal norm over the weekend. There will be showers too, particularly across central and northern England on Saturday afternoon. Northern Ireland will see showers on Saturday evening and Sunday. Meanwhile, Scotland will only showers on Sunday. On Tuesday, an area of low pressure will approach the north of the UK, with fronts tracking across the country. Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and north Wales could see some heavy bursts of rain with gusty winds. The unsettled conditions will move over to southern England by Wednesday, before the frontal system later clears away to the east

Later in the week, from Thursday onwards, there is good a chance for a ridge of high pressure to extend in across the British Isles. A very warm air will plume up from the south bringing plenty of dry, sunny and warm weather through Friday and over the weekend. Temperatures will climb into the 30s Celsius. Later, the ridge of high pressure may end up further east over Europe. This will allow frontal system to encroach in from the Atlantic.This movement could bring a wetter and breezier weekend, particularly in the north and west.

Monday 10 August – Sunday 16 August

Dry and warm; wet spells later in the week

Following on from the previous week, the first half of the week beginning Monday 10th may see dry and warm weather persisting. This will occur if high pressure ridging in from West Europe is able to hold in place, allowing warm air to plume up from the south. However, areas of low pressure may threaten from the northwest, bringing fronts towards northwest Scotland, and perhaps Northern Ireland. In the second half of the week, there is a greater chance of low pressure tracking further south over the UK. This could bring wet and breezy weather more widely, and a return to cooler conditions. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely remain the wettest and breeziest. Whilst southeast England may hold on to the drier, warmer conditions for a longer time.

The influence of low pressure systems is not certain, though. One cause of uncertainty is the result of potential ex-tropical storms and hurricanes tracking across the Atlantic Ocean. This Atlantic Hurricane season is forecast to be very active, which can have knock-on effects on our weather here in the UK. Tropical storms can ramp-up the jet stream over the North Atlantic and bring low pressure systems towards the British Isles, but their exact track is often uncertain until a few days out.

Monday 17 August – Sunday 30 August

Wettest in the northwest, driest in the south

Through the second half of August, areas of low pressure are expected to track over Iceland and near to the north of the UK at times. With associated fronts extending across the UK, wet and breezy spells of weather look likely. Rainy periods will probably be most frequent across Northern Ireland and Scotland. Whilst England and Wales may only see fleeting spells of wet weather as fronts come and go. In fact, a strong northwest-southeast split in the weather looks probable into late-August. High pressure may ridge in from Europe to give lengthier periods of dry and warm weather over the southeast.Whilst fronts may push into the northwest to give frequent wet spells and fluctuating temperatures.

Because the UK is forecast to sit on the periphery of the two weather types mentioned above, there is considerable uncertainty to the forecast for late-August. One weather type may dominate over the other for an extended period. There is a chance that low pressure areas track further south than expected, which would bring above-average rain to the south instead.
By the same token, high pressure ridging may be more persistent and extensive over the UK, which would bring drier, warmer weather more widely across the country.

Further ahead

High pressure over Europe and low pressure to the north look set to battle it out during August. Next time we'll take another look to see if one weather type looks more favourable than the other.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[CheesepuffScott]

Tomorrow’s Star!